Is Ukraine about to have a war?
BBC is reporting the possibility of a trilateral security agreement / alliance between UK, Poland and Ukraine is on the cards. Can only find it in ukrainian so you will have to translate it
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/featur...mpaign=KARANGA
https://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/featur...mpaign=KARANGA
One of the better Bojo decisions.
Less Hair, Is it? And if so, why?
To help smaller nations withstand violent threats by bigger ones. Ukraine has had parts separated already.
Less Hair,
I understand your motives - BUT - in 1914, Britain went to war to protect Belgian neutrality and to prevent the Franco/Belgian coastline from falling into German hands. I know it was a lot more complicated than that but bear with me. Equally, in 1939, Britain and France declared war on Germany because they had made a treaty with Poland to protect it in the event of German invasion.
My point is that, if we are to protect Ukraine, it would be far better to do so as part of NATO than on the basis of an agreement (treaty/alliance?) between only Britain, Poland and Ukraine. Might this not be a bit of Boris grandstanding rather than solidarity with our major allies?
I would hate to see Britain dragged into a conflict over an agreement with Ukraine and Poland and without the support of NATO.
I understand your motives - BUT - in 1914, Britain went to war to protect Belgian neutrality and to prevent the Franco/Belgian coastline from falling into German hands. I know it was a lot more complicated than that but bear with me. Equally, in 1939, Britain and France declared war on Germany because they had made a treaty with Poland to protect it in the event of German invasion.
My point is that, if we are to protect Ukraine, it would be far better to do so as part of NATO than on the basis of an agreement (treaty/alliance?) between only Britain, Poland and Ukraine. Might this not be a bit of Boris grandstanding rather than solidarity with our major allies?
I would hate to see Britain dragged into a conflict over an agreement with Ukraine and Poland and without the support of NATO.
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Well that’s worded interestingly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60188690
note it’s “very unlikely” NOT will not.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60188690
There is a "real threat" of Russia invading Ukraine, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has warned, but it is "very unlikely" British soldiers would be deployed to fight in any conflict
Putin will be very happy to hear that Liz Truss has confirmed what Ben Wallace suggested to the Spectator a few weeks back, ie that the UK would in all probability not fight. Whether the UK would or wouldn't, our latest expert in foreign policy has just informed the Russians that they can pretty much take the UK off the table as a factor in their 'Do we, or don't we?' decision. This is either a deliberate foreign policy move which seems to be at odds with all the other UK Govt rhetoric, or it's completely inept political signalling that risks adding to the prospects of a Russian invasion.
I wonder whether FCDO has had to re-establish the team it allegedly set up during the incumbency of a a certain scruffy blonde-haired chap - I'm told it's task was poop-scooping and clearing up other messes on the world stage after unwise, inappropriate or ignorant pronouncements.
I wonder whether FCDO has had to re-establish the team it allegedly set up during the incumbency of a a certain scruffy blonde-haired chap - I'm told it's task was poop-scooping and clearing up other messes on the world stage after unwise, inappropriate or ignorant pronouncements.
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The whole world has been left in no doubt that if Russia marches into Ukraine then it will only be the Ukrainians directly opposing them.
What happens thereafter - well sanctions and presumably increased military spending in the west.
Russia has benefitted from the reduced military spending post 1990. If it marches into Ukraine then it has to ask itself whether it feels that it really wants to deal with a reinvigorated NATO and greater EU militarisation.
I have really difficulties seeing a good outcome of this mess for Russia in the medium Term. Gambled to high?
More than that, it would be madness, totally unrealistic and very dangerous posturing. Dog Dilyn probably dreamed it in its basket.
A very wise British pre 1914 analysis was of the question: "what are the military for?" The answers [from memory] were a short list, and included [without naming names] fighting Germany.
A similar question today would not include a non- NATO military alliance with two obvious victims. The nation to worry is Germany. 20 years of infrastructure negligence, a token military [broomsticks, ADAC choppers and not allowed out at night] and the threadbare comfort blanket of having Ukraine and Poland between them and the Bear. Additionally, a recent history of hacking off USA, GB and France regarding Nordstream 2.
Last edited by langleybaston; 30th Jan 2022 at 19:37. Reason: speelin
The good news is ceasefire is holding , the bad news is you might soon be able to buy some of those weapons supplied to the Ukraine on the underground market from the same arms dealers that moved some of the weapons through Beirut and Pakistan that helped defeat NATOs attempts to help Afghanistan .
on the plus side we may once again start hearing the jet sound of freedom more often 
/endOf sarcasm
on a more serious note; Pravda claims that the US has provided Ukraine with chemical weapons but the use of those in Donbass to claim that the Russians did it went bad,
"According to some reports, botulinum toxin has already been used in the Balakleya region to poison the upper reaches of the Seversky Donets . The Seversky Donets supplies water to the DPR.
It turns out that some command was received, but then it caused horror among the performers, intermediate authorities, the army, since they decided to immediately neutralize it with formaldehyde. If formaldehyde is poured out in large volumes within an hour, the toxin will die. It is hardly possible to invent a video and the fact that containers with chemicals have arrived in the area of Avdiivka and Krasny Liman"
Читайте больше на https://www.pravda.ru/world/1672499-donbass/
link is in russian but one may use a translator.
/endOf sarcasm
on a more serious note; Pravda claims that the US has provided Ukraine with chemical weapons but the use of those in Donbass to claim that the Russians did it went bad,
"According to some reports, botulinum toxin has already been used in the Balakleya region to poison the upper reaches of the Seversky Donets . The Seversky Donets supplies water to the DPR.
It turns out that some command was received, but then it caused horror among the performers, intermediate authorities, the army, since they decided to immediately neutralize it with formaldehyde. If formaldehyde is poured out in large volumes within an hour, the toxin will die. It is hardly possible to invent a video and the fact that containers with chemicals have arrived in the area of Avdiivka and Krasny Liman"
Читайте больше на https://www.pravda.ru/world/1672499-donbass/
link is in russian but one may use a translator.
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Anything can be faked, Superman does not fly in reality you know, even the cheapest of films can dress folks up in Uniforms while pouring items into a river.
To counter that
https://spravdi.gov.ua/en/on-chemica...isinformation/
To counter that
https://spravdi.gov.ua/en/on-chemica...isinformation/
Russian disinformation channels instantly turned “tanks with unidentified chemical components” into “proven facts” of availability of chemical weapons and Ukraine’s alleged readiness to use them. Apparently, this was supposed to happen with the help of American mercenaries mentioned by Shoigu.
Each of these fakes — about shot refugees, the naval provocation, American mercenaries with chemical weapons — opens the gateway to hell for a moment. And then one person decides whether or not to let the demons of war through this gate.
Each of these fakes — about shot refugees, the naval provocation, American mercenaries with chemical weapons — opens the gateway to hell for a moment. And then one person decides whether or not to let the demons of war through this gate.
The Russian media is harnessed to deliver Kremlins message, they do not put out any information that is not approved by Kremlin/Putin.
1. France has been in NATO since it started.
2. There was a substantial period where France was "in but out" after DeGaulle withdrew France from the integrated military command structure, etc. (60's)
(IIRC that's when the HQ moved to Mons in Belgium)
3. When Sarkozy was in charge in France, France formally re-entered the integrated command structure.
That's over ten years ago. Newsflash for you, I guess.
4. NATO nations bicker and disagree over a multitude of things, and they also agree / cooperate on a multitude of things.
(That's as old as the 50's and bickering about monetary contributions/shares when Ike was the US president...)
Not sure how France can move "closer to NATO" given that they are a part of NATO ...
2. There was a substantial period where France was "in but out" after DeGaulle withdrew France from the integrated military command structure, etc. (60's)
(IIRC that's when the HQ moved to Mons in Belgium)
3. When Sarkozy was in charge in France, France formally re-entered the integrated command structure.
That's over ten years ago. Newsflash for you, I guess.
4. NATO nations bicker and disagree over a multitude of things, and they also agree / cooperate on a multitude of things.
(That's as old as the 50's and bickering about monetary contributions/shares when Ike was the US president...)
Not sure how France can move "closer to NATO" given that they are a part of NATO ...
If you had sat on the NATO committees that were the worst part of my job you would agree that France could move a lot closer to NATO. Or OTAN as they preferred it.
Here’s a decent write up on the French/Euro stance by a former NATO Supreme Commander of Europe. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...9NAs-Sc6jujH48
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German Eurofighters to Romania
https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/Germany_join_EAPR
https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/Germany_join_EAPR
RAMSTEIN, Germany – German Air Force Eurofighters will deploy to Romania under NATO's enhanced Air Policing to conduct an interoperability mission with the Italian Air Force under the existing 'Plug & Fight' series during February and March.
Within the concept of 'Plug & Fight' a small contingent of personnel and aircraft from one Ally conducts operations with another Ally by docking on existing structures, thereby further developing interoperability during a live deployment. A highly innovative concept, 'Plug & Fight' operations have been executed between the German and British Air Forces before in Romania as well as during Baltic Air Policing in Lithuania and Estonia.
The planned cooperation between the Italian and German Air Forces will enable Eurofighter aircrew and support staffs from the two nations to work closely together to launch enhanced Air Policing missions. This kind of event offers real benefit to all NATO personnel, as well as enhancing Allied interoperability, building trust and practising essential communication procedures. The Italian and German QRA fighters will maintain the same reaction times and ensure 24/7 readiness for NATO, but the additional aircraft and personnel will offer extra resilience to the Alliance.
Within the concept of 'Plug & Fight' a small contingent of personnel and aircraft from one Ally conducts operations with another Ally by docking on existing structures, thereby further developing interoperability during a live deployment. A highly innovative concept, 'Plug & Fight' operations have been executed between the German and British Air Forces before in Romania as well as during Baltic Air Policing in Lithuania and Estonia.
The planned cooperation between the Italian and German Air Forces will enable Eurofighter aircrew and support staffs from the two nations to work closely together to launch enhanced Air Policing missions. This kind of event offers real benefit to all NATO personnel, as well as enhancing Allied interoperability, building trust and practising essential communication procedures. The Italian and German QRA fighters will maintain the same reaction times and ensure 24/7 readiness for NATO, but the additional aircraft and personnel will offer extra resilience to the Alliance.
I'm rather surprised that NATO hasn't suggested that Transdinistria and Kalingrad might be re-united with the neighbouring countries.......................