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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 26th Feb 2022, 12:52
  #1641 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
The correspondent referred to what happened in Grozny and Syria. Give civilians an ultimatum to leave, anyone left being fair game.
Given the public mood- both outside and inside Russia - that would be stepping up hostilities several levels and would seem a very unwise thing to do.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 12:54
  #1642 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Right20deg
At what point in this conflict is the defender permitted to counter attack the aggressor by deploying missiles supplied by the west to target the Russians on their own soil ?
Has already happened - it was reported on BBC Newsnight that the Ukrainians had targeted a Russian airfield be used for air ops.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 12:57
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Zelensky has just tweeted that Erdogan has agreed to close the Bosphorous to Russian naval vessels. Not sure if this means everything, or those outwith vessels covered by the Montreux Convention. Either way a strong message.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 13:05
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DP: thank you. I had not realised this.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 13:09
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Originally Posted by Right20deg
At what point in this conflict is the defender permitted to counter attack the aggressor by deploying missiles supplied by the west to target the Russians on their own soil ?
Well, the Ukranians already claim to have attacked a Russian airbase, so I don't think theuy are being held back by any "legal" constraints, but it is puzzling that they haven't used any of their own missiles to attack either more bases or fuel-dumps, logistics centres. The supply of western weapons has centred on Stingers/manpad anti-tank, nothing mentioned about larger missiles although that cannot be counted out.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 13:12
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Hardly tankers country ?

Every other dent in the ground is a post-glacial lake and the rest is peat-bog or densely forested.

Surely aircraft with cluster bombs is a more appropriate weapon/munition.
cluster bombs are, as far as i know, a banned weapon.
Stick to convention and maintain support.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 13:13
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Some interesting posts.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 13:18
  #1648 (permalink)  
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What they should have is special forces in Russia hitting the railway lines bringing logistic supplies up to the railheads for the invasion force.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 13:49
  #1649 (permalink)  
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It does seem to be a growing trend. But at some stage the Russians are going to be told to stop playing at rescuers and start shooting…

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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:08
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Originally Posted by ORAC
What they should have is special forces in Russia hitting the railway lines bringing logistic supplies up to the railheads for the invasion force.
Do you think that would be the best use of personnel and equipment? They would potentially be operating in a very hostile environment. From what I have seen so far (admittedly very little) the Russian forces have not been doing a great deal to protect their supply lines within Ukraine and (particularly in the south) Ukrainian forces have been allowing the heavy armour to pass through and then devastating the supply convoys. This sort of tactic is surely much easier on home territory and seems to be inflicting a very high cost on the Russians. I think that Ukraine may also judge that one of the most likely routes to a successful end to the war is a change of government in Moscow. Attacks on Russian soil would probably make that outcome less likely.

I must admit that I have been astonished at how well the Ukrainian military have performed, particularly by the fact that their airforce still appears to be operational and effective. I wonder if our expectations of this war have been shaped too much by what we have seen from US/ NATO operations and the overwhelming use of airpower in the initial stage. I fear that the weight of forces opposing them may yet prove too much (at least for the regular phase of the war), but they certainly seem to be surpassing the most optimistic pre-war assessment.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:15
  #1651 (permalink)  
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Ukrainian MOD reports that the Ukrainian Air Force performed 34 combat sorties over the last 24 hours

- Hit targets at the Horodnya railway station
- Destroyed a bridge in Kherson
- TB2 strikes near Gostomel
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:20
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Thumbs up

BBC: "Russian military spokesperson Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday that Moscow had suffered no casualties during the invasion."

Comical Ali re-born!

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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:27
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Originally Posted by MPN11
BBC: "Russian military spokesperson Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday that Moscow had suffered no casualties during the invasion."

Comical Ali re-born!
On the other hand, the Ukranians are claiming over 3 000 Russian dead for 118 Ukranians, which also seems worthy of raised eyebrows.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:35
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Understanding the Cause (?)

I stumbled across the following lecture from 2015


John Mearsheimer on Why Ukraine is the West’s Fault

For me it is a really good analysis and a spookily accurate forecast.

Once again we have forgotten that not all countries see the world through a ‘liberal hegemony’ lens.

The inaction and turning a blind eye to the actions of the Kiev government in the aftermath of the 2014 coup was a strategic blunder. First action in Parliament to outlaw use of Russian language and then cut all state support when protests started in Donetz was crass to say the least.

Russian was the first language in East Ukraine and it provided a perfect opportunity to destabilize the country by supporting the two separatist regions.

Putin’s language ref genocide and denazification seems ludicrous to us, but less so for a home audience. There was a nasty far-right element to the post-coup regime. Some of the units sent to quell the protests in Donbass were volunteer brigades drawn from neo-facist ideology around Lviv.

It may seem far-fetched to us, but a mere sniff of a swastika triggers a response from a nation for whom 1945 is a mere heartbeat away in the national consciousness.

Not enforcing the subsequent Minsk agreements offered Putin his trigger.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:50
  #1655 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
cluster bombs are, as far as i know, a banned weapon.
Stick to convention and maintain support.
We certainly gave up our cluster and long delay weapons, not sure if the US did, and the Russians certainly didn’t!
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 14:51
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
On the other hand, the Ukranians are claiming over 3 000 Russian dead for 118 Ukranians, which also seems worthy of raised eyebrows.
If correct
100 plus tank kills 4 per tank?
500 plus vehicles 2 per truck?
kill rate could soon mount up assuming none got out.
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 15:00
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Turkish A400M popping into EPRZ, Poland..

Change of allegiance here then..

IG
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Old 26th Feb 2022, 15:16
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No confirmation yet however...

Russian President Vladimir Putin removed Valery Gerasimov from the post of Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation. This was reported on Twitter by MP Sofia Fedina.

"We have information that Putin dismissed the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," she wrote.

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Old 26th Feb 2022, 15:17
  #1659 (permalink)  
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Now, about Russian troop morale…

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Old 26th Feb 2022, 15:33
  #1660 (permalink)  
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Reference the apologia for Russia above.

Firstly it should be noted that Russian has never been banned in Ukraine and is fact protected as a minority language.

Regardless, the hypocrisy of Russia is breathtaking.

For the last twenty plus years the policy of Russia, and China, has been that the internal affairs of a national are a domestic matter in which other nations have no say. A position they used both to berate the neoliberal policy of exporting democracy and t9 justify their own actions such in Tibet and, in Russia’s case, the wholesale genocide and destruction in Chechnya.

Based on their stated policy the internal affairs of Ukraine are none of their business.

In claiming that the ethnic background of those in the Donbass entitled them to provide passports and claim its denizens as citizens and to seize the territory they are following in the steps of Germany in the late 1930s….
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