Planning for relief in the impending winter will need a massive effort whether hostilities cease or not, and are already behind the curve. Airlift capacity will be strained, sea lift needs open ports and free sea lanes, so that is an issue unless there is a ceasefire, which may be on the cards. The sooner hostilities cease the smaller the humanitarian disaster will be in Ukraine and in parts of Russia.

If a withdrawal occurs with Russian forces intact, Ukraine has to prepare for Russian European Vacation, 3.0. If Russian forces collapse and evacuate leaving the equipment behind, then there is a major delay to get to 3.0 if ever, there is a possibility that Putin gets the window treatment along with his kleptocrats. Belarus' Prez may be looking for a career change, like Mussolini had in 1945.

South Africa showed that change management could occur, almost, with Mandela's Truth Commission concept. Taking out Putin in any form that doesn't present all of the facts behind his criminality will give a martyr to a minority who are happy to have any basis to hate others. Putting him in front of a court takes the heat out of the equation. Same for the war atrocities, and those that have done them, and particularly those that oversaw, ordered, or failed to intervene. Individual acts of murder and atrocities were perpetrated, and deliberate use of missiles, cluster bombs and phosphorous against civilian targets were ordered and someone pushed the buttons. Those need to be held to account in the wash-up. The disgraceful inaction of the UN even within the framework of the UN Charter needs accountability to be taken. Russia individually needs to be removed from the UNSC completely, they are there under questionable basis, and their disinterest in security matters of others is patent. The provision of parties to conflict abstaining needs to be reassessed, as apparently the words are not clear enough for the UNDG to actually do his job, nor the UNGA to object and suspend members for disregard of the Charter.

Globally, the recovery will generate considerable economic activity, which is itself desirable. Getting Russia's house back in order is of value to the whole of the world, but not without substantive change to how they do business. Navalny is about the only standout person that exists to pull off the rehabilitation of Russia, but he would be fighting 1100 years of indifference. The asset theft that occurred in the early 90s that has effectively led to the current Putin situation needs to be reversed, and the asset values applied to the population, with some measure of governance. Privatisation wasn't inherently the problem, but theft to the 200 plus intel officers who then became oligarchs was, and that was in part the wests disinterest in the restructuring that resulted in that occurrence.

Hoping for white flags to start being flown

Putin's Key Man in the Artic Found Dead After Falling Overboard
 

Putin's Key Man in the Artic Found Dead After Falling Overboard (msn.com)

The death of a Russian energy executive over the weekend adds to a list of mysterious deaths of high-powered national businessmen since prior to the February 24 invasion of Ukraine.

Ivan Pechorin, 39, managing director of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, reportedly fell off a boat at full speed and died Saturday near Russky Island in the Sea of Japan in Primorsky Krai, Russia, near Vladivostock, about 5,800 miles east of Moscow.Pechorin worked under Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the Russian publication Komsomolskaya Pravda, modernizing aviation in eastern Russia while developing resources in the Arctic in light of heavy sanctions.

Pechorin's last public appearance reportedly occurred at the Eastern Economic Forum, held from September 5 to 8 in Vladivostok. The Daily Mail reported that Pechorin spoke during a session called, "Everyone has their Own Route: The Logistics of a Changed World."

His death follows that of the corporation's former CEO, Igor Nosov, 43, who reportedly died suddenly from a stroke in February.

On September 1, Ravil Maganov, 67, an oil tycoon and former head of Russia's second-largest oil company, Lukoil, reportedly fell to his death from a sixth-floor window of a Moscow hospital. Unconfirmed reports allege that Maganov was "beaten" and "thrown out of a window."

The oil tycoon had previously expressed his opposition to the invasion of Ukraine. Lukoil, meanwhile, said his death came "after a serious illness."

Other similar deaths have occurred over the years.

In December of 2021, Yegor Prosvirnin—founder of nationalist website Sputnik and Pogrom—fell out of a residential building in Moscow and died.

A similar incident occurred in October that year, when a Russian diplomat was found dead after a fall from a window at the Russian Embassy in Berlin.

Russia Posts English reported that Pechorin's aviation prowess included the support of passenger air transportation, the modernization of airport infrastructure, and the construction of new runways. He also was part of the development of the United Far Eastern Airlines that was created in 2021.

"Ivan's death is an irreparable loss for friends and colleagues, a great loss for the corporation," read a statement from the corporation. "We offer our sincere condolences to the family and friends."

Oil and gas have remained Russia's hot commodities, especially as G7 nations (United States, United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Canada and Japan) this summer announced the establishment of a cap on how much importers would pay for Russian crude.

Reuters reported that the measure will commence on December 5, decreasing Russian money made off oil experts while not reducing petroleum supplies to consumers worldwide. Countries like China and India have helped Russia's cause by remaining as energy customers since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Newsweek reached out to the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic for comment.
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Wake or mission creep?

The dissonance is still astounding, even in the face of rational arguments. Golly.

The term "NAZI" still gets lots of airtime, seems the education within Russia needs to be ramped up to include some history that doesn't come from bumper stickers.

That the current events flow from Russia's actions, from one single person's criminal intent gets missed in all of the jingoism and support of the criminal regime. More disincentivising needed yet,

not turning up yet on the market...


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a29c0fbe1a.png

Perhaps Putin should withdraw his troops to Sochi. There is a large private holding there owned by Putin, would solve 2 problems at once. Putin may need that level of protection once the public of Russia become aware of exactly where their wealth went under his management.

Chat is he ordered his oligarch to create their own mercs like wagner for what use we dunno. But maybe russia will start to breakdown and be warlord on warlord action

So the RF is beyond palliative care and into last rites. Still a dangerous time, Putin has shown an ability to be pretty darn petulant, and he has only his own military between his hissy fit and big red buttons. As that would be catastrophic for Russia irrespective of other responses from the world it might not be a high risk, but it is still one of the exit doors. The betrayal of the conscripts and all who drank the Kool-aid included those that need to be the guardians of sanity right now, so it's still popcorn worthy for the next few days.

Putin going to Sochi, which has lots of 6th story windows is a good thing, he needs a rest, a looooooong rest. :}

Evgeny Chichvarkin's comments are pretty blunt. He is the CEO of EUROSET, a fair sized telecom company in Russia, a billionaire through his own efforts.... Not an obsequious oligarch Putin acolyte.

His oligarchs will need their own window repairmen, could be something in that, growth industry in Russia. Wagner-R-US, window repairs to the rich n' famous.

Strange old world, ambitions from Russia to Ukraine to Poland, Germany, Belarus, Moldova etc, down to Ukraine, Donetsk, Russia and now several acres of Sochi all in 8 months, next goal in downsizing will be a 6 by 3 by 6 foot plot.

See, that pisses me off. Why do they do this!? I follow his telegram channel, Newsweek got nearly everything right except for one small detail; the part where they make it out to be him saying he can’t find the enemy. He never said that. If you go check the original out, he’s quoting another commander.

I actually posted his entire post yesterday commenting that in it that it was the first time that I’d seen made mention of Electronic warfare.

MSM has a bad enough reputation for getting things wrong. Why would they do this? Materially it’s makes hardly any difference, but be accurate ffs!

I am rather confident that its a Lada Niva, the 4x4 Lada.

They were a pretty decent little FWD, know a lot of farmers who bought them as farm vehicles, them and the subaru brumbies were very popular farm vehicles here in aus

This conflict is deemed to be a "special military operation" by Russia, not a war.

Generally there is no agreed legal definition of what constitutes terrorism, but loosely I would say "a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims" is quite apt in this current conflict. So terrorists they are IMHO, given massacres of civilians and destruction directed specifically of civil institutions. Much mention of "war crimes" being made, so the rules of conflict are not being abided by, the actions of a terrorist.

It actually is one of the Soviet export successes that is not a military vehicle, I believe they exported more than 500000 of those. Easy to repair with just basic tools, very capable off-road and cheap, in the 80's it cost only half of what a Land Cruiser did, about the same as a half smaller Suzuki SJ.

Maybe Iron Curtains will do the trick.

A large part of Russian society is totally behind the government's plans for world domination. Putin is the leader but he is not an individual making decisions against the will of his people.

Russians don't view their leaders as stealing from the people, instead it's viewed as taking a cut fron the deal. The size of the cut depends on where you are in the hierarchy.

The Armenian Government is Claiming that Azerbaijan Forces in addition to Military Infrastructure are now beginning to target Civilian Infrastructure, like Power Plants in the Border Regions, possibly in an attempt to weaken Armenian Control in preparation for a Ground Operation.

Heavy Shelling and Air Strikes are continuing to take place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani Border as the reported ceasefire appears to have collapsed multiple Military Bases in the Region are said to have taken Severe Damage/Casualties though so far Ground Forces have not been used.

Armenia has decided to officially appeal to Russia, the CSTO and the UN Security Council against Azerbaijan due to its attacks to the sovereign territory of Armenia.

-Armenian Security Council

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...peals-for-calm

Armenia Accuses Azerbaijan of Attack as US Appeals for Calm