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Old 14th Dec 2022, 15:06
  #821 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 4eyed anorak
Out of curiosity, has the C.A.A. stop publishing the monthly airport data? Nothing put up since the September readings were taken.

Regards 4ea
Funny I was thinking exactly the same……
last update to Sept figures was in November.
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Old 14th Dec 2022, 15:20
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Originally Posted by Rutan16
The 764s used on Washington were NOT driven by demand more rather aircraft utilisation .

The 764 is primarily used on economy heavy routes from the east coast whilst most of the 763 fleet are now very premium heavy

Indeed those premium heavy 763s have Fewer seats than the 757s and just 99 in steerage and I don’t think the 757 are used on many other routes from Dulles anyway.

I suppose the question remains why/if Washington ( albeit limited programme) is even viable to be honest - Except as a secondary feeder and spoke beyond IAD and reliever for Newark ( that was the case at Manchester a few years back)

No disrespect Edinburgh must have cut a favourable deal with United and Delta behind the scenes.

And true high season US point of sale is a magnitude stronger than Manchester however falls off a cliff pretty quickly.
If there’s no demand how come United and Delta still have routes through W22?

From what I have seen the IAD route performed strongly in S22 so really don’t get where you think that it’s not a viable route.
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Old 14th Dec 2022, 16:54
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Originally Posted by Sk1schoolsam
If there’s no demand how come United and Delta still have routes through W22? From what I have seen the IAD route performed strongly in S22 so really don’t get where you think that it’s not a viable route.
Indeed all UA routes performed strongly from EDI this summer. ​​​​​​​As for the CAA stats, suspect October's will be due any day now. Usually a month or 2 behind.
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Old 14th Dec 2022, 17:30
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Originally Posted by GrahamK
Indeed all UA routes performed strongly from EDI this summer. As for the CAA stats, suspect October's will be due any day now. Usually a month or 2 behind.
They did (although I acknowledge that load factors are not the only representative of a route's success) and just as a reminder, I have borrowed the load factors from the EDI forum (although couldn't find July). Certainly suggests the demand is there:
  • BOS (DL 763), June - 96%, August - 91%, September - 93%
  • JFK (DL 763), June - 99%, August - 94%, September - 95%
  • EWR (UA 752), June - 92%, August - 92%, September - 94%
  • IAD (UA 764), June - 96%, August - 90%, September - 91%
  • ORD (UA 752), June - did not operate, August - 87%, September - 95%
Interestingly also the combo of AC and WS on YYZ operating both 7M8 (WS) and 788/9 (AC) were:
  • YYZ, June - 87%, August - 89%, September - 89%
Of course WS's route to YYZ is now gone and replaced by YYC on a 789 for Summer 2023.
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Old 14th Dec 2022, 17:35
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Originally Posted by Rutan16
The 764s used on Washington were NOT driven by demand more rather aircraft utilisation .

The 764 is primarily used on economy heavy routes from the east coast whilst most of the 763 fleet are now very premium heavy

Indeed those premium heavy 763s have Fewer seats than the 757s and just 99 in steerage and I don’t think the 757 are used on many other routes from Dulles anyway.

I suppose the question remains why/if Washington ( albeit limited programme) is even viable to be honest - Except as a secondary feeder and spoke beyond IAD and reliever for Newark ( that was the case at Manchester a few years back)

No disrespect Edinburgh must have cut a favourable deal with United and Delta behind the scenes.

And true high season US point of sale is a magnitude stronger than Manchester however falls off a cliff pretty quickly.
EDI has a strong inbound pull for seasonal tourism, it's a great city break as well as the clear long haul gateway to Scotland and parts of Northern England. Have the management at EDI cut a good deal with their airlines? I should imagine so, compare this to GLA who simply can't compete anymore. I
am surprised UA offer IAD, EWR and ORD, it used to be 2 x EWR and I was impressed by that. But summer traffic is much about US tourists making the best use of $USD buying power in years. Which partly explains why old favourite Orlando is on the floor while BOS/IAD have bounced back.

Flipping the question, how come MAN can't hold onto a single US carrier? Perhaps there's something to be said for cutting a deal?
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Old 14th Dec 2022, 18:29
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
Have the management at EDI cut a good deal with their airlines?
Especially if theres a potential sale on the cards… the sustainability of such deals show when routes come and go over varying duration cycles. If they can’t manage high loads at the height of summer in an inbound dollar frenzy, I don’t know when they could.
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Old 14th Dec 2022, 18:30
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
EDI has a strong inbound pull for seasonal tourism, it's a great city break as well as the clear long haul gateway to Scotland and parts of Northern England. Have the management at EDI cut a good deal with their airlines? I should imagine so, compare this to GLA who simply can't compete anymore. I
am surprised UA offer IAD, EWR and ORD, it used to be 2 x EWR and I was impressed by that. But summer traffic is much about US tourists making the best use of $USD buying power in years. Which partly explains why old favourite Orlando is on the floor while BOS/IAD have bounced back.

Flipping the question, how come MAN can't hold onto a single US carrier? Perhaps there's something to be said for cutting a deal?
Skip go read my earlier post I acknowledged that Edinburgh has high albeit exceptionally seasonal US point of sale advantage; we aren’t disagreeing in anyway !

What I was simply saying and for third time use of the 764 was for utilisation on the short seasonal service and should not be considered in isolation of empirical evidence for very high demand or profitability and you of all know that scenario well enough.

As for Manchester sure the dynamic is very much UK point of sale however I remain of the opinion United will return in 2024 with the replacement of the 757 .

I also expect Delta to open Boston in the same time frame and I have read somewhere ( third hand so no citation afraid to say) that MAG are seeking restoration of San Francisco probably with Virgin again 2024 seems likely.

Delta remains present in the market via the VS joint venture on New York and Atlanta routes in particular.

I do have concerns for the strength of Orlando particularly through the second half of 2023 with current domestic economic conditions.

MAG - May yet be making deals however I have no specific evidence either way.

Since the reopening of most international traffic flows, massive labour shortages I think MAG Group has been prioritising and consolidating rather than expanding - that said Kuwait and Gulf Air have been added whilst Hong Kong and mainland China services have been restored .

And the guys and lassies from Dallas have abandoned almost everywhere in Europe sans Heathrow and their mates hubs in EU centres.

Only exception of any significance being Italy and a cruise season to Athens

Now would this post probably be better in the dedicated Manchester thread sure but I think the points are pertinent right here in explaining the entire reason for the comments up stream specifically the use of the 764 by United nothing else.

I haven’t commented on Chicago largely because it was an even shorter season and I don’t know enough about why United even bothered to be honest - As a transit a hub for both AA and UA it’s had its day


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Old 15th Dec 2022, 09:43
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Fuel issues at EDI:

Q) EGPX/QFULT/IV/NBO /A /000/999/5557N00322W
A) EGPH
B) 22/12/14 15:15 C) 22/12/21 15:15
E) REFUELING CANNOT BE GUARANTEED DUE ONGOING TECHNICAL ISSUES WITH EXTERNAL ACFT FUEL SUPPLIERS, ACFT OPERATORS TO MAXIMISE INBOUND TANKER

This mornings EWR flight operated via GLA. I suspect a few others may do too.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 13:39
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Air France have brought back their later morning flight for S23 from 28/3/23.

AF1686 10:20 CDG-EDI
AF1687 11:55 EDI-CDG

This will avoid some long connection times at CDG for connecting flights.
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 14:55
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Originally Posted by Breathe
Air France have brought back their later morning flight for S23 from 28/3/23.

AF1686 10:20 CDG-EDI
AF1687 11:55 EDI-CDG

This will avoid some long connection times at CDG for connecting flights.
Looks like on three days of the week
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Old 15th Dec 2022, 15:45
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Originally Posted by CabinCrewe
Looks like on three days of the week
Correct. on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Frequency still below pre pandemic levels, but a step in the right direction. AF will also benefit from KLM cuts. I’m sure this is probably part of the reason for the increase.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 05:54
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Originally Posted by Breathe
Air France have brought back their later morning flight for S23 from 28/3/23.

AF1686 10:20 CDG-EDI
AF1687 11:55 EDI-CDG

This will avoid some long connection times at CDG for connecting flights.
All flights will be on Air France metal.

Midmorning flight will be A320
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 06:34
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Lufthansa

Summer 2023

LH keeping Their morning 0600hrs night stopper (A320)

The lunchtime and evening flight will be A321

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Old 16th Dec 2022, 12:19
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Originally Posted by 4eyed anorak
Out of curiosity, has the C.A.A. stop publishing the monthly airport data? Nothing put up since the September readings were taken.

Regards 4ea
October stats are available
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 12:50
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
October stats are available
Qatar carried 16230 in October. Used 788 and 359’s. A rough calc gives a LF of around 98%. Impressive stats again.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 13:54
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Originally Posted by Planeraz
Qatar carried 16230 in October. Used 788 and 359’s. A rough calc gives a LF of around 98%. Impressive stats again.
Very impressive. You can see why they are considering double daily.

Also worth noting given discussions up thread that the route to North America with the most pax carried in October was, yes you’ve guessed it - IAD (with 12,993 pax). EWR was 10,153 and JFK was 9,415.
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 14:41
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Originally Posted by A350Saltire
Very impressive. You can see why they are considering double daily.

Also worth noting given discussions up thread that the route to North America with the most pax carried in October was, yes you’ve guessed it - IAD (with 12,993 pax). EWR was 10,153 and JFK was 9,415.
Yet can we see recovery margins - Probably not

New York healthy enough sure can’t argue. Want to see New York through November as a stand-alone US point of entry/ exit .

Washington actually had similar high load factors prior to removal at Manchester, however abysmal recovery rates for both BMI and later United over the years . Not to discredit to Edinburgh right now.

And with the 764 one doesn’t need to look too deeply at the motives to flog many of the 203 economy seats very competitively especially in the US markers.

Remember COVID and it’s effects a significant amount of the domestic US clientele were holding massive amounts of redeemable vouchers and some holiday entitlement subject to personal contracts and that they had to use up this past summer.

These voucher redemptions are now largely spent both sides of the Atlantic today.

2022 is a difficult year to measure and base future projections imho.




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Old 16th Dec 2022, 15:00
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2022 will be a year like no others to spend USD in the UK, that alone is enough to give some confidence. Interesting parallel with BMI's MAN-IAD, the way to think about this, is that MAN-IAD vs. IAD-EDI I think. Point of sale was predominantly UK in the first and seems to be US skewed in the latter. Which may also explain why the Thomas Cook US routes are still a gap at MAN, as UK POS dominated and that's relatively weaker now.
It's funny how we get fixated with long haul and the big jets, STN,MAN, LGW,GLA thread all similar sentiments
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Old 16th Dec 2022, 15:48
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Originally Posted by Planeraz
Qatar carried 16230 in October. Used 788 and 359’s. A rough calc gives a LF of around 98%. Impressive stats again.
US Routes - Approx LF’s

JFK reduced to 5 x weekly mid October. IAD ended 27th.

JFK - 99%
EWR - 97%
IAD - 98%

Canada

YYZ - 95%

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Old 17th Dec 2022, 07:59
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overall quite a few long haul routes worldwide are flying near full - the question is are they making enough money at current oil prices to encourage them to start expanding back pre-covid frequencies?
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