Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[FUMR]

But, like him or not as a person/politician, he is absolutely RIGHT in what he is saying!

[Confusious]

Originally Posted by FUMR

But, like him or not as a person/politician, he is absolutely RIGHT in what he is saying!

He is FUMR and political slants are best reserved for the Politics Hamsterwheel thread.

[Confusious]

Netanyahu Open To Providing Military Aid To Ukraine, Including 'Iron Dome' Missile Defense System.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-neta.../32251955.html

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...4fOneEtTqGVo4w

Russia's Tomsk State University has secretly created a 'mobilisation station' for its students and staff, to be activated within two hours of receiving the codeword 'Lineyka-222' ('Ruler-222') from the military enlistment office. It's the latest sign of a new mobilisation. ⬇️


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...596173312.html

[NutLoose]

I simply cannot understand the Wests intransigence against giving weapons to Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia, the politicians really need their heads banging together and to wake up and smell the coffee, that particular boat has sailed over a year ago and it isn't coming back anytime soon, the sooner they commit and throw everything into the pot, the sooner the war will be over, I just pray it isn't to late.

[Confusious]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I simply cannot understand the Wests intransigence against giving weapons to Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia, the politicians really need their heads banging together and to wake up and smell the coffee, that particular boat has sailed over a year ago and it isn't coming back anytime soon, the sooner they commit and throw everything into the pot, the sooner the war will be over, I just pray it isn't to late.

The fear is no doubt rooted with nuclear warfare. The point is though, if that is the risk now then it will always be there no matter what stage of this war or beyond it. So, get the job over and done with sooner rather than later. There was a point when I thought that sanctions were weakening Russia but recent events have disproved that. Every war reaches a point of no return and this one has arrived there. It's time for stronger support and action.

[Wokkafans]

Big beastie

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...563469313?s=20

Twitter

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/warmatters/statu...4fOneEtTqGVo4w

This is something Western European policy makers need to read.

Much discussion of Russian strategic depth and why this war isn’t necessarily over quickly.

https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/..._lessons_0.pdf

Russia’s War in Ukraine: Myths and Lessons

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I simply cannot understand the Wests intransigence against giving weapons to Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia, the politicians really need their heads banging together and to wake up and smell the coffee, that particular boat has sailed over a year ago and it isn't coming back anytime soon, the sooner they commit and throw everything into the pot, the sooner the war will be over, I just pray it isn't to late.

Your frustration is widely shared, but you speak about 'the West' as if it were unified when it clearly is not. Some of the countries in your blanket description are providing very strong support, while some are paying lip service at best. Unless Putin is stupid enough to attack a NATO country there will no response from them, and the UN and EU are ineffectual. Unless a coalition emerges that is willing to intervene the only hope is that the recently promised advanced weaponry can be operational in time to meet the expected Russian offensive.

[Confusious]

Originally Posted by ORAC

This is something Western European policy makers need to read.

Much discussion of Russian strategic depth and why this war isn’t necessarily over quickly.

https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/..._lessons_0.pdf

Russia’s War in Ukraine: Myths and Lessons

Long but very interesting read. One would hope that the Estonian Ministry of Defense will distribute the document to those who should read it.

[flash8]

Originally Posted by ORAC

This is something Western European policy makers need to read.

Much discussion of Russian strategic depth and why this war isn’t necessarily over quickly.

https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/..._lessons_0.pdf

Russia’s War in Ukraine: Myths and Lessons

Thankyou Orac, was quite an interesting read and raises some interesting points.

[Geriaviator]

Thanks ORAC. This is fascinating and all too believable, though I doubt if our politicians will heed one word of it. Posturing and forthcoming elections are more important, aren't they, as we pile duties from flood relief, vaccine distribution and lately strike-breaking on our fine Servicemen while housing them in little better than pigsties. I'm glad I am growing old ...

[uxb99]

What happens next year when grain reserves have exhausted and Ukraine no longer has the capacity to replenish?

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj

Err…yes? That was exactly the point I made and I don’t understand your reply - sorry.

I know, as does everyone, that there have been stray missiles and deliberate attacks, but my statement was that there will be one, at some point, THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. The West gas shrugged off everything so far because it does not fit the plan.

The West have shown that we are terrified of Putin. We are like the puppy that is brought into a new home where an old dog already lives. We run around and display our energy and ability, but never near him, in case he bites. We stay at a distance, but as confidence grows, we slowly get closer, pushing the boundaries but always mindful of not going do far as to trigger a reaction…
Ukraine is fighting for not only it’s existence, but also for ours. The time to go all in was months ago, but Western governments want Russias military worn down at the cost of Ukrainian blood, before they will contemplate allowing Ukraine to win.

HIMARS .. no way…until we knew it was essential to prevent Ukraine losing. Then given.

Tanks…no way…until we knew it was essential to stop Ukraine losing. Then given.

Fighters…you get the idea.

Encouraging, except for always being 6+ months late.

[bugged on the right]

I think Ukraine had better win the war, all the Western technology falling into Russian hands could be very helpful to them.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by bugged on the right

I think Ukraine had better win the war, all the Western technology falling into Russian hands could be very helpful to them.

Well, so far the only bits they will have retrieved are (almost exclusively) exploded missiles. I'm unsure if that will help. Looking forward there are the IFV's and tanks - mostly older versions - but the equipment of most modern communication systems is unknown. All the Leopard tanks are currently two or three versions back from the latest.

[t43562]

Originally Posted by bugged on the right

I think Ukraine had better win the war, all the Western technology falling into Russian hands could be very helpful to them.

They don't seem to know how to use technology. It's all threats and atrocities and meat grinding. I was watching an interesting video about the East German attempt to create a semiconductor industry and the gigantic sums wasted on it. With all the spying and stealing they could do they remained light-years behind. A lot of these things just cannot be done without whole industries filled with skilled people.

[RatherBeFlying]

Definitely the Ukrainians need longer range precision weapons to target RF assets on the Ukrainian side of the border. Really there should be no railway bridges standing in RF controlled areas of Ukraine – including the Kerch bridge.

These bridges need to be knocked down and kept down, as of many yesterdays.

[Beamr]

Ukrainian tank crews are already in Germany and Poland on their conversion training to Leopards

Training expected to last 6 weeks.

First Leopards to be in Ukraine by end of March, as well as IFV's such as Bradleys.

It all sounds like first western equipped armored battalion will be in action by end of March.

https://www.ft.com/content/f7704b8d-...8-6b188607844f

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Ukrainian tank crews are already in Germany and Poland on their conversion training to Leopards
Training expected to last 6 weeks.
First Leopards to be in Ukraine by end of March, as well as IFV's such as Bradleys.
It all sounds like first western equipped armoured battalion will be in action by end of March.

There is much speculation that Russia is planning a major offensive in late February. I guess the question is whether Ukraine has the ability to hold them back until the new tanks arrive. On past evidence maybe they do.