Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Interesting piece by Jeremy Warner in the Torygraph.
He says if the west were to take any truly meaningful sanction action i.e cutting ourselves off from Russian oil and gas we'd face something akin to or worse than the `73 oil shock.
"...the price of defiance will be high. It is not clear that mollycoddled Western voters have the stomach for it. By all means, Europe must scramble to wean itself off dependence on Russian gas, but exactly the same thing was said in 2014 after Putin annexed Crimea. Instead we got Nord Stream 2 and the closure of Germany’s remaining nuclear power stations. Small wonder Putin thinks he can get away with it."
He says if the west were to take any truly meaningful sanction action i.e cutting ourselves off from Russian oil and gas we'd face something akin to or worse than the `73 oil shock.
"...the price of defiance will be high. It is not clear that mollycoddled Western voters have the stomach for it. By all means, Europe must scramble to wean itself off dependence on Russian gas, but exactly the same thing was said in 2014 after Putin annexed Crimea. Instead we got Nord Stream 2 and the closure of Germany’s remaining nuclear power stations. Small wonder Putin thinks he can get away with it."
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,061
Received 2,934 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
Reports coming in that Norway has seized a super yacht suspected in cutting fibre optic cables.
Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Feb 2022 at 23:21.
tartare, in 1973 we had the military resources to use but did not. In 2022, we do not have the resources to use and cannot. Putin's claim to use the most extreme responses to any resistance which intimates nuclear weapons, is concerning. However, it would seem that he is already encountering domestic resistance, both civil and military. The demonstrations in Russia, and the reported surrender of a reconnaissance brigade who thought they were on a reconnaissance mission rather than a martial one is telling. we are not getting much reporting on Ukrainian successes against the Russian forces, just the effects of Russian attacks. The German act of shutting Nord Stream 2 and the UK shutting the Scope payment system will have the most immediate effect,
Putin's analysis that he could get away with it was almost correct. NATO is not capable of effective military deterrence, but collectively, we can apply soft power deterrence through economic and diplomatic actions. I just hope our politicians, both in NATO, USA , UK and other international organisations such as the UN, can present a united front that resonates with the Russian public and shows their dictator has lied to them.
Putin's analysis that he could get away with it was almost correct. NATO is not capable of effective military deterrence, but collectively, we can apply soft power deterrence through economic and diplomatic actions. I just hope our politicians, both in NATO, USA , UK and other international organisations such as the UN, can present a united front that resonates with the Russian public and shows their dictator has lied to them.
Well, laugh if you like but the efforts to deal with climate change - such as the rapid increase in the production of electric vehicles and the expansion of wind farms seem to me to all be as good for weaning us off foreign gas and oil as they are at fighting climate issues. There's a long way to go but the situation is already very different from a year ago.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,061
Received 2,934 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
It appears Putins announcement of hostilities may have been prerecorded.
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-announc...051653025.html
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-announc...051653025.html
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,061
Received 2,934 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
Donald Trump calls into Fox to berate them for announcing that Americans had launched an amphibious landing in Ukraine and it should have been done in secret, reporter had to correct him and tell him it’s the Russians invading, listen to it here.
https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-host...065958056.html
https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-host...065958056.html
tartare, in 1973 we had the military resources to use but did not. In 2022, we do not have the resources to use and cannot. Putin's claim to use the most extreme responses to any resistance which intimates nuclear weapons, is concerning. However, it would seem that he is already encountering domestic resistance, both civil and military. The demonstrations in Russia, and the reported surrender of a reconnaissance brigade who thought they were on a reconnaissance mission rather than a martial one is telling. we are not getting much reporting on Ukrainian successes against the Russian forces, just the effects of Russian attacks. The German act of shutting Nord Stream 2 and the UK shutting the Scope payment system will have the most immediate effect,
Putin's analysis that he could get away with it was almost correct. NATO is not capable of effective military deterrence, but collectively, we can apply soft power deterrence through economic and diplomatic actions. I just hope our politicians, both in NATO, USA , UK and other international organisations such as the UN, can present a united front that resonates with the Russian public and shows their dictator has lied to them.
Putin's analysis that he could get away with it was almost correct. NATO is not capable of effective military deterrence, but collectively, we can apply soft power deterrence through economic and diplomatic actions. I just hope our politicians, both in NATO, USA , UK and other international organisations such as the UN, can present a united front that resonates with the Russian public and shows their dictator has lied to them.
Vividly remember '73 - were just a nipper in NZ - carless days mandated to save on fuel!
The same pain again would be worth it.
Because the alternative is far worse - an uncontained Russia, an emboldened Xi and Khamenei.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,061
Received 2,934 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
Apparently Latest from Chuhuiv Airbase in Ukraine. Imagery captured on February 21 and today, February 24, 2022.
you would think they would dump vehicles or concrete blocks on the runways to deny use by transports.
tartare, in 1973 we had the military resources to use but did not. In 2022, we do not have the resources to use and cannot. Putin's claim to use the most extreme responses to any resistance which intimates nuclear weapons, is concerning. However, it would seem that he is already encountering domestic resistance, both civil and military. The demonstrations in Russia, and the reported surrender of a reconnaissance brigade who thought they were on a reconnaissance mission rather than a martial one is telling. we are not getting much reporting on Ukrainian successes against the Russian forces, just the effects of Russian attacks. The German act of shutting Nord Stream 2 and the UK shutting the Scope payment system will have the most immediate effect,
Putin's analysis that he could get away with it was almost correct. NATO is not capable of effective military deterrence, but collectively, we can apply soft power deterrence through economic and diplomatic actions. I just hope our politicians, both in NATO, USA , UK and other international organisations such as the UN, can present a united front that resonates with the Russian public and shows their dictator has lied to them.
Putin's analysis that he could get away with it was almost correct. NATO is not capable of effective military deterrence, but collectively, we can apply soft power deterrence through economic and diplomatic actions. I just hope our politicians, both in NATO, USA , UK and other international organisations such as the UN, can present a united front that resonates with the Russian public and shows their dictator has lied to them.
I stand to be corrected, but I was under the impression that the UK did not ban the Swift payment system. Probably one of the most effective sanctions easily available.
I hope I am wrong but after today and the very weak sanctions imposed worldwide I would have to say that he will get away with everything he wishes for. Ukraine will become part of the NEW soviet system and we will be back to business as usual within 18-24 months.
Boris coming out with a speech talking about the most serious sanctions in history is a laugh. They were just marginally more than the last time which had zero effect. Granted you can’t fully blame Boris as all countries did the same.
The only thing that stood a chance was crippling sanctions. Completely freeze russia from the world. No money in, no money out. No people in, and no people out (by way of closing russian airspace). Forfeiture of all assets worldwide (or at least the majority).
The west was too scared and hence it is all over. It will be a few weeks of round the clock news bites but in the end Ukraine is gone and will be subsumed.
Even though I think Putin is a crazy lunatic I don’t think he will go farther. This has been his obsession. In his mind Ukraine is the birth place of Russia and he could not stand to have it outside of his influence. Now that he has it he will be content.
I must say that I so wish Ukraine will be able to put up a Good enough fight to give him at least a couple sleepless nights.
The western governments need to have a good long look at themselves after this. Especially the Europeans.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,061
Received 2,934 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
Totally agree, as I said all Russian passport holders and visa holders should have been banned from travel outside Russia and assets seized. Nothing in, nothing out. To many rich people in the west in power covering their backs. Putin should have been targeted too.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,061
Received 2,934 Likes
on
1,250 Posts
The AN225 has gone, reported destroyed in an air strike. Then apparently not.
Nutty
That image shows an admin building near the threshold burning, not the R35 fuel tanks just photo south of the smoke plume. The runway is totally unaffected..
That image shows an admin building near the threshold burning, not the R35 fuel tanks just photo south of the smoke plume. The runway is totally unaffected..
Reading a post about the guys and girls on Snake Island ordered to surrender by a Russian Warship or he would open fire.
Their last words were "Russian warship - go fvck yourself."
Audio on the web.
Ukraine PM pledges to posthumously honour them.
Their last words were "Russian warship - go fvck yourself."
Audio on the web.
Ukraine PM pledges to posthumously honour them.
Captain & a Corporal POWs from the the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade
Also photos on Twitter of MRAPs abandoned by Russians who then melted away + multiple photos of MBTs / IFVs ambushed with ATGWs - including a turrent blown off a T-82
Wondered that myself - that is a very big bang.
Longer Twitter video - sound of a military turbojet - not a Bear - then explosion in distance:
Can't get video to show...
Longer Twitter video - sound of a military turbojet - not a Bear - then explosion in distance:
Can't get video to show...
In my opinion, comparing sound against some youtube airshow footage (so fairly clear fly past sound to compare against the fly over video), they shot down a Su-25. To me, it sounds like a twin engine turbojet. I think we see a lot of countermeasure flares lighting off and descending with the main wreckage. In the lead up we don't hear the boom/bang noise associated with a rocket booster for a SAM and also only a little canon fire after the impact sound reaches the camera, so maybe a long range shot?
Of course, the aircraft in the video may not be the aircraft/missile that was shot down.
The an-148 also crossed my mind as a possible type.
Of course, the aircraft in the video may not be the aircraft/missile that was shot down.
The an-148 also crossed my mind as a possible type.
In my opinion, comparing sound against some youtube airshow footage (so fairly clear fly past sound to compare against the fly over video), they shot down a Su-25. To me, it sounds like a twin engine turbojet. I think we see a lot of countermeasure flares lighting off and descending with the main wreckage. In the lead up we don't hear the boom/bang noise associated with a rocket booster for a SAM and also only a little canon fire after the impact sound reaches the camera, so maybe a long range shot?
Of course, the aircraft in the video may not be the aircraft/missile that was shot down.
Of course, the aircraft in the video may not be the aircraft/missile that was shot down.