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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 7th Dec 2021, 11:03
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Originally Posted by ORAC
I’d suggest more of an interest in a corridor all the way to Transnistria in Moldova. That would deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea and regain the major port of Odessa….
Could possibly be a target.
with a move to take a land corridor back to Kaliningrad and it’s warm water Baltic port.
I doubt it.
How would Russia achieve that without invading NATO territory with all possible and likely consequences?
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Old 7th Dec 2021, 19:42
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I know the US became increasingly fast and loose with treaties during the Trump rein but it looks like the UK will be on this path with the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances apparently in the bin. Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons in 1996 in exchange for assurances on its security and sovereignty.

Not a great lesson for those countries considering their own nuclear weapons future. Nuclear weapons seemingly matter much more than treaties with the major powers when it comes to defending oneself. Now about that NATO treaty...
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Old 8th Dec 2021, 08:24
  #303 (permalink)  
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https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...vades-ukraine/

How might allies respond if Russia invades Ukraine?

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...nvasion-523884

Biden warns Putin on call against Ukraine invasion

Last edited by ORAC; 8th Dec 2021 at 08:45.
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Old 8th Dec 2021, 09:08
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"Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons i"

that and the death of Gadhafi show why N Korea and Iran are busting their guts to be N powers
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Old 8th Dec 2021, 14:37
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Hmmmm....

https://dailycaller.com/2021/12/08/r...clear-weapons/

Republican Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker said Tuesday that President Joe Biden shouldn’t rule out “nuclear action” against Russia over its military build-up along the Ukraine’s border.
Wicker, the second-highest ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, gave an interview Tuesday to Fox News’ Neil Cavuto, during which he spoke of the need for “tougher” military measures in response to Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine.The senator noted that there are already more than 200 U.S. National Guard troops on Ukrainian soil.
“I would not rule out military action,” he said. “I think we start making mistake when we take options off the table. I would hope the president keeps that option on the table.”

When asked to clarify what he meant by “military action,” Wicker recounted measures ranging from the American “ships in the Black Sea” to “first-use nuclear action.” (RELATED: Biden To Threaten Putin With ‘Significant And Severe Economic Harm’ If Russia Invades Ukraine)

“We don’t rule out first-use nuclear action, we don’t think it will happen but there are certain things in negotiations, if you are going to be tough, that you don’t take off the table,” the Mississippi senator added.

Additionally, Wicker praised his Democratic counterparts’ calls for more decisive steps towards containing the Russian military aggression, which may endanger “the free Europe.”
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Old 8th Dec 2021, 15:40
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"Strategically it looks like Ukraine lost a great deal when it gave up the last of its nuclear weapons i"

that and the death of Gadhafi show why N Korea and Iran are busting their guts to be N powers
Have to agree that the takeaway for any nation with an overbearing neighbour and/or any despot looking to secure his position is to acquire nuclear weapons at all costs.
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Old 8th Dec 2021, 21:24
  #307 (permalink)  
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 11:16
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one Question,

Part of Bidens sanctions involves the Nord pipeline, but if Russia invades and takes the Ukraine which I hope does not happen, he would then control the pipeline through the Ukraine so the Nord Pipeline would not really matter.in the then scheme of things.

Also refusing to help the country by putting troops in surely is kicking the legs out from under the Ukraine and virtually telling Putin he is free to invade wherever he chooses free from repercussions because the west will not intervene. So much for promises made when they agreed to disarm their nuclear stockpiles and sadly it means no one else will when given assurances from any western country, and that includes us. If the Ukraine is attacked do they have the abilty to destroy the gas pipeline to the west in retaliation against Russia? rather Like Saddam and the oil fields.
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 11:26
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You are presuming that they Ukrainian don’t have a scorched earth plan of destroying the pipeline and pumping stations across the country as they retreat. Why leave it to fall into Russian hands?
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 12:44
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Are we considering that it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine rather than a limited incursion to secure certain 'russian' enclaves?
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 14:45
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Some reports that small arms and Javelin anti-tank weapons have been delivered to Kiev /Kyiv .
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 15:45
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Originally Posted by unmanned_droid
Are we considering that it would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine rather than a limited incursion to secure certain 'russian' enclaves?
Most likely option (also to secure the land-bridge to the Crimean peninsula) - leave the rest of the country for some possible future date. I wonder if Vlad would consider this worthwhile given the likely economic and material/manpower cost?

Some reports that small arms and Javelin anti-tank weapons have been delivered to Kiev /Kyiv .
Small beer in the grand scheme, although Russian armour does seem particularly susceptible to modern AT weaponry.
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 16:08
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Most likely option (also to secure the land-bridge to the Crimean peninsula) - leave the rest of the country for some possible future date. I wonder if Vlad would consider this worthwhile given the likely economic and material/manpower cost?



Small beer in the grand scheme, although Russian armour does seem particularly susceptible to modern AT weaponry.
Somewhere in the fine print of the many warnings regarding mutual assured destruction there is reference to targeting the factories where weapons are manufactured . Small detail , but the Devil can be hidden in the details.
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 16:12
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It seems the drone attacks are getting to them as well and they are putting protection in place on their tanks.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ears-in-crimea


In occupied #Crimea, this #Russia|n tank is fitted with what looks like a type of slat armour over the turret specifically designed to protect against top down attack like the Javelin ATGM, which are now in use by #Ukraine’s armed forces:
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 17:15
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It seems the drone attacks are getting to them as well and they are putting protection in place on their tanks.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ears-in-crimea
Hmmm, dunno, doesn't really look convincing to me. Don't think a Javelin will bother even a bit. Nor an SDB. Looks rather desperate...
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 17:46
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The EU, NATO and the US have basically turned their backs on Ukraine. They are giving flowers and sympathy cards. Along with some threats of sanctions. We know how successful they have been with Russia before.
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 18:13
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Radford Doctrine ?

...
Why wait in the cold until the New Year ?

Strike on Christmas Eve. Home by Hogmanay.

Anyone remember the Radford Doctrine ?
...
LFH

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Old 9th Dec 2021, 18:47
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Everything seems to be set, all thats missing is the Ukrainian version of Arthur Seyss-Inquart asking for Putins "help".
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 20:25
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It will be costly.
The US might retaliate by cutting Russia from the international Swift financial system.
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Old 9th Dec 2021, 21:53
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
It will be costly.
The US might retaliate by cutting Russia from the international Swift financial system.
Right, because the Biden administration has demonstrated itself to be so effective at discouraging international bad actors...
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