Originally Posted by
ORAC
Strategic summary of the Kherson pocket….
On Kherson
"We provoked the Russian troops into mass redeployment. Now the largest grouping of about 25 thousand men is concentrated on the right bank and we have closed it."
I'm confused...
"right bank"?
The Russians on the NW bank of the Dneiper have a good chance of having improved board and lodging soon, assuming that they are wise enough to do the maths. Ukraine has been effective in interdicting Team Red's logistics, which is OK for now, but then becomes a constraint to their advance into the SE region below the Dneiper thereafter. The improvement in their fire capability works to improve the situation, as long as they continue to interdict and weaken Russias MSR in the East of the Ukrainian territory. That may make is a necessity to take out the Kerch Bridge on its western approaches. The wild card may be the consequences of a mass capitulation in the field, that would have fairly substantial repurcussions back on the Death Star. The revenge of the
Sith, Nerds, oppressed masses of the Rodina might be prompt and permanent, if the grip on power is seen to be slipping. I would contend that Russian natives clamouring for evacuation from near the Ukraine border would improve that possibility.
Amazingly, Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia, that could never be the case, it's like The Bahamas attacking the USA, but they may make it hard for Darth Vlader to remain at the helm of the mothership.