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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Dec 2021, 11:28
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Its noteworthy how unhinged the Russians are sounding now, esp the big man (is he losing it?). Question is, is this their way of warming their population up for a fight, or are the West's steadfast tactics getting to them? On which note, I now the US have come in for some criticism however their push for diplomacy is masterful.
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Old 22nd Dec 2021, 19:51
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu claimed Tuesday that U.S. mercenaries were preparing Ukrainian special forces and radical armed groups for “active hostilities” in eastern Ukraine, and had delivered “an unidentified chemical component” to the region “to commit provocations.”
translation = we are going to launch a false flag chemical attack on ukrainian sepratists (or russian troops on 'holiday' then blame it on ukraine and then use that a pretense to invade the country

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Old 22nd Dec 2021, 19:54
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Its noteworthy how unhinged the Russians are sounding now, esp the big man (is he losing it?). Question is, is this their way of warming their population up for a fight, or are the West's steadfast tactics getting to them? On which note, I now the US have come in for some criticism however their push for diplomacy is masterful.
The US and allies have been recently reminded of the horrors of war, and the cost and waste of waging one with no productive result. Let's stay out of this one and wish the diplomats success.
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Old 22nd Dec 2021, 19:57
  #424 (permalink)  
 
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Peace is about to break out as the Ukraine is now buying Russian gas again delivered through Hungary . I wonder what the Big Guys cut will be ?
Anyone still got shares in Burisma ?
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 09:00
  #425 (permalink)  
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Are we already engaged in a hybrid war?

From today’s Politico…

GAS CRISIS: There is a major non-COVID story going slightly under the radar so far this morning: U.K. wholesale gas prices hit a record of 450p per therm on Wednesday in part because gas flows from Russia have been cut off in recent days. The Guardian’s Rob Davies said Russian gas in a pipeline to Germany has switched direction to flow east for the last two days.

The FT’s Nathalie Thomas, Jim Pickard and Neil Hume splash the story, which a government adviser tells Playbook could even surpass Omicron as the main problem facing the country in the coming weeks.

Sounding the alarm: Nigel Pocklington, boss of green energy firm Good Energy, says: “This is a national crisis. Wholesale gas and power prices have increased to unprecedented levels over the last three weeks, creating an extremely difficult operating environment for every business in the industry.”

EDF Energy said the situation is “critical” and Energy U.K.’s Emma Pinchbeck told the FT Britain is facing “a marketwide crisis.”…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...l-Records.html

Europe Faces Full Blown Energy Crisis As Gas Prices Smash All Records
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 09:57
  #426 (permalink)  
 
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gas prices have been zooming for months - generally it's felt that the Russians aren't actually cutting supply but they're not doing a great deal to improve supply either. No evidence of them reneging on contracts or a sudden "accident" interrupting supply.

They benefit either way at these prices. Problem is European utilities were uncertain about covid effects and generally didn't contract enough gas.
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 10:01
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
gas prices have been zooming for months - generally it's felt that the Russians aren't actually cutting supply but they're not doing a great deal to improve supply either. No evidence of them reneging on contracts or a sudden "accident" interrupting supply.

They benefit either way at these prices. Problem is European utilities were uncertain about covid effects and generally didn't contract enough gas.
Dunno jack **** about the gas dealing. But the one I read said it was more of a they have supplied the amount they were contracted to supply, so they didn't so much as cut it off, they didn't deliver the extra requested by
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 10:10
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Add to the mix a large number of Ukrainian citizens who would take up arms in defence of their nation, plus a sizeable number of Poles who would cross the border to join the fight.

and add to the mix a large number of eastern Ukrainian citizens who would take up arms in favour of Russia, one hell of a civil war which the Russians might want to intervene in order to “protect” them!
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 10:51
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I would have said throttling the gas supply is going to be a one time deal for Russia as the Europe will turn to other sources of energy thus eventually crippling Russia’s main energy revenue.

As for shipping it east to China’s industries as an alternate market, that too could also be fraught with problems as families in the west hit by higher fuel prices tighten their financial belts and reduce the amount of consumer goods purchased out of China.
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 10:54
  #430 (permalink)  
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large number of eastern Ukrainian citizens
Now Russian citizens as Putin has issued them all Russian passports. Classic casus belli.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31234248.html
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 11:53
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Now Russian citizens as Putin has issued them all Russian passports.
Whether they want them or not?

On Al Jazeera yesterday a talking head from an American institute reiterated my point that this crisis has been in a large part manufactured to distract the Russia population from the economic travails at home i.e. inflation running at 18%, 40% of them without savings, Nord 2 not looking to be approved anytime soon etc.
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 12:12
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Ie blame Russia's woes on the west, well if he did invade their woes would get seriously worse with additional sanctions.
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 12:14
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Op Deny Christmas Delayed

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to restore a 2020 ceasefire deal in eastern Ukraine, prompting a top official in Kyiv to say that the coming holidays "should be peaceful".

Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak hailed the deal brokered by Europe's OSCE security organisation as a step towards de-escalation.

Good, the wine is in the fridge now.
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Old 23rd Dec 2021, 21:37
  #434 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-analysis

Why Putin is acting like a man who has run out of time

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Old 24th Dec 2021, 00:06
  #435 (permalink)  
 
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Peace is achievable.

Last edited by fitliker; 24th Dec 2021 at 06:35.
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 09:31
  #436 (permalink)  
 
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Peace is always acheivable..it just needs someone to swallow their pride, and back down...
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 09:37
  #437 (permalink)  
 
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Peace is our profession.
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 13:19
  #438 (permalink)  
 
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Peace in our time? Double bluff?
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 15:15
  #439 (permalink)  
 
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Are they on their start lines or is de-escalation happening?
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 17:01
  #440 (permalink)  
 
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Russia says Molotov cocktail thrown at consulate in Ukraine, protests to Ukraine authorities
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2021-12-24/

Satellite images show Russia still building up forces near Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2021-12-24/

Are the Russians planning to "protect their citizens" like in 2014?
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