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Old 20th Oct 2023, 11:03
  #1821 (permalink)  
 
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Personally I think that the VS MCO is the one route out of all those listed above that would do better at GLA than EDI.
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Old 20th Oct 2023, 18:30
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MANMCO does have an A333 on the second flight.
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Old 20th Oct 2023, 21:39
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Originally Posted by willy wombat
Personally I think that the VS MCO is the one route out of all those listed above that would do better at GLA than EDI.
yes dont think 3-4 times a week even on 747 were ever in 70’s in August
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 00:12
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
I think perhaps Virgin's Orlando run might make more sense on the A330-300 based on these numbers?
Tricky if the MAN-MCO rotations are doing better though, and may be better suited to the A35K?
If they increased frequency perhaps, but monthly pax total is >100% capacity if operated on A333 at current frequency. Increased flexibility on the route might also improve uptake, as I'm sure there are still significant numbers not using the direct routing given the limited days of operation.

Only 3 of the 9 MCO rotations were operated by the A35K leisure fleet in August, otherwise the load factor may well have been lower. I presume this is because the 2x leisure config aircraft were kept at MAN given English school holidays. During August, EDI seemed to be operating predominantly on a W pattern with an LHR originating aircraft.
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 02:24
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Originally Posted by Planeraz
August 23 Pax Numbers

Aug 23 - 1,480,878 (up 24% on Aug 22 - 1,199,075)

Almost identical to Aug 19 - 1,479,855

Some approx LF’s for certain routes. UA had a few cancellations in Aug. Delta also had a couple. AC also had a cancellation. Delta best performing route in S23 was Atlanta, which also had the shortest run by far. Already on sale for S24. I wonder if they may extend into October in line with the other routes?

QR - Doha 30,822 or 99%
TK - Istanbul 11,762 or 98%
AC - Toronto 15,933 or 96%
WS - Calgary 7,901 or 84%
HU - Beijing 3,327 or 72%
VS - Orlando 4,847 or 72%
UA - Newark 18,701 or 90%
UA - Chicago 8,928 or 86%
UA - Washington 9,957 or 92%
DL - JFK 12,442 or 94%
DL - Boston 11,313 or 87%
DL - Atlanta 12,616 or 95%
I have YYC much higher at 95%, and IAD lower at 84% by my reckoning.
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 12:18
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August

Originally Posted by GoEDI
I have YYC much higher at 95%, and IAD lower at 84% by my reckoning.
QR - Doha 30,822 or 99% - I have 97% - CAA shows 125 rotations - was there an extra?
TK - Istanbul 11,762 or 98% - I have 95% - 10 sectors by the A333 289 seats per planespotters.net
AC - Toronto 15,933 or 96% - I have 92% - 28 sectors by the 788 255 seats and 34 sectors by the 789 298 seats
WS - Calgary 7,901 or 84% - I have 94% - 26 sectors per CAA 322 seats
HU - Beijing 3,327 or 72% - same
VS - Orlando 4,847 or 72% - I have 73% if planepotters.net is correct 8 sectors by 335 seater and 10 by 397 seater
UA - Newark 18,701 or 90% - agreed
UA - Chicago 8,928 or 86% - I have 89-90% as CAA shows only 58 sectors operated
UA - Washington 9,957 or 92% - same
DL - JFK 12,442 or 94% - I have 89% as 62 sectors all but one on 226 seater (if plane spotters.net is correct at 226)
DL - Boston 11,313 or 87% - I have 82% as s 62 sectors all but one on 226 seater (if plane spotters.net is correct at 226)
DL - Atlanta 12,616 or 95% - Not checked each flight but based on 226 it would be 90%

The above of course are subject to the config being corrected and to be fair I have not used the airlines own sites and if Delta is wrong it would be good to know. Boston looks ideal for the A21N if they ever cross the pond with Delta

Pete
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 18:01
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interesting to see such variations in the figures we’re often presented with…
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 19:17
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Stats

Originally Posted by CabinCrewe
interesting to see such variations in the figures we’re often presented with…
Some of it is down to interpretation of the configuration and whether cancellations should be counted or not. I have used the number of flights that operated as per the CAA punctuality stats which I probably should have credited and FR24 for the actual aircraft that was on the route each day but I didn't bother with United as their 757 configs are not too dissimilar.

Some can never be 100% accurate without insider knowledge as to where the business curtain ends on certain airlines although out the ones above only Turkish would fall into that category if they used one type of A321. Seat guru shows three configs, two for the A321, one includes business 3+3 with the middle seat blocked, the other is fixed 2+2 in business as is the A21N. I used the A21N config of 182 which I believe is correct as FR24 shows all flights were operated by this type and not the A321.

However having said all that, some of the original figures quoted were clearly wrong. What should not be disputed is the average pax per flight as the figure is supplied by the CAA.

Pete
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 22:31
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There was an extra QR rotation in August in the form of LAX-DOH diverting in with a medical emergency, is this what the CAA have picked up?

I have Westjet's B789 as seating 320?

Yes load factors can always be open to slightly different interpretations given differing configs, cancellations etc. Pax per flight carried is much easier to calculate. I'm not going to bother debating differences of 1 or 2%, but each time I see these figures posted here they have always had notable discrepancies in them that I have felt obliged to query.

If you're both getting 92% for IAD though, I am now doubting myself on that one! Can I ask how you are getting this from what should have been 46 B75W rotations, and 16 B764 rotations?
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 23:01
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August

Originally Posted by GoEDI
There was an extra QR rotation in August in the form of LAX-DOH diverting in with a medical emergency, is this what the CAA have picked up?

I have Westjet's B789 as seating 320?

Yes load factors can always be open to slightly different interpretations given differing configs, cancellations etc. Pax per flight carried is much easier to calculate. I'm not going to bother debating differences of 1 or 2%, but each time I see these figures posted here they have always had notable discrepancies in them that I have felt obliged to query.

If you're both getting 92% for IAD though, I am now doubting myself on that one! Can I ask how you are getting this from what should have been 46 B75W rotations, and 16 B764 rotations?
I suspect you are spot on with the Qatar divert and I wonder if they have included the transit passengers in the figures.

Westjet - just checked 3 other sites and they all show 320 but not a great difference but more likely an arithmetically error on my part

Apologies re Washington I must have copied the wrong flight number as you say nowhere near 92%. I noted down all 757's which clearly was not the case. I assume I put the Chicago flight number back in and saw all 757's. The is one low figure for August sounds like the 757 all month would havre been a better idea

This just reinforces the original figures were a little out in some instances and way out on a couple.

Pete

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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 23:44
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Load factors can be misleading in cases of the operating aircraft was not the type *SOLD*. Hence the Virgin A350s with the lower capacity and the United B767 swaps when sold as B757s might make a small % dent. The key insight is % of seats sold, not necessarily the same as the load factor on the day when equipment is swapped.
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Old 22nd Oct 2023, 23:51
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Originally Posted by OltonPete
I suspect you are spot on with the Qatar divert and I wonder if they have included the transit passengers in the figures.

Westjet - just checked 3 other sites and they all show 320 but not a great difference but more likely an arithmetically error on my part

Apologies re Washington I must have copied the wrong flight number as you say nowhere near 92%. I noted down all 757's which clearly was not the case. I assume I put the Chicago flight number back in and saw all 757's. The is one low figure for August sounds like the 757 all month would havre been a better idea

This just reinforces the original figures were a little out in some instances and way out on a couple.

Pete
I don't believe transit pax are included, only those dis/embarking through the terminal. So it should just be the 2 LAX originating pax who disembarked at EDI recorded, which they were, and nothing added to DOH figures.

Out of interest, what CAA resource is it you are using to display total rotations on a route for the month?

Wouldn't say 84% is the end of the world, UA only loaded the B764 onto the route for August at the end of May, so not very much time at all to fill the additional capacity. That said, the monthly average doesn't tell the whole story, as from what I saw, generally it's the early/mid week flights that were running a bit lighter on B75W, and the B764 was justified on the busier weekend runs.
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Old 23rd Oct 2023, 06:51
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
Load factors can be misleading in cases of the operating aircraft was not the type *SOLD*. Hence the Virgin A350s with the lower capacity and the United B767 swaps when sold as B757s might make a small % dent. The key insight is % of seats sold, not necessarily the same as the load factor on the day when equipment is swapped.
Absolutely. It's what sold that is of relevance (so far as load factors are relevant...)
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Old 23rd Oct 2023, 08:53
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LF’s

Lots of discussion and points of view regarding how certain people including myself calculate LF’s. I always caveat information I post with the word approx. I don’t proclaim to be 100% accurate. Unless you happen to be a data analyst with access to ALL data or information, no one is in a position to be 100% accurate. As others have commented on, swap out of equipment or general equipment variations from the scheduled aircraft impact on calculations.

In the bigger picture, S23 has been a successful one for EDI. Pax numbers not only back to but slightly ahead of pre pandemic - 2019 levels. Certain other airports in the UK such as Cardiff have not recovered at all from the pandemic. State owned and led by a Welsh gov who have some very anti aviation policies. Thank goodness EDI is not state owned as I believe the airport would be in a similar position to Cardiff for the same reasons.

Moving forward into W23, airlines around the world appear to be scaling back certain operations. Suspending routes or cutting frequencies. The state of Global economics kicking in perhaps.. So far however confidence for S24 appears to be strong. Continued growth for EDI? Who knows. US pre-clearance could be the key for continued growth into 2025 and beyond. Infrastructure and substantial investment by the owners is another huge question, yet to be answered. No one doubts that serious investment is required to take the airport to the next level. The obvious requirement is to create a terminal or infrastructure able to cope with peak demands. IF pre-clearance has been secured, something has to happen and quickly to put the airport in the best possible position to grow.
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Old 23rd Oct 2023, 23:04
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
Load factors can be misleading in cases of the operating aircraft was not the type *SOLD*. Hence the Virgin A350s with the lower capacity and the United B767 swaps when sold as B757s might make a small % dent. The key insight is % of seats sold, not necessarily the same as the load factor on the day when equipment is swapped.
Whilst I agree with the point, in this case the B764s on IAD are as scheduled and not last min equipment swaps, even if the lead time to upgrade was short. It's also very possible the VS A35K config changes were pre-planned weeks/months ago to align with English school hols and sold as such, but we can't say for sure. Even the TK A330s were pre-planned a few weeks in advance in most cases. So it's a bit of a minefield on most routes these days either way, but interesting to get some insight into route popularity anyway.
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Old 24th Oct 2023, 09:28
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I must say I do find it odd that people quibble over other people's hard work to work out LF. arguing the toss over 3 or 5 %

At the end of the day the yield is the important thing, and only the airline will know this. The actual number of passengers who flew these routes, remains the same despite how much some people don't like it

without the LFs the Pax number in themselves are quite remarkable for the month. and yet with these passenger numbers we still here comparisons of EDI with CWL or SOU, quote the barmy take



QR - Doha 30,822
TK - Istanbul 11,762
AC - Toronto 15,933
WS - Calgary 7,901
HU - Beijing 3,327
VS - Orlando 4,847
UA - Newark 18,701
UA - Chicago 8,928
UA - Washington 9,957
DL - JFK 12,442
DL - Boston 11,313
DL - Atlanta 12,616

Last edited by tictack67; 24th Oct 2023 at 21:33.
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Old 24th Oct 2023, 11:13
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Agreed - LF's are interesting for statistical purposes but it's also how much each passenger is paying that the airlines make or break routes on? Of course, none of us have access to this data

Looking at pax figures alone these are an excellent set of results for EDI. However, as has been said many times before, a particular flight can be full every day but not be making money due to the fares that have been paid.

I am NOT suggesting this is the case on any of the EDI routes examined above!
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Old 24th Oct 2023, 11:23
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There have always been two classes of A350, The premium fleet and holiday fleet both based at LHR with 2/3 of the holiday fleet interchanging with MAN in summer
and 1/2 in winter
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Old 24th Oct 2023, 13:54
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https://airwaysmag.com/united-first-a321neo-aircraft/
If nothing else, despatch reliability should become much better.

I have an ask, has anyone flown United out of Scotland? The reason I ask is that in daytime flights, the one and only United flight I took on LHR-SFO was mandatory shades down and darkened cabin from the end of meal service, as this was the preference for seemingly most ot the US passengers. It's a very different culture from BA or Virgin to although whom many shades are closed but ambient daylight os still prevalent. You often see US majors taxi-ing on long haul out with most of the window shades closed (it;s not an FAA requirement to be open for take off and landing). Are the Scotland flights also flown in darkness?
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Old 24th Oct 2023, 14:23
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
https://airwaysmag.com/united-first-a321neo-aircraft/
If nothing else, despatch reliability should become much better.

I have an ask, has anyone flown United out of Scotland? The reason I ask is that in daytime flights, the one and only United flight I took on LHR-SFO was mandatory shades down and darkened cabin from the end of meal service, as this was the preference for seemingly most ot the US passengers. It's a very different culture from BA or Virgin to although whom many shades are closed but ambient daylight istill prevalent. You often see US majors taxi-ing on long haul out with most of the window shades closed (it;s not an FAA requirement to be open for take off and landing). Are the Scotland flights also flown in darkness?
Twice with UA in past 3 months with Work. Both times into Newark. No mandatory shades down. I have also flown with American from LHR to ORD this year. On a 789. The crew did dim the shades and locked them as they can do on Dreamliners. Appears to be an ad-hoc decision from the crew operating that day.
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