Originally Posted by
Beamr
I''m with Xeptu here and this has been discussed earlier in depth in this thread. The assumption is that Ukraine stops at its legitimate borders. Biden made it very clear that if Z-ombies start throwing even the tiniest of nukes, the U.S. will take a stand. Not necessarily by nukes initially but maybe with overwhelming conventional weapons. Call it gloves off if you like. No more Vipers to Ukraine but everything that U.S. has that flies, with crews and things that go bang.
If the Z-team continues tossing NBC's, then there's the rest of the strategic arsenal.
Also that would mean most probably that China gets upset: who would trust a neighbour sending nukes cross the border? It would pretty much quarantee total isolation from the rest of the world.
If V.V.Putin is stupid enough to send a loud and radiating message to a NATO country it would without a doubt mean article 5 activation and at that point it would be game over, maybe for mankind but in any case for Putin and his regime.. NATO joining the war is meaning opening an entirely new front to which Russia has no equipment nor troops to put against. The barracks from Murmansk all the way down to Kaliningrad has been exhausted of troops already. To emphasize the situation we can take the elite spearhead of Russian army that Russia (and Soviet Union) has planned to use as elite counterforce repelling NATO attack, the 1st Guards Tank Army. It was destroyed north of Kyiv a year ago by Ukrainian forces.
But sending a covert ship up Thames turning London into glass and not claiming the quilt? I am sorry but that's a bit too much Hollywood for me. It would not be a subtle reminder nor could it be denied and it would inevitably lead to all of NATO joining the war with the result as above.
Putin may be mad and all that, but I bet that even he is not that stupid to use NBC's. Not over Ukraine. And even in Russia there is a chain of command and events to follow for the nukes tobe launched and the hope is that sanity prevails in there. But the message has been sent to Moscow that at minimum they'll find out why the U.S. is ranked the most powerful army in the world if they use WMD's.
China is downwind, and will not see the funny side of savings on UHT milk courtesy of Vlad the impaler.
Right now, any bucket of sunshine getting popped is going to be attributed to Count Vlad, it could say "Made in North Korea" and "Greetings from our Dear Leader" with pictures of a dude with a curious hair cut pushing the big red button, and it would still be put down to V.V.Pukin.
There is an assumption that the US and NATO response to the Kremlin using NBC would be conventional, and focused within Ukraine to evict the overstayers. That would be both irrational and inappropriate for an attack on a NATO country arising from a hissy fit of a criminal leader who stuffed up "biggly". That would be worthy of lots of popcorn, and SPF 1M, welding googles etc. If Puking wishes to make our home planet as appealing in real estate as the moon is, then the people that can actually stop him aren't sitting in Bonn or Washington, they are standing in the streets of Moscow.
If the West continues to suggest a less than direct response to Vlad, we are increasing the risk of a reckless act, that gets to the same place...
Interesting times.