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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 3rd Mar 2022, 16:21
  #2301 (permalink)  

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Just musing, although I'd be surprised if several governments aren't thinking along these lines. Contact, individually and secretly, three or four of the top men in Putin's circle. Offer an amnesty from war crimes, a substantial amount of money, a new identity and somewhere safe and warm, in exchange for Putin, alive, delivered to the Hague. That sets off the thought "If Yuri does it, he'll get the reward, and I'll still be liable for war crimes". They can't confer among themselves, since they don't know who is going to tell Putin. See who breaks first.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 16:27
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How many of the Russian top brass and politburo really relish the idea of living in a nuclear wasteland or as international pariahs? They can't all be bonkers.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 16:37
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
How many of the Russian top brass and politburo really relish the idea of living in a nuclear wasteland or as international pariahs? They can't all be bonkers.
Not bonkers, but propaganda mushrooms for the large part - forever fed nonsense & kept in the dark.

Lingering Cold War paranoia probably doesn't help either.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 16:49
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
"A military source confirmed that he was killed 'by a sniper', and suggested a funeral for the Major General - by far the most senior Russian figure to have died in the conflict thus far - will be held in Russia on Saturday."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oops-died.html

edit:

On reflection, " a sniper" does , of course, leave all options open.
No indication as to whose side the sniper was on
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 16:55
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
How many of the Russian top brass and politburo really relish the idea of living in a nuclear wasteland or as international pariahs? They can't all be bonkers.
Depressingly, the longer this goes on the more high level idiots seem to be rising to the surface.

The head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency said on Thursday it was wrong to speak of a new Cold War between Russia and the West because the situation was already "hot".

"Western politicians and commentators like to call what is happening a 'new cold war.' It seems that historical parallels are not entirely appropriate here," Sergei Naryshkin said on his agency's website.

"If only because in the second half of the 20th century Russia fought with the West on the distant approaches, and now the war has come to the very borders of our Motherland. So for us it is definitely not 'cold', but quite 'hot'".
Russia's ambassador to the (UN Human Rights) council, Gennady Gatilov, dismissed calls for an inquiry, denounced what he called the "criminal regime in Kyiv" and accused the United States and EU of supplying lethal weapons.

"We do not see any added value in today's debate," he said.
Both are extracts from the Telegraph's live coverage.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 17:08
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
If, as hostile occupiers, they go as far as the Nazis, they will have a steadily incrementing list of measures they can take to wreak retribution and for effecting "Pour discouragee les autres" on the Ukranians resistance - ranging from severely restricting the operations of business (Particularly food and clothing) and transport and communications, restricting medical services to the occupier provision only, taking an economic tythe, threats to the families of known resistance workers, turning-off the utilities, individual arrests, mass arrests, straight imprisonment, deportations to Gulags in Siberia, individual executions, mass executions, wiping human settlements off the map (Lidice and Oradour), contaminating land so it can't be re-occupied, with anti-personal devices, bio or chem agents.
And, Russian Security forces would be operating in the same way as the Gestapo, infiltrating and undermining resistance organisations.
For all that you will need a much firmer Grip than you will achieve with 50.000 Troops, You will need MUCH more for that. Permanently.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 17:26
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
To have prevented all of this, all the Russians were asking for was a written assurance from NATO that nukes would never be placed in Ukraine.
Seems small potatoes now compared with what's transpired.
Was that all they were "asking" for? Nothing about reassurance that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO?

And the assumption that they were actually asking for anything at all is tenuous. Its arguable that Putin had no intention of doing anything other than invading.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 17:43
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Appears that Ukrainian forces have been going after that huge convoy outside Kyiv:
Ukraine jets hit Russian column; Russia has used thermobarics, Ukraine military says (militarytimes.com)
“We are striking the enemy’s columns,” Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times in an exclusive interview Wednesday morning. “We burn many columns of the enemy.”

The strikes, he said, are being conducted by Ukraine Su-24 and Su-25 fighter jets, artillery and missile barrages.
“We’ve seen indications that at times and at certain places, the convoys may have been resisted by Ukrainian forces and I think I have to leave it at that,” the official said. “But we’ve seen indications that we are in no position to refute [Ukraine claims they have hit the convoy].”
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 17:49
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
To have prevented all of this, all the Russians were asking for was a written assurance from NATO that nukes would never be placed in Ukraine.
Seems small potatoes now compared with what's transpired.
Oh, I think this is a gross misinterpretation of the motivation behind all this. Putin is on a mission. And that mission is a 'Russian Union' in the borders of the Soviet Union. All these stories about the dangerous Ukraine and NATO are surely just BS to brush a little paint over this.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 17:54
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Estonian cargo ship sinks after blast in Black Sea

Estonian cargo ship sinks after blast in Black Sea (msn.com)An Estonian cargo ship has sunk off the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa after an explosion, the ship's owners say.

The crew of the Helt were able to abandon ship, but four of its members are unaccounted for and the other two are still at sea in a life raft.

The vessel had been anchored off the coast after leaving port several days ago.

Ukrainian media say the Russian navy had been using the Helt as a shield to hide from Ukrainian weaponry.

The Panama-flagged ship is owned by Estonia-based company Vista Shipping Agency. Baltic state Estonia is a member of Nato and has a border with Russia.

Ukraine's military says that Russia is sending amphibious landing vessels to capture Odesa, a city of a million people and a major seaport, as it continues its advance across southern Ukraine.

Russia describes the invasion as a "special military operation" to demilitarise the country.


An Ukrainian official told Lloyd's List the ship was evacuated after sustaining damage below the waterline and listing by 70 degrees.

Captain Igor Ilves, managing director of Vista Shipping Agency, told the BBC there was an explosion on or near the ship but that it was not thought to be a mine.

Capt Ilves, who was not on the ship at the time, said it was not carrying any cargo.

He expressed concern for the fate of the crew.

"Nobody can help them," he told Reuters. "The Ukrainians cannot go to sea because it is under Russian control."

They comprised four Ukrainians, one Russian and one Belarusian, Capt Ilves added.

Hours earlier, a Bangladeshi-owned ship was hit by an explosion in Ukraine's Black Sea port of Olvia, killing one crew member.

Efforts were being made to rescue the remaining 28 crew of the Banglar Samriddhi, the ship's owner told Reuters.

The Nato Shipping Centre has warned commercial vessels in the northern part of the Black Sea to "exercise caution and stay away from areas where military operations are taking place".


BBCEstonian cargo ship sinks after blast in Black Sea
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 18:07
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Flight Radar show F16 from Treviso now doing the "Race-track" in northern Romania.
And, somewhat surprisingly, a Volga-Dnepr IL-76 en route from Moscow to Bratislava (currently over Poland). Not sure what that's all about...
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 18:23
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Y . .or they would have to invent a new reason, which, in and of itself would condemn them. Is there the possibility the West played its cards too early i.e. that is the Munich moment missed . . the extra time needed for Europe to re-constitute its military.
Putin is using the excuse both of "Nazis" and " offensive weapons" in Ukraine currently, so he could have side-stepped any agreement on nukes with those excuses. That apart, there was no real sign that Europe was dramatically increasing its military spend. Prior to current events, there was no way the new German government would have revised Merkel's target of 1.5% by 2024.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 3rd Mar 2022 at 18:39.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 18:25
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Yer but, if the West had accepted the primae facie Russian claim that all they wanted was for Ukraine not to be part of NATO and for no tactical nukes to be placed on its soil, then it would have temporarily stymied them and would, if invasion action had been taken after that, revealed the "Real" Russian agenda, if it substantially exists, . .
In that package were a few more demands: Among others a total retreat of NATO forces from the Eastern European Countries to a pre- 1997 state. They were tailored in a way that NATO/US could never accept them.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 18:39
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Originally Posted by pasta
And, somewhat surprisingly, a Volga-Dnepr IL-76 en route from Moscow to Bratislava (currently over Poland). Not sure what that's all about...
More and more curious:

Last minute diversion into Brno, Czechia. - Bratislava CAVOK??

IG
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 19:12
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Originally Posted by pasta
And, somewhat surprisingly, a Volga-Dnepr IL-76 en route from Moscow to Bratislava (currently over Poland). Not sure what that's all about...
Reportedly delivering nuclear reactor fuel, a permitted exception to the ban.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 19:28
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Originally Posted by pasta
And, somewhat surprisingly, a Volga-Dnepr IL-76 en route from Moscow to Bratislava (currently over Poland). Not sure what that's all about...
It is already second batch of fuel to Slovak nuclear power plants within days. This type of cargo has an exemption and can be delivered regardless of closed sky.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 19:54
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FlightRadar also shows USAF tankers and an Italian 767 (tanker?).
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 20:46
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Originally Posted by fab777
Probably huge. But they die defending their country, which is different from dying invading another.
I wasn't trying to provoke here, just genuinely curious. I guess people that need to know do know, but general public might be lulled by this "all is great".
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 20:47
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Originally Posted by henra
In that package were a few more demands: Among others a total retreat of NATO forces from the Eastern European Countries to a pre- 1997 state. They were tailored in a way that NATO/US could never accept them.
FFS, have you never negotiated in your life? You start with something outrageous and then settle on something acceptable to all sides.
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Old 3rd Mar 2022, 20:55
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Originally Posted by admikar
FFS, have you never negotiated in your life? You start with something outrageous and then settle on something acceptable to all sides.
I doubt any of the countries that have joined NATO since 1997 are going to say "We are going to leave it!" Not on your nelly.
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