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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 3rd Apr 2022, 14:43
  #3901 (permalink)  
 
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I am in total agreement with Nutloose. Thinking of all the wars we got involved in over the last 40 years, and for much less evidence or cause or national interest, there stands no reason to deny UKR all the aid they need, of whatever kind. Especially giving stuff ( trade).

I cannot understand the reluctance to face up to Pootins nuclear blackmail, it cannot stand, or will set a tone for the next 50 years of international 'nuclear gunboat' diplomacy and encourage proliferation in many countries.

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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 15:34
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Originally Posted by Usertim
I am in total agreement with Nutloose. Thinking of all the wars we got involved in over the last 40 years, and for much less evidence or cause or national interest, there stands no reason to deny UKR all the aid they need, of whatever kind. Especially giving stuff ( trade).

I cannot understand the reluctance to face up to Pootins nuclear blackmail, it cannot stand, or will set a tone for the next 50 years of international 'nuclear gunboat' diplomacy and encourage proliferation in many countries.
Agreement here too. As the Russian forces draw back from Kyiv and Mariupol, Ukraine should be allowed to request foreign military assistance to secure those areas, deliver humanitarian aid, begin clearing up. This would free up their own forces to chase the Russians out of other areas, and out of the country. Any foreign troops helping Ukraine would have the right of self defence in case of Russian attack.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 15:38
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Originally Posted by Usertim
I
I cannot understand the reluctance to face up to Pootins nuclear blackmail, it cannot stand, or will set a tone for the next 50 years of international 'nuclear gunboat' diplomacy and encourage proliferation in many countries.
Even if you don't agree, surely it's easy to understand- there is a significant worry that this passes the nuclear threshold because of Putin's perceived instability. That apart, it would breach the NATO treaty which would inevitably lead to open conflict between members and give comfort to the Russians. It could lead to the break-up of the alliance;
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 16:27
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Today we have all seen the pictures and read the reports from Bucha: mass graves of civilians definitely dug with excavators and then filled with gravel, pink jacket sleeves still sticking out. Civilians with hands tied behind their backs and executed with a bullet in the back of the heads. Women raped and mutilated, HRW has confirmed evidence of a case in which a russian soldier raped a woman and cut her face.
Families shot dead in their cars and set on fire.

This is one village, this is just the beginning. As more villages are liberated the more we will learn of atrocities by russian troops. The entire northern border and the majority of Black sea coast has been under russian command for five weeks. We will see more and more eyewitness accounts and have confirmed evidence of war crimes as time goes by.

The Russian doctrine is: bomb everything into rubble, rape everyone and kill em all. They dont care if its children or adults, civilian or soldier.

The west must do everything in its power to stop the madness and prevent the Russians from taking this any further. And by that I mean not a step further in Ukraine, not to Kazakhstan which has announced it will not be used to circumvene the sanctions towards Russia. Not to Poland nor the Baltics. Not to Finland or Sweden.

The Russian people are living in a bubble. In the Russian medias there isn't a single word of Russian troops being in Kiev area. Not a word. There is sh*tloads of news how Russian troops are demining Donbass and arresting nazis in Mariupol. From other areas: absolutely nothing. I've spent quite some time reading TASS, RG, Gazeta, Izvestija, Pravda, and the amount of propaganda is making one mad. Russian soldier is good, Russian soldier is pure, Russian soldier is treating the bloodthirsty nazis with respect even though they are bloodthirsty nazis. Russian soldiers are saving thd women and children from the nazis and providing them milk and cookies.

The Russians do not know what is happening until the war is on their home yard. Hopefully we'll get to call Pootin as Meyer one day.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 17:17
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We have great Evil virtually on our doorstep.

The only thing necessary for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing.

The West is doing little more than virtue signalling and, I suspect, will revert to a sort of normality with Russia as soon as it thinks a decent interval has passed.
To a small degree I exempt the UK, which seems to be more pugnacious than most, but the West has the means of stopping this wickedness and it's vested interests are putting the brake on.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 17:37
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Agreed, but how? Do we (the civilised World) jack up the nuclear threat? Engage on the ground or in the air or at sea? I share the expressions of shock and horror at what we are seeing … that the Russian people don’t, of course. Our civilised and safe options are few.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 18:06
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The only thing necessary for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing
This saying is often used to motivate those who think of themselves as good. John F Kennedy (who knew a few things) said of it :

the thing that strikes you about this saying, on a momentís reflection, is how little sense it makes: the silence of good men isnít the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil. The persons advancing the evil, whether in command or the rank-and-file, must be strong and determined; and the lukewarm must be either cowed into submission or willing to go along because the evil seems to prosper
So how do we stop the perpetrators from being strong and determined and show that evil does not prosper?
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 18:25
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I look on the situation like we are standing at the fence of Auschwitz with the means to stop the Genocide within that fence, but instead we are standing by and watching it happen.

It sickens me to think the West has come to this, we are being held to ransom by a bunch of thugs, we all decry the Russians military and their incompetence, but at the end of the day they are systematically destroying a Country, it’s culture and it future generations, while we standby and let it happen.

By allowing this to happen the West is already showing that they are weaker and are sending signals to Russia that whenever they wish to occupy a Country the West will stand back and let it happen.

Operating in the Ukraine at their behest is not invading a country, tell me WTF is the difference to operating in Syria .
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 18:26
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Well that we are already doing. I hope that in the coming months Russian economy will plummet down the GDP table ( already they are #11). Maybe When they drop below Iran #17 they will get some kind of message.

They are only a world power these days because of their nukes, they cannot be allowed to use that as any leverage.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 18:35
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Originally Posted by MPN11
Agreed, but how? Do we (the civilised World) jack up the nuclear threat? Engage on the ground or in the air or at sea? I share the expressions of shock and horror at what we are seeing … that the Russian people don’t, of course. Our civilised and safe options are few.
Let me suggest an escalation in Western response that I have not seen put forwards before. The next bit is not a digression.

On another thread someone has asked what the post-war implications might be for the Russian armed forces, and has suggested that all three have failed significantly. I would actual demur slightly from their hypothesis that all three have performed equally badly. In general terms the Russian Navy has delivered on its primary objectives of 1) blockade Black Sea and Sea of Azov; 2) bombardment of shore from sea, 3) poised amphibious forces, some unopposed landings; 4) preservation of Russian fleet (mostly) despite many opportunities for major fleet losses (so far they have only lost one sunk LST, two damaged smaller amphibs, one damaged patrol vessel ..... not so bad given Russian aviation and army losses).

The Russians have been able to do all this because the Ukraine does not have a fleet that could do anything (and the small bit that it had was sunk/scuttled in the first few days), and the Ukraine does not have land-launched anti-ship long/medium range guided missiles. The Ukraine got one good shot at a Russian patrol vessel using unguiided MLRS and since then the Russians have carefully stayed out of range of that. The Ukraine's indigenously developed anti-ship missiles (Neptunes) had not been delivered prior to the war, only the launcher vehicles (TELs). The Ukraine has to prioritise its few aviation assets either for the air war, or for anti-ground missions.

So where am I going with this ?

1. Give the Ukraine Longer range anti-ship missiles out of stocks of any Western nation willing. Give them the means to obtain targetting data. Give them the means to run the comms to mesh that together. Obviously that cannot be using NATO assets or active western military assets. So instead that could be near real-time satellite data (Maxar or similar, though Maxar itself is under new ownership) plus unblockable real-time comms (Starlink). I think the Maxar revisit rate is good enough to get targetting solutions with a little bit of help from other sources. The missiles & launchers will need to be either land-launched Harpoon or Exocet, or aviation-launched Hellfire or similar shorter range anti-ship - the Switchblade 600 would just about do given the observed Russian naval loitering boxes. The Switchblade solution would be the easiest to deliver even if it was the least effective in a naval scenario. Some of the smaller ATGMs are light enough to mount on the bigger drones that folk are getting creative with. Even if such attacks were not successful they would have the benefit of preventing the Russian navy from full freedom of action.

2. Break the blockade. Unfortunately because of the Montreux Convention the main western navies cannot just rock up and protect their nation-flagged fleet in the normal way using their grey funnel lines. And it is quite a big ask to expect Romania or Bulgaria or Turkey to do this. So this would require some creative thinking by the West to utilise existing civil shipping in the Black Sea to break the blockade. I think there are varieties on the theme of putting Western armed forces onto their flagged shipping (or flags under their protection) and using the civilian vessels to break the blockade. For example reflag UKR merchant fleet to UK, then put armed parties on the vessels. Being realistic one would need to identify vessels that could take helicopters on, then one has decent enough assets to call the bluff. As many of the issues here are normal law of the sea/Montreux Convention legal ones, as military (naval) issues but of course are for political impact. Once broken it becomes possible to move heavy cargo into Odessa more easily.

3. .... and of course all the other more obvious stuff that everyone else is saying.

Just a thought that others may wish to biite on.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 19:07
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Cut the gas. Today.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 19:27
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Cut the gas. Today.
?? sorry what?
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 19:33
  #3913 (permalink)  

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Stop using RF gas and oil. Same as the Baltic states did yesterday, completely.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 19:37
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Originally Posted by Usertim
They are only a world power these days because of their nukes, they cannot be allowed to use that as any leverage.
Once again all I read are wishful words as with your last post. State exactly what you feel other states need to do and what risks are linked to those actions
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 19:46
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
1. Give the Ukraine Longer range anti-ship missiles out of stocks of any Western nation willing. Give them the means to obtain targetting data. Give them the means to run the comms to mesh that together. Obviously that cannot be using NATO assets or active western military assets. So instead that could be near real-time satellite data (Maxar or similar, though Maxar itself is under new ownership) plus unblockable real-time comms (Starlink). I think the Maxar revisit rate is good enough to get targetting solutions with a little bit of help from other sources. The missiles & launchers will need to be either land-launched Harpoonx .
Is there such a thing as land-launched Harpoon ? I couldn't find it on wiki. Other than that I certainly agree that medium/long-range anti-ship missiles could well give Putin another nasty surprise and should be supplied;

Last edited by T28B; 3rd Apr 2022 at 20:14. Reason: fix quote
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 19:52
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
Stop using RF gas and oil. Same as the Baltic states did yesterday, completely.
Why don't you as simply say "stop the war"...
As if RF gas and oil can be replaced overnight.... Refineries and the associated logistic infrastructure are build with a specific crude mix in mind, and the RF crude oil is an important - not so easy replaceable - component of this mix in many EU refineries. And flows of RF finished oil products are also an important part of the oil import/export balance in EU. We will face structural shortages of diesel (possibly also JA1?) in the EU if we cut off RF exports. So defending the EU with a future structural shortage in diesel, JA1, etc?? We have been conned by our leaders into being much to dependent on RF fossil energy from a military & economical strategic point of view...
Edit: and the Baltics that made this decision, were preparing this aleady looooong time before the war...
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 20:00
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Is there such a thing as land-launched Harpoon ?
No black arms trade market or rogue states that are willing to trade (with the CIA or similar) some Chinese or even better ex-Soviet built ones? Diplomatically a better option to smash them with something other than "Made in the USA". Maybe you'll find some older Ukrainians that were trained on ex-Soviet anti-naval warfare.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 20:09
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
Let me suggest an escalation in Western response that I have not seen put forwards before. The next bit is not a digression.

On another thread someone has asked what the post-war implications might be for the Russian armed forces, and has suggested that all three have failed significantly. I would actual demur slightly from their hypothesis that all three have performed equally badly. In general terms the Russian Navy has delivered on its primary objectives of 1) blockade Black Sea and Sea of Azov; 2) bombardment of shore from sea, 3) poised amphibious forces, some unopposed landings; 4) preservation of Russian fleet (mostly) despite many opportunities for major fleet losses (so far they have only lost one sunk LST, two damaged smaller amphibs, one damaged patrol vessel ..... not so bad given Russian aviation and army losses).

The Russians have been able to do all this because the Ukraine does not have a fleet that could do anything (and the small bit that it had was sunk/scuttled in the first few days), and the Ukraine does not have land-launched anti-ship long/medium range guided missiles. The Ukraine got one good shot at a Russian patrol vessel using unguiided MLRS and since then the Russians have carefully stayed out of range of that. The Ukraine's indigenously developed anti-ship missiles (Neptunes) had not been delivered prior to the war, only the launcher vehicles (TELs). The Ukraine has to prioritise its few aviation assets either for the air war, or for anti-ground missions.

So where am I going with this ?

1. Give the Ukraine Longer range anti-ship missiles out of stocks of any Western nation willing. Give them the means to obtain targetting data. Give them the means to run the comms to mesh that together. Obviously that cannot be using NATO assets or active western military assets. So instead that could be near real-time satellite data (Maxar or similar, though Maxar itself is under new ownership) plus unblockable real-time comms (Starlink). I think the Maxar revisit rate is good enough to get targetting solutions with a little bit of help from other sources. The missiles & launchers will need to be either land-launched Harpoon or Exocet, or aviation-launched Hellfire or similar shorter range anti-ship - the Switchblade 600 would just about do given the observed Russian naval loitering boxes. The Switchblade solution would be the easiest to deliver even if it was the least effective in a naval scenario. Some of the smaller ATGMs are light enough to mount on the bigger drones that folk are getting creative with. Even if such attacks were not successful they would have the benefit of preventing the Russian navy from full freedom of action.

2. Break the blockade. Unfortunately because of the Montreux Convention the main western navies cannot just rock up and protect their nation-flagged fleet in the normal way using their grey funnel lines. And it is quite a big ask to expect Romania or Bulgaria or Turkey to do this. So this would require some creative thinking by the West to utilise existing civil shipping in the Black Sea to break the blockade. I think there are varieties on the theme of putting Western armed forces onto their flagged shipping (or flags under their protection) and using the civilian vessels to break the blockade. For example reflag UKR merchant fleet to UK, then put armed parties on the vessels. Being realistic one would need to identify vessels that could take helicopters on, then one has decent enough assets to call the bluff. As many of the issues here are normal law of the sea/Montreux Convention legal ones, as military (naval) issues but of course are for political impact. Once broken it becomes possible to move heavy cargo into Odessa more easily.

3. .... and of course all the other more obvious stuff that everyone else is saying.

Just a thought that others may wish to biite on.
Give the Ukrainians a butt load of speed boats, fit some form of Radar Warning Receiver on them all. Fit Chaff, flare (to blind IR sensors) and Smoke dispensers / Generators on all of them. Fit NVS. Carry various forms of ATGM (Javelin a must) and some of the boats at the rear have some form of remote control and a large bomb on board. Go Boghammer to the max on anything that can launch a cruise missile.

Last edited by MAINJAFAD; 3rd Apr 2022 at 21:26.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 20:38
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Originally Posted by MAINJAFAD
Give the Ukrainian a butt load of speed boats, fit some form of Radar Warning Receiver on them all. Fit Chaff, flare (to blind IR sensors) and Smoke dispensers / Generators on all of them. Fit NVS. Carry various forms of ATGM (Javelin a must) and some of the boats at the rear have some form of remote control and a large bomb on board. Go Boghammer to the max on anything that can launch a cruise missile.
That's a pretty good idea. I don't know if it's something traditional military would consider.
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Old 3rd Apr 2022, 20:41
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Boris has already said he wants to provide anti ship missiles.

how about?

https://www.mbda-systems.com/product...​​

https://twitter.com/hashtag/RFNKorol...=hashtag_click
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