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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:00
  #2461 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker
Given how they're currently fairing against a far less well-equipped foe than NATO....I doubt there is much to fear.

Oh, and before "...but nukes..." gets trotted out, Putin doesn't personally 'press the button'. Do folks honestly think those who are entrusted with operating nuclear deterrents don't understand the consequences of a first strike leading to a thermonuclear exchange?

​​​​​​Mutually Assured Destruction is just as well-understood in Russia as it is elsewhere and I very much doubt the military would allow Russia's Poisoned Dwarf to bring about the end of the world purely as the endgame of his dick waving exploits.
Sorry to dampen your expectations, but absolutely, if Putin gives a command to pop off a bucket of sunshine that shortly thereafter the locals will need SPF 1,000,000,000 and really good earplugs. There was a single known situation where a Lt Col Stanislav Petrov on 26 Sep 83 elected to follow his logic and not follow the Russian response to an erroneous indication of a mass of inbound missiles heading for Russia. He stood down the response, twice. His bosses praised him and then he was sacked. There is not much upside to saving the world apparently.

Putin's behavior has been emboldened by his learning that the rest of the world is not prepared to stand up to the bully kicking sand in faces. Chechnya round II, may be argued as an internal affair it was still genocide. Georgia, who came to Georgia's assistance against Putin? Syria? Putin targets US troops, and the west snooze through it all.

He has learned that he will not be held to account for his actions and that the Russian public is somewhere between enamored and fearful of him.

Assume he drops a nuke on Kiev, who is going to make a meaningful response? Once he does that, and no response arises, then why wouldn't he assume that he can support the dear leader of Belarus to invade Lithuania? At what point is the attack so egregious that the west do what they should have done with Georgia and Syria.

If sanctions are to be effective they need to be total, an unreserved severing of communications and logistics of all forms, irrespective of the pain that causes to us.

Personally, I think the the Turkish drones gives a nice suggestion that the USA do a lend-lease of old reapers and early model predators to the Ukranians, and take officers of the Ukraine to sit in the cabs in Creech to go plinking T-72's and T-90s. There's no shortage of targets there. Throw me in that briar patch.

Putin's justification of the war took a bit of a hit with his troops trying to smoke a nuclear power plant that is upwind of Crimea, Donetsk, Donbas, Luhansk... Volgograd, the whole of Kazakhstan, west China etc. He shows an odd way of helping the newly republic of Putin's, by trying to smoke a nuke upwind of these grateful recipients of Putinesque largesse.

Is this the start of Round III? Russia and China both have eyes on territory, and a world still recovering from the consequences of 4 years of Trumpist diplomacy. I think the only way it doesn't is by a concerted UN intervention to enforce a removal of Putin from Ukraine. I would think that the number of civil claims on all of the assets of Russia that have been seized will get an airing, and the cost to Russia will be catastrophic, they have already done more damage to Ukraine than multiples of the Russian GDP, so that should be fun for every Russian citizen to pay off over then next 2 decades.

If the world doesn't stop the action in Ukraine, it will surely extend further, and then the bell for Round III will probably be rung.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:04
  #2462 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I did consider that version as well, just wanted to point out that there is JEF (to which Wallace to my understanding referred to). And Finland is within the JEF too.
I'd say the Budapest agreement is (or should have been for Ukraine) much stronger than Wallace's comments about Sweden

and the JEF has no guarantees just some wishy washey work together statements - no?

If Russia did say Nuke Finland or Sweden they would be on their own!
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:10
  #2463 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Except just yesterday Ben Wallace stated that the UK quarantees assisting Sweden by all means available in case Russia attacks the swedes.
There you go, a nuclear state giving quarantees to sweden.

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/sto...erige-militart
Assurances from the UK (and US) aren't exactly reliable. Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons as a result of such guarantees...

https://m.dw.com/en/ukraines-forgott...dum/a-18111097

Why should Sweden take such a guarantee seriously if, as when Ukraine called upon such a guarantee, it was presented with a stuttering buffoon called Johnson and a wandering care home resident called Biden pulling out their "...but, but, but NATO..." excuse?

The Budapest Memorandum has nothing to do with NATO and as such the UK and US, if we have any sense of honour to a commitment, should have deployed forces to uphold the guarantee by now.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:17
  #2464 (permalink)  
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What a difference a week makes -

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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:24
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Originally Posted by typerated

and the JEF has no guarantees just some wishy washey work together statements - no?

!
Still, point being that there are agreements that Russia needs to concider, how vague they seem. Unless they all go full Tonto of course in which case the aforementioned SPF is required all around.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:33
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Still, point being that there are agreements that Russia needs to concider, how vague they seem. Unless they all go full Tonto of course in which case the aforementioned SPF is required all around.
The point I was making was
1) He could use Sweden or Finland to use a Nuke with little real chance of anything coming back at him.
2) Once he has used a Nuke the rules are very different
3) He could use the 'real' threat of Nukes then to pressure the break up of NATO

seems logical to me
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:42
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Originally Posted by typerated
The point I was making was
1) He could use Sweden or Finland to use a Nuke with little real chance of anything coming back at him.
2) Once he has used a Nuke the rules are very different
3) He could use the 'real' threat of Nukes then to pressure the break up of NATO

seems logical to me
putin would be striking EU soil. It would not be left unattended.
Even the chinese and probably india would raise their eyebrowse and either consider taking out the madman before he attacks them or see an opportunity take some ground from siberia. Once the can is opened it changes the rules. All bets are off.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:49
  #2468 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
It would not be left unattended.
I think you are wrong
And, more importantly, I think Putin would think you are wrong!
He would say "If there is any retaliatory action – you will start WW3"

Would the UK or US risk their cities to stand up for Sweden - aghhhh no
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:53
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If Sweden and Finland think they would get the benefits and protection of being in NATO without joining I think they might be sorely disappointed.

Like Ukraine is
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:53
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Originally Posted by typerated
I think you are wrong
And, more importantly, I think Putin would think you are wrong!
He would say "If there is any retaliatory action you will start WW3"

Would the UK or US risk their cities to stand up for Sweden - aghhhh no
once Russia enters the Baltics, they will.
If Russia throws the nuke, everyone knows they will surely do it again so why not send all out before the russkies do. A nuke changes everything. Full stop.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 08:59
  #2471 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by typerated
I think you would be naive to read too much into that -if you asked he'd say that UK is standing by the Ukraine and doing everything it can, both militarily and by other means!!

You can easily change Sweden with Finland in my scenario - so try this :

Obviously nobody know what is in Putin mind.

But consider this as a possible scenario.

Russia pressures Finland about not joining NATO. Finland refuses point blank.
Russian threats escalate but Finland does not budge.
Do it or you will regret it say Russia.
Then Putin throws a small tactical nuclear weapon maybe somewhere almost uninhabited in northern Finland - a small military installation say.

Putin has shown he will use nuclear weapons to back his promises without fear of getting anything back in return.
What can Finland do? Nothing
What will Nato do? Nothing!

Then he threatens NATO and the Baltic states.

The Baltic states are mine give them to me or I will use nukes.
He then says NATO countries that DONT defend the Baltic States WONT get Nuked.
Would everyone stick together?
Would Belgium, Netherlands, Germany stand tall?
Does NATO resolve crack? Are the Baltic States given over to avert WW3?

Possible?

Just random thoughts while I was mowing the lawn!
You theorise that NATO does nothing. If I theorise it replies with exactly the same size weapon out in the Russian steppes , that's just as valid , is it not ,? In current circumstances it may be the final strep necessary for the many Russian soldiers at all levels who don't support the war ( either because they think it is wrong or because they see that Russia is retreating towards the last century because of sanctions etc ) to take action in a coup;
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:01
  #2472 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
once Russia enters the Baltics, they will.
.A nuke changes everything. Full stop.

Im guessing you don't live in the US or UK? Maybe even not in a NATO country?

US and UK risking their cities over a small tactical nuke in a neutral country all bets are off Id suggest
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:02
  #2473 (permalink)  
 
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Fight for Ukraine
​​​​​​
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:03
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
You theorise that NATO does nothing. If I theorise it replies with exactly the same size weapon out in the Russian steppes , that's just as valid , is it not ,? In current circumstances it may be the final strep necessary for the many Russian soldiers at all levels who don't support the war ( either because they think it is wrong or because they see that Russia is retreating towards the last century because of sanctions etc ) to take action in a coup;
NATO does nothing until it is attacked - that is article 5 - it has no choice
Firing a Nuke at Russia is suicide
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:05
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Originally Posted by typerated
Im guessing you don't live in the US or UK? Maybe even not in a NATO country?

US and UK risking their cities over a small tactical nuke in a neutral country all bets are off Id suggest
your first assumption is correct.

But if a small tactical nuke in baltics (NATO countries) or invading baltics with conventional means does not trigger the article 5, I'll be very surprised.

Not that it would matter anymore at that point.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:16
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Originally Posted by Beamr
your first assumption is correct.

But if a small tactical nuke in baltics (NATO countries) or invading baltics with conventional means does not trigger the article 5, I'll be very surprised.

Not that it would matter anymore at that point.
And you might be from either Sweden or Finland?

and you think NATO would really respond to a nuke on either Sweden or Finland?

Hmmmm
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:21
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Originally Posted by typerated
And you might be from either Sweden or Finland?

and you think NATO would really respond to a nuke on either Sweden or Finland?

Hmmmm
I said nothing of NATO, I said UK has promised to stand with Sweden in case of Russian assault. And that was a direct quote Ben Wallace, not me.

It was your assumption that NATO would not respond if baltics were invaded after nuke to Sweden/Finland.
Then I said that I'd be surprised if NATO would not react on invasion/nukeing the baltics.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:28
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I think you are a little confused here - Wallace's comments dont mean UK or NATO going to war in Sweden's defence - just that we will help (like we are helping in Ukraine - yet not fighting)

You have also confused what I said about the Baltics- it is Nuclear blackmail not an invasion I was talking about - I repeat:

Russia pressures Sweden (And Finland) about not joining NATO. Sweden refuses point blank.
Russian threats escalate but Sweden does not budge.
Do it or you will regret it say Russia.
Then Putin throws a small tactical nuclear weapon – maybe somewhere almost uninhabited in northern Sweden - a small military installation say.

Putin has shown he will use nuclear weapons to back his promises – without fear of getting anything back in return.
What can Sweden do? Nothing
What will Nato do? Nothing!

Then he threatens NATO and the Baltic states.

The Baltic states are mine – give them to me or I will use nukes.
He then says NATO countries that DON’T defend the Baltic States WON’T get Nuked.
Would everyone stick together?
Would Belgium, Netherlands, Germany stand tall?
Does NATO resolve crack? Are the Baltic States given over to avert WW3?

Possible?

Just random thoughts while I was mowing the lawn!
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:33
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"I said UK has promised to stand with Sweden in case of Russian assault. And that was a direct quote Ben Wallace, not me."

​i'd advise any Swede to treat that "promise" with all the care it requires from a Government that U turns on everything
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 09:36
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I do live in the UK ,and while I do not like it, both UK and USA need to live up to their budapest commitment, and to some extent France and China who made lesser but similar comitments in separate documents.

If that memoradum did not happen then this thread would simply not exist, as UKR would be a powerful nuke country, and russia would not act.

What do we do, back off every time Putin brandishes nukes? Nato is Nato , but I fail to understand why UK\USA cannot act under the memorandum and state art. 5 is not to be used\relevant, and that this is an agreement reaction. Otherwise , really , our word means nothing.
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