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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 11:17
  #11181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
I'm not sure that it is a parody, it appears that Solovyadayada stopped drinking the Kool-Aid, and is prepared to tell it as it is.
It comes from https://twitter.com/RealSubtitles . That's a known parody channel. But don't worry, it fooled me too in the past.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 11:26
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 11:48
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Grain deal is back..

BUT more interesting, so much for Minor damage to one ship!

The Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate is being towed on the high seas. Apparently, the damage was significant, since this ship cannot sail under his own power
Double tugged, so lost power and steering?







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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:08
  #11184 (permalink)  
 
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Hitting a landmine while on the move and shrugging it off!

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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:23
  #11185 (permalink)  
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Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, contributing to heightened concern in Washington and allied capitals, according to multiple senior American officials.…
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:30
  #11186 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Grain deal is back..

BUT more interesting, so much for Minor damage to one ship!



Double tugged, so lost power and steering?









https://twitter.com/ITrollgstem/stat...71214260568068
Not surprising seeing the drone footage cut off when the thing was parked next to the engine rooms of the ship.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:32
  #11187 (permalink)  
 
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They really need to stop being woolly around the edges on this, the West keeps bleating on about a robust response, grave consequences etc, one does hope that behind closed doors they are telling the Russians privately one nuclear explosion in Ukraine will result in an equal response in Moscow or similar, just to show that the consequences will be that severe and leave them under no pretensions that the result will be anything else. So that they know in no uncertain terms that letting that genie out of the bottle will have far reaching consequences.

I.E calling their bluff, which by continuing the grain exports after Russia tried to stop them has proved that standing up to them they have nowhere to turn..
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:42
  #11188 (permalink)  
 
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Article in The Guardian today.
Could Ukraine’s drone attack on Russian ships herald a new type of warfare?

It had all the thrill of a daring commando raid, filmed live. But Saturday’s dawn raid on Russia’s Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol was not carried out by elite soldiers, but by 16 drones, nine in the air and seven at sea – prompting questions as to whether the attack represented a revolutionary moment in the history of warfare.


Click for the full article.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:49
  #11189 (permalink)  
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Grain convoys to continue with ships bearing the Turkish flag and under the protection of the Turkish navy.

Would an attack trigger Article 6?

Not in or over Turkish territory, the Med or the North Atlantic as specified.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:52
  #11190 (permalink)  
 
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I suppose the next step it to mount sea launchable drones on the sea based suicide drone, meaning it can carry shorter range airborne suicide drones to the target area, launch them then go into attack while the drones distract the enemy.
Question is how do you counteract it, guns as seen, or launch your own suicide drone from your ship and steer it at the on coming one then detonate it in close proximity to take it out?
Destroyers have torpedo tubes to launch from the side of the ships, are we going to see those with remote suicide drones in them instead?
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 12:58
  #11191 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They really need to stop being woolly around the edges on this, the West keeps bleating on about a robust response, grave consequences etc, one does hope that behind closed doors they are telling the Russians privately one nuclear explosion in Ukraine will result in an equal response in Moscow or similar, just to show that the consequences will be that severe and leave them under no pretensions that the result will be anything else. So that they know in no uncertain terms that letting that genie out of the bottle will have far reaching consequences.

I.E calling their bluff, which by continuing the grain exports after Russia tried to stop them has proved that standing up to them they have nowhere to turn..
Agreed and have felt this for some time. The grain issue is an opportunity for NATO navy to escort the ships, just to make it clear we mean business because I doubt he thinks we do. Frankly I wonder myself.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 13:15
  #11192 (permalink)  
 
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AVIATION CONTENT:

What is helicopter is this? it has a nose gunners position, but not a remote one??

Also very low level.

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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 13:24
  #11193 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Grain convoys to continue with ships bearing the Turkish flag and under the protection of the Turkish navy.

Would an attack trigger Article 6?

Not in or over Turkish territory, the Med or the North Atlantic as specified.
Art. 6 For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
  • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
  • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.



UNCLOS:
  • The territorial sea is regarded as the sovereign territory of the state.
  • A state's territorial sea extends up to 12 nmi (22 km; 14 mi) from its baseline. If this would overlap with another state's territorial sea, the border is taken as the median point between the states' baselines, unless the states in question agree otherwise. A state can also choose to claim a smaller territorial sea.

If the ships are outside of 12nm from a NATO coast, then it would be up to each of the signatories to determine what they do, they can still do UNC 51 instead, but NATO doesn't have an explicit obligation in that case. Right now, I would think that chipping the paint of a Turkish vessel by Russia while escorting grain ships would end up with a lot of ships siting in the Black Sea 12.1nm from every major port of Russia's, and the Russian illegally annexed territory. In fact, for that, they may approach as close as Ukraine allows, it's their coast, not Russia's.

It would sink the Russian's reputation lower than it is now, which is close to the mooring point of the Moskva.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 13:24
  #11194 (permalink)  
 
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Hip family helicopter. They can install a cockpit gunner position in the middle.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 13:26
  #11195 (permalink)  
 
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Mi-8.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 14:00
  #11196 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
Article in The Guardian today.
Could Ukraine’s drone attack on Russian ships herald a new type of warfare?
prompting questions as to whether the attack represented a revolutionary moment in the history of warfare
Click for the full article.
I think that there are much earlier examples - e.g. fire ships, which were used centuries ago, notably to break up the Spanish armada at anchorage.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 14:16
  #11197 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly-by-Wife
I think that there are much earlier examples - e.g. fire ships, which were used centuries ago, notably to break up the Spanish armada at anchorage.
As the Guardian piece noted, if you had bother to read it before commenting.
After Sevastopol, many naval experts said the idea of drone boats was not anything new, citing precedents such as fireships, used repeatedly from ancient times.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 14:17
  #11198 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly-by-Wife
I think that there are much earlier examples - e.g. fire ships, which were used centuries ago, notably to break up the Spanish armada at anchorage.
There was the USS Cole as well, but they were suicidal, one does wonder if the damage could be similar, see

https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-c...s-cole-bombing
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 14:21
  #11199 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC
: Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, contributing to heightened concern in Washington and allied capitals, according to multiple senior American officials.…
How do the American 'sources' know that? A few observations at your link:
Feels like something Russians leaked to scare the Americans and force negotiations. If not, then Russian channels are completely compromised by US intel.
Wonder if we've got a Mole in there somewhere.
From how it sounds I'm pretty sure it was "leaked" on purpose
The Russians do have some different ways to send signals, yes.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
one does hope that behind closed doors they are telling the Russians privately one nuclear explosion in Ukraine will result in an equal response in Moscow or similar, just to show that the consequences will be that severe and leave them under no pretensions that the result will be anything else.
If you can get 30 nations to agree to that, such a communique might be sent. There may be some NATO nations, like France, who are not keen at all about escalation. And Germany might be feeling that way at the moment.
Originally Posted by ORAC
Grain convoys to continue with ships bearing the Turkish flag and under the protection of the Turkish navy. Would an attack trigger Article 6?
Probably not, but I suspect a high level consultation would be in order, as I am sure that NATO has a contingency plan for that very thing already drafted.
Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
The grain issue is an opportunity for NATO navy to escort the ships, just to make it clear we mean business because I doubt he thinks we do.
Do you mean a flotilla made up of NATO ships from various nations (similar to Operation Sharp Guard), or, as the Turks have already done, provide ships to escort and they (Turkey) are in NATO?
Wonder if the Romanians or Bulgarians are contributing to the escort mission. They are in NATO as well.
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 14:32
  #11200 (permalink)  
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Update on the Nord Stream pipeline explosions…

https://www.nord-stream.com/press-in...-02112022-529/Nov. 2, 2022 | Zug, Switzerland |

As of 2 November 2022, Nord Stream AG has completed initial data gathering at the location of the pipeline damage on Line 1 in the Swedish exclusive economic zone.

According to preliminary results of the damage site inspection, technogenic craters with a depth of 3 to 5 meters were found on the seabed at a distance of about 248 m from each other.

The section of the pipe between the craters is destroyed, the radius of pipe fragments dispersion is at least 250 m.

Experts continue to analyse the survey data.
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