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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

fdr 28th Jun 2022 02:42

Emel makes a valid point on propaganda, the west, after all, had Murdoch's propaganda, Russia has... Russia, less 200 odd journalists and thousands of protesters.

Ukraine also has it's spin on stuff, and that is in self-defense. That Ukraine is acting in self-defense is incontestable. Remove the aggressor, and the war doesn't happen. This war is not about port access for the Black sea fleet, it is certainly not about care for Russian-speaking Ukrainians.... they are the ones that have been press-ganged into service as cannon fodder for the Russian forces. The Russian speakers have been shelled, bombed, murdered, and raped in various combinations of that series by the Russian forces, so there is no truth to the purported reason to have one Russian boot in Ukraine. Russia under a former mid-level and middling competence intelligence apparatchik, elevated beyond his competency by Yeltsin and then conniving to concentrate all real power in his own pocket along with billions in sovereign wealth... takes an "easy" option to rerun the walkover of Crimea. This war is owned 100% by Putin, and those that have facilitated his concentration of power in his hands.

This days indiscriminate rocket attack against an urban shopping center by Russia speaks volumes as to the brutality of the Russian regime. There is no justifiable military value in that attack, it is purely brutal, and indeed the term evil seems to fit quite appropriately. Ukraine has been extraordinarily restrained in their response, and that is understandable given the caveats that will exist with the support that has been provided them. It is telling that the fire safety of Russia, and the rail safety of Belarus seem to have declined somewhat, which speaks to the fact that indeed, some Russians and Belarusian citizens do not take the actions of Putin to be in their name.

“When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.” Edmund Burke, “Thoughts on the Cause of the Present Discontents” (1770)

That gets rephrased as "for evil to triumph.... etc..." you get the point though.

The Russian dissidents are in a tough position, but it is your country, it is your leader that conducted aggressive war, it is Putin that ascribes the nazi term to his victim, while indeed reverting to tactics of mass executions, devastation of nonmilitary civilian infrastructure and urinates on the Geneva Convention. Refer to E. Burke, (or E. Blackadder) for the inevitable opinion of much of the world to the actions of the great mass of Russian citizenry.



Beamr 28th Jun 2022 03:05

One closes eyes for a few hours and the entire Ukraine war mil thread turns into jet blast due to one muscovite troll. How long did I sleep?




Big Pistons Forever 28th Jun 2022 03:26


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11252403)
his uniform can be re-purposed, so may last longer and give more comfort to the troops than General Creosote himself.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....020273c43.jpeg



When they said Huffin 'n Puffin was scraping the barrel, they didn't mention that the barrel was dressed in camouflage

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....22b5a1779a.png


Not a good look for the Russian Army or for Putin….

Big Pistons Forever 28th Jun 2022 03:30


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11252670)
One closes eyes for a few hours and the entire Ukraine war mil thread turns into jet blast due to one muscovite troll. How long did I sleep?


Western social media will allow and in many cases often encourage contrary points of view. Of course if you are Russian and want to dispute the official line the penalty is 15 years in jail. Funny how the Putin apologists don’t seem eager to talk about that……

Pali 28th Jun 2022 04:04


Originally Posted by Emel.OW (Post 11252536)
18-20 year old guys who’re dying there, just like ours, killing each other in the bloody civil war

I won't comment on other things but how on Earth did you came to conclusion it is a civil war?!? Do you really believe Ukraine is Russia which is just taking back "own" territory?

FlightDetent 28th Jun 2022 04:05

Back to the scheduled programming..., slightly

Aviation content - Baykar corporation (yet again) refuse to accept fund raised / crowd sourced payment for 3 drones and giftes them instead.

Condition being the cash pot is redirected to humanitarian aid for Ukrainian people.

T28B 28th Jun 2022 04:19


Originally Posted by Emel.OW (Post 11252536)
18-20 year old guys who’re dying there, just like ours, killing each other in the bloody civil war


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11252683)
I won't comment on other things but how on Earth did you came to conclusion it is a civil war?!?

NotAsAMod
If I may offer some insight: that point of view, which you question, may be informed by a perspective that the current war in Ukraine (initiated in February of this year) is related to, and indeed a continuation of, the internal conflict within Ukraine that has been ongoing since about 2014 - when Russia annexed Crimea - and during which a Malaysian airliner was shot down. (If you do even a cursory search, you will find threads on the R&N section of PPRuNe involving that tragic incident, and the subsequent Dutch investigation of that).
While I cannot read that poster's mind, a variety of informed observers of the current conflict see that relationship in one form or another.

melmothtw 28th Jun 2022 05:48


Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11252686)
NotAsAMod
If I may offer some insight: that point of view, which you question, may be informed by a perspective that the current war in Ukraine (initiated in February of this year) is related to, and indeed a continuation of, the internal conflict within Ukraine that has been ongoing since about 2014 - when Russia annexed Crimea - and during which a Malaysian airliner was shot down. (If you do even a cursory search, you will find threads on the R&N section of PPRuNe involving that tragic incident, and the subsequent Dutch investigation of that).
While I cannot read that poster's mind, a variety of informed observers of the current conflict see that relationship in one form or another.

Well, if the R&N section of PPRuNe says it's a civil war then that's good enough for me.

peter we 28th Jun 2022 06:02


Originally Posted by Emel.OW (Post 11252553)
Fair enough, I don’t really care if you believe me or not, that’s just my point of view. Nothing to do with the government, but couldn’t care less 😂 There’s still a big difference in my point of view between Georgia and Crimea, but that’s simply because one of my best friends is from the South Ossetia, the kind of Georgian breakaway region. And I do realize that sovereignty is a very complicated question, with some people trying to build their own state, and the others trying to keep them within their borders. There’s really no simple answer to that, try almost any country in the world.

You and your country's belief in its actions is why you have 44 countries committed to destroying your army in Ukraine and destroying your economic ability to commit aggression.

Removing your ability to commit genocide will negate the need to persuade you that it is wrong.

peter we 28th Jun 2022 06:26


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11252581)
As said above, the blurb on the Web gives its range about 8 Km, but then again you do not put out the true capability of your weapons, I did think though as it was approaching perhaps they should have waited a little longer, but they are the ones that know what they are doing :O

another comment from Twitter sugguested 6000m (average 200m/s) presumably from one of the explosions heard.​​Whatever, this is impressive for such a low cost missile (£48k build cost). LMM is looking impressive

rattman 28th Jun 2022 06:57


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11252711)
another comment from Twitter sugguested 6000m (average 200m/s) presumably from one of the explosions heard.​​Whatever, this is impressive for such a low cost missile (£48k build cost). LMM is looking impressive

if talking about the martlet vs helicopter. it was about 4km, watch for impact, count between that and sound. 12 second, speed of sound is approx 330ms. range approx 4000m.

the more accurate number 12.5 seconds * 343ms = 4,287.5m

skua 28th Jun 2022 07:41

If the UK is a true flag waver for the increase in NATO's RRF, I don't see how that would be compatible with the intended premature retirement of the C-130 fleet.

Pali 28th Jun 2022 08:15


Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11252686)
NotAsAMod
If I may offer some insight: that point of view, which you question, may be informed by a perspective that the current war in Ukraine (initiated in February of this year) is related to, and indeed a continuation of, the internal conflict within Ukraine that has been ongoing since about 2014 - when Russia annexed Crimea - and during which a Malaysian airliner was shot down. (If you do even a cursory search, you will find threads on the R&N section of PPRuNe involving that tragic incident, and the subsequent Dutch investigation of that).
While I cannot read that poster's mind, a variety of informed observers of the current conflict see that relationship in one form or another.

Now, wait a minute. Of course there are different perspectives but If you would look more deeply into the history of the insurrection you would find that it was orchestrated by Kremlin via operatives like Igor Strelkov Girkin or Pavel Gubarev etc. and you can hardly talk about genuine "people's" movement. Without direct Russian military involvement (as you remember correctly the MH17 was shot down by Russian Buk from Kursk brigade) this would be a no story quite long ago.
Putin started that initial conflict, kept it alive and invaded sovereign country which per his own words "doesn't exist", because as he sees it – it was, it is and will be Russia.

Herod 28th Jun 2022 08:38

Just a quick "thank you" to the moderators for keeping this thread going. It's strayed a long way from "military aviation" at times, but is one of the best sites for information as to what is really happening.

mmitch 28th Jun 2022 09:34

All through this 'Special military operation' I have seen on FR24, aircraft with Turkish registrations (both airline and 'private') flying from Moscow, and Sorche and heading out over 'NATO' airspace. I thought air traffic to/from Russia was banned? Even some of their diplomats had difficulty getting home. Yet this doesn't get mentioned in the press?
mmitch.

NutLoose 28th Jun 2022 10:06

Anyone else read into this as they are worried that it is going to happen? Why would you make such threats if you were sure the region was safe and that Ukraine wouldnt be able to make headway.


Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warns NATO countries that "any invasion of Crimea would be considered a declaration of war on Russia and could lead to a third world war."

Beamr 28th Jun 2022 10:10


Originally Posted by mmitch (Post 11252817)
All through this 'Special military operation' I have seen on FR24, aircraft with Turkish registrations (both airline and 'private') flying from Moscow, and Sorche and heading out over 'NATO' airspace. I thought air traffic to/from Russia was banned? Even some of their diplomats had difficulty getting home. Yet this doesn't get mentioned in the press?
mmitch.

It's the Russian operators that are banned from EU (and many others) airspace. It's not where the flight is originating/destining but who is operating the flight.

Tartiflette Fan 28th Jun 2022 10:19


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11252836)
Why would you make such threats

Speculation. Medvedev feels the need to get/keep his name in front of the Russian public ( for possible succession ? ) so he makes bellicose statements to appeal to all (especially the ranters in the Duma ). It's wise to choose an unlikely scenario, so that your words are not fired back at you in three months when that scenario comes to pass.

dead_pan 28th Jun 2022 10:25


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11252711)
another comment from Twitter sugguested 6000m (average 200m/s) presumably from one of the explosions heard.​​Whatever, this is impressive for such a low cost missile (£48k build cost). LMM is looking impressive

One does have to question the tactics and situational awareness of the helo's crew. I mean, stooging along at a couple of thousand feet apparently without a care in the world. That's just asking for a wake-up call.

dead_pan 28th Jun 2022 10:31


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11252836)
Anyone else read into this as they are worried that it is going to happen? Why would you make such threats if you were sure the region was safe and that Ukraine wouldnt be able to make headway.

It does look imminent any time soon but maybe he knows something we don't about the state of Russia's military? On a related note, I wonder how the peninsular's general population would react to an an attack on the Kerch bridge, something which is much more feasible/likely?


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