Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I see the Russians have already started to complain about the USAF UAVs in the Black Sea giving intel to the Ukrainians. Flightradar24 shows Forte 11 & 12 now (and over recent days) cruising around in locations that must irritate someone in the Kremlin...
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Just read that Putin called Kazakhstan, and asked them to send in troops to fight in Ukraine. They declined.
How desperate is Putin???
How desperate is Putin???
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The numbers are racking up, he is going to need to sell a lot of gas to replace this lot…. Ohh wait he may well struggle with that in the future.
Illia Ponomarenko
@IAPonomarenko
·
21m
Russian losses as of now, Ukrainian data: -
Over 540 IFVs -
16 airplanes -
18 helicopters -
102 tanks -
504 APCs -
1 Buk-1 system -
Over 20 armored cars -
Over 3,000 manpower KIA,
200 taken prisoner
@IAPonomarenko
·
21m
Russian losses as of now, Ukrainian data: -
Over 540 IFVs -
16 airplanes -
18 helicopters -
102 tanks -
504 APCs -
1 Buk-1 system -
Over 20 armored cars -
Over 3,000 manpower KIA,
200 taken prisoner
If, as suggested, the Russians are being thwarted, taking heavy losses and over extending their supply lines (or having them interdicted), this will be where the wounded Russian Bear will be at its most dangerous.
The prospect of something like gas, chemicals or even a Tac-Nuc weapon cannot be ruled out and certainly not from someone with Putin’s mind set.
What would the response be after the deployment of any of the possibilities above? I understand that Assad’s chemical weapons were supposedly ‘taken out’ by air attack but many remained because they had been deployed for use and hence not in any sort of depot. Such dispersal might well have already been made in the current situation.
Perhaps the targeted use of cruise missiles against identified Russian assets might be used but drones could possibly not be used in contested airspace.
I’m sure ppruners have more practical and realistic ideas than me – what are they?
Old Duffer
The prospect of something like gas, chemicals or even a Tac-Nuc weapon cannot be ruled out and certainly not from someone with Putin’s mind set.
What would the response be after the deployment of any of the possibilities above? I understand that Assad’s chemical weapons were supposedly ‘taken out’ by air attack but many remained because they had been deployed for use and hence not in any sort of depot. Such dispersal might well have already been made in the current situation.
Perhaps the targeted use of cruise missiles against identified Russian assets might be used but drones could possibly not be used in contested airspace.
I’m sure ppruners have more practical and realistic ideas than me – what are they?
Old Duffer
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The effects of shutting Russia out of SWIFT…
….The currency becomes worthless, with none of the normal automatic or policy stabilizers operating. The country is forced into autarky with no foreign trade or borrowing possible. You can still print rubles. But we know what that means. But we need more details to know the limits…..
A bank run. Hyperinflation. Production shut downs. Severe rationing. Widespread unemployment. Mass exodus. It will depend a lot on the value of their exports that they can maintain but even those might come under pressure. It’s hard to conceive of all the possible consequences.…
….The currency becomes worthless, with none of the normal automatic or policy stabilizers operating. The country is forced into autarky with no foreign trade or borrowing possible. You can still print rubles. But we know what that means. But we need more details to know the limits…..
A bank run. Hyperinflation. Production shut downs. Severe rationing. Widespread unemployment. Mass exodus. It will depend a lot on the value of their exports that they can maintain but even those might come under pressure. It’s hard to conceive of all the possible consequences.…
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Those russian troops in those videos seem more like scouts and/or spezsnatz groups than a massive land force penetration.
The problem being they seem lost and, in light armoured vehicles, are being separated and picked off. God help them when they run into anyone with a few NLAW…
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It looks like the village has turned out to stand in the road and block Russian tanks
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more abandoned vehicles in Kharkov, it appears they haven’t heard of runflats on armoured vehicles lol
Now that the russians are entering urban areas, those urban areas are becoming target rich environments for anyone with a NLAW. Hope those german stocks arrive soon.
Could well be wrong but don't think they can make runflats for vehicles weighing that much. Had "pseudo" runflats on my truck (4x4 Scania TGB-30) back during my service days but that more or less just amounted to the the rubber being bolted to the rim so it would stay on if the tyre went flat. Each tyre had 4 internal brackets that locked the bead to the rim.
Then again I ran a refuelling rig so a punctured tyre was the least of my problems, general joke was to bring plenty of hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a rolling bbq waiting to happen!
Then again I ran a refuelling rig so a punctured tyre was the least of my problems, general joke was to bring plenty of hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a rolling bbq waiting to happen!
The question that now raises its ugly head is what the hell the Russians do now. Install a puppet Govt? reabsorb the whole country???