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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 00:12


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11281028)
Meanwhile, is the Kerch bridge down? There was a highway advertising sign put up back in the day when Boeing (sorry about the aviation content) was suffering hard times and laying everyone (well, almost) off. Maybe a similar one is needed there....

Russia turned off all the live webcams covering the bridge several days ago.

https://www.geocam.ru/en/in/kerch/traffic/2/

Ukraine has now got their own crowdfunded satellite lol, so hopefully we might get to see it soon… or not ;)


Lonewolf_50 19th Aug 2022 00:34


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11281027)
All of the countries that China has been threatening in the SCS in recent times would be asked to give food to China? That should be interesting.

That gem of a thought belongs in Uncle Fred's unpleasantness thread on JB. :ok:

As to the reports of what went on today, my observation is: shaping the battlefield.

fdr 19th Aug 2022 00:37


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11281034)
Ukraine has now got their own crowdfunded satellite lol, so hopefully we might get to see it soon… or not ;)
https://twitter.com/BLSchmitt/status...15467432468480

Now, that would be a worthwhile past time for those wanting to assist Ukraine, to distributively analyse the images for targets of interest. Probably wouldn't suit all on this forum, there are Red team players on the thread. Distributed, real time SAR based targets of opportunity. Would want the 15x15k around some of the close in airports that Russia has used for their attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine. And my favourite, the Kerch bridge would be worthy of some watching. :}


NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 00:45

More on what they got.

https://prytulafoundation.notion.sit...03c52831ad161b

ORAC 19th Aug 2022 08:23

Excellent thread.

”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787202049.html

Tartiflette Fan 19th Aug 2022 09:16


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11281182)
”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."

Well that's one element that never entered my head when I posted querying the worth of the planned Russian referenda. It seems a risky manoeuvre though. If this were done in fully Ukrainian areas the Russkies are risking their conscripts turning their weapons on their Russian "compatriots" and hoofing it off to the Ukrainian side with whatever they can carry/drive.

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 09:29

A possibly spent air defence missille?


more images


DirtyProp 19th Aug 2022 09:34


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11280842)
Russia's top propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, twice honored by Putin for his "service to the Fatherland," threatens the US & Europe with nuclear war if they defend the Baltics from Russia.

Quite fittingly he calls the Baltic states as "nazi" because according to the Russian agit-prop, whoever does not accept to be invaded or assimilated by Russia is a nazi.

However this brings up an important point regarding limiting the access of Russian citizens to the EU. I agree with the fact that Russian tourists should be denied access because visiting the EU is a privilege and not a right. Moreover, if you support the Russian govmt one way or the other, you should face the consequences.
But there needs to be also an open corridor for all those Russians that want nothing to do with the Kremlin mafia and they want to build their lives honestly somewhere else.

beardy 19th Aug 2022 09:38


visiting the EU is a privilege and not a right
That's interesting, is it an opinion or what is your source?

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 09:40

One of our Husky's that never made it.


DirtyProp 19th Aug 2022 10:10


Originally Posted by beardy (Post 11281216)
That's interesting, is it an opinion or what is your source?

The fact that people outside of Schengen area need a visa maybe?

There's also the Prime Minister of Estonia:


Stop issuing tourist visas to Russians. Visiting #Europe is a privilege, not a human right. Air travel from RU is shut down. It means while Schengen countries issue visas, neighbours to Russia carry the burden (FI, EE, LV – sole access points). Time to end tourism from Russia now

fdr 19th Aug 2022 10:12


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11281182)
Excellent thread.

”Russian military bloggers themselves refer to forced mobilization on the occupied territories as "mogilizatsiia," могилизация, a play on words meaning "forced mobilization to the grave."

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...787202049.html

Tim Snyder's logic is sound, even if a bit surprising. A referendum that admits the area that Russia has been forcing conscription from would make those people essentially Russian citizens, even without the aid of a lobotomy, and then Putin has a choice to not conscript Russians, the new and rather depleted group of military service capable wundermenschen, or to admit that there was a whoops in the planning of manpower. Either way, he looks like Humpty Dumpty.

In the background, his ammunition is providing spectacular displays on his own horizon, and the body bag manufacturers seem to be a growth industry for Russia, making up for their Patriotic Tractor Factory product of ronson tanks.

All pales into relative trivia in comparison to smoking half of Russia by some 18 year old drinking too much Vodka inside ZNPP where the clever plan of self destruct is set out, putting HE and incendiary devices inside the power house of the largest NPP in Europe places Russia well ahead of Al Qaeda in the terrorist group stakes. The solitary offsetting benefit is that Russia is downwind in most conditions.

If invasion of Ukraine 2.0 got Russia the greatest sanctions hit in history, what I wonder will setting half of Russia into a wasteland for the next 10,000 years through the deliberate destruction of the ZNPP as the ultimate act of terrorism. I doubt that there is a Nobel prize for peace in that direction Vlad... And that's still the good outcome, the bad outcome is that the Geiger counters start ticking in NATO countries, and then the argument of hands off will be past their use by date.

ORAC 19th Aug 2022 10:12

Earlier information about the invaders preparing provocations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (#ZNPP) on August 19 have got new confirmations

Specifically, licensed personnel (i.e. those who perform their duties under the licenses issued by the State Atomic Energy Inspection) have been ordered to stay at home. Only a limited number of line personnel will be allowed to the power plant.

Rosatom representatives were absent at the last #ZNPP management meeting in the evening of August 18. That said, Rosatom associates have been imperatively attending all prior meetings since the plant was seized by russian troops. As of now, they have left the #ZNPP area.

Considering the amount of weapons stored at the power plant at the moment as well as multiple provocative shellings in the past, the probability of a major act of terror at the nuclear facility is very high



Ohrly 19th Aug 2022 10:36


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11281212)

Certainly looks nothing like the ATACMS image above.

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 11:16


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11281239)
Earlier information about the invaders preparing provocations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (#ZNPP) on August 19 have got new confirmations

Specifically, licensed personnel (i.e. those who perform their duties under the licenses issued by the State Atomic Energy Inspection) have been ordered to stay at home. Only a limited number of line personnel will be allowed to the power plant.

Rosatom representatives were absent at the last #ZNPP management meeting in the evening of August 18. That said, Rosatom associates have been imperatively attending all prior meetings since the plant was seized by russian troops. As of now, they have left the #ZNPP area.

Considering the amount of weapons stored at the power plant at the moment as well as multiple provocative shellings in the past, the probability of a major act of terror at the nuclear facility is very high

Which is what I had mentioned earlier, it also makes you wonder if he wants fallout over Russia so he can then call for mobilisation, though chances are if he does attack the plant, there may well be nothing left to mobilise as we would then be in a nuclear war scenario.. The other thing is, do you think it is so they can rig it without prying eyes?

fdr 19th Aug 2022 11:22


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11281280)
Which is what I had mentioned earlier, it also makes you wonder if he wants fallout over Russia so he can then call for mobilisation, though chances are if he does attack the plant, there may well be nothing left to mobilise as we would then be in a nuclear war scenario..

poisoning the Russian grain basket for the next 10,000 years just doesn't make for a good look. Vlad would be lucky to get voted in for St Petersburg dog catcher after that bit of clever Z style planning.

NutLoose 19th Aug 2022 11:38

NOT looking good..



FUMR 19th Aug 2022 14:44

Not looking good at all. Putin is manipulating an excuse to opt for a nuclear war. He knows he's lost and is planning for his suicide taking a good chunk of the world with him!

safetypee 19th Aug 2022 15:05

If power station is attacked then;

Remove the restriction on NATO (US) supplied long range weapons for use only within Ukraine

BlankBox 19th Aug 2022 15:31

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...fireball_near/

DAMN!! ...what was that boy carrying?


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