Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

They’ve got the technology - and now something to copy. Depends if they were able to start wartime production.

Doesn’t have the same range - but adequate in Kherson…

https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/product/kvitnik

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Wait, what, on the post #12 on that thread it is claimed that Ukraine is currently manufacturing their own equivalent of Excalibur projectile for the M777.
Anyone able to find any proofs of that?

https://militaryleak.com/2022/04/02/...ed-ammunition/

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

They’ve got the technology - and now something to copy. Depends if they were able to start wartime production.

Doesn’t have the same range - but adequate in Kherson…

https://ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/product/kvitnik

But that's laser guided vs Excalibur GPS guidance. I understood from the thread that Ukraine is building the equivalent of the Excalibur.
or am I missing something here?

[The Helpful Stacker]

Originally Posted by ORAC

UKR using Iranian shells. Got to be a story behind tha5 purchase….

I wonder if they've come via, or were intended for, Syrian or Yemeni elements?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...HZdIyIruSfeCfw

Ukrainian strikes

In the last 24 hours, the UAF general staff has announced 8 strikes on storage depots and 6 on HQs, including a corps-level HQ.

This was most likely the 22nd corps that is operating in Kherson. Also struck were: a ferry crossing, 3 clusters of enemy personnel, and 8 AA positions.

This level is now occurring on a daily basis…..

[NutLoose]

And of course accurately, expending the minimum amount of shells while the Russians eat through their dwindling stocks at a higher rate.

[Recc]

Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker

I wonder if they've come via, or were intended for, Syrian or Yemeni elements?

I suspect that you are correct. Western nations (UK and US in particular) have quite large stocks of Iranian made weapons.

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-A...nian-missiles/

I'm pleased to see that they are being put to good use.

[Pali]

Most of the people are focusing on the offensive in Cherson oblast now but there is another unexpected direction of attack which may prove even more important. Ukrainians are pushing towards Kupyansk which means Izyum and the whole garrison on the west bank of Siverski Donec may be cut off and annihilated. Per reports from Russian side they are in deep trouble and once the line of defence is broken there is an empty space behind. Russian army seems to be overstretched and units are undermanned. Somebody is pocketing money for non-existing soldiers.

One example here:

Twitter

Or here:

Twitter

[rattman]

Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker

I wonder if they've come via, or were intended for, Syrian or Yemeni elements?

Pakistan seems to be a discussed option, pakistan is acting as a 3rd party, buying them and selling them on. Even prior to the invaison pakistan was a big buying of ukrainian grain. Something like 40% came from Ukraine

[AndySmith]

Warning, aviation content. What could appear to be an RF SU-25 being shot down - possibly by a UAF aircraft?

Twitter

[Recc]

Originally Posted by AndySmith

Warning, aviation content. What could appear to be an RF SU-25 being shot down - possibly by a UAF aircraft?

Well spotted! I'd assumed a SAM, but if you pause at 5s you can see a (the?) missile accelerating right to left. Certainly looks from the speed and direction that it was fired by the trailing aircraft.

[peter we]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Wait, what, on the post #12 on that thread it is claimed that Ukraine is currently manufacturing their own equivalent of Excalibur projectile for the M777.
Anyone able to find any proofs of that?

Poland and Ukraine jointly developed an laser guided equivalent about a decade ago. Doesn't seem to have gone into production in Poland as the manufacturer involved doesn't list it on its Web site. It was tested and worked well, Poland also build a nato standard laser designator, also works with the ATGM's the country's developed together.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by peter we

Poland and Ukraine jointly developed an laser guided equivalent about a decade ago. Doesn't seem to have gone into production as the manufacturer involved doesn't list it on its Web site. It was tested and worked well, Poland also build a nato standard laser designator, also works with the ATGM's the country's developed together.

That's about the same what SU did in the 80's (see Krasnopol), however my question is related to GPS guided artillery munition, but apparently that was a hoax or a misunderstanding by the tweeter as I for one can't find any info regarding Ukrainian made GPS guided arty goods.

[ORAC]

Russian units under strength and filled with press-ganged conscripts with minimal training who don’t know how to use their equipment…

How long before a general collapse takes place?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...jSpvy5NHauCYrw

Girkin says Balakliya was defended by LDPR mobilised and Rosgvardia who didn't know how to use available heavy weapons; Ukrainians entered swiftly on armour rendering Rus. artillery ineffective; beat the f*ck out of the garrison.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...jSpvy5NHauCYrw

Wagner GREY ZONE - "do not expect good news today"

Recaps Ukrainian advance in Balakleya, mentions several downed Russian aircraft including an Su-25 and two helicopters.

[ORAC]

Surround, bypass and press on!!

p.s. Note all these reports are from Russian forces on Telegraph channels, UKR forces are maintaining OPSEC discipline…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...jSpvy5NHauCYrw

Russian Aleksandr Kots confirmed much more sophisticated plans of Ukrainians to cut off the Izyum group; Balakliya not important to be taken at all costs; blames Ministry of Defence for hiding the bad news.

[peter we]

Originally Posted by Beamr

That's about the same what SU did in the 80's (see Krasnopol), however my question is related to GPS guided artillery munition, but apparently that was a hoax or a misunderstanding by the tweeter as I for one can't find any info regarding Ukrainian made GPS guided arty goods.

The Soviet and Ukraine shells were analog.the polish guidance system is digital, the body of the shell and mechanical parts were Ukrainian. Its not GPS but laser guidance is better if you have a drone, human.to hit moving targets.
Find info on this is difficult, but these shells were a fraction the price of US laser guided shells and <10% of Excalibur.
Too expensive for Ukraine at the time, however.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...jSpvy5NHauCYrw

Strikes in Hola Prystan one hour ago.

P.S:Hola Prystan is another location which Russians try to use as port for barges and ferries to supply Kherson frontline

[ORAC]

Troops in Kharkiv Oblast abandoning their posts, including all their weapons and fleeing. Interesting to see they were issued with armour proof vests - filled with foam rubber….

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...jSpvy5NHauCYrw

[ORAC]

Depends how much you trust the figures.

Some commanders will be reporting their paper soldiers as dead to collect the death benefits.

Some commanders won’t be reporting KIA because they want to keep drawing their pay as long as possible.

The ministry will have increased the number of reported in order to claim and embezzle as much as possible - whilst minimising payouts to families by claiming they are MIA/deserters….

https://twitter.com/svensalumets/sta...jSpvy5NHauCYrw

The document leaked from RUS MinFin says that by AUG 28, 361.4B RUB has been paid to families of KIA soldiers, 7.4M per one. Dividing would give 48838 confirmed dead. This does not include those MIA, killed separatists and WIA…..

And they say they need another 271 billion before the end of the year and three times as much for 2023.…

[Beamr]

Russian troops are overwhelmed by the Ukrainians using combined arms attack and call it "NATO style".

Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces are using effective NATO style combined arms attacks on their positions and they are totally overwhelmed in some areas.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...74654310277120

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