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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 30th Aug 2022, 15:15
  #8661 (permalink)  
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Russian Defence Ministry reach peak efficiency by releasing Ukrainian losses in Kherson for August 30 a day earlier…..

Last edited by ORAC; 31st Aug 2022 at 05:59.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 15:33
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Nutty,
Polite request, would you frame your twitter links in the way that ORAC does, I can see his but not yours.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 15:41
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I wonder if there is any truth in it? trouble is that still does not get rid of the combat effectiveness of them, they simply become an obstacle to overcome further down the line. The fact they are allegedly negotiating means they know they are stuffed, it will also allow those wanted for warcrimes to escape.
I recall seeing a report that this had been requested by the Russians before, but was refused by the Ukrainians. Tricky one to know how to play - personally I too would want to see them out of the fight for good, but then I see the merit in allowing them to leave without expending too much of your combat power and allowing them venting their frustrations on the local populace as they did elsewhere in Ukraine.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 15:46
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Originally Posted by uxb99
A very humane suggestion. Mine would be to hit them hard with the aim of destroying them. No sense being squeamish, I doubt the Russians would if situation were reversed.
If UKR captures many Russians, that gives them lots of leverage for trading for their own prisoners, and in other aspects should there be a negotiation. (See also the decision to encircle but not destroy the Egyptian 3rd Army in the Sinai in 1973).
Originally Posted by ORAC
UKR asking Kherson primary sources (locals in villages etc) not to report the advance/arrival of UKR troops for Opsec reasons….
Good idea, good luck with implementation
Originally Posted by MikeSnow
For those who don't speak Ukrainian:
Interesting.

For langlybaston: I believe you. I just felt that in your application of brevity (the soul of wit!) a bit too much was omitted on what IPB is. In support of your point: when I worked at a CAOC we had a full time Met Team on task 24/7. Very valuable, per your own experiences, and all were top notch.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 15:59
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Originally Posted by beardy
Nutty,
Polite request, would you frame your twitter links in the way that ORAC does, I can see his but not yours.
I used too, but the MODS asked me not too ages ago, if you quote the link will show then copy and paste, I will try to quote a few and hope the mods are lenient, others have this problem as do I on some of the PC's I use.

​​​​​​…

Last edited by NutLoose; 30th Aug 2022 at 16:50.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 16:03
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 16:07
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Russian sources today: "There is no Ukrainian offensive... VDV armed with BFGs are defending against hordes of Ukrainians... Ukrainians have lost 549 tanks and 40,000 hohols in one village... We are Russians, we will definitely win!"



Hmmm, If he is so sure, he wouldn't have any issue about giving his L/L.... after all, according to him, Russia is what, about to enter Paris?

His mother would not be happy with his texting his L/L....
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 16:15
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Originally Posted by uxb99
A very humane suggestion. Mine would be to hit them hard with the aim of destroying them. No sense being squeamish, I doubt the Russians would if situation were reversed.
The relative restraint that Ukraine has managed to retain in the face of grotesque aggression by Putin has resulted in enhanced stature in the eyes of the world that is providing them support in their hour of need. That is something that Putin fails to comprehend, it is not in the Russian psyche to be humane in their treatment of their own people, let alone those friends on the adjacent countries that they attack with monotonous regularity. Ukraine is facing in part, troops that didn't ask for what is happening, have no desire to be there, and would prefer to be anywhere else, above ground. Accepting their surrender and disarmament would be a good outcome for the press-ganged troops, and unfortunate conscripted troops, particularly if they can be detained under protective custody pending their repatriation, should they wish to go back to the Death Star.



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Old 30th Aug 2022, 16:30
  #8669 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Strategic summary of the Kherson pocket….



On Kherson

"We provoked the Russian troops into mass redeployment. Now the largest grouping of about 25 thousand men is concentrated on the right bank and we have closed it."
I'm confused... "right bank"?

The Russians on the NW bank of the Dneiper have a good chance of having improved board and lodging soon, assuming that they are wise enough to do the maths. Ukraine has been effective in interdicting Team Red's logistics, which is OK for now, but then becomes a constraint to their advance into the SE region below the Dneiper thereafter. The improvement in their fire capability works to improve the situation, as long as they continue to interdict and weaken Russias MSR in the East of the Ukrainian territory. That may make is a necessity to take out the Kerch Bridge on its western approaches. The wild card may be the consequences of a mass capitulation in the field, that would have fairly substantial repurcussions back on the Death Star. The revenge of the Sith, Nerds, oppressed masses of the Rodina might be prompt and permanent, if the grip on power is seen to be slipping. I would contend that Russian natives clamouring for evacuation from near the Ukraine border would improve that possibility.

Amazingly, Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia, that could never be the case, it's like The Bahamas attacking the USA, but they may make it hard for Darth Vlader to remain at the helm of the mothership.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 16:37
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I'm confused... "right bank"?
The banks of a river are named from which side is on the left and right as you face downstream to the sea.

Hence the Left bank of the Seine in Paris is to the south whilst that of the Thames is to the north.

The Dnipro flows south to the Black Sea, so the right bank is to the west.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 16:54
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You learn something every day.
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Old 30th Aug 2022, 18:49
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Antonovsky bridge - “It’s not f***ing repaired, it broke in half and fell in the river”…

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Old 30th Aug 2022, 19:10
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Well it’s one way to get the message across

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Old 30th Aug 2022, 19:22
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Well it’s one way to get the message across
STFU is good Military policy. Sadly the Twitterati live differently.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 01:14
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Aviation Content.

That’ll be all those Ukrainian helicopters that Russia shot down in the first week lol

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Old 31st Aug 2022, 01:32
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It sounds like the defence of Kherson was crumbling before the Ukrainian counter attack.

When Vicktor Zolotov, director of the Russian National Guard, briefed his boss, President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday on the status of military operations in Ukraine, one remark in particular stood out.

“I especially want to emphasize that we feel the support of the population in the liberated territories,” Zolotov told a stone-faced Putin.

In reality, Russia has been struggling to rally the support of its own troops, according to internal government documents obtained exclusively by Yahoo News that detail drunken acts of insubordination six months into Putin’s invasion.


The documents include an incident and homicide report by the Russian Investigative Committee’s Military Investigations Department for the Black Sea Fleet regarding a June 19 incident in which three Russian soldiers were shot and killed and two others wounded in a gun battle with officers of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, at a bar in Kherson City, on the banks of the Dnieper River.

The city lies at the epicenter of an oblast that has been occupied by Russian forces since late February and which Ukraine yesterday appeared to launch operations to recapture. Details of that operation are hard to obtain, as Kyiv has announced a media blackout of ongoing military activities. But videos posted to social media show a series of Ukrainian artillery strikes on military installations, weapons and ammunition depots and key bridges have continued throughout the last 24 hours. In response, Russian air defenses have been activated throughout the oblast.

Kherson Stremousov, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson, has fled the region and even recorded a video Tuesday from a hotel in Voronezh, Russia. Meanwhile, there have even been unconfirmed reports of gunfire in the Pivnichny and Tavriiske neighborhoods of Kherson.


Russia’s equivalent of the FBI can at least attest to gunfire in Kherson city two months ago — between Russians.

According to the Investigative Committee’s report, at about 8 p.m. on June 19, Igor Yakubinsky, Sergei Privalov and D.A. Borodin, three officers attached to the sub-division Military Task Force No. 9 of the FSB entered the Food Fuel cafe on Ushakova Avenue when they discovered two contract soldiers, Sgt. Sergei Obukhov and Junior Lt. Igor Sudin “idly spending time, consuming alcoholic drinks,” according to the Investigative Committee documents.

The FSB officers remonstrated with the enlisted men for drinking while in uniform. Obukhov responded by removing his sidearm and firing rounds into the floor, the report stated. Privalov tried to grab the gun, whereupon Sudin started spraying the security servicemen with rounds from his AK-74 assault rifle, as Privalov and Yakubinsky returned fire.


Obukhov, Privalov and Yakubinsky “died on the spot,” according to the documents, while Borodin and Sudin were “hospitalized with injuries of varying degrees of severity at Federal Naval Clinical Hospital No. 1427 of the Russian Defense Ministry, located in Sevastopol,” in occupied Crimea. A fourth FSB officer, unidentified in the documents, fled the site.

Obukhov, 28, and Sudin, 31, both belonged to a Russian military unit known as the 8th Artillery Regiment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The shootout, which is now subject to a criminal case under the purview of V.O. Savchenko, an official in the Military Investigations Department, is the latest example of problems involving military discipline among Russian soldiers in the occupied territories of Ukraine.



Reports of Russian soldiers’ alcoholism have been rampant in Ukraine and morale has suffered as Putin’s war drags on without achieving its primary goal of regime change.

In Kherson, especially, Russian occupiers have been the targets of presumed Ukrainian guerrilla activities including assassinations and patrol ambushes. Earlier this month, Sky News quoted a local Ukrainian journalist in Kherson who told the outlet that in the suburbs of the city Russian soldiers parade around hammered, “a bottle of alcohol in one hand, a machine gun in the other.”
https://news.yahoo.com/report-drunk-...001518057.html
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 07:57
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Currently its being awfully quiet about the progress in Kharkov area, but here's the first indications of whats going on.

"Our OSINT-team also has reasons to believe that Ukraine may have forced the Russians out of Liubomyrivka and Ternovi Pody. This is, however, unconfirmed at this point. It seems that the Russians have experienced some setbacks, but have been able to hold most of the line. 19/"

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Old 31st Aug 2022, 10:02
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Ukrainian front line troops have been banned from having press along for next few weeks with threats of the press losing their accreditation. Rightly too.

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Old 31st Aug 2022, 10:53
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ins-in-kherson
Even considering the sparseness of available information, the above report sounds somewhat ominous to me.
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Old 31st Aug 2022, 10:58
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Originally Posted by skridlov
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ins-in-kherson
Even considering the sparseness of available information, the above report sounds somewhat ominous to me.
why would you expect anything else. These are large amount of rookie troops going against entrenched positions, exactly the same as what the russians have been required to do. Theres going to be big a body count on the ukrainian side
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