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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 31st Jan 2023, 18:17
  #14181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tdracer
.

BTW, read elsewhere that they expected the western tanks to be in-theater by the end of March at the latest
Seems reasonable, as it would be the best strategy to have the IFV's and MBT's arriving to the theatre at the same time, and the first batch of Bradleys wlll be in Europe by mid February. Reserve a few weeks for a touch of paint and localized comms plus transfer to Ukraine and end of March is a reasonable time frame. Also supported by estimation of required conversion training for the crews.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 19:18
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Originally Posted by tdracer;11377550 BTW
, read elsewhere that they expected the western tanks to be in-theater by the end of March at the latest
Well, that's what the Brits and Germans have said, which is three months too late to have allowed the Ukrainians to have free movement during the frozen period. Delivery just in time to confront the mud season. Tossers.

What has changed over the past few months that would have stopped the supply of tanks ? The only thing I can think of is the build-up of pressure on Scholz, and that needn't have prevented the Brits - unless they believed that the strategic pressure of Ramstein - plus the Challengers - was needed to push him over the edge.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 31st Jan 2023 at 20:14.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 19:22
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There is obviously a lot of talk of what weapon systems to supply to Ukraine, and how long the training on said platforms will take - understandable. However, I wonder how long it will be before the current reverses, and it is the Ukranians delivering the training to the West, teaching us how to fight Russians. It is something we are probably going to need to know.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 19:22
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Originally Posted by Thrust Augmentation
I think it's the 2nd charge from a tandem charge warhead - the part that would penetrate the real armour after the 1st charge has penetrated the reactive armour (well, when used against armour).
On that video it looked like they were firing on personal attempting to evacuate the wounded. Not very chivalrous.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 20:16
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
There is obviously a lot of talk of what weapon systems to supply to Ukraine, and how long the training on said platforms will take - understandable. However, I wonder how long it will be before the current reverses, and it is the Ukranians delivering the training to the West, teaching us how to fight Russians. It is something we are probably going to need to know.
Not a bad comment, but completely irrelevant at the moment
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 20:18
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Originally Posted by Peter_K
On that video it looked like they were firing on personal attempting to evacuate the wounded. Not very chivalrous.
It seems to be accepted that unless combatants are obviously attempting to surrender, then they are combatants and dealt with in that fashion.

EDIT: Sorry, Identified medics do not fall into that category.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 20:35
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Not a bad comment, but completely irrelevant at the moment
I beg to differ. If we wait until it is relevant in your estimation, it will be too late. The West has been on the back foot for the entire conflict, reacting to what Russia does without being pro-active, and only supplying weapons after Zelensky has begged for them for many weeks or months, or indeed (fast jets) not at all.

It is not only relevant, it is essential. There will be a stray missile, or a deliberate attack (Nordsea pipeline) etc that will be impossible to ignore - it is only a matter of time.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 21:11
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
The dogs biting the hand that feeds them. Even Putin is unable to stop them. This could be some kind of turning point however. Could he order a Wagner hit squad, or would he then be obliging himself to Prigozhin?
I have the impression that even Putin has noticed that his 'Friends' are beginning to become a problem (and in case of Prigozhin a potential threat) for him. There was obvious displeasure with Prigozhin coming on stage more and more openly and aggressively. At the moment I would think that Putin is more worried about Prigozhin than about Kadyrov (who is Muslim so zero chance of taking Putin's chair at some point in time). That said it seems he allowed state TV to publish this. That's a message in itself. I would hazard to guess the best times are over for Prigozhin and Kadyrov.

Last edited by henra; 31st Jan 2023 at 21:24.
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 21:14
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#BREAKING: US readying $2.2Bn weapons package for Ukraine that includes long-range rockets for the first time, according to two US officials - Reuters
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 21:19
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
Indeed, one would assume that the Ukrainians would have the wherewithal to operate the three tanks types as three stand alone forces with their own crewing and support elements, rather than mixing them into the same units.
I'm confident. They have proven time and again to be clever guys and make things work and deal with complications pragmatically and cleverly..
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Old 31st Jan 2023, 21:59
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Originally Posted by Peter_K
On that video it looked like they were firing on personal attempting to evacuate the wounded. Not very chivalrous.
War is not a chivalrous pursuit. Wounding instead of killing an emery combatant to then take out the soldiers who come to his aid has been going on for centuries. If they are red cross
medics some nations might grant them some leeway. Combat medics are fair game. As they are generally indistinguishable from a normal soldier in most western armies. They carry a rifle as well.
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 02:02
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Calls for "Chivalry in War" usually comes from those that never experienced combat....War is all about killing and maimimg the enemy....even civilians to include Children in an all out full fledged war.

Bomber Command during WWII for one example.
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 03:29
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Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst
War is not a chivalrous pursuit. Wounding instead of killing an emery combatant to then take out the soldiers who come to his aid has been going on for centuries. If they are red cross
medics some nations might grant them some leeway. Combat medics are fair game. As they are generally indistinguishable from a normal soldier in most western armies. They carry a rifle as well.
it would make more sense to let the wounded go as they then tie down additional troops and logistics in looking after them.
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 03:54
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
I beg to differ. If we wait until it is relevant in your estimation, it will be too late. The West has been on the back foot for the entire conflict, reacting to what Russia does without being pro-active, and only supplying weapons after Zelensky has begged for them for many weeks or months, or indeed (fast jets) not at all.

It is not only relevant, it is essential. There will be a stray missile, or a deliberate attack (Nordsea pipeline) etc that will be impossible to ignore - it is only a matter of time.
Well, that depends on your interpretation. There have already been "stray missile, or a deliberate attack " and these have been examined and been judged not to be serious enough to make a bigger deal about them. Until one is judged to be worthy of more severe sanction, we remain in abeyance.
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 04:01
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
it would make more sense to let the wounded go as they then tie down additional troops and logistics in looking after them.
From what I have read recently here and elsewhere, there are plenty of examples of the Russian side not being overly zealous in looking after either their wounded or their dead. Normal rules seem not to apply.

One question I have been trying to articulate though, with whispers here and there of requests for cluster munitions, would it be morally indefensible to reply with such banned weapons even if the other side uses them on you? (White phosphorus, butterfly mines, cluster bombs, etc.) I.e. should the Ukrainian army continue to fight with several arms tied behind their backs, regardless of what is thrown at them?
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 04:26
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Neither country signed up to the banning of cluster munitions, see

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDe...r=26&clang=_en

As tragic as it may be, White Phosphorus use is not banned on military targets, only against civilian ones.

​​​​​​…

Last edited by NutLoose; 1st Feb 2023 at 04:41.
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 04:30
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Neither country signed up to the banning of cluster munitions, see

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDe...r=26&clang=_en
Hmmm.... that is an eye-opener. Thanks!
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 07:23
  #14198 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64455123

Good journalism from the BBC. After defeating the initial occupation force and inflicting heavy casualties on Wagner, they're now fighting the formidable regular Russian forces. Hope they get everything they need for their biggest fight yet.
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 08:04
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DT Headline

Johnson suggests Sunak should 'forget about Putin' and send fighter jets to Ukraine


I wonder which ac he had in mind?
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Old 1st Feb 2023, 09:10
  #14200 (permalink)  
 
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Typhoon tranche 1 were mentioned, but I would imagine they are just emptied robbed blind fuselages sitting on scrapped legs by now having been hidden out of sight somewhere to avoid embarrassment..
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