Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Given the public mood- both outside and inside Russia - that would be stepping up hostilities several levels and would seem a very unwise thing to do.
Has already happened - it was reported on BBC Newsnight that the Ukrainians had targeted a Russian airfield be used for air ops.
Zelensky has just tweeted that Erdogan has agreed to close the Bosphorous to Russian naval vessels. Not sure if this means everything, or those outwith vessels covered by the Montreux Convention. Either way a strong message.
DP: thank you. I had not realised this.
Well, the Ukranians already claim to have attacked a Russian airbase, so I don't think theuy are being held back by any "legal" constraints, but it is puzzling that they haven't used any of their own missiles to attack either more bases or fuel-dumps, logistics centres. The supply of western weapons has centred on Stingers/manpad anti-tank, nothing mentioned about larger missiles although that cannot be counted out.
Stick to convention and maintain support.
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Some interesting posts.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
What they should have is special forces in Russia hitting the railway lines bringing logistic supplies up to the railheads for the invasion force.
I must admit that I have been astonished at how well the Ukrainian military have performed, particularly by the fact that their airforce still appears to be operational and effective. I wonder if our expectations of this war have been shaped too much by what we have seen from US/ NATO operations and the overwhelming use of airpower in the initial stage. I fear that the weight of forces opposing them may yet prove too much (at least for the regular phase of the war), but they certainly seem to be surpassing the most optimistic pre-war assessment.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ukrainian MOD reports that the Ukrainian Air Force performed 34 combat sorties over the last 24 hours
- Hit targets at the Horodnya railway station
- Destroyed a bridge in Kherson
- TB2 strikes near Gostomel
- Hit targets at the Horodnya railway station
- Destroyed a bridge in Kherson
- TB2 strikes near Gostomel
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BBC: "Russian military spokesperson Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday that Moscow had suffered no casualties during the invasion."
Comical Ali re-born!
Comical Ali re-born!
Understanding the Cause (?)
I stumbled across the following lecture from 2015
John Mearsheimer on Why Ukraine is the West’s Fault
For me it is a really good analysis and a spookily accurate forecast.
Once again we have forgotten that not all countries see the world through a ‘liberal hegemony’ lens.
The inaction and turning a blind eye to the actions of the Kiev government in the aftermath of the 2014 coup was a strategic blunder. First action in Parliament to outlaw use of Russian language and then cut all state support when protests started in Donetz was crass to say the least.
Russian was the first language in East Ukraine and it provided a perfect opportunity to destabilize the country by supporting the two separatist regions.
Putin’s language ref genocide and denazification seems ludicrous to us, but less so for a home audience. There was a nasty far-right element to the post-coup regime. Some of the units sent to quell the protests in Donbass were volunteer brigades drawn from neo-facist ideology around Lviv.
It may seem far-fetched to us, but a mere sniff of a swastika triggers a response from a nation for whom 1945 is a mere heartbeat away in the national consciousness.
Not enforcing the subsequent Minsk agreements offered Putin his trigger.
John Mearsheimer on Why Ukraine is the West’s Fault
For me it is a really good analysis and a spookily accurate forecast.
Once again we have forgotten that not all countries see the world through a ‘liberal hegemony’ lens.
The inaction and turning a blind eye to the actions of the Kiev government in the aftermath of the 2014 coup was a strategic blunder. First action in Parliament to outlaw use of Russian language and then cut all state support when protests started in Donetz was crass to say the least.
Russian was the first language in East Ukraine and it provided a perfect opportunity to destabilize the country by supporting the two separatist regions.
Putin’s language ref genocide and denazification seems ludicrous to us, but less so for a home audience. There was a nasty far-right element to the post-coup regime. Some of the units sent to quell the protests in Donbass were volunteer brigades drawn from neo-facist ideology around Lviv.
It may seem far-fetched to us, but a mere sniff of a swastika triggers a response from a nation for whom 1945 is a mere heartbeat away in the national consciousness.
Not enforcing the subsequent Minsk agreements offered Putin his trigger.
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No confirmation yet however...
Russian President Vladimir Putin removed Valery Gerasimov from the post of Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation. This was reported on Twitter by MP Sofia Fedina.
"We have information that Putin dismissed the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," she wrote.
"We have information that Putin dismissed the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," she wrote.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Reference the apologia for Russia above.
Firstly it should be noted that Russian has never been banned in Ukraine and is fact protected as a minority language.
Regardless, the hypocrisy of Russia is breathtaking.
For the last twenty plus years the policy of Russia, and China, has been that the internal affairs of a national are a domestic matter in which other nations have no say. A position they used both to berate the neoliberal policy of exporting democracy and t9 justify their own actions such in Tibet and, in Russia’s case, the wholesale genocide and destruction in Chechnya.
Based on their stated policy the internal affairs of Ukraine are none of their business.
In claiming that the ethnic background of those in the Donbass entitled them to provide passports and claim its denizens as citizens and to seize the territory they are following in the steps of Germany in the late 1930s….
Firstly it should be noted that Russian has never been banned in Ukraine and is fact protected as a minority language.
Regardless, the hypocrisy of Russia is breathtaking.
For the last twenty plus years the policy of Russia, and China, has been that the internal affairs of a national are a domestic matter in which other nations have no say. A position they used both to berate the neoliberal policy of exporting democracy and t9 justify their own actions such in Tibet and, in Russia’s case, the wholesale genocide and destruction in Chechnya.
Based on their stated policy the internal affairs of Ukraine are none of their business.
In claiming that the ethnic background of those in the Donbass entitled them to provide passports and claim its denizens as citizens and to seize the territory they are following in the steps of Germany in the late 1930s….