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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 7th Mar 2023, 13:27
  #15201 (permalink)  
 
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Aviation content:

"The U.S. Air Force’s top officer in Europe says JDAM-ERs are now in Ukrainian hands, putting whole new Russian target sets at risk"



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Old 7th Mar 2023, 13:28
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
We don't have the capacity to.

Its all been gradually got rid off over the past 4 decades.....factories gone and sites sold off for housing and other stuff. ROF doesn't exist, all privatised. Production lines closed down....likely tooling destroyed as Govt won't pay to store it and maintain it (just in case)

There is a limit to what you can make with the facilities you have left. Only way to increase beyond that is to build more facilities to increase production capacity, just like they did in WW2.

Except it will now take a lot longer than what was achieved back then.

The stupidity of applying just-in-time policies to defence requirements.
It’s probably not just economics, legislation is continually introduced/changed. It’s bizarre how many explosives have needed re-qualification due to legislation like REACH.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 13:58
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Russia looking over the shoulder and realising they’re “Johnny no mates” amongst their former colonies in the east - and no longer have the forces to frighten them….

It's striking just how quickly Moscow's authority in Central Asia has collapsed. A thread, spinning off the claim by National Anti-Corruption Committee (NAC) Kirill Kabanov chair that "there is no respect for Russia in Central Asia" 1/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...038785024.html
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 14:28
  #15204 (permalink)  
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​​​​​​​Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the video of the shooting of a Ukrainian prisoner of war

"Today, a video has emerged of the occupiers brutally killing a warrior who bravely said to their faces: "Glory to Ukraine!". I want us all to respond to his words together, in unity: "Glory to the Hero! Glory to the Heroes! Glory to Ukraine!" And we will find the murderers," said Zelenskyy in his daily evening video address.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 14:51
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Aviation content:

"The U.S. Air Force’s top officer in Europe says JDAM-ERs are now in Ukrainian hands, putting whole new Russian target sets at risk"



https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/s...264484870?s=20
Encouraging!! Now let’s expedite the provision of FJs - airframes, training, logistics, ground support.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 15:01
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Lukashenko confirms the hull of the A-50 was holed. so no pressurisation then.

https://nashaniva-com.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp



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Old 7th Mar 2023, 15:11
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
We don't have the capacity to.

Its all been gradually got rid off over the past 4 decades.....factories gone and sites sold off for housing and other stuff. ROF doesn't exist, all privatised. Production lines closed down....likely tooling destroyed as Govt won't pay to store it and maintain it (just in case)

There is a limit to what you can make with the facilities you have left. Only way to increase beyond that is to build more facilities to increase production capacity, just like they did in WW2.
.
It's only a guess, but I think it's quite likely that they are/were only working one shift. That would allow for significant uplift if there were firm contracts over some years. This was the situation in the USA with the HIMARS factory which recently announced it was starting a second shift to address the very large surge in orders.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 15:31
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Massive Russian build up in the Zaporizhzia region

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Old 7th Mar 2023, 15:36
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Meanwhile in Moscow it is reported that the building of the capital headquarters of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is on fire

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Old 7th Mar 2023, 19:17
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From the New York Times:
New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/u...e-ukraine.html
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 19:22
  #15211 (permalink)  
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Russia's deployment system is so dysfunctional that many soldiers are reportedly spending weeks "wandering around in search of their units" in border and rear areas, with some being listed as deserters because they have not reported to the units they cannot find. ⬇️

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...299662848.html
​​​​​​​
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 21:06
  #15212 (permalink)  
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Mutinies begin…..

As if we are now getting used to almost daily videos from Russian mobilised soldiers, this one is different. The commander of this platoon is not appealing to Putin, but directly stating he is refusing to obey orders…..

​​​​​​​
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 21:24
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Russia appears to be throwing everything into the fray at Bakhmut - to little success.

A note the number of SAW sites/units destroyed. Not sure why they have so many forward deployed inside Ukrainian artillery range.



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Old 7th Mar 2023, 21:52
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
We don't have the capacity to.

Its all been gradually got rid off over the past 4 decades.....factories gone and sites sold off for housing and other stuff. ROF doesn't exist, all privatised. Production lines closed down....likely tooling destroyed as Govt won't pay to store it and maintain it (just in case)

There is a limit to what you can make with the facilities you have left. Only way to increase beyond that is to build more facilities to increase production capacity, just like they did in WW2.

Except it will now take a lot longer than what was achieved back then.

The stupidity of applying just-in-time policies to defence requirements.
And to top off all that is UKFarce, HMS Enterprise is to retire at the end of the month joining her recently retired sister ship, they will be replaced by two replacement multirole surveillance vessels and some underwater drones THAT HAVEN’T BEEN BUILT YET to take over the role of protecting our underwater cables, the task being carried out by the very ships we are retiring with it appears no replacement any time soon…. At a time when we are at the most threatened.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/hms-...decomissioned/
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 23:02
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Originally Posted by fdr
The response time between his last words and the murder, he was being summarily executed as a prisoner, a blatant war crime by an unspeakable terrorist group. Putin has perverted Russia to the extent that the best that they can be are war criminals, the worst, they are a perverse stain on the reputation of their whole nation. He is murdered by two different war criminals, using automatic weapons. How proud Russians should be of what their spawn do to defenders of the Russian criminal invasion of Ukraine.
Sorry, but this really does mean something to me. This Ukrainian hero was NOT executed, he was murdered, and there is a difference. Execution is the taking of a life for a convicted crime after due legal process. No such process here.

The more I see of the total barbarity and pure evil of the Russian forces, the more I want the entire world to annihilate the Russian military and leadership. I really do feel it is past time to make Russia feel the pain they are causing, by killing Russians, in Russia. They earned it, they deserve it. Time for NATO to step up and actually put their money where their mouth is - they are helping Ukraine, no doubt, but still just watching. History will judge us as cowards.

Compare the bravery of this Ukranian soldier to our woke, inclusive, rainbow coloured CAS and the pathetic shell the RAF has become - he should be fired immediately...utter disgrace. I have no more words. Ukraine is showing Wiggy how pathetic his entire agenda is. He should be focussed on killing people, not promoting inclusion - WWIII is imminent, and he is utterly clueless. He dithers whilst people die - but at least if Ukraine is annihilated, we can rest assured that CAS will be happy if it happened in a gender-neutral and pronoun-inclusive way.

Makes me feel sick. He is a Traitor, in the truest sense of the word. The UK needs strength, and he actively promotes woke weakness. This is not a game, it is potentially the prelude to the end of civilization, and the UK has a woke warrior who cares only about inclusion and diversity in charge of it's Air Force.

Best of luck...

Last edited by Baldeep Inminj; 7th Mar 2023 at 23:36.
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Old 7th Mar 2023, 23:37
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Appalling as this act is, I'm not sure blaming the RAF is called for. Throwing other people's sons and daughters in harms way is very easy from behind a keyboard. Have you thought of volunteering for service in Ukraine yourself?
If WWIII is imminent then all this is pointless anyway.
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Old 8th Mar 2023, 03:26
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Nutty, re: "Massive Russian build up in the Zaporizhzia region"

As someone pointed out, none of those tracked vehicles on the transporters had turrets. (Unless the Z-squad has run out of tank balloons.)

Oh, I'm feeling feint faint.

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Old 8th Mar 2023, 04:06
  #15218 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj
Sorry, but this really does mean something to me. This Ukrainian hero was NOT executed, he was murdered, and there is a difference. Execution is the taking of a life for a convicted crime after due legal process. No such process here.

The more I see of the total barbarity and pure evil of the Russian forces, the more I want the entire world to annihilate the Russian military and leadership. I really do feel it is past time to make Russia feel the pain they are causing, by killing Russians, in Russia. They earned it, they deserve it. Time for NATO to step up and actually put their money where their mouth is - they are helping Ukraine, no doubt, but still just watching. History will judge us as cowards.

Compare the bravery of this Ukranian soldier to our woke, inclusive, rainbow coloured CAS and the pathetic shell the RAF has become - he should be fired immediately...utter disgrace. I have no more words. Ukraine is showing Wiggy how pathetic his entire agenda is. He should be focussed on killing people, not promoting inclusion - WWIII is imminent, and he is utterly clueless. He dithers whilst people die - but at least if Ukraine is annihilated, we can rest assured that CAS will be happy if it happened in a gender-neutral and pronoun-inclusive way.

Makes me feel sick. He is a Traitor, in the truest sense of the word. The UK needs strength, and he actively promotes woke weakness. This is not a game, it is potentially the prelude to the end of civilization, and the UK has a woke warrior who cares only about inclusion and diversity in charge of it's Air Force.

Best of luck...
Please review what I said, and understand my revulsion with the actions of Putin and his criminal gang is intense. I make the point as it is in this case a premeditated murder, of a captured combatant, and the legal correct statement is it is both:
  1. a summary execution, and,
  2. a premeditated murder.
Under International law it is described as a summary execution, and is a specified war crime.

"Under international law, refusal to accept lawful surrender in combat and instead killing the person surrendering is also categorized as a summary execution (as well as murder)"

The evidence is on the tape, that there was a premeditation to take this brave persons life. The time between the commencement of the "glory..." statement and the murder undertaken simultaneously by full automatic fire, which on the spectral analysis appears to have emptied both magazines, is such that the perpetrators had already made their mind up, this was a deliberate, intentional act to kill a prisoner, who was taking a cigarette.

This is an indelible stain on Russia, the act was that of a barbarian, they have abrogated their civil behaviour to the extent that they need to be removed from the UN, they are evidently a terrorist state.

is worth watching to comprehend how repulsive Russia has become in the family of nations. The full 3+ hours is actually interesting, the level of dislike towards Russia is rather substantial. Would prefer to see a Russia that was not intent on acting as a criminal cabal, but, at least they are being called out, even if the UNSC refuses to apply their own damned rule and push Russia out of any voting as they are a party to the dispute per 27(3)'s last sentence. That they are automatically to abstain is the rule, and an abstention is not a veto, a veto is only provided where:
  1. A party has a right to vote (Russia does not on any matter related to Ukraine in the UNSC)
  2. That the party then votes No, (Russia is prohibited to vote).
  3. That the party is a party that has a right of veto (Russia has that, but... subject to 1 & 2 above).
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Old 8th Mar 2023, 09:35
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Sorry, but this really does mean something to me. This Ukrainian hero was NOT executed, he was murdered, and there is a difference. Execution is the taking of a life for a convicted crime after due legal process. No such process here.
I am not trying to defend it in any way shape or form, but to be honest we simply do not know what preceeded the shooting, for all we know he may have been court marshalled, found guilty by the Russian court marshal and taken out to the place of his execution, given a final cigarette, turned down the offer of a hood and then shot.... all highly unlikely, but at this point in time we simply do not know. I personally think it was murder, but until proved and those brought to book one cannot call it one way or the other.
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Old 8th Mar 2023, 09:49
  #15220 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I am not trying to defend it in any way shape or form, but to be honest we simply do not know what preceeded the shooting, for all we know he may have been court marshalled, found guilty by the Russian court marshal and taken out to the place of his execution, given a final cigarette, turned down the offer of a hood and then shot.... all highly unlikely, but at this point in time we simply do not know. I personally think it was murder, but until proved and those brought to book one cannot call it one way or the other.
And yet 60 odd AK12/74 (M-Nagant?) rounds go through the guy, simultaneously.... from 2 different grassy knolls. That was premeditated. If I'm on the jury, (please) that isn't going to be a 12 angry men moment for Janes dad....
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