Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

Nukes in Cuba again and another crisis?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ing-a-dead-end

Russia threatens military deployment to Cuba and Venezuela as Ukraine talks falter

[admikar]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Once bitten twice shy, Europe will learn from this and seek other sources of energy for the future to the detriment of the Russian economy. I would imagine holding the west to ransom over energy is being looked at very closely and the reliance on Russian gas will be a decreasing demand from now on.

Nah. Few years of more expensive fuel and they'll go right back. Buyers want goods as cheap as possible. Result? Manufacture of consumer goods is mostly located in Asia, despite the talks about the need to bring it back for years and years now.
And Russian gas is the cheapest option, or all those pipelines wouldn't be built in the first place.

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Once bitten twice shy, Europe will learn from this and seek other sources of energy for the future to the detriment of the Russian economy. I would imagine holding the west to ransom over energy is being looked at very closely and the reliance on Russian gas will be a decreasing demand from now on.

Other options are coal, a GHG non starter, nuclear, unpopular in Germany, solar, mostly a dud in the European winter, wind, not that reliable, especially during cold spells. Think Russian gas still makes the most sense.
Alternatively, we could have left Qaddafi to run Libya and put in a honking big trans Med pipeline, but no one thought of that at the time....

[henra]

Originally Posted by admikar

Nah. Few years of more expensive fuel and they'll go right back.

Maybe. But they will make sure to have other options. Be it by having bigger LNG Port facilities to enable more supply via Shipping. And they will put the supply on a broader basis.
I think this will indeed harm Russian Gas sales on a longer Term. Trust is quickly destroyed and only veeeeery slowly restored. Takes many Years/decades.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Other options are coal, a GHG non starter, nuclear, unpopular in Germany, solar, mostly a dud in the European winter, wind, not that reliable, especially during cold spells. Think Russian gas still makes the most sense.
Alternatively, we could have left Qaddafi to run Libya and put in a honking big trans Med pipeline, but no one thought of that at the time....

I could never figure out the rush to get rid of coal in the UK, South Africa during the sanctions used to convert it into liquid fuels as did Hitler.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction

[ORAC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ns-2022-01-13/

Sweden boosts patrols on Gotland amid Russia tensions

STOCKHOLM, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Sweden's military said on Thursday it was ramping up its visible activities on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland amid increased tensions between NATO and Russia and a recent deployment of Russian landing craft in the Baltic…..

Gotland, Sweden's biggest island, is strategically important and lies around 330 kilometres (205 miles) from Kaliningrad, the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet. In 2019 Sweden deployed an updated ground-to-air missile defence system on the island.

Lieutenant General Michael Claesson, Chief of Joint Operations at the Armed Forces, told Reuters that from Thursday troops were patrolling the harbour and airport of Visby, Gotland's main town.

Sweden is not a NATO member but has close ties to the Atlantic alliance and has been beefing up its armed forces after decades of neglect amid increased anxiety over Russian sabre-rattling in the Baltic Sea region.

Claesson said the Gotland move was triggered by Russian landing ships entering the Baltic Sea this week and followed years of deteriorating security conditions, including in Sweden's immediate geographic vicinity.

"Recent security developments and tensions at security policy level have not changed that picture but rather reinforce it," he said, adding that the armed forces had recently noted an expansion of foreign offensive capability near Sweden.

"... Russian landing ships are an example of such offensive capability," he said. "They have passed through (Denmark's) Great Belt strait and continued into the Baltic Sea."

Claesson said the armed forces were also taking action in other parts of Sweden in response to recent Russian moves but declined further comment.

[eko4me]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I could never figure out the rush to get rid of coal in the UK, South Africa during the sanctions used to convert it into liquid fuels as did Hitler.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction

And the South African plant that still undertakes this conversion is the largest single point source of CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere.

[NutLoose]

Government Cyber attacks ongoing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...c93_story.html

[melmothtw]

South Africa during the sanctions used to convert it into liquid fuels as did Hitler.

Lol, not sure apartheid South Africa and the Third Reich should be our yard sticks.

[havoc]

US Intel

First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

Washington (CNN)The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion.

The official said the US has evidence that the operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces.
The allegation echoes a statement released by Ukraine's Ministry of Defense on Friday, which said that Russian special services are preparing provocations against Russian forces in an attempt to frame Ukraine. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan hinted at the intelligence during a briefing with reporters on Thursday."Our intelligence community has developed information, which has now been downgraded, that Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating the pretext for an invasion," Sullivan said on Thursday. "We saw this playbook in 2014. They are preparing this playbook again and we will have, the administration will have, further details on what we see as this potential laying of the pretext to share with the press over the course of the next 24 hours."
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Friday that "the military units of the aggressor country and its satellites receive orders to prepare for such provocations."The US intelligence finding comes after a week's worth of diplomatic meetings between Russian and Western officials over Russia's amassing of tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine's border. But the talks failed to achieve any breakthroughs, as Russia would not commit to de-escalating and American and NATO officials said Moscow's demands -- including that NATO never admit Ukraine into the alliance -- were non-starters.


The US official said that the Biden administration believes Russia could be preparing for an invasion into Ukraine "that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives.""The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February," the official said. "We saw this playbook in 2014 with Crimea."
The US has also seen Russian influence actors begin to prime Russian audiences for an intervention, the official said, including by emphasizing narratives about the deterioration of human rights in Ukraine and increased militancy of Ukrainian leaders.

During December, Russian language content on social media covering all three of these narratives increased to an average of nearly 3,500 posts per day, a 200% increase from the daily average in November," the official noted.
The US, NATO and European officials held high-stakes meetings this week with Russian officials. At the end of the three meetings on Thursday, both sides came away with a pessimistic outlook. Russia's deputy foreign minister suggested the talks had reached a "dead-end" and saw no reason to continue them, while a senior US official warned that the "drumbeat of war was sounding loud" following the diplomatic sessions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia believes NATO will increase its activity along its border with Ukraine if Moscow doesn't obey the West's demands."While our proposals are aimed at reducing the military confrontation, de-escalating the overall situation in Europe, exactly the opposite is happening in the West. NATO members are building up their strength and aviation. In the territories that are directly adjacent to Ukraine, on the Black Sea, the scale of exercises has increased many times recently," Lavrov said.
This story is breaking and will be updated.

[Beamr]

Pravda says that Russia apparently increasing the troops to 500000
"Russia redeploys military hardware and personnel to western borders
....It appears that Russia is putting its troops on high alert against the background of a very high risk of provocations on the part of NATO.
Given the scale of the transfer of military hardware, it appears that Russia is taking efforts to build up the troops on its western borders to 500,000. Most of the Russian troops will thus be deployed in western regions of the country."
14.01.2022 18:52
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotsp...5-russia_army/

Additonally:
Pravda 14.01.2022 19:25
"Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast
Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington."
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...ian_submarine/

[NutLoose]

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...a_usa_nuclear/

Russia will be able to defeat the United States easily in the event of a nuclear war, well-known military expert Alexei Leonkov told Sputnik in Russian YouTube channel.
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...a_usa_nuclear/

I wonder what he has been sniffing? I doubt many on any side would survive, the blokes a cocking idiot.

[ORAC]

Logistics, logistics and logistics……

Forget attacking the tanks - go for the trucks and the fuel bowsers….

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...em-in-ukraine/

The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Could Be A Problem In Ukraine.

[Imagegear]

Additonally:
Pravda 14.01.2022 19:25
"Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast
Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington."
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...ian_submarine/

Very few people know the reason behind why the Submarine needed to surface. They do not give away their location unless under extreme duress.
Something serious happened to cause this action.

IG

[unmanned_droid]

All this is doing is creating the narrative for the home nation that Russia simply had no choice but to act. I think its been decided that an invasion will happen, they're just trying to make themselves look like the good guys to the neighbours and locals.

If they do go to war in Ukraine, how will that affect the countries bordering Russia then? more or less likely to look to move away from Russia? and who's next?

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Logistics, logistics and logistics……

Forget attacking the tanks - go for the trucks and the fuel bowsers….

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...em-in-ukraine/

The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Could Be A Problem In Ukraine.

And his bridge into the Crimea.

[ORAC]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...e-disintegrate

Russia Orders Snap Drills Of Its Eastern Units As Negotiations Over Ukraine Disintegrate

The Russian military has launched a series of snap drills in the far east of the country, leading to speculation that additional forces could be being prepared to move west, closer to the border with Ukraine, where Moscow has been steadily massing troops and equipment as fears of a potential invasion of that country grow.

These military maneuvers in the far east of Russia come after talks between Russian and Western officials to address the worsening security situation ended in a stalemate. At the same time, a large-scale cyberattack targeting Ukrainian government websites has occurred.

The Russian Ministry of Defense today released footage of the snap drills in the Eastern Military District, including armored vehicles and other military equipment being loaded onto trains as part of what it described as an inspection drill to practice deploying over long distances.

“Some formations and units are being transferred to unfamiliar training grounds at a considerable distance from their points of permanent deployment,” Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti news agency reported. “Particular attention will be paid to the possibilities of transport infrastructure for the movement of military personnel and equipment.”.....

Twitter

Twitter

[blind pew]

Spent several hours trekking in the mountains to paraglide with a mate from Dresden…he mentioned what the Ukrainians did helping his countrymen during the war and said they deserve it..from a man who grew up under the Russians.

[Recc]

Originally Posted by blind pew

Spent several hours trekking in the mountains to paraglide with a mate from Dresden…he mentioned what the Ukrainians did helping his countrymen during the war and said they deserve it..from a man who grew up under the Russians.

What a ridiculous thing to say. Only a tiny percentage of Ukrainians alive today were old enough to have taken part in WWII and of those that did, the majority fought for the red army. Your mate really thinks that indiscriminately killing their great-grandchildren is deserved? Or does he believe in the sins of the fathers? Presumably, in that case, he deserves "it" too.

[squawking 7700]

As I understand it, from a Ukrainian relative, he had two 'choices' during WW2, conscription in to the German army or conscription in to to the Russian army - his words were, the German army was the lesser of two evils.