Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
Russian open source strategic doctrine describes using low yield tactical nuclear weapons in a “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. So they nuke some small city in central Ukraine and say to Zelenski declare Donbas and Crimea belongs to Russia or we nuke more cities.
I think that there is no way Ukraine would capitulate but what if Putin decides to go for broke and keeps on upping the escalatory ladder ?
The big question is what does the West do now. Are we really ready to risk WWW3, or will Ukraine be pressured to give in ?
I'm with beamr on this one BPF; to permit any back down in the face of aggression guarantees it comes again. There is no solution that exists where a NATO entry with troops on the ground into Ukraine is not required following a use of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons; the Pavlovian learner response otherwise is that Russia can threaten anyone at anytime, and have zero consequences. The only way to guarantee no escalation is to place a determined response that removes option from Russia, not one that gives a gift for aggression, that anything other than involvement of USA and NATO and other countries would include. In fact, as an aside, I'd invite China to take a bite out of Russia's backside too.
Putin is an existential threat to the 3rd rock, wishing otherwise doesn't change that, it emboldens him.
Spent a lot of my life chasing nukes, hate them with a passion. Hate people who threaten their use more.
Asymmetric options for Ukraine get pretty unpleasant for Russia, and are on the head of Putin; there is no one else pushing his agenda, it is all Putin.