Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Strikes starting in Russia due to wages not being fully paid.
Really hoping to get some confirmation on this one !
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...39535558356993
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...39535558356993
Only source so far is the Interfax Ukraine, which claims those were 30 helicopters. Only one story from one Ukrainian news agency, needs more verification.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/808661.html
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/808661.html
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Two more senior posts going in Russia.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...-AAUIhqq?pfr=1
'Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, and Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, were killed.'
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Russia now trying to recruit Syrians to fight in the capital
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...c-press-review
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...c-press-review
Only source so far is the Interfax Ukraine, which claims those were 30 helicopters. Only one story from one Ukrainian news agency, needs more verification.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/808661.html
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/808661.html
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Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko·6 MarAmericans say they have already fired 500 missiles. Ukrainian intel say Russians have spent most of its tactical missile stockpile against us — and correct me if I’m wrong, it was not that effective in terms of crippling our defense.
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko·6 MarUkrainian intel says Russians are deploying Tochka-U missile systems against Kyiv.
And it sounds bizarre. I was sure Russians deem Tochkas obsolete and they aimed at retiring them all long time ago.
Are they already running out of modern Kalibrs and Iskanders or what?
And it sounds bizarre. I was sure Russians deem Tochkas obsolete and they aimed at retiring them all long time ago.
Are they already running out of modern Kalibrs and Iskanders or what?
I have seen pictures of a burned out Hind, that purport that it was "downed", but the state of the blades clearly show it was destroyed while stationary on the ground - so possibly part of this raid.
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So brave.....
The Tochkas (or Scarabs, if you prefer) are in active use, don't know where the idea of obsoleteness is coming from.
Those were already seen in the railroad carts pictured prior to the attack.
Those were already seen in the railroad carts pictured prior to the attack.
Russia now trying to recruit Syrians to fight in the capital
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...c-press-review
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...c-press-review
On the topic of Syria, I did read some analysis over the weekend which suggested that Russia could be really hard-pressed to maintain their presence in the country given demands in Ukraine and the Turks closing the Bosphorous, the upshot being that it could all kick off again in that part of the world.
Vlad's in-tray is growing by the day...
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Reported that Putins lover and kids have been squirreled away to Swiss chalet, pity they couldn't be deported to somewhere nicer, say Kiev
@Flyhighfirst:
Untrue, both politically and functionally. I am going to offer a longer summary that encompasses some of the pithy (and spot on) responses that you got.
When will a nation contribute troops and other assets to an EU operation?
When they feel like it. There is no Article V.
Beyond that, there are some core competencies that come with interoperability. Those nations that are both NATO and EU have experience with that, and some structure, but well I remember the Link 1 Link 11 Link 16 disparities back in the 90's within NATO.
Any of you who operated with the CAOC (Vicenza) during the various "Yugoslavia disintegrates" ops know the good, the bad, and the ugly of coalition operations.
And that's with nations who had established habitual relationships over decades.
Command and control (which is a necessary function for any coalition defense effort) is a core competency that you can't assume if someone says EU will act together to defend {country X}.
You may or may not get an effective C2/C3/C4I (what is the current acronym, anyway?) set up.
Beyond that, a lot of nations have over time shown that they will wait, politically, for a UN mandate.
When aggression happens, time is on the aggressor's side as the "we'll wait" option gets exercised by your alleged "one country" and its various members.
The quest for the Independent European Security Identity seems to be never ending (Macron being the latest to toot this horn, oh, yeah, do you remember Eurocorps?).
It may at this point be termed Quixotic - unless what Putin just did provides a motive for things to change in about 30 capitals.
Fly, the bottom line is that your assertion is both naive and false.
Too bad, really, since the habits formed over two / three generations of NATO-based cooperation provides some good models for effective collective defense and interoperability.
But it isn't Article V. Neither is UN Charter Article 51.
Some nation, or some nations, have to decide that "it matters to us and thus we'll I'll spend blood and treasure on it" or nothing happens.
You nailed it. Coalition warfare and coalition operations are hard, even with habitual relationships. Without them, they are harder and less effective.
Some day, the EU members will address this and commit resources to this.
Or they won't.
As the various operations in Former Yugoslavia have shown us, and as the recent troubles in Ukraine (Donbas, Crimea, et al) have shown, nations decide independently what they are going to do about any given aggression. That, the choice to do or not to do something, is also in keeping with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
@deadpan
That's a disturbing thought: Vlad's gamble in Ukraine sets off a new round of fighting in Syria? Haven't those folks in Syria suffered enough?
The EU does have a similar defence structure to Nato. An attack on one is an attack on all. So in relation to defence the EU is one country.
When will a nation contribute troops and other assets to an EU operation?
When they feel like it. There is no Article V.
Beyond that, there are some core competencies that come with interoperability. Those nations that are both NATO and EU have experience with that, and some structure, but well I remember the Link 1 Link 11 Link 16 disparities back in the 90's within NATO.
Any of you who operated with the CAOC (Vicenza) during the various "Yugoslavia disintegrates" ops know the good, the bad, and the ugly of coalition operations.
And that's with nations who had established habitual relationships over decades.
Command and control (which is a necessary function for any coalition defense effort) is a core competency that you can't assume if someone says EU will act together to defend {country X}.
You may or may not get an effective C2/C3/C4I (what is the current acronym, anyway?) set up.
Beyond that, a lot of nations have over time shown that they will wait, politically, for a UN mandate.
When aggression happens, time is on the aggressor's side as the "we'll wait" option gets exercised by your alleged "one country" and its various members.
The quest for the Independent European Security Identity seems to be never ending (Macron being the latest to toot this horn, oh, yeah, do you remember Eurocorps?).
It may at this point be termed Quixotic - unless what Putin just did provides a motive for things to change in about 30 capitals.
Fly, the bottom line is that your assertion is both naive and false.
Too bad, really, since the habits formed over two / three generations of NATO-based cooperation provides some good models for effective collective defense and interoperability.
This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all EU countries.
Some nation, or some nations, have to decide that "it matters to us and thus we'll I'll spend blood and treasure on it" or nothing happens.
Originally Posted by Declan275
Article 42.7 doesn't guarantee a joint military response (trust me, we had two whole referenda about it).
There's also the fact that without joint training and equipment standardisation prior to any action, how much more effective will you really be?
There's also the fact that without joint training and equipment standardisation prior to any action, how much more effective will you really be?
As most EU states at the time were already in NATO, it was less critical. Now, and in the near future if Moldova and Ukraine applications are approved, it could mean something very different than what was envisaged. At the time, a large scale European land war was not what was envisaged. Even without committing arms and troops to a fight that was recognised as an EU action, by providing indirect support would you still be recognised as a combatant?
Or they won't.
As the various operations in Former Yugoslavia have shown us, and as the recent troubles in Ukraine (Donbas, Crimea, et al) have shown, nations decide independently what they are going to do about any given aggression. That, the choice to do or not to do something, is also in keeping with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
@deadpan
That's a disturbing thought: Vlad's gamble in Ukraine sets off a new round of fighting in Syria? Haven't those folks in Syria suffered enough?
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 7th Mar 2022 at 14:56.
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The Kyiv Independent obtained a WhatsApp audio message recorded by a woman residing in the city of Aleysk in Russia’s Altai region some 3,500 kilometers east of Kyiv, the home base for the 35th Brigade.
In the voice message, an unidentified woman weeps telling her fellow WhatsApp group member that the local “tank brigade” was “totally destroyed in Ukraine.”n particular, she mentions that “just 18 out of 150 guys survived,” probably meaning one of the brigade’s formations was destroyed by Ukrainian troops. Besides, the speaker says the first batch of 45 coffins, mostly young people from the town and villages nearby, were coming to Aleysk on the day of the recorded voice message.
The weeping woman also says some of the killed were her neighbors and acquaintances. She particularly mentions a military service-member named Evgeniy Zhilin. This name can be found in the leaked register of 120,000 Russian soldiers allegedly involved in the invasion of Ukraine published on March 1 by Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, a think tank. There is also a deleted VK social media account of a Evgeniy Zhilin from Aleysk.
According to the woman, the killed were mostly very young men. The local community found out about their deaths the day before the recording was made, and it mourned the loss.
The revelation is partially confirmed by several pieces of evidence about Russia’s 35th Brigade’s involvement in Ukraine. It is known that the brigade’s armored formations were destroyed in armed clashes near the city of Chernihiv, north of Kyiv, on Feb. 26, with lots of manpower killed or taken prisoner.
The Ukrainian military on that day particularly reported seizing Major Leonid Shchetkin, who served as a chief executive officer and deputy battalion leader with Russia’s military unit No. 41659, which is the home base for the 35th Brigade.
In addition, Ukrainian troops posted a video showing surrendering Russian soldiers openly admitting to being service members with the brigade based in Aleysk.
In the voice message, an unidentified woman weeps telling her fellow WhatsApp group member that the local “tank brigade” was “totally destroyed in Ukraine.”n particular, she mentions that “just 18 out of 150 guys survived,” probably meaning one of the brigade’s formations was destroyed by Ukrainian troops. Besides, the speaker says the first batch of 45 coffins, mostly young people from the town and villages nearby, were coming to Aleysk on the day of the recorded voice message.
The weeping woman also says some of the killed were her neighbors and acquaintances. She particularly mentions a military service-member named Evgeniy Zhilin. This name can be found in the leaked register of 120,000 Russian soldiers allegedly involved in the invasion of Ukraine published on March 1 by Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, a think tank. There is also a deleted VK social media account of a Evgeniy Zhilin from Aleysk.
According to the woman, the killed were mostly very young men. The local community found out about their deaths the day before the recording was made, and it mourned the loss.
The revelation is partially confirmed by several pieces of evidence about Russia’s 35th Brigade’s involvement in Ukraine. It is known that the brigade’s armored formations were destroyed in armed clashes near the city of Chernihiv, north of Kyiv, on Feb. 26, with lots of manpower killed or taken prisoner.
The Ukrainian military on that day particularly reported seizing Major Leonid Shchetkin, who served as a chief executive officer and deputy battalion leader with Russia’s military unit No. 41659, which is the home base for the 35th Brigade.
In addition, Ukrainian troops posted a video showing surrendering Russian soldiers openly admitting to being service members with the brigade based in Aleysk.
I heard on the news that the Russians have now occupied / gotten control of two Ukranian power plants, nuclear, and are trying to get control of a third.
My first thought was "leverage for negotiations" but there also are some a plausible tactical reason for this.
If nothing else, potential to degrade Ukraine C2.
My first thought was "leverage for negotiations" but there also are some a plausible tactical reason for this.
If nothing else, potential to degrade Ukraine C2.