Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Reports circulating of a renewed Russian push north and west of Kyiv. Intriguing to see whether this is a genuine push with fresh troops and equipment, an attempt to prevent encirclement, a blocking move to cover a withdrawal of forces, or something else.
Incidentally - or coincidentally - the Ukrainians had another curfew in force in the city yesterday. Maybe they knew something was up?
Incidentally - or coincidentally - the Ukrainians had another curfew in force in the city yesterday. Maybe they knew something was up?
Never mind reprint of an attempt of almost a week ago
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Dead pan this is Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey at about 4:40
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751
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I know I'm being deliberately simplistic here, but a "cessation of hostilities" is probably easily achieved by Russia simply announcing that it's starting to withdraw from Ukraine.
Then the only risk is retaliation as they withdraw, that's where a ceasefire can come into play.
Based on what's happened so far I feel a reasonable conclusion is that any discussion about a ceasefire is only about consolidating/improving the Russian position
It's only a few weeks ago the world was being told there's no invasion of Ukraine intended and the troop movements were just exercises.
Then the only risk is retaliation as they withdraw, that's where a ceasefire can come into play.
Based on what's happened so far I feel a reasonable conclusion is that any discussion about a ceasefire is only about consolidating/improving the Russian position
It's only a few weeks ago the world was being told there's no invasion of Ukraine intended and the troop movements were just exercises.
They would have to take into account that it could allow faster re-supply from the West also, although I have no idea if supply convoys are being attacked;
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They could always do a Special Withdrawal
Dead pan this is Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey at about 4:40
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751
You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks.
The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented.
Don't disagree with the General in terms of "get them some good stuff to fight with" but I do disagree that the Abrams tank is for this situation the correct answer.
You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks.
The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented.
You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks.
The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented.
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Who are Bellingcat? as this seems serious
The Wall Street journal is running it too
The Wall Street journal is running it too
Last edited by NutLoose; 28th Mar 2022 at 15:55.
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I did wonder and mention this, it seems it was correct.
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Nutty - bit surprised that someone as clearly able to source lots of different sources as you are has to ask who Bellingcat is!
For my money, they (and their founder Elliot Higgins) are amongst the best and most reliable open source investigators around.
Have a look at http://www.bellingcat.com/about/
In there is an account of their two most famous investigations, including this:
And, of course there is also much about more current stuff, including Ukraine, Syria, etc
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airsound
For my money, they (and their founder Elliot Higgins) are amongst the best and most reliable open source investigators around.
Have a look at http://www.bellingcat.com/about/
In there is an account of their two most famous investigations, including this:
In July 2014, MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine. Over the next four years Bellingcat discovered key information about the downing of MH17, including tracking the missile launcher that shot down MH17 from its base in Russia to Ukraine, locating the field where the missile was launched from, and identifying a number of suspects involved with the incident. Bellingcat identified that the Russian military was involved years before it was confirmed by European officials.
After the poisoning of MI6 double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in March 2018, Bellingcat has been able to unmask three suspects that we’ve identified as high-ranking Russian military intelligence officers. In October 2018, our researchers appeared at a press briefing at the House of Commons to detail findings about two of the suspects, which supported Britain’s assertion that Moscow had been behind the nerve agent attack. Our investigation into the attacks, which is ongoing, continues to receive significant global attention, from media outlets and governments alike.
After the poisoning of MI6 double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in March 2018, Bellingcat has been able to unmask three suspects that we’ve identified as high-ranking Russian military intelligence officers. In October 2018, our researchers appeared at a press briefing at the House of Commons to detail findings about two of the suspects, which supported Britain’s assertion that Moscow had been behind the nerve agent attack. Our investigation into the attacks, which is ongoing, continues to receive significant global attention, from media outlets and governments alike.
Add their fortnightly newsletter to your email!
airsound
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Also, how would you get tanks to the Ukrainians any more? You couldn't air-, rail- or sealift them in, and you couldn't park them at the border for Ukrainian crews to collect? Switchblade, NLAW, etc can be surreptitiously transported in the back of trucks, car boots, etc.
Great idea!
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I believe its called plausible deniability 
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Xi ... looks after his, and China's, Interests.
Putin ... looks after his personal glorification, and stuffs the proletariat..
Two dictators with different perspectives.
Putin ... looks after his personal glorification, and stuffs the proletariat..
Two dictators with different perspectives.
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I see there are reports of heavy fighting around Kyvi as the Russians attempt to surround it. Possibly trying to establish a siege before any ceasefire may come into force?