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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 28th Mar 2022, 10:35
  #3661 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Reports circulating of a renewed Russian push north and west of Kyiv. Intriguing to see whether this is a genuine push with fresh troops and equipment, an attempt to prevent encirclement, a blocking move to cover a withdrawal of forces, or something else.

Incidentally - or coincidentally - the Ukrainians had another curfew in force in the city yesterday. Maybe they knew something was up?
Possibly related to the assissination squad they caught trying to cross the border

Never mind reprint of an attempt of almost a week ago
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 11:17
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Dead pan this is Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey at about 4:40

https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 12:56
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
It was reported a week or two back that Russian command had issued a decree that the "special operation" must be complete by May 9th, presumably for this reason.
The 2022 parade (and yes I know it's the wrong army)



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Old 28th Mar 2022, 13:17
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I know I'm being deliberately simplistic here, but a "cessation of hostilities" is probably easily achieved by Russia simply announcing that it's starting to withdraw from Ukraine.

Then the only risk is retaliation as they withdraw, that's where a ceasefire can come into play.

Based on what's happened so far I feel a reasonable conclusion is that any discussion about a ceasefire is only about consolidating/improving the Russian position

It's only a few weeks ago the world was being told there's no invasion of Ukraine intended and the troop movements were just exercises.
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 13:50
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Originally Posted by 42psi
IBased on what's happened so far I feel a reasonable conclusion is that any discussion about a ceasefire is only about consolidating/improving the Russian position
.
They would have to take into account that it could allow faster re-supply from the West also, although I have no idea if supply convoys are being attacked;
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 13:56
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They could always do a Special Withdrawal
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 15:22
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Dead pan this is Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey at about 4:40
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751
Don't disagree with the General in terms of "get them some good stuff to fight with" but I do disagree that the Abrams tank is for this situation the correct answer.
You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks.
The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented.
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 15:30
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Don't disagree with the General in terms of "get them some good stuff to fight with" but I do disagree that the Abrams tank is for this situation the correct answer.
You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks.
The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented.
Also, how would you get tanks to the Ukrainians any more? You couldn't air-, rail- or sealift them in, and you couldn't park them at the border for Ukrainian crews to collect? Switchblade, NLAW, etc can be surreptitiously transported in the back of trucks, car boots, etc.
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 15:44
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Who are Bellingcat? as this seems serious


The Wall Street journal is running it too


Last edited by NutLoose; 28th Mar 2022 at 15:55.
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 15:54
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I did wonder and mention this, it seems it was correct.

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Old 28th Mar 2022, 16:46
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Who are Bellingcat?
Investigative journalism organisation that has become particularly well known for aggregating open source information in investigations
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 16:48
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Nutty - bit surprised that someone as clearly able to source lots of different sources as you are has to ask who Bellingcat is!

For my money, they (and their founder Elliot Higgins) are amongst the best and most reliable open source investigators around.

Have a look at http://www.bellingcat.com/about/

In there is an account of their two most famous investigations, including this:
In July 2014, MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine. Over the next four years Bellingcat discovered key information about the downing of MH17, including tracking the missile launcher that shot down MH17 from its base in Russia to Ukraine, locating the field where the missile was launched from, and identifying a number of suspects involved with the incident. Bellingcat identified that the Russian military was involved years before it was confirmed by European officials.

After the poisoning of MI6 double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in March 2018, Bellingcat has been able to unmask three suspects that we’ve identified as high-ranking Russian military intelligence officers. In October 2018, our researchers appeared at a press briefing at the House of Commons to detail findings about two of the suspects, which supported Britain’s assertion that Moscow had been behind the nerve agent attack. Our investigation into the attacks, which is ongoing, continues to receive significant global attention, from media outlets and governments alike.

And, of course there is also much about more current stuff, including Ukraine, Syria, etc

Add their fortnightly newsletter to your email!

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Old 28th Mar 2022, 16:55
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
Also, how would you get tanks to the Ukrainians any more? You couldn't air-, rail- or sealift them in, and you couldn't park them at the border for Ukrainian crews to collect? Switchblade, NLAW, etc can be surreptitiously transported in the back of trucks, car boots, etc.
Well you could park them in a lot next to the border and tip off the ukraine farmers !!!
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:14
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IF this is true as at today, it will be a massive blow::



IG
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:24
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Originally Posted by Usertim
Well you could park them in a lot next to the border and tip off the ukraine farmers !!!
Great idea!
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:37
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Originally Posted by Usertim
Well you could park them in a lot next to the border and tip off the ukraine farmers !!!

Will a tractor be able to tow a tank towing a Mig 29?

Thanks Airsound, I didn’t know
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:37
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
Great idea!
You could do that with the Migs as well We have no idea who stole them after we parked them there for the night I believe its called plausible deniability

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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:40
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Xi ... looks after his, and China's, Interests.
Putin ... looks after his personal glorification, and stuffs the proletariat..

Two dictators with different perspectives.
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:49
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I see there are reports of heavy fighting around Kyvi as the Russians attempt to surround it. Possibly trying to establish a siege before any ceasefire may come into force?
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Old 28th Mar 2022, 17:58
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I see there are reports of heavy fighting around Kyvi as the Russians attempt to surround it.
Where have you been for the last month?
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