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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th Dec 2021, 16:29
  #441 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Now Russian citizens as Putin has issued them all Russian passports.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31234248.html
All of them???
Eastern Ukraine (even Donbass + Luhansk alone) has much more inhabitants than the 500.000!?
Classic casus belli.
???
For whome?
Ukraine? Should they invade Russia?
Russia? why would that be a reason for them to wage a war?

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Old 24th Dec 2021, 16:34
  #442 (permalink)  
 
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It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 16:44
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.
Now where's the nearest Dutchman ?
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Old 24th Dec 2021, 20:41
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Originally Posted by ATSA1
Peace is always acheivable..it just needs someone to swallow their pride, and back down...
Who in this case?
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 04:50
  #445 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Who in this case?
A question that reminds me of the Irish “Troubles”

The true answer? Both
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 05:23
  #446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.
reminds of an attack to a certain radio station in Poland in 1939 and what came out of that.
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 07:05
  #447 (permalink)  
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The passport/citizenship issue in eastern Ukraine is redolent of the Sudetenland Crisis…

https://www.historyhit.com/sudetenland/
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 17:05
  #448 (permalink)  
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Telegraph reporting that 10000 Russian soldiers have pulled back pending talks with US/UN...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...de-escalation/

Russia pulls back 10,000 troops from near Ukraine in surprise de-escalation

Move comes ahead of expected talks with the US potential Nato concessions, but analysts warn there is still an 'enhanced' military presence


Russia said on Saturday it was pulling back about 10,000 troops from near the Ukrainian border in an unexpected major de-escalation as it gears up for talks on Nato concessions with the United States.

The troops from the Southern Military District will return to their permanent bases after months of drills near Ukraine because they have accomplished their tasks, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.

"A stage of combat coordination of divisions, combat crews, squads at motorised units... has been completed. More than 10,000 military servicemen... will march to their permanent deployment from the territory of the combined arms' area of drills," Interfax quoted the army as saying.

The exercises were held in several regions near Ukraine, including in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, as well as in the southern Russian regions of Rostov and Kuban, according to the report.

Russia has been amassing troops and equipment near the border with Ukraine since October, raising fears of an imminent invasion. Military analysts have said the buildup was inconsistent with regular military exercises.
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 17:29
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
A question that reminds me of the Irish “Troubles”

The true answer? Both
What should the Ukraine do differently?
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 18:33
  #450 (permalink)  
 
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Nothing, they are an independent sovereign state and neither should NATO, we were invited into the new Countries of NATO and have worked together in peace and prosperity, we didn’t take them by force as the old Soviet Union did, they are on the whole also part of the EU as well, a free and democratic gathering.
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 20:40
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Nothing, they are an independent sovereign state and neither should NATO, we were invited into the new Countries of NATO and have worked together in peace and prosperity, we didn’t take them by force as the old Soviet Union did, they are on the whole also part of the EU as well, a free and democratic gathering.
Think it is perhaps more complicated.
Ukraine is a post WW2 construct, generated by the USSR to boost its voting power in the UN.
Khrushchev arbitrarily allocated Crimea and surrounds to the Ukraine in the 1950s, perhaps to atone for his role in the murder by starvation of millions of Ukraine peasants as a part of Stalin's anti Kulak regime.
There is considerable evidence that the recent Ukraine leadership seeks to eliminate the substantial Russian minority, evidenced by the hard fought decision to prohibit Russian language instruction \in the primary schools.

Think the conflict here is entirely stupid, Ukraine is so closely related to Russia that the idea of a non Russia linked state is asking for a civil war.
Competent political leadership recognizes these realities and adjusts for them.
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Old 25th Dec 2021, 21:12
  #452 (permalink)  
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More Sudetenland type arguments etudiant.

Ukraine is a sovereign country, recognised by the UN and it’s security guaranteed by the signature nations to the Budapest Memorandum - including Russia.
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Old 26th Dec 2021, 10:17
  #453 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Think it is perhaps more complicated.
Ukraine is a post WW2 construct, generated by the USSR to boost its voting power in the UN.
Khrushchev arbitrarily allocated Crimea and surrounds to the Ukraine in the 1950s, perhaps to atone for his role in the murder by starvation of millions of Ukraine peasants as a part of Stalin's anti Kulak regime.
There is considerable evidence that the recent Ukraine leadership seeks to eliminate the substantial Russian minority, evidenced by the hard fought decision to prohibit Russian language instruction \in the primary schools.

Think the conflict here is entirely stupid, Ukraine is so closely related to Russia that the idea of a non Russia linked state is asking for a civil war.
My ex-MiL was born in Lviv in Poland in 1930.....but since WW2 Lviv has been in Ukraine, but pre-WW2 a great swathe of what is now western Ukraine, over half of what is now Belarus, and even part of what is now south-eastern Lithuania, including Vilnius was all Poland.

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Old 26th Dec 2021, 17:29
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
My ex-MiL was born in Lviv in Poland in 1930.....but since WW2 Lviv has been in Ukraine, but pre-WW2 a great swathe of what is now western Ukraine, over half of what is now Belarus, and even part of what is now south-eastern Lithuania, including Vilnius was all Poland.
Very much to the point, the national frontiers were shifted to the west after WW2, so the ethnic structures of the countries involved changed. Creating a new national consciousness is not easy under these circumstances.
It is hard to see what advantage the post coup Ukraine leadership hoped to derive by putting its minority Russian rooted citizens into the doghouse, for instance prohibiting Russian language public schools.
The effect has been to accentuate the fissures in the country, rather than to consolidate it..
A perspective on the education law and the issues that it has accentuated is here: https://www.realcleardefense.com/art...sm_808516.html

Last edited by etudiant; 26th Dec 2021 at 21:31.
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Old 27th Dec 2021, 02:14
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Originally Posted by etudiant
There is considerable evidence that the recent Ukraine leadership seeks to eliminate the substantial Russian minority, evidenced by the hard fought decision to prohibit Russian language instruction \in the primary schools.
.
Ah, yes, that"s just what the Russians did in the Soviet era but they did it in a much larger scale: move big portions of (or entire) ethnic people to somewhere else and replace them with ethnic Russians. A very striking example is the deportation of Crimean tatars. Then Russian was made mandatory in schools. The exact reasons why so many ex soviet countries have issues with ethnic russians nowadays are lying in soviet era.

The human suffering caused and crimes commited by russians during the entire existence of USSR are well remembered throughout ex soviet countries from Crimea to Carelia and Katyn to Kabul. With Putin being nostalgic about it and annexing parts of sovereign countries scares everyone else.

The famine caused by USSR in Ukraine combined with mass deportations of the era gives reason enought to stand against any Russian increment of influence.
You are saying that there is evidence of Ukrainian leadership trying to eliminate Russian minority. Well, Russian leadership HAS ELIMINATED ukrainians throughout the history and there are proof of it, too.
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Old 27th Dec 2021, 11:44
  #456 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Ah, yes, that"s just what the Russians did in the Soviet era but they did it in a much larger scale: move big portions of (or entire) ethnic people to somewhere else and replace them with ethnic Russians. A very striking example is the deportation of Crimean tatars. Then Russian was made mandatory in schools. The exact reasons why so many ex soviet countries have issues with ethnic russians nowadays are lying in soviet era.

The human suffering caused and crimes commited by russians during the entire existence of USSR are well remembered throughout ex soviet countries from Crimea to Carelia and Katyn to Kabul. With Putin being nostalgic about it and annexing parts of sovereign countries scares everyone else.

The famine caused by USSR in Ukraine combined with mass deportations of the era gives reason enought to stand against any Russian increment of influence.
You are saying that there is evidence of Ukrainian leadership trying to eliminate Russian minority. Well, Russian leadership HAS ELIMINATED ukrainians throughout the history and there are proof of it, too.
All true, very dark history here, so lots of bitter hatreds.
That said, I see no upside for the Ukraine in penalizing the country's large minority groups by a blunderbuss ruling that hits not only the Russians, but also the Poles and the Hungarians.
Who wants to fight for a country that treats you as second rate?
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Old 27th Dec 2021, 12:26
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It wouldn’t surprise me if they threw their own Molotov cocktail at their own consulate to escalate things.
This already happened, but in the opposite direction. Pro-nazi Ukrainian nationalists threw bottles with this "cocktails" to the Russian consulate in Lvov (Lviv). Russia replied with the diplomatic note, only.

Regarding troops.
1. Ukraine concentrated more troops near the border than Russia (more than a half of their army) and started doing it first. Why this fact is not addressed when blaming Russia?
2. Any country is free to locate their forces on its territory. Imagine Cuba would start demanding to remove all the US forces out of Florida because they are too close to "the island of freedom" and they are scared?

Regarding escalation.
1. If any country plans to attack another, the first thing is to break all diplomatic and trade links, withdraw the personnel and warn its citizens that the territory is unsafe and they should relocate. Is this happening? No.
2. IMO, Russia has one serious move in its pocket - to recognise Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. Like it did with South Ossetia and Abhazia after Georgia started the war and killed many Russian peacekeeping staff there. After that it can sign treaties to secure their security. But there are no signs of such warnings as yet.

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Old 27th Dec 2021, 13:21
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Originally Posted by A_Van

Regarding troops.
1. Ukraine concentrated more troops near the border than Russia (more than a half of their army) and started doing it first. Why this fact is not addressed when blaming Russia?
2. Any country is free to locate their forces on its territory. Imagine Cuba would start demanding to remove all the US forces out of Florida because they are too close to "the island of freedom" and they are scared?
Ukrainian troops have not entrred Russian territory and eg shot down civilian aircrafts.
Ukraine has not annexed parts of Russia.
Ukrainian authorities have not threatened Russia with invasion.
Russia has done all that to Ukraine.
Russian soldiers have already entered Ukrainian soil.

So there is a big difference in Ukraine stationing its troops and Russia stationing its troops, as latter is already in Ukraine.
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Old 27th Dec 2021, 13:25
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Originally Posted by etudiant
All true, very dark history here, so lots of bitter hatreds.
That said, I see no upside for the Ukraine in penalizing the country's large minority groups by a blunderbuss ruling that hits not only the Russians, but also the Poles and the Hungarians.
Who wants to fight for a country that treats you as second rate?
Apparently the russian speakers are already fighting for another country within Ukraine.
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Old 27th Dec 2021, 16:41
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Originally Posted by etudiant
It is hard to see what advantage the post coup Ukraine leadership hoped to derive by putting its minority Russian rooted citizens into the doghouse, for instance prohibiting Russian language public schools.
Yes but I'm sure Russia hasn't been idly standing by doing nothing either. You can bet they've been stirring things up too. Its pretty evident Putin is still p*ssed off at losing Ukraine. Question is, is he willing to risk everything to take it back?

The situation reminds me of that prior to the '03 Iraq invasion - all those troops marched up the hill on the thinnest of pretexts (if you ignore 911, which most Americans seem to do nowadays). Surely Vlad remembers what happened there? And that was with the world's premier superpower up against what was a pretty depleted and ragtag opponent...

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