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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 12th Feb 2023, 13:06
  #14561 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
The end of Wagner PMC in the horizon?
Russian version of the night of the long knives coming up?

The more the head zombies fight with each other the better for Ukraine and the rest of the world.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...62557175996416
It may just be that the Kremlin is starting to look towards solutions that keep those in the Kremlin, in the Kremlin. The current situation for expansion of the effort (losses) to gain a few more yards of land fertilised by Russia's productive population, with an economy that has features in common with the Titanic's deck chair arrangements... then Wagner and Mr Prigozin would seem to be an impediment to any agreement that avoids Vlad sitting on the dock of the bay ICC@Hague. Might we be seeing the "window" dressing (6th floor) of Wagner as a means to give Vlad his out that doesn't involve the words Vlad, Out, Window in the same sentence, and avoids war crimes for Vlad, those being deflected to the soon to be departed chief chef d'atrocities.

There has not been an obvious road to success for Vlad for some time, his choices get worse over time, not better; continuing the lunacy will ensure that the former CIS states start looking elsewhere for less pathological friends in 6th floor places.

If Vlad was to withdraw to pre 2014 (1914? looks more like that every day) lines, he may get to hold on to his seat until his pancreas finally does us all a favour. Withdrawal to those lines will result in a couple of talking heads getting payouts of their life insurance policies, but the rest of the world may accept that, like Pol Pot and others before, the pursuit of justice runs up against practicalities.

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Old 12th Feb 2023, 14:38
  #14562 (permalink)  

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JetBlast? Don't think so, there is required content:


But not the aviation, or name of Jun-Armija on the paper planes.

Military.

Imagine the teachers who rehearse such thing to their own youth. Administrators who run the system, scripting the KPIs (shrugs off the idea those are actually Life Performance Indicators).

That is what the aggressor is made of. Rotten but hardened stuff, unscrupulous. Planners beware.

Some of the kids are so innocently proud of putting up a good show.




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Old 12th Feb 2023, 15:18
  #14563 (permalink)  
 
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Above and beyond, the often not mentioned Ukrainian volunteers



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Last edited by NutLoose; 13th Feb 2023 at 00:34.
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 15:31
  #14564 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
BBC reporting that Russian soldiers are currently dying at a rate that's the highest since the first week of the war, at an average of 824 per day. Data comes from the Ukrainian side (naturally), but is considered reliable.

Ukraine "also continues to suffer a high attrition rate".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099
Do we know how many miles of front that is happening? Would help to put the figure into perspective.
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 15:34
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What a Turkey, he couldn’t take a small town and is now talking of reaching the English channel

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Old 12th Feb 2023, 15:38
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
JetBlast? Don't think so, there is required content:

https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1624501752094502912

But not the aviation, or name of Jun-Armija on the paper planes.

Military.

Imagine the teachers who rehearse such thing to their own youth. Administrators who run the system, scripting the KPIs (shrugs off the idea those are actually Life Performance Indicators).

That is what the aggressor is made of. Rotten but hardened stuff, unscrupulous. Planners beware.

Some of the kids are so innocently proud of putting up a good show.
I see they have Cpl Jones amongst them, the lad on the left at the end
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 16:00
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
What a Turkey, he couldn’t take a small town and is now talking of reaching the English channel.
Can't we provide Ukraine with a couple of those AGM-114 R9X bladed missiles to use on him?
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 16:30
  #14568 (permalink)  
 
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30 or so Russian armoured units destroyed near Vuhledar

Reports of large number of Russian tanks and IFV destroyed and abandoned near Vuhledar. Critical Russian bloggers/analysts saying this is likely due to poorly trained troops advancing n columns, thus presenting themselves as easy prey to Ukrainian artillery/drones. Calls for the commanders to face punishment ( as usual )

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-likely-lost-dozens-tanks-failed-attack-vuhledar-uk-2023-02-10/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11742061/Graphic-video-evidence-shows-Russia-suffering-catastrophic-losses-31-armoured-vehicles.html
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 16:36
  #14569 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
If Vlad was to withdraw to pre 2014 (1914? looks more like that every day) lines, he may get to hold on to his seat until his pancreas finally does us all a favour.
Putin would agree in a split second to "withdraw" to pre-1914 lines.
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 17:00
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Originally Posted by Dmitri
Putin would agree in a split second to "withdraw" to pre-1914 lines.
I am sure he would. Photo from Time Maps.


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Old 12th Feb 2023, 17:06
  #14571 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Reports of large number of Russian tanks and IFV destroyed and abandoned near Vuhledar. Critical Russian bloggers/analysts saying this is likely due to poorly trained troops advancing n columns, thus presenting themselves as easy prey to Ukrainian artillery/drones. Calls for the commanders to face punishment ( as usual )
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 18:34
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First they drive all their armored vehicles into a minefield and then they send the infantry without support.

Imagine if they would be competent enough to use them simultaneously and with training.

As the famous Ukrainian soldier put it: we are lucky they are so effing stupid.



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Old 12th Feb 2023, 18:50
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It's long been a Russian tactic to do recce by sending in loads of poorly supported troops. They find out where the defences are from the areas where most troops get killed. Stalin used this same tactic in WWII. We used the same tactic in WWI. Sent tens of thousands "over the top" both to find out where the enemy defences were strongest and in the hope that a few might get through.

Says a lot about the mentality of Russian commanders. Also highlights that many Russian troops aren't ethnic Rus'. A lot of those at the front line are from the far flung regions of the RF. I doubt they are sending many to fight like this from places like Moscow or St Petersburg. The lives of those from the distant regions of the RF are seen as more expendable.
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Old 12th Feb 2023, 22:36
  #14574 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
. We used the same tactic in WWI. Sent tens of thousands "over the top" both to find out where the enemy defences were strongest and in the hope that a few might get through.
Examples please?

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Old 13th Feb 2023, 03:57
  #14575 (permalink)  
 
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Armatas story is apparently over. Well written articlr of the short and inglorious history of it.

"We wanted the best, but it turned out like always." The famous chernomyrdism fit here perfectly.


https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/10/ar...story-is-over/
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Old 13th Feb 2023, 06:15
  #14576 (permalink)  
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Over the last few days the media and not a few accounts on Twitter have run for the clickbait from this Foreign Policy article. There is more to war than numbers of systems.

Logistics & Signals🧵

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...205925378.html
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Old 13th Feb 2023, 06:32
  #14577 (permalink)  
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Reports of large number of Russian tanks and IFV destroyed and abandoned near Vuhledar. Critical Russian bloggers/analysts saying this is likely due to poorly trained troops advancing n columns
​​​​​​​One thing we are relearning is that assaulting entrenched defensive positions with minefields that are covered by artillery fire and under observation is very difficult. Moving in a file makes sense to avoid mines especially if you have a limited number of minerollers.…
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Old 13th Feb 2023, 06:36
  #14578 (permalink)  
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Pakistan is in desperate need of foreign currency to prevent economic collapse. Ukraine desperately needs artillery ammunition to prevent military collapse.

It looks like the US & EU just spent some money solving both problems⬇️

Pakistan has reportedly stepped up military supplies to Ukraine via a German port, simultaneously with the Poland route, to transfer rockets for use in BM-21 MLRS. More than 10,000 rockets meant for use in Grad MLRS have been shipped.

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Old 13th Feb 2023, 08:12
  #14579 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
Examples please?

Plenty of examples in WWI of commanders that still had the tactics from the past deeply engrained. There was a belief by some that the tactics of the mass charge was still valid. Black Adder parodied the idiocy of some of those in command well. So well that at the time it was first broadcast some complained that it showed WWI leaders in a bad light. To put this view in balance, the French and German generals adopted similar strategies. If you want names, then the French General Robert Nivelle stands out. General Douglas Haig adopted similar tactics, as did General Alexander von Kluck.

My personal view is that it was just down to past experience not being suited to the step change in the way wars were fought. The generals had experience of wars being won by massed cavalry charges against an enemy. Cannon fire would take out strongly defended emplacements, the cavalry would charge to drive the enemy back and a massed infantry charge would finish battle. Things changed with trench warfare, and WWI large scale trench warfare developed partly because of the tactics of the German General Alexander von Kluck. It was his tactics that directly created that very long front line.

All getting off-topic though. The common feature with the Russo-Ukrainian war is that there has been a long defensive line along the Donetsk and Luhansk for 9 years now.
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Old 13th Feb 2023, 09:30
  #14580 (permalink)  
 
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Ammo

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64596363

Excellent report from Orla Guerin with the Uke front line. We Do really need to give them more help!
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