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Old 3rd Sep 2015, 12:32
  #2741 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair website shows they will go full double daily on MAN-BCN and MAN-ALC, as well as daily MAN-IBZ.

Funny how they are so far the only 3 routes to see increases, and just so happen to be 3 destinations Vueling are due to announce and increase ex-MAN.

If RYR announce Santiago and Seville, then the defensive move is complete.

Edit to add, Valencia and Girona go 3 weekly each, sure they were just 2 weekly before. Shannon reduces from daily to 5 weekly. Bremen makes it as a year round route once more.

Last edited by LAX_LHR; 3rd Sep 2015 at 12:50.
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Old 3rd Sep 2015, 14:55
  #2742 (permalink)  
 
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Greater Manchester's bumper 7bn devolution wish list sent to George Osborne - Manchester Evening News

The interesting bit here is the aspiration to control APD or more specifically the authority to leave it absent from new routes.

It raises a number of Qs insofar as inheriting the control but then of course having to raise other taxes to make up any shortfall.

Secondly is it really feasible to charge one lot of passengers APD but not the other?
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Old 4th Sep 2015, 08:16
  #2743 (permalink)  
 
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THOMSON

Interesting report from Anna Aero on Thomson.

Thomson Airways planning over 20 new routes for S16

Although the headline refers to over 20 new routes for s2016, it later states 24 but the specific ones mentioned for STN, BHX, BRS and Doncaster only add to 12. I think Aruba is starting from MAN but do we know of any others?

In terms of weekly departures for Aug'15, MAN with 170 was second to LGW on 191, with BHX a respectable third but less than half that of MAN.

Whether the new routes will halt the slow decline in total pax numbers since 2008 (apart from some growth in 2011) remains to be seen, and I imagine will also depend on what routes are being dropped or frequencies reduced for next summer.
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Old 4th Sep 2015, 08:48
  #2744 (permalink)  
 
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The other new routes for Thomson ex-MAN are Keflavik this winter and the re-start of Luxor.

I find Thomson to be pretty quiet when it comes to MAN, we no longer see the headline grabbing new routes from them, instead just the odd 1 or 2 per year.

In terms of MAN, the ones to watch in the next 1-3 years will be:

Thomas Cook. They have a lot more plans for long haul, and in the next few years are going to plug a lot of the long desired routes, if their recent expansion pays off.

Vueling. They have made no secret internally that they want MAN to be a base, and growth from then is not a question of 'if', but 'when'.

Ryanair. They are on their growth trajectory anyway, but, as we have already seen, they also aim to protect their market share. Look to be 8 based next year for example.

Jet2. With the purchase of new aircraft and seem to be at least partly on finance, instead of the outright upfront purchase, we may see their winter policy change, and press more aircraft into service rather than sit around for days on end. This could mean more passengers in winter, and, helps address the seasonality imbalance.

I don't think we are going to see a Norwegian base in the short to Medium term. Our incumbent low costs have the majority of Europe covered, and, Thomas Cook is already doing for long haul what Norwegian could ever hope to do.

The beauty with Thomas Cook doing what it's doing means we have a higher volume on the A330 than the B787, so, more pax. They want to install wifi on the A330 fleet and offer connections via other carriers, so, on par with Norwegian for that, don't seem to have p*ssed off any of the bigger carriers so can carry on expanding 'under the radar' so to speak, and are long established so haven't had to set up any foreign subsidiaries to avoid whatever it is Norwegian are trying to avoid.

MAN has done well to facilitate what Thomas Cook are doing.
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Old 4th Sep 2015, 10:29
  #2745 (permalink)  
 
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CARGO

LAX, I think this is what you mentioned last week, now in Routesonline.

AirBridge Cargo Debuts in Singapore; Manchester set to Follow :: Routesonline
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Old 4th Sep 2015, 10:56
  #2746 (permalink)  
 
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Thats the badger MANFOD.

I believe the first routes will be MAN-MOW/PHL/ATL/JFK/SEA and SFO. Could be more points going east of the venture proves successful too.
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Old 5th Sep 2015, 10:15
  #2747 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE][Edit to add, Valencia and Girona go 3 weekly each, sure they were just 2 weekly before. Shannon reduces from daily to 5 weekly. Bremen makes it as a year round route once more.
/QUOTE]

Unless the route is late being loaded, it would appear that Ryanair are dropping Tallinn from Manchester for S2016. The increase in frequencies on some routes is to be welcomed (provided those to BCN, ALC and IBZ don't deter Vueling), but it's a pity if we lose a destination to a part of Europe not particularly well served from MAN and even where services do operate, frequencies are modest.

Iberia Express start MAD in a few days I believe, but I'm slightly puzzled by the choice of days of operation - Tues, Wed and Sat. although the Wed. flight is dropped for the winter. Are the days relevant in terms of onward connections to S America for example?
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Old 5th Sep 2015, 11:35
  #2748 (permalink)  
 
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Unless the route is late being loaded, it would appear that Ryanair are dropping Tallinn from Manchester for S2016. The increase in frequencies on some routes is to be welcomed (provided those to BCN, ALC and IBZ don't deter Vueling), but it's a pity if we lose a destination to a part of Europe not particularly well served from MAN and even where services do operate, frequencies are modest.
 Iberia Express start MAD in a few days I believe, but I'm slightly puzzled by the choice of days of operation - Tues, Wed and Sat. although the Wed. flight is dropped for the winter. Are the days relevant in terms of onward connections to S America for example?
Afraid those Baltic routes are just not performing with adequate yield, even from London these days.

The IB2 service allows connections onto the very late flights to Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Peru via Lan, however interestingly they have filled the gap with Ryan giving a daily service pattern!

Could attract off peak tourist I suppose , however not particularly business friendly with little scope for even trips of few working days imo.

Saturday evening departures are certainly cheap and that's because its unpopular with most tourists and useless for business travel !

This service will need rejigging or it will go away again imo.

All that said Iberia historically operated the direct service to Madrid on Tuesday/Thursday and Saturday with Wednesday/Friday and Sunday going via Barcelona two decades ago.
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Old 5th Sep 2015, 17:23
  #2749 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LAX_LHR View Post
Ryanair. They are on their growth trajectory anyway, but, as we have already seen, they also aim to protect their market share. Look to be 8 based next year for example.

I don't think we are going to see a Norwegian base in the short to Medium term. Our incumbent low costs have the majority of Europe covered, and, Thomas Cook is already doing for long haul what Norwegian could ever hope to do.

The beauty with Thomas Cook doing what it's doing means we have a higher volume on the A330 than the B787, so, more pax.
I can see the relationship between MAG and FR growing into something that allows them to grow at MAG airports substantially over the next few years. Whilst MAN T3 is so busy, as other carriers move to T2 then i can see FR expanding into that space more and more.

On Tommy Cook, does anyone have an idea as to the level of feed they are getting onto their Long Haul from the setup with FlyBe?
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Old 5th Sep 2015, 18:38
  #2750 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair

Interesting times for Ryanair also, Gavin, as they change their focus from secondary to primary airports. There is some risk attached to their strategy. Whatever you may think of their ethics, the brand was very strong, being noted as being low cost and no frills. As they change, what do you now note them as being? Low cost? Not particularly, in my experience. Their fares appear to be moving towards those of their competitors. No frills? Not really, rules are being relaxed under the badge of being more friendly. If you diminish the strengths of the brand, you are no longer brand leader. Hello Schiphol, goodbye fast turnaround (Polderbaan departure, anyone?). If I were a shareholder, I would be asking some difficult questions of MOL.
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Old 5th Sep 2015, 19:52
  #2751 (permalink)  
 
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If I were a shareholder, I would be asking some difficult questions of MOL.
Really the same shareholders who's share in the company are rising and have received a nice dividend recently
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Old 5th Sep 2015, 20:25
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Shareholders

There are many examples of companies losing their focus and trying to be something they are not....with disastrous consequences. Short term gains are impressive, long term futures are not. I speak as a former RBS Regional Manager, but see Hanson, Helical Bar etc etc
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 08:44
  #2753 (permalink)  
 
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Eye2Eye5

The Ryan business is mature huge and short term driven huge growth potential probably long past now.

The Low cost business model wasn't really predicated around consistent low fares - That was just marketing !

They were and are more accurately a flexible fares carrier operating complex algorithms to ensure maximum revenue recovery on every flight - Times they charge more than the legacies !

Low Cost is really about contracting just about everything possible (and some things they probably shouldn't have) - Shifting risk to contractors including staff !

Wherever available taking advantage of short term subsidies included

Resultant margin manipulation and effective fiscal control over the balance sheet.

So right now what has changed?

Let see and analyse

1. Regional and EU subsidy rules changed and funds cut/abolished or otherwise illegal

2. Legacies competitive edge eroded across short haul by retrenchment and cost cutting (focused on support of Hub and Spoke strategies and cost cutting reduced soft product and increases in seat density especially in the back of the bus -Yes BA/LH and AF have increased density in there A32x to rather close to EZY and RYR)

3. Changed travel patterns yes those East to West EU migrant movement trends are stabilising contrary to current perceived and Daily Mail driven wisdom.

4. Many many thousands nay millions of small and medium sized businesses (the main fabric of the EU economies operate in secondary cities) trade right across the regions and travel budget are typically limited - The Flexible fares carriers are aggressively targeting and being successful here.

My own travel needs are almost always better met by them than the legacies via hub and spoke and hefty day return fares

Combined with a budget hotel and evening socialising with a client can be far more successful and cheaper business wise including two days away from the desk.

All above for sure has influenced Ryanair to modify there business model going forward hence moves to capture more business types from mid and larger city pairs - Hey they'l pay more - Better yield potential.

The differences in service level with legacies (As side from their bribes) mean smaller businesses see little benefit in sending staff on a merry go round routing via hub and spokes

The fall in East- West traffic means they have airframes to relocate without extensive new deliveries being necessary.

Given just the above i don't see your concerns myself .
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 08:52
  #2754 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair. They are on their growth trajectory anyway, but, as we have already seen, they also aim to protect their market share. Look to be 8 based next year for example.
LAX, after one trawl through the Ryanair web site schedules for the first wave of departures mid July 2016, I could only come up with 6 based a/c on Mon, Wed, Fri, and Sun. with 7 based the other 3 days of the week. I think it was just August this year that had 8 based wasn't it, and I've not checked August next year.

However, I did come up with 107 weekly departures with non-based a/c, including the 42 weekly flights to DUB, which I imagine must account for about 50% of the total weekly departures. Is this a reflection on stand availability at T3 early morning?

As I say, I've not rechecked and you may well be looking at different information which is more accurate.

The other slight anomaly is that for Madrid for example in July, 5 weekly flights show fares whereas the other 2 days show 'sold out' as opposed to 'no flights', but one of those days does have fares for August.

I expect there will be changes anyway before schedules are finalised, and in cases like Madrid it may be the timing of any increased frequency. A couple of new routes wouldn't go amiss if there are gaps in the program!
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 09:24
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MANFOD,

Saturday was originally the day that showed 8 based, however, it now shows 7 based, and I cannot for the life of me remember which flights were showing to be 8 based, so, can only assume one flight has had a time change.

New routes wise

Given what's happened at Liverpool, and the fact that Kos, Rhodes and Bratislava are no longer bookable there, I would not put it past Ryanair for those routes to appear at MAN. Kos/Rhodes go against Jet2, which they seem to like, and Bratislava against Austrian/Easyjet on Vienna to try and see on or both off.

I do expect Seville and Santiago as other new routes to warn off Vueling. Bucharest would be most welcome too.

Extra flights

We have already seen Barcelona and Alicante go 2 daily, and Palma/Ibiza get extra flights, all possible Vueling routes. Valencia, Tenerife and Girona also see extra flights
I wouldn't be surprised to see Madrid go 10 weekly, with 2 flights on Tue/Wed/sat to see off I2, and 10 weekly has been rumoured in the past. Some weeks see 8 weekly this winter already, so, the foundations are there.

Gran Canaria could go 3 weekly, and hopefully Eastern Europe sees extra flights. You can't get to Poland on a Saturday from MAN, for example.
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 10:22
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Low cost? Not particularly, in my experience. Their fares appear to be moving towards those of their competitors. No frills? If you diminish the strengths of the brand, you are no longer brand leader.
Ryanair is a ULCC [Ultra Low Cost Carrier]. They are as low-cost as it gets in this industry. But in the airline industry the term 'low cost' refers to the cost-base of the company, not the fares charged to customers. Fare tariffs are determined by yield management software to maximise profit. This is not a change at Ryanair ... this is a science in which they have excelled for many years.

And Ryanair is not 'diminishing the strengths of the brand'. Quite the contrary. They are in the process of eliminating the most disliked features of the brand. And the dividends of that policy are already shining through in financial results.

Your disappointment at Ryanair's apparent decision to remove a based unit from LPL is understandable. But don't let that cloud your judgment regarding management competence at the company. They know their market niche and are 'best in class' at what they do.

As an aside, I plan to do another comparative analysis of Ryanair's respective programmes from MAN, LPL, LBA, EMA & BHX in about one month from now. I'm waiting for the Summer 2016 programme to settle down before undertaking this.
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 10:41
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And whatever the acuality the perception with the travelling public I suspect is still "low fare" in that respect I suspect they have 1st mover advantage in terms of hordes of potential passengers checking their website 1st. That has to be a major advantage!
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 11:00
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Quoting Bagso
Code:
 And whatever the acuality the perception with the travelling public I suspect is still "low fare" in that respect I suspect they have 1st mover advantage in terms of hordes of potential passengers checking their website 1st. That has to be a major advantage!
And thats what the last thirty years of marketing was about specifically driving that public perception - They have indeed been successful in that general public belief that the lowest prices are there to be had right on the Ryanair site !
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 11:39
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As an aside, I plan to do another comparative analysis of Ryanair's respective programmes from MAN, LPL, LBA, EMA & BHX in about one month from now. I'm waiting for the Summer 2016 programme to settle down before undertaking this.
That will be worth reading Shed and I'm sure you are wise to wait.

That said, with the growth already announced by Ryanair at the SE airports, I hope there is still scope for capacity increases at MAN. That announcement for STN, LTN and LGW perhaps highlighted how slightly misleading percentage increases can be. STN has a modest 5% increase compared to 13% at LTN.
Yet at STN it amounts to about an extra 56 weekly flights to 1,200 compared to around 14 more at LTN. Both significant though for those two airports.
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Old 6th Sep 2015, 13:49
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I hope there is still scope for capacity increases at MAN.
Perhaps we should instead be saying I hope there is still scope for MAN T3 to accommodate RYR capacity increases at MAN. I don't believe that Ryanair is short of airframes available for MAN, but T3 is certainly short of stands for them to use. And it appears that there are no moves to upgrade stands 56 / 57 / 58 for Ryanair use (deemed too expensive?), so we must hope that MAG has a cunning plan to accommodate additional aircraft somewhere (and I don't mean at STN! :-) ). There does not appear to be a proposal for any other carrier to move out of T3. Whilst passengers criticise the crowded T3 experience, the incumbent airlines there seem to love it.

In terms of Ryanair increases for Summer 2016, if the company carries through the new 6x Daily MAN-DUB schedule and adds the services listed by LAX_LHR, we have a healthy increase right there subject to minimal cutbacks on other routes. New routes would be nice ... MAN still has only 10 departures per week to Poland (all RYR), and Regional France and the Baltic States remain under-served. Anything new to these regions would be a pleasant surprise however, especially in the light of MAN-TLL potentially being dropped. Growth seems to be targeted at the highly-competitive Spanish leisure trunk routes and Dublin.
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