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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th Feb 2022, 19:31
  #1381 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MPN11
Emotionally tempting, surely? There was another famous Communist Georgian, was there not?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stalin
Well, Putler has unsolved disputes out there, so he could solve those before going for the grand prize. What comes to Stalin, he probably would like to be more reknown than Stalin. Hopefully he will not exceed Stalins achievements.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 19:33
  #1382 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by henra
I think he is tonto but not THAT tonto.

!
I thought so too. After this weeks events I'm not so sure anymore.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 20:02
  #1383 (permalink)  
 
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Which Tonto ? The original side kick to the Lone Ranger or the Johnny Depp version ? It might make a difference
One is just a Hollywood racist trope the other a modern two spirited gender fluid shaman . Is he alluding to Putin being having a deviance similar to Caligula or a racist trope about tribal members off the reservation ?
or both ?

Song by Quantum Jump

The Lone Ranger

Quantum Jump
Taumatawhakatangihangakoayauo-
Tamateaturipukakapikimaungahoro-
Nukypokaiwhenuakitanatahu
Me Tonto Kimosabi
Me go and catchee baddy
Find him by the shady water
Deep within Apache forest
Find him scalp him eat him up for breakfast
Real good friend to Kimosabi
Save another silver bullet
Hi ho Silver away
Ride into tomorrow today
But who was that masked man you say
That was the Lone Ranger
Fill up pipe of peace for Tonto
Kimosabi friend and brother
He smoke pipe of peace with Tonto
Put his mask on back to fronto
Tonto fall about with laughter
He a head our great white brother
Even pass a tote to Silver
Mask man very untogether
Hi ho Silver away
Ride into tomorrow today
But who was that masked man you say
That was the Lone Ranger
Taumatawhakatangihangakoayauo-
Tamateaturipukakapikimaungahoro-
Nukypokaiwhenuakitanatahu
Tonto know that Kimosabi
Never ever have a woman
Tonto sometime stop and wonder
What the trip with the great white brother
Maybe masked man he a poofter
Try it on with surly Tonto
Let me say to mister lawman
Tonto doesn't mind
Hi ho Silver away
Ride into tomorrow today
But who was that masked man you say
That was the Lone Ranger
Source: LyricFind
Songwriters




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Old 24th Feb 2022, 20:25
  #1384 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
If he is hesitant I'd say Georgia.
If he gets really "tonto" he'll try the Suwalki gap.
I was thinking Moldova would be a nice easy pushover for him to round out the Ukrainian territory, and that leaves you with a very nervous Romania.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 20:41
  #1385 (permalink)  
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...ense-minister/

‘We need as much Stinger and anti-tank weapons as possible,’ says Ukraine’s defense minister

WASHINGTON ― Ukraine’s defense minister made a direct plea to Congress Thursday to send his besieged nation anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles through Poland to help it repel Russia’s mikitary assault on Ukraine.

Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov, in avideo dated Thursday and posted to YouTube by Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., said Ukrainian forces are protecting Europe and would fight for their own country but need support.

“We need as much Stinger [anti-aircraft] and anti-tank weapons as possible,” Reznikov said, seated at a conference table with a Ukrainian flag behind him. “In order to provide for reliable procurement of equipment, you may deliver it to Poland. From there we will transport them across the land and quickly saturate our defense.”….


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Old 24th Feb 2022, 20:45
  #1386 (permalink)  
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...ary-movements/

German defense ministry preps citizens for possible military movements

WASHINGTON – The German Ministry of Defense has notified citizens about potential disruptions in the country’s transit system, as Berlin implements NATO guidance for quickly moving troops to reinforce allies.

The announcement Thursday follows an overnight, multi-front push by Russian forces into Ukraine, shutting the door to the kind of diplomatic resolution that German leaders had vested much of their political capital in.

The ministry told Germans to be prepared for movements by the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, through “public space.” In addition, there could be transit restrictions because transport capacities on land, at sea and in the air must be set aside for NATO activation plans, according to the announcement.

The triggering of “national alarm measures,” as German defense officials called them, flows from a NATO catalog of steps, dubbed “crisis response measures,” activated by the alliance early Thursday. Those, in turn, are part of the NATO Crisis Response System, which addresses everything from conflict monitoring to mutual-defense operations under Article 5.

According to the German defense ministry, all levels of the Bundeswehr are tasked to make preparations for switching to a quick-reaction posture in case of a NATO Response Force deployment. Germany has pledged a contingent of almost 14,000 troops in that event.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine has led to a marked shift in tone in a country that has exhibited a deep-seated aversion to anything military in recent decades. German military Twitter was abuzz Thursday with analysts and politicians calling for a wholesale reexamination of the country’s defense capabilities and the money to be spent on them.

As it stands, however, parts of Germany’s armed forces remain in lackluster shape. German Army Chief of Staff Gen. Alfons Mais lamented the state of his service in a widely shared LinkedIn post on Thursday morning. “Imagine you wake up in the morning, and there’s a war in Europe. And the [Germany Army] finds itself more or less blank,” he wrote. “The options we can offer to policymakers in support of the alliance are extremely limited.”
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 20:53
  #1387 (permalink)  
 
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Excellent list covering the following:

Ukraine
Ukrainian accounts, journalists, news orgs, foreign journalists in or near Ukraine & OSINT

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1378399759992512516
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:10
  #1388 (permalink)  
 
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Russian air assault on Hostomel airfield ultimately failed - they didn't expect the strength of counter attack they got - back in the hands of Ukrainians - surviving Russians ran off into surrounding forests.

Notwithstanding that, Russians still expected to attack Kyiv via other routes - just not by airlanded BMP.

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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:19
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There are already some reports that Ukrainian units are getting short of ammunition - ammo dumps seem to have been among the very first targets for missile strikes. Given that there have been offers by NATO members to assist with resupply I don't see how this could be delivered. Air drops look out of the question for a plethora of reasons. Which more or less leaves road transport via Poland as the only viable option. It's easy to imagine how the Russians would react to that eventuality...

Meanwhile a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson was interviewed objecting to the invasion of Ukraine being described as an "invasion". So I think we can guess what Emperor Ping's position is.

So far the "barrage" of sanctions on Russia omits their exclusion from the SWIFT agreement and direct sanctions on Czar Vladimir. I believe that Germany is one of a number of countries who fear financial penalties should Russia be excluded from SWIFT. Biden, whilst squirming, claimed that the banking sanctions he announced were "better than a SWIFT sanction". Are these mutually exclusive options? Er, no.

So far I've not heard any country other than UK restricting Russian aviation - Aeroflot is now banned here. All air transport to and from Russia and Belarus should be stopped immediately (China obviously excepted).
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:27
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Originally Posted by ORAC
German Army Chief of Staff Gen. Alfons Mais lamented the state of his service in a widely shared LinkedIn post on Thursday morning. “Imagine you wake up in the morning, and there’s a war in Europe. And the [Germany Army] finds itself more or less blank,” he wrote. “The options we can offer to policymakers in support of the alliance are extremely limited.”
If he really publicly stated/wrote this, he should be IMMEDIATELY dismissed. You can do this mourning in peaceful times, but not now. That's irresponsible.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:32
  #1391 (permalink)  
 
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After a day spent on the internet watching the situation develop, I am a bit puzzled: I was expecting a full bombing of Ukrainian air defense, then aerial warfare until the Ukrainian army is on its knees, and then ground invasion. Modern warfare, as shown in Irak during operation Desert Storm, for instance. Instead of that, it seems that the Russian army is fighting like it used to fight in 1945: all out charge with every asset available. When blocked, repeat, until the sheer number of troops makes a difference, and make Berlin fall in 15 days with 300.000 deads in your ranks. Am I the only one wondering about the tactics?
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:44
  #1392 (permalink)  
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:51
  #1393 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by henra
If he really publicly stated/wrote this, he should be IMMEDIATELY dismissed. You can do this mourning in peaceful times, but not now. That's irresponsible.
He was speaking truth, as Germany was hard pressed to deliver a single armored brigade.
The unit in question, 'Panzergrenadierbrigade 37', had to rob other elements of the Bunderwehr to get its full complement of vehicles and lacks any organic air defense capability.
However, a combat ready division is projected to be available eventually, possibly as early as 2027.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 21:54
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could be they dont have the locker of missiles that EU and nato actually has, like the bomber fake in the 50s.

could be they are probing levels in case NATO/usa/uk/france respond, im guessing they wont but i hope they do but the time is now.
there is not much time to stand up to a bully in this case. conventionally

ukraine may not exist in few weeks
its hard to watch
its like the most aggressive bully in a playground picking on a nice mate but you all stand by because your afraid.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 22:10
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Originally Posted by fab777
After a day spent on the internet watching the situation develop, I am a bit puzzled: I was expecting a full bombing of Ukrainian air defense, then aerial warfare until the Ukrainian army is on its knees, and then ground invasion. Modern warfare, as shown in Irak during operation Desert Storm, for instance. Instead of that, it seems that the Russian army is fighting like it used to fight in 1945: all out charge with every asset available. When blocked, repeat, until the sheer number of troops makes a difference, and make Berlin fall in 15 days with 300.000 deads in your ranks. Am I the only one wondering about the tactics?
When it comes to conventional warfare, Russia apparently follows a somewhat different doctrine with more or less joint operations in all domains from the start. At least I think that used to be an official doctrine years ago, although some things may have changed with the introduction of cyber, hybrid and better cruise missiles. The apparent intention of overthrowing the Ukrainian Government as quickly as possible and gaining control in the east may also favour early engagement on the ground. Besides, Russian air power isn't on par with NATO.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 22:19
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Originally Posted by fab777
After a day spent on the internet watching the situation develop, I am a bit puzzled: I was expecting a full bombing of Ukrainian air defense, then aerial warfare until the Ukrainian army is on its knees, and then ground invasion. Modern warfare, as shown in Irak during operation Desert Storm, for instance. Instead of that, it seems that the Russian army is fighting like it used to fight in 1945: all out charge with every asset available. When blocked, repeat, until the sheer number of troops makes a difference, and make Berlin fall in 15 days with 300.000 deads in your ranks. Am I the only one wondering about the tactics?
The invasion does not seem to be unopposed, which perhaps leaves the Russian leadership disappointed. Certainly the progress to date seems limited, which allows resistance to build.
Of course, that may be the worst possible outcome, resulting in a protracted conflict with increasing brutality and hatred,.
Perhaps the build up was too small to be overwhelming.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 22:30
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Reading stories and viewing videos of a “lone Mig-29” at treetop level over Kyiv, getting the moniker the “ghost of Kyiv”. Single source so far, but according to reports he’s an ace on the first day.

Su-35 Su-35
Su-27
Mig-29M
Su-25 Su-25

If it’s true, Godspeed. And here’s hoping he lives to tell the tale.

Last edited by nosefirsteverytime; 24th Feb 2022 at 23:20. Reason: Oops, ace is 5, not 3 kills.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 22:34
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The 18-20 Il-76 seen getting airborne by commentators had been expected to bring in BMPs to trundle into Kyiv - or even parachute them as this had been observed en masse on exercises recently.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 22:36
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The fate of the world's only An-225 that was at Antonov Airfield is unknown.
Reports vary from destroyed to damaged to undamaged - the later from an airline pilot at the base but that was after the initial assault by helicopters before the ground counter attack was completed.
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Old 24th Feb 2022, 22:55
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Well, at least it's taken almost a year to answer the original question!
I think it's YES!
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