Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Another being reported:
❌Commander Denis Kurilo, commander of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (military unit 08275, Pechenga), was liquidated.
🌎 News | World | Politics
❌Commander Denis Kurilo, commander of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (military unit 08275, Pechenga), was liquidated.
🌎 News | World | Politics
Last edited by T28B; 29th Mar 2022 at 14:48. Reason: fix quote
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
FROM CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-22/index.html
Moscow says it will “drastically reduce military activity” on two fronts — Kyiv and Chernihiv — according to the Russian Ministry of Defense Telegram channel.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine earlier claimed “certain units” of Russia’s military are withdrawing from battlefronts in the capital, Kyiv, and from the northern city of Chernihiv.
“The Russian enemy did not meet the goal of its offensive operation,” it said in an official Facebook update Tuesday.
However, it warned of a “high risk” of Russian troops attacking military and civilian infrastructure. The Russian military, it claimed, is struggling to reinforce and rotate in new soldiers, due to the “refusal of personnel to participate in the so-called special operation,” and are “not able to staff even one battalion-tactical group.”
In the fifth week of the Russian invasion, the “heroic” Ukrainian resistance is “conducting a defence operation in the eastern, southeastern and northeastern directions, restrains the enemy in all directions, in some directions - displaces the enemy,” it said.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-22/index.html
Russia says it will "drastically reduce" military assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv
From Daria MarkinaMoscow says it will “drastically reduce military activity” on two fronts — Kyiv and Chernihiv — according to the Russian Ministry of Defense Telegram channel.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine earlier claimed “certain units” of Russia’s military are withdrawing from battlefronts in the capital, Kyiv, and from the northern city of Chernihiv.
“The Russian enemy did not meet the goal of its offensive operation,” it said in an official Facebook update Tuesday.
However, it warned of a “high risk” of Russian troops attacking military and civilian infrastructure. The Russian military, it claimed, is struggling to reinforce and rotate in new soldiers, due to the “refusal of personnel to participate in the so-called special operation,” and are “not able to staff even one battalion-tactical group.”
In the fifth week of the Russian invasion, the “heroic” Ukrainian resistance is “conducting a defence operation in the eastern, southeastern and northeastern directions, restrains the enemy in all directions, in some directions - displaces the enemy,” it said.
Haven't they done exactly the opposite of what they announced and promised every time until now? Let's wait for some visible retreat first.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force
Presumably they will see if they just withdraw 10km, or back over their border, and act accordingly.
Everything else apart, both the May 9th Red Square Victory parade and also the beginning of the induction of the new class of conscripts are at hand, so you would expect more than usual redeployments at this time;
To be honest I'll believe they're withdrawing only when there's incontrovertible evidence on the ground, and even then...
ACW342
Yes, but it's rather odd - on FlightRadar they don't seem to know about Fairford, where the Buffies are detached. They said one of the two had departed Kemble (now Cotswold) and the other Brize Norton.
No, they both came from Fairford - though I'd be interested to see a Buffie taking off from Cotswold (Or landing, come to that...) 🤔
airsound
...cousins are really trailing their coats today, F15 and two B52s,
No, they both came from Fairford - though I'd be interested to see a Buffie taking off from Cotswold (Or landing, come to that...) 🤔
airsound
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Often in Jersey, but mainly in the past.
Age: 79
Posts: 7,812
Received 137 Likes
on
64 Posts
My take on the “withdrawal” is for RU to cut their losses and regroup to secure the Donbas and the south coast ports. Thus shifting to centre of gravity toward what Vlad really has as a priority.
However, no doubt lies and maskirovka will make my prognosis further dribblings on an elderly armchair.
However, no doubt lies and maskirovka will make my prognosis further dribblings on an elderly armchair.
Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
More on the bunkers available
https://www.nti.org/analysis/article...t-nuclear-war/
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...lmost-complete
The United States and Russian Federation are spending billions of dollars to maintain these facilities, and they are enormous in size. Each site has miles of tunnels under hundreds of feet of earth and rock. They have room for thousands of officials. A leaked DIA report about Russia’s growing emphasis on nuclear bunkers reportedly states that the two bunkers under Moscow alone could accommodate 10,000 people. [12] The same report asserts, “Highly effective life-support systems may permit independent operations for many months following a nuclear attack.” [13] These include power plants, water reservoirs and air filters to allow the occupants to continue their duties while Americans and Russians aboveground die in massive and excruciating numbers. Still, the statistics do not begin to convey the enormity of this enterprise.
https://www.nti.org/analysis/article...t-nuclear-war/
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...lmost-complete
Russian Sites
Russia, too, has its own network of deep underground sites. In 2016, there were reports of Russia modernizing and expanding dozens of these sites.- A deep underground facility beneath the Kremlin. [6]
- According to a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, there is an “enormous underground leadership bunker adjacent to Moscow State University … intended for the national command authority in wartime.” [7] This is known as the Ramenki Underground facility, and it is reportedly connected to the Kremlin by a VIP subway, popularly called Metro-2.
- The underground subway reportedly travels further out to at least two extra-urban underground bunkers, one near Voronovo and another near Sharapovo. [8]
- Far outside of Moscow, there is a large underground command center near Kosvinsky that is said to be a survivable command post roughly comparable to Raven Rock. [9]
The United States and Russian Federation are spending billions of dollars to maintain these facilities, and they are enormous in size. Each site has miles of tunnels under hundreds of feet of earth and rock. They have room for thousands of officials. A leaked DIA report about Russia’s growing emphasis on nuclear bunkers reportedly states that the two bunkers under Moscow alone could accommodate 10,000 people. [12] The same report asserts, “Highly effective life-support systems may permit independent operations for many months following a nuclear attack.” [13] These include power plants, water reservoirs and air filters to allow the occupants to continue their duties while Americans and Russians aboveground die in massive and excruciating numbers. Still, the statistics do not begin to convey the enormity of this enterprise.
Given that they have done exactly the opposite to what they have said so far, this statement released today caught my eye:
'No one is thinking about using nuclear weapons', Kremlin says
Russia has sought to allay fears it is considering the use of nuclear weapons.Since the outbreak of war on 24 February, there have been concerns over Russia's intentions after Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on high alert.
However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today told the American broadcaster PBS "no one" was thinking about using nuclear weapons.
Asked whether Mr Putin had previously suggested he would use nuclear weapons if a third party got involved in the conflict in Ukraine, Mr Peskov said: "No. I don’t think so.
"But he was quite bold in saying do not interfere, if you do, we have all the possibilities to prevent that and to punish all those who are going to interfere."
The Kremlin spokesman went on to say: "No one is thinking about using… even about the idea of using nuclear weapons."
Last edited by macmp419; 29th Mar 2022 at 15:18.
In all their paranoia I wouldn't rule out that Putin is concerned about a (conventional) 'decapitation strike' against himself (which is ridiculous but I think he lost touch with reality quite some time ago).
Sad thing is, the monster is calling all the shots, even from a relative position of weakness, and the west is only deciding to react or not. How can the west gain the initiative? His strength is his lack of inhibition way beyond what what decent people would dare. Ukraine’s strength is laudable courage, perseverance and resolve in the face of an existential threat. When is the west going to show some strength?
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
I read a thread somewhere where it was put across that Putin isolated in his bunker and ignoring the tragedy being inflicted on his own people, may find lower rank officials start to take day to day decisions to keep the country running and in effect cutting Putin, cowering in his little bunker out of the loop, which is effectively wresting power from him due to his self isolation.
You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.
You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.
I read a thread somewhere where it was put across that Putin isolated in his bunker and ignoring the tragedy being inflicted on his own people, may find lower rank officials start to take day to day decisions to keep the country running and in effect cutting Putin, cowering in his little bunker out of the loop, which is effectively wresting power from him due to his self isolation.
You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.
You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.
CG
There are a lot of soundings at the moment in relation to Eastern Ukraine and the possibility that Kiev Government will look to conduct a major attack on this area.
In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.
Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.
Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.
Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.
Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.
Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.
So questions are
Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?
At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.
Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.
In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.
Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.
Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.
Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.
Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.
Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.
So questions are
Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?
At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.
Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
Russian helicopter being taken out.
Some explanation regarding "soldiers shooting POWs to legs":
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,021
Received 2,900 Likes
on
1,242 Posts
And another heli