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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 5th Dec 2022, 11:04
  #12301 (permalink)  
 
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Having your eggs in one basket does have the advantage of simplifying the logistic and engineering support for your fleet, It depends how at risk you think your MOB is. That opinion is probably being revised.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 11:05
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Timing of the strike is prophetic



Working on the 1000KM range


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Old 5th Dec 2022, 11:07
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Originally Posted by Beamr View Post
ok, thanks. Yet still, I believe all the eggs aren't in the same basket but spread out a bit, eg some in Murmansk.
They only have 17 and sat photos from about a week ago had about 6 TU-160 at the airbase. So about 1/3 of the airframes were there
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 11:20
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
They only have 17 and sat photos from about a week ago had about 6 TU-160 at the airbase. So about 1/3 of the airframes were there
In reference to long range drones, trading payload for batteries increases the range of a dji drone and if it is sacrificial, the range is doubled. We have seen small munitions dropped on trenches, what damage would such a munition do to a parked fighter jet or bomber?
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 11:38
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what damage would such a munition do to a parked fighter jet or bomber?
You’ve seen what they do to a tank, what do you that charge would do to the main spar of a jet?

Jets are made as light as possible with structural elements stressed to withstand the forces of flight, not withstand a shaped charge. The warhead of an AIM-9L is under 10Kg but is big enough to cut an aircraft in half.

Last edited by ORAC; 5th Dec 2022 at 12:03. Reason: Sp
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 11:49
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Originally Posted by Paul C View Post
In the video of the Ka-52 shoot down that NutLoose posted what do people think actually struck it? It looks like a top down attack and reminds me of footage of BONUS artillery rounds.
The Ukrainian's are reported to have said "you'd never guess." Brimstone?
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:11
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill View Post
In reference to long range drones, trading payload for batteries increases the range of a dji drone and if it is sacrificial, the range is doubled. We have seen small munitions dropped on trenches, what damage would such a munition do to a parked fighter jet or bomber?
The Lewes bomb devised by the SAS in WWII only weighed around 1lb and could easily destroy an aircraft.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:11
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans View Post
The Ukrainian's are reported to have said "you'd never guess." Brimstone?
Looks rather to big for a Brimstone. But attack from above does indeed point to something unusual being done.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:13
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Originally Posted by rattman View Post
They only have 17 and sat photos from about a week ago had about 6 TU-160 at the airbase. So about 1/3 of the airframes were there
The German magazine focus.de quotes Ukrainian forces as saying that 14 Tu-95 bombers took off sometime after the explosions
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:25
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Probably the aim, make them shift them out of range and thus negate their effectiveness.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:28
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Simultaneous attack at Dyagilevo, Ryazan. Russians reporting it was just a fuel tanker exploding - but they would, wouldn’t they they…..
Also reports of 2 x TU-95 damaged, so maybe confusion between the two attacks. Hopefully clear skies for BDR or we might never really know,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyagilevo_(air_base)
All these explosions taking place at airfields and large, hard to repair, industrial sites inside Russia; it's almost as if having a long porous border with a people you've pissed off isn't such a good thing.
Chris Papallio, twitter....

He might be on to something with that...

So, choppers near St Petes are not safe. TU-160 seems to be an endangered species, as is the Su-34. The Crimea is becoming high for ground risks of aircraft... as is flight risk/war cover I guess. The Black Sea is not healthy for surface skimmers, and not so good for dolphin wearers. The Baltic, Russia being a State sponsor of terrorism to the EU has a bit of a problem with trying to pass any territorial waters, they lost innocent passage, shame. That also keeps them out of Japanese home waters if Japan wants to acknowledge the EU status. All up, Kamchatsky seems like a nice place to place Russian air and naval assets. Nice place, toilets work, kind of. Harbour is interesting for ex fisheads. At some point, the Russian citizenry will probably start to notice the OHSA infractions at their main bases.

Last edited by fdr; 5th Dec 2022 at 12:43.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:28
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WarMonitor is reporting that Ukraine is currently under a significant cruise missile attack.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:32
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Reports that the Russians have launched 14 Bears from Engels, which is just about the entire wing.

Not enough time to have planned and launched an attack, so looks like they’re flushing the bombers to safer FOBs, presumably further east.

Which should severely hamper any further mass cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.

The other main Bear base is Ukrainka in the Far East, with around 42 aircraft, but that’s over 7,500km east of Moscow and deploying there would realistically take them out of the war.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:49
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Originally Posted by KarlADrage View Post
WarMonitor is reporting that Ukraine is currently under a significant cruise missile attack.
Must be a day ending with "Y". Vlad knows how to win hearts and minds. IIRC, bombing the stuffing out of the populace didn't win a war to date, although it has concentrated minds. If they are not able to hit military targets then they deserve the war crimes trials that are in their tea leaves, assuming that the UN's spineless bureaucrats don't give out flowers instead to Vlads terrorists.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 12:55
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Fair to say the Russian blogosphere aren’t happy. That poor defenceless airbase…..



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Old 5th Dec 2022, 13:16
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Semantics at work again, but according to the letter of the law, if the Russians wish to get all precise all of a sudden, I noticed the Ukrainians said that they were hitting their own aircraft which were being used to bomb the Ukrainian populace, and which had been lifted from them some years ago.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 13:21
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Reports that the Russians have launched 14 Bears from Engels, which is just about the entire wing.

Not enough time to have planned and launched an attack, so looks like they’re flushing the bombers to safer FOBs, presumably further east.
Or did the Ukraine have intel about a planned raid today, and the attack was an attempt to hit them as they were being readied....?
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 13:26
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Russia as an importer of oil?

The Angarsk oil terminal run by Transneft to the NW of Irkutsk on 27 NOV raises some questions.
  1. Is it time for Russia to give up cigarettes?
  2. The state of the oil refinery that was not burnt seemed to be consistent with the level of care that AK47's have been kept in, and that seems to be inconsistent with reliability in an arctic/permafrost area.
  3. If Russia is unable to remain a reliable supplier of oil to the residual recipients, how long will it be before the remainder clients are obliged to change their supplier to someone more reliable than Vlads Hermits.
  4. The EU declaration of Russia's status as a terrorist sponsor state will preclude shipments through EU related waters, so that is a problem unless Vlad has is Acme oil 'n gas pipeline kit handy.
  5. If product is unable to be used, how long until the well heads cease to operate?
  6. How does Russia going from an energy exporter to an importer impact the vibrant and welcoming economy of the kingdom of Rus?
That may be far fetched, but the fallout of that would give Vlad his entry in Guiness.
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 13:29
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Fair to say the Russian blogosphere aren’t happy. That poor defenceless airbase…..
I thought it was a tanker?
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Old 5th Dec 2022, 15:59
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
I thought it was a tanker?
That was the second incident
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