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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 7th Dec 2022, 23:31
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
The astounding, and somewhat discomforting, element of this war is the massive amount of near-real time, high resolution, photographic and video coverage, not from journalists and media outlets in the main, but from what are often called "citizen journalists". I salute them for what they are doing. Hopefully their actions may help to persuade the youngsters that glorify war in video games that war is always bloody, tragic and a needless and brutal waste of life. If they also get the message that it is the human ego that creates wars like this, and that being egotistical is not a positive character attribute, then so much the better.

Sadly I'm cynical enough to doubt that many will take heed of any of the above.
Completely agree...
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Old 7th Dec 2022, 23:48
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Originally Posted by rattman
US not screwing around, this is the proposed 2023 spending plan

Section 1244 (Temporary Authorizations Related To Ukraine and Other Matters) of the proposed 2023 NDAA released Tuesday calls for the procurement of:
  • 864,000 155mm rounds, including XM1128, XM1113, M107, and M795 rounds;
  • 2,050 155m Excalibur M982A1 rounds;
  • 12,000 AGM–179 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM);
  • 700 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 1,700 MGM–140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS);
  • 2,600 Harpoons;
  • 1,250 Naval Strike Missiles;
  • 106,000 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS);
  • 3,850 PATRIOT Advanced Capability–3 (PAC–3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles;
  • 5,600 FIM–92 Stingers;
  • 28,300 FGM–148 Javelins;
  • 5,100 AIM–120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM);
  • 2,250,000 Modular Artillery Charge System (MACS);
  • 950 Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASM);
  • 3,100 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM);
  • 1,500 Standard Missle–6 Missiles (SM–6); and
  • 5,100 Sidewinder Missiles (AIM–9X).
I suppose "spending" (i.e., ordering) is done more quickly than manufacturing and taking delivery, but thank goodness we are getting on with it.
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Old 7th Dec 2022, 23:54
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Completely agree...
Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
The astounding, and somewhat discomforting, element of this war is the massive amount of near-real time, high resolution, photographic and video coverage, not from journalists and media outlets in the main, but from what are often called "citizen journalists". I salute them for what they are doing. Hopefully their actions may help to persuade the youngsters that glorify war in video games that war is always bloody, tragic and a needless and brutal waste of life. If they also get the message that it is the human ego that creates wars like this, and that being egotistical is not a positive character attribute, then so much the better.

Sadly I'm cynical enough to doubt that many will take heed of any of the above.
This might seem an odd way to look at it, but I have a theory as to why we see so many clips filmed on phones, one is the plethora of mobile phones these days, but the other and my theory is people see death and destruction on TV and the web all the time and they become sanitised to seeing it.
Therefore when they see it in real life, by watching it happen through their phone, that puts the screen between the real events in front of them and isolates them in effect, as it would with a TV screen.
It in a way forms a mental barrier and shuts them off from the realities of the horrors they are witnessing in front of their eyes..
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 00:21
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Looks like Venezuela might be on Putin’s holiday plans, and if you look on the Iranian thread he might have company.

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Old 8th Dec 2022, 00:38
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Syria has an amenable climate.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 01:27
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
Hopefully their actions may help to persuade the youngsters that glorify war in video games that war is always bloody, tragic and a needless and brutal waste of life. If they also get the message that it is the human ego that creates wars like this, and that being egotistical is not a positive character attribute, then so much the better.
Totally agree with you but there's a fine line between propaganda & motivation. Motivation, as in what ordinary Ukranians are doing right now. Propaganda, as in demonising the enemy in order to...motivate the populace.

Do we want to demotivate people in order to limit possible loss of life, as opposed to a 'gung ho' attitude? Would we accept Elon Musks idea of stopping to save lives, but Ukraine gets the raw end of the deal? I don't know the answers of course, but your points have made me think about it. My Mother hated Germans because of the Blitz & probably had good reason personally, but never let go of it! My Mother in Law hated the Japanese (different War) but had no personal involvement or experience of the Pacific War. Still hated them though.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 01:28
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Syria has an amenable climate.
If Putin falls then Assad might be looking at Venezuela as well.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 01:37
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Damn these are easily identifiable locations.

​​​​​​​
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 02:12
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
If Putin falls then Assad might be looking at Venezuela as well.
Heh, imagine Putin and Assad holding hands and walking off into the sunset.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 06:56
  #12450 (permalink)  
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Add another 100K onto the estimated 90K Russian KIA - because the Wagner recruits aren’t, it seems, being included in army reported figures….

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Old 8th Dec 2022, 07:15
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Damn these are easily identifiable locations.



https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/sta...Cx-bPpx7YsAAAA
Nutloose
What ever river that is it is not recent judging by trees and indeed uniform. Trees would have lost their leaves by now and there would be snow on the ground.

Cheers
​​​​​​​Mr Mac
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 07:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
This might seem an odd way to look at it, but I have a theory as to why we see so many clips filmed on phones, one is the plethora of mobile phones these days, but the other and my theory is people see death and destruction on TV and the web all the time and they become sanitised to seeing it.
Therefore when they see it in real life, by watching it happen through their phone, that puts the screen between the real events in front of them and isolates them in effect, as it would with a TV screen.
It in a way forms a mental barrier and shuts them off from the realities of the horrors they are witnessing in front of their eyes..
Reasonable assessment.
I saw a couple of nasty fatals when I was younger (aircraft and RTA) and they stayed with me for a long time. These days I'm not affected when I see Ukrainian war deaths on the various media, such as the Russian soldier being shot to death through the outhouse door, others grenaded by drones or blown out of the sky in their helicopters.. It's probably because they're considered the bad guys. Overspill from the entertainment world ... sounds awful, doesn't it ...
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 09:53
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Originally Posted by stevef
Reasonable assessment.
I saw a couple of nasty fatals when I was younger (aircraft and RTA) and they stayed with me for a long time. These days I'm not affected when I see Ukrainian war deaths on the various media, such as the Russian soldier being shot to death through the outhouse door, others grenaded by drones or blown out of the sky in their helicopters.. It's probably because they're considered the bad guys. Overspill from the entertainment world ... sounds awful, doesn't it ...

The first violent death body I saw was the pilot of an A/C that had crashed shortly after take off. That vivid memory has never left me. Before that I had no idea just what a very violent death looked like, the only dead person I'd seen was my father, who died peacefully after a long illness. He just looked as if he was asleep, and that was how I thought of death for years. I had no concept of the effect violent forces had on the body in reality, even now, 50 years later, I still remember that young pilot no longer having a face. Some of the photos from Ukraine have brought that back, especially the image in NutLoose 's post #12431 above. That brought it all back with a vengeance when I saw it, I'm not ashamed to say I openly wept about it again when seeing that, for the first time in years.

I can understand video games and screens making war and violence seem impersonal and unreal. However, I can also remember being pretty much forced to watch some road safety films in the station cinema in the 1970', produced (I think) by an American police force. They had taken cameras out to the scene of major road accidents, and filmed the horror of those accidents. Most involved young men, like us, and most involved drinking. Two images from those films stick with me to this day. The bloodied remains of a headless torso that had been forced up through the roof of a car, and a still alive young man on the ground, missing both legs, screaming and grasping at the grass around him. These films were shocking, so much so that some left the cinema to chuck up. They were effective. Despite being a reckless and irresponsible young man, I never drank alcohol if there was any chance I might need to drive a car.

Perhaps we need shock tactics to convince young people that war is not a video game.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 09:57
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Interesting map of Russian fortifications in the east. Map created from OSINT.



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Old 8th Dec 2022, 10:06
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Or just go around them and isolate them - seems to be a well used tactic so far.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 10:19
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Or just go around them and isolate them - seems to be a well used tactic so far.
or... since the Z team reverts to ww1 strategies, how about an equally old school 11 hourish arty bombardment a'la Verdun with modern weapons accuracy...
and then go around.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 10:22
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Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
T

" I can also remember being pretty much forced to watch some road safety films in the station cinema in the 1970', produced (I think) by an American police force. They had taken cameras out to the scene of major road accidents, and filmed the horror of those accidents. Most involved young men, like us, and most involved drinking. Two images from those films stick with me to this day. The bloodied remains of a headless torso that had been forced up through the roof of a car, and a still alive young man on the ground, missing both legs, screaming and grasping at the grass around him. These films were shocking, so much so that some left the cinema to chuck up. They were effective. Despite being a reckless and irresponsible young man, I never drank alcohol if there was any chance I might need to drive a car."
Agrajag
They were showing those same films to 16 year old Boy Entrants in in the early 1960's I'm not sure that it would have any effect on the youth of today.
Like you I have been watching some of the twitter feeds and had to force my self to acknowledge that they were real people dying and that some where
there were families going to grieve.

cliver029
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 10:23
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Damn these are easily identifiable locations.
One of the soldiers says (on Russian language) at 0:54: "It is 2016. We are pushing through Hormuz."

So obviously it is a pre-invasion drill.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 10:25
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Or take out their supply lines?

It's getting very cold there, conditions are appallingly bad in the defensive positions by all accounts, and Ukraine has shown significant skill in being able to knock out logistic supplies in the past. Coupled with what seems to be far poorer morale amongst Russian forces, and the inevitable slow down of any advances on the ground as winter sets it, that has to be a tactic that might give Ukraine the nest bang for the buck, with the least loss of life. Depends how good Russian AD is in that region, and whether Ukraine can effectively defeat it.
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Old 8th Dec 2022, 10:29
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Originally Posted by cliver029

Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
" I can also remember being pretty much forced to watch some road safety films in the station cinema in the 1970', produced (I think) by an American police force. They had taken cameras out to the scene of major road accidents, and filmed the horror of those accidents. Most involved young men, like us, and most involved drinking. Two images from those films stick with me to this day. The bloodied remains of a headless torso that had been forced up through the roof of a car, and a still alive young man on the ground, missing both legs, screaming and grasping at the grass around him. These films were shocking, so much so that some left the cinema to chuck up. They were effective. Despite being a reckless and irresponsible young man, I never drank alcohol if there was any chance I might need to drive a car."
Agrajag
They were showing those same films to 16 year old Boy Entrants in in the early 1960's I'm not sure that it would have any effect on the youth of today.
Like you I have been watching some of the twitter feeds and had to force my self to acknowledge that they were real people dying and that some where
there were families going to grieve.

cliver029
Perhaps educational films like that might not be as effective today, but we should be able to come up with some way to convince youngsters that what they see on screens in games bears absolutely no resemblance to the reality of violent death.
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