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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 19th Feb 2023, 08:24
  #14721 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrai...different-wars

Kyiv and Moscow Are Fighting Two Different Wars

What the War in Ukraine Has Revealed About Contemporary Conflict

By Lawrence Freedman
I hoped for better. It did not really add anything that has not been said before.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 10:36
  #14722 (permalink)  
 
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Your daily humour dose presented by the Belarusian army.

I wonder if the message is "Be scared. Be very scared. We might hit ourselves in the head with a brick and shoot randomly in the air."


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Old 19th Feb 2023, 10:53
  #14723 (permalink)  
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Russian "Veteran's Notes" channel talks about the critical situation with funding in the Russian army. Neither mobilised nor volunteers get paid properly, some going 6+ months without a single payment. They say, this is happening in every unit and will lead to a social explosion.…

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Old 19th Feb 2023, 12:26
  #14724 (permalink)  
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1/ The Russian government has created a new unified database listing all of those eligible for military service, to make it easier to mobilise people, better able to screen out those with exemptions and catch 'evaders' at border checkpoints and via facial recognition cameras…..

5/ According to the journalists, the new database contains "comprehensive data on those liable for military service. Where they live, what phone numbers and email they have, what property they own, what state of health they are in."….

16/. In addition, it's intended to help track down so-called 'evaders' – those who are trying to avoid military service. The database includes mobile phone numbers and photographs.

17/ This will enable 'evaders' to be tracked down by geolocating their mobile phone signals, as well as enabling the authorities to use CCTV cameras with facial recognition systems to track down those trying to evade mobilisation.

18/ The system is also intended to be used to block people fleeing the country, following the departure of an estimated 500,000 to 1 million people last year. Many of those who fled were able to take advantage of bureaucratic inefficiencies, as the journalists report….

22/ The system is now being adjusted and, if necessary, all information will be available immediately to border guards, says a source at the security service of a Moscow airport."…

23/ While all of this doesn't necessarily mean that another wave of mobilisation is imminent, it's likely to significantly improve the Russian government's ability to do it more quickly and efficiently, with less evasion and less controversy from the wrong people being mobilised.

https://t.co/ecUvqi0R76



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Old 19th Feb 2023, 12:42
  #14725 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russian "Veteran's Notes" channel talks about the critical situation with funding in the Russian army. Neither mobilised nor volunteers get paid properly, some going 6+ months without a single payment. They say, this is happening in every unit and will lead to a social explosion.…
social explosion Mutiny.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 12:52
  #14726 (permalink)  
 
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The Russians clearly have much to learn about the need for infantry support when using armour.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:10
  #14727 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
1/ The Russian government has created a new unified database...
Haha, that's going to work really well.

​​​​​​​We poured millions (billions?) of real currency into a unified NHS database and they still ask me to fill out a form detailing my medical history when I go to see my local GP.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:13
  #14728 (permalink)  
 
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Alternative Opinion

Last Night on UK TV GB news program Neil Oliver at at approx. +26 minutes introduced Retired Col Douglas Macgregor
see

for background see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor

You can draw your own conclusions of the Man however he puts forward a completely different view of currents events in the Ukraine, which to be honest have alarmed me no end . Now before you totally dismiss his views and opinions, just look at his Army Career and experience.
I wonder what your thoughts are? May be Gumms and BEags and Sasless and others who are well experienced military people have a view.
thanks ***

Just to be clear I do not support Macgregor's views in any way.

Last edited by orionsbelt; 19th Feb 2023 at 13:39. Reason: Input my opinion view
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:25
  #14729 (permalink)  
 
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Not wheeling out and giving air to this Fox News MacGregor guy with his Putin line once again!
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:25
  #14730 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
1/ The Russian government has created a new unified database listing all of those eligible for military service, to make it easier to mobilise people, better able to screen out those with exemptions and catch 'evaders' at border checkpoints and via facial recognition cameras…..

5/ According to the journalists, the new database contains "comprehensive data on those liable for military service. Where they live, what phone numbers and email they have, what property they own, what state of health they are in."….

16/. In addition, it's intended to help track down so-called 'evaders' – those who are trying to avoid military service. The database includes mobile phone numbers and photographs.

17/ This will enable 'evaders' to be tracked down by geolocating their mobile phone signals, as well as enabling the authorities to use CCTV cameras with facial recognition systems to track down those trying to evade mobilisation.

18/ The system is also intended to be used to block people fleeing the country, following the departure of an estimated 500,000 to 1 million people last year. Many of those who fled were able to take advantage of bureaucratic inefficiencies, as the journalists report….

22/ The system is now being adjusted and, if necessary, all information will be available immediately to border guards, says a source at the security service of a Moscow airport."…

23/ While all of this doesn't necessarily mean that another wave of mobilisation is imminent, it's likely to significantly improve the Russian government's ability to do it more quickly and efficiently, with less evasion and less controversy from the wrong people being mobilised.

https://t.co/ecUvqi0R76


That all looks very impressive, but where are the skilled staff?

Ahhh well, remember the first adhoc mobilisation we ran, well the all went in that and none have returned.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:27
  #14731 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by orionsbelt
Last Night on UK TV GB news program Neil Oliver at at approx. +26 minutes introduced Retired Col Douglas Macgregor
see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6I3wa3uOyI

for background see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor

You can draw your own conclusions of the Man however he puts forward a completely different view of currents events in the Ukraine, which to be honest have alarmed me no end . Now before you totally dismiss his views and opinions, just look at his Army Career and experience.
I wonder what your thoughts are? May be Gumms and BEags and Sasless and others who are well experienced military people have a view.
thanks ***
There is no link
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:35
  #14732 (permalink)  
 
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SOPS, it's probably your browser.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 13:37
  #14733 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by orionsbelt
Last Night on UK TV GB news program Neil Oliver at at approx. +26 minutes introduced Retired Col Douglas Macgregor
see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6I3wa3uOyI

for background see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor

You can draw your own conclusions of the Man however he puts forward a completely different view of currents events in the Ukraine, which to be honest have alarmed me no end . Now before you totally dismiss his views and opinions, just look at his Army Career and experience.
I wonder what your thoughts are? May be Gumms and BEags and Sasless and others who are well experienced military people have a view.
thanks ***
As Clemenceau once said, "war is too important to be left to the retired colonels generals".
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 17:27
  #14734 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by orionsbelt
Last Night on UK TV GB news program Neil Oliver at at approx. +26 minutes introduced Retired Col Douglas Macgregor
see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6I3wa3uOyI

for background see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor

.
Some very questionable leaps of logic in their arguments, not to mention some ludicrous "facts" such as the Russian economy being in better shape than the Uk / European.one.
And pinning the current mess on the "ruling elite" washes away whatever little credibility was left in the argument.

That said - debate and public discourse is rarely a bad thing, and there probably are sides to the story that have been given little public airtime. I doubt however that they would move the needle on where we are, or what the "right thing to do" is.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 18:11
  #14735 (permalink)  
 
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I wonder what your thoughts are? May be Gumms and BEags and Sasless and others who are well experienced military people have a view.
Nope - so much ill informed garbage flying about as it is. I only bother noting the official MoD statements.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 18:19
  #14736 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by orionsbelt
Last Night on UK TV GB news program Neil Oliver at at approx. +26 minutes introduced Retired Col Douglas Macgregor
see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6I3wa3uOyI

for background see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor

You can draw your own conclusions of the Man however he puts forward a completely different view of currents events in the Ukraine, which to be honest have alarmed me no end . Now before you totally dismiss his views and opinions, just look at his Army Career and experience.
I wonder what your thoughts are? May be Gumms and BEags and Sasless and others who are well experienced military people have a view.
thanks ***

Just to be clear I do not support Macgregor's views in any way.
His thinking contributed to the US strategy in its 2003 invasion of Iraq.”

Pretty much sums up how much credence to take of his views!

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Old 19th Feb 2023, 18:56
  #14737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 212man
His thinking contributed to the US strategy in its 2003 invasion of Iraq.”

Pretty much sums up how much credence to take of his views!
given the controversy around some of the presenters on gb news and with some interesting theories on things I would stay well away….. your post of wiki demonstrates his strong links to the Russians so make of it what you will… I guess time will tell
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 20:52
  #14738 (permalink)  
 
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Very interesting views on the war from the Chinese prespective.
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 21:53
  #14739 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
1/ The Russian government has created a new unified database listing all of those eligible for military service, to make it easier to mobilise people, better able to screen out those with exemptions and catch 'evaders' at border checkpoints and via facial recognition cameras…..

5/ According to the journalists, the new database contains "comprehensive data on those liable for military service. Where they live, what phone numbers and email they have, what property they own, what state of health they are in."….

16/. In addition, it's intended to help track down so-called 'evaders' – those who are trying to avoid military service. The database includes mobile phone numbers and photographs.

17/ This will enable 'evaders' to be tracked down by geolocating their mobile phone signals, as well as enabling the authorities to use CCTV cameras with facial recognition systems to track down those trying to evade mobilisation.

18/ The system is also intended to be used to block people fleeing the country, following the departure of an estimated 500,000 to 1 million people last year. Many of those who fled were able to take advantage of bureaucratic inefficiencies, as the journalists report….

22/ The system is now being adjusted and, if necessary, all information will be available immediately to border guards, says a source at the security service of a Moscow airport."…

23/ While all of this doesn't necessarily mean that another wave of mobilisation is imminent, it's likely to significantly improve the Russian government's ability to do it more quickly and efficiently, with less evasion and less controversy from the wrong people being mobilised.

https://t.co/ecUvqi0R76



More inadequately trained, poorly equipped, badly led cannon fodder for the Ukrainians to kill. That strategy has worked well for the Russians, NOT.

Sounds like the very definition of insanity…..
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Old 19th Feb 2023, 23:36
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Higher resolution video of the video I posted a couple of days ago. It looks like the guy also took out an AFV as well as at least two Russians.


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