Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 6th Mar 2022, 22:36
  #2621 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Location: Uk
Posts: 177
Likes: 0
Received 10 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by havoc
Russia on Sunday warned Ukraine's neighbours including NATO member Romania against hosting Kyiv's military aircraft, saying they could end up being involved in an armed conflict. (msn.com)

Russia on Sunday warned Ukraine's neighbours including NATO member Romania against hosting Kyiv's military aircraft, saying they could end up being involved in an armed conflict.

"We know for sure that Ukrainian combat aircraft have flown to Romania and other neighbouring countries," defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a video briefing.

"The use of the airfield network of these countries for basing Ukrainian military aviation with the subsequent use of force against Russia's army can be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict."

bur/imm
The problem for Russia is that with their pathetic performance to date that threat isnít going to have much weight.

they have thrown their combined weight against Ukraine (bearing in mind they need to keep reserve troops in other parts of the country, and even more so now to suppress rioting and demonstrations). I donít think they are much of a threat to anyone else. This will very much annoy them in years to come, and harm their economy even more as they spend excessive amounts of GDP on defence to rectify the problem.
Flyhighfirst is offline  
Old 6th Mar 2022, 22:39
  #2622 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Location: Uk
Posts: 177
Likes: 0
Received 10 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by cynicalint
Unfortuneatly, the EU, and many pro-EU zealots conflated the EU with NATO's security umbrella. EU membership does not guarantee security. The EU just transfers the governmental practices from the EU national Governments to the Berlayamont. The EU has abused NATO and the effort it puts into defence, Canada would surely agree with you. The UK is no longer constrained by the EU idiocy. You are 100% correct that it is not the USA's fault, and I for one, am so glad that the USA , Canada and every other Non EU state stands
by the UK through NATO and vice-versa.
The EU does have a similar defence structure to Nato. An attack on one is an attack on all. So in relation to defence the EU is one country.
Flyhighfirst is offline  
Old 6th Mar 2022, 22:41
  #2623 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Location: Uk
Posts: 177
Likes: 0
Received 10 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
What would really put that into perspective is if someone bought a lot of Airfix kits, made up the right amount of models to match those numbers and then photographed them. For starters, just think of the floorspace you'd need to display them all

- and I'm being serious ... a way to turn statistics into something tangible/understandable
For what reason or benefit? Makes no sense at all?!
Flyhighfirst is offline  
Old 6th Mar 2022, 22:41
  #2624 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Europe
Posts: 194
Received 20 Likes on 10 Posts
There is hope

petit plateau is offline  
Old 6th Mar 2022, 22:45
  #2625 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Grid ref confused
Age: 63
Posts: 785
Received 8 Likes on 5 Posts
Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst
The EU does have a similar defence structure to NATO. An attack on one is an attack on all. So in relation to defence the EU is one country.
Really! I am certain that the EU lacks a coherent defence structure, but has relied entirely on NATO. Indeed, Macron is still trying to set up an EU military force, to no effect. The EU is certainly NOT a 'one country' defence system!
cynicalint is online now  
Old 6th Mar 2022, 23:38
  #2626 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts



sounds like Russia is getting increasingly worried.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 00:00
  #2627 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Location: Uk
Posts: 177
Likes: 0
Received 10 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose



sounds like Russia is getting increasingly worried.

This is the funniest thing I have heard since this started. The Russians are at the end of their leash. They couldnít have Monaco added to their list of combatants, and they know it.
Flyhighfirst is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 00:05
  #2628 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Location: Uk
Posts: 177
Likes: 0
Received 10 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by cynicalint
Really! I am certain that the EU lacks a coherent defence structure, but has relied entirely on NATO. Indeed, Macron is still trying to set up an EU military force, to no effect. The EU is certainly NOT a 'one country' defence system!
Article 51 - MUTUAL DEFENCE CLAUSE

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between EU countries in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defence clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all EU countries. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain EU countries and is consistent with the commitments of EU countries which are NATO members.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) which provides that EU countries are obliged to act jointly where an EU country is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

Flyhighfirst is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 06:50
  #2629 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: london,uk
Posts: 735
Received 4 Likes on 4 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose



sounds like Russia is getting increasingly worried.
its become apparent that Putin kept the plan of attack very secret to the point that the FSB were completely unaware that a invasion would happen and didnt plan for it.
The paratroopers were given a plan but once defeated on the first day the Russians no longer had any plan and poor radios mean they lost contact with large parts of the army completly.
Unsurprisingly they feel abandoned and the only fighting is by hard charging individual commanders.
This situation is a total disaster for the Russians.
peter we is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 07:04
  #2630 (permalink)  
Tabs please !
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Biffins Bridge
Posts: 910
Received 212 Likes on 118 Posts
Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst
The EU does have a similar defence structure to Nato. An attack on one is an attack on all. So in relation to defence the EU is one country.
Why then are the Finns so nervous about the folks next door ? Sadly, the EU contribution to the Ukraine is to promise to buy them weapons. Putin must be deeply worried that a purchase order is being raised somewhere in the EU procurement chain and some bureaucrat is arranging an invitation to tender document. If the wheels turn quickly, whatever is manufactured will begin to arrive in late 2024.

We must be grateful to those states that are acting unilaterally.

B Fraser is online now  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 07:17
  #2631 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,642
Received 187 Likes on 82 Posts
Originally Posted by B Fraser
Why then are the Finns so nervous about the folks next door ? Sadly, the EU contribution to the Ukraine is to promise to buy them weapons. Putin must be deeply worried that a purchase order is being raised somewhere in the EU procurement chain and some bureaucrat is arranging an invitation to tender document. If the wheels turn quickly, whatever is manufactured will begin to arrive in late 2024.

We must be grateful to those states that are acting unilaterally.
The mutual defence clause of the EU is not at all as binding as the article 5 of NATO. It may include sanctions, weaponry, holding hands or troops if a participating country sees it fit. And to make things more complicated not all the EU countries are participating in the Mutual Defence Pact: eg Denmark originally stated that it'll join the EU but it is not joining in the mutual defence pact, they'll stick to NATO alone. However, Denmark just announced that they'll hold a referendum on joining the EU MDC in June this year:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-pact-tv2-says

Regarding Finland: the Finns have been trying to get a more solid EU Defence pact made for years. Basically the goal has been to clarify what the Lissabon agreement really would mean in case an EU country is attacked, but most of the other EU countries have not shown interest in it. Until last week. Denmark is a very good example.
Beamr is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 07:39
  #2632 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Dublin
Posts: 79
Likes: 0
Received 7 Likes on 5 Posts
Article 42.7 doesnít guarantee a joint military response ( trust me, we had two whole referenda about it). Thereís also the fact that without joint training and equipment standardisation prior to any action, how much more effective will you really be?

As most EU states at the time were already in NATO, it was less critical. Now, and in the near future if Moldova and Ukraine applications are approved, it could mean something very different than what was envisaged. At the time, a large scale European land war was not what was envisaged. Even without committing arms and troops to a fight that was recognised as an EU action, by providing indirect support would you still be recognised as a combatant?
Declan275 is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 07:44
  #2633 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,642
Received 187 Likes on 82 Posts
Meanwhile in Ukraine the defences keep taking out Russian assets.

Beamr is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 08:07
  #2634 (permalink)  

Only half a speed-brake
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Commuting not home
Age: 46
Posts: 4,299
Received 3 Likes on 3 Posts
The situation is getting dire.
​​​
​​​​​​Russians seem to only start the land based war just now.
​​​​​On top of disconnecting the international Internet and running a bioweapons storyline.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t8jmdl/russia_warns_nations_not_to_host_ukraine/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share




Both leaders hellbent on not talking across the border.
Zelenksky got toppled
​into full Wiesenthal mode.

No shortage of young guns:
https://twitter.com/rwesthead/status/1500169855198281729


Last edited by FlightDetent; 7th Mar 2022 at 08:57.
FlightDetent is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 09:49
  #2635 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,568
Received 8 Likes on 7 Posts
Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst
The problem for Russia is that with their pathetic performance to date that threat isnít going to have much weight.

they have thrown their combined weight against Ukraine (bearing in mind they need to keep reserve troops in other parts of the country, and even more so now to suppress rioting and demonstrations). I donít think they are much of a threat to anyone else. This will very much annoy them in years to come, and harm their economy even more as they spend excessive amounts of GDP on defence to rectify the problem.
Yes, its all a bit embarrassing for them really. I bet some people at NATO Command are scratching their heads trying to make sense of the chaos that is the Russian military machine. As Hertling noted in a recent Tweet, its the military equivalent of a mosh pit...

Given the vast majority of their conventional kit is legacy Soviet stuff, I wonder how much they would realistically need to spend to put them on par with NATO or China? Probably more money than their economy will generate for years and years.
dead_pan is online now  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 10:08
  #2636 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Herefordshire
Posts: 737
Received 446 Likes on 156 Posts
Originally Posted by dead_pan
Yes, its all a bit embarrassing for them really. I bet some people at NATO Command are scratching their heads trying to make sense of the chaos that is the Russian military machine. As Hertling noted in a recent Tweet, its the military equivalent of a mosh pit...

Given the vast majority of their conventional kit is legacy Soviet stuff, I wonder how much they would realistically need to spend to put them on par with NATO or China? Probably more money than their economy will generate for years and years.
Modenising their kit is one thing. How do they modernise the incompetent barbarians operating it? I wonder if their Navy is just as bad.
Video Mixdown is online now  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 10:14
  #2637 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts
Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst
The problem for Russia is that with their pathetic performance to date that threat isnít going to have much weight.

they have thrown their combined weight against Ukraine (bearing in mind they need to keep reserve troops in other parts of the country, and even more so now to suppress rioting and demonstrations). I donít think they are much of a threat to anyone else. This will very much annoy them in years to come, and harm their economy even more as they spend excessive amounts of GDP on defence to rectify the problem.
Have they though? The latest tank I have seen so far and I might be wrong, is the T80, none of his latest generation armour, it's almost as if he does not want to lose his expensive new toys such as the older T90 and T-14 Armatas.




NutLoose is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 10:16
  #2638 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: UK
Posts: 124
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Really hoping to get some confirmation on this one !
Usertim is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 10:21
  #2639 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,112
Received 2,432 Likes on 1,014 Posts
Knock on effect of the successes in the Ukraine of western weaponary?

https://www.army-technology.com/news...e-budget-2022/

China has proposed to increase defence spending by 7.1%, to CNY1.45tn ($230bn) in 2022, in a bid to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

The proposed increase was announced by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang while delivering the draft budget at the opening of the annual session of National People’s Congress (NPC), the top legislature of the country.

If approved, the rise in defence spending will mark the largest increase since 2019, reported Reuters. Last year, the figure was 6.8%.

According to the news agency, Premier Li said that the government will focus on modernising its military’s logistics, as well as developing modern weaponry.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 7th Mar 2022, 10:31
  #2640 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 1,642
Received 187 Likes on 82 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Have they though? The latest tank I have seen so far and I might be wrong, is the T80, none of his latest generation armour, it's almost as if he does not want to lose his expensive new toys such as the older T90 and T-14 Armatas.
Lots of T90's on the twitter feed.
T14's are rare as chickens teeth, the whole project was once already cancelled, then announced again in 2019, but the delivery of the first batch of test units has been postponed multiple times and to my understanding has not been delivered to date. Hence those will not be seen.


Beamr is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.