Originally Posted by
Beamr
Thanks, so it's the worst case scenario, however latest I saw from UK MOD was estimate of 50k total KIA/WIA (july 17th, BBC interview with Admiral Tony Radakin), and that would make more sense.
My issue with the number 180 is that it would mean that 65% of Russian ground forces (280000) would've been wiped out already. This would mean that the Russian front would've already collapsed and there would hardly be any troops left in any of the garrisons from Kola peninsula to Kuril islands.
Also, the roughly 50k KIA is Ukrainian figure with the UK and US figures being way much more conservative.
Then the turret numbers, as Z force has lost 1800 MBT's it would be up to 5200 tank crew members, but not all were blown up, some were just abandoned. In any case it woukd not be a number of significance otherwise than that those were specially trained crews, much harder to replace than the average DPR "volunteer".
I don't have more accurate numbers or direct knowledge so my assumptions are just that, but If we take the different estimates and average it out to 20-25k killed, we'd have a number of 80-100k discounted from the Z force. Which as a number is huge, but more plausible.
Either way, it would seem to be unsustainable by Russia without a general mobilisation, which would be heading towards an accelerated collapse of his economy, and an increase in the likelihood of internal revolt. The latest activities are passing the point of being dissent, to selective attack. A review of the prior bad luck cases in Russia may suggest that much of that was done by Russians and not Ukrainians. That is conjecture but not outside of possibility.
The MBT losses have been pretty tough on Russian families, but they have been manned mainly by 3 man teams for most types. The fatalities to non fatal casualties are still high, but not near 100%, but they are still higher than the historical 1:3, which itself has always had variability between period, conflict, corps involved etc. For armour, it's always been pretty bad odds if hit by effective weapons. The ICVs of all types have been messed up by the munitions employed, the crew numbers seem to have been about as expected, the dismounts have been way less than full complements. For those, estimates based on losses of 10-13 tel per vehicle would have been overestimated, much of those vehicles have been running lower numbers of troops. The headquarter strikes have been devastating, and frequent, the number of officers that are known to have been killed so far, admitted by Russia was approaching 1000 a week ago. Those numbers would appear to be indicating higher total losses, as while Russia has to put senior staff in the field to get anything done, the figures within the oOB would not support a ratio of Jnr and Snr officers to enlisted/conscripted victims in the low numbers that are being indicated otherwise. Lada sales may give a better indication. In the background, the reports out of the groups of the LNR and DNR that had their "volunteers" going and and not coming back, they have had devastating losses, reported weeks ago by Perun on the manpower matters of both sides. The data that Perun derived was solely from Russian statements, and it was surprisingly close to the Ukrainian estimates, which supports the higher losses, however, Russia being Russia, while the fatalities were remarkably high, the provision of medical aid was being complained about by the LNR & DNR, complaining over equipment, support, lack of body armour and basic necessities. Russian losses may have a much more reasonable fatality to casualty ratio than the LNR, DNR teams. Same now for the Chechens and the Wagner groups. All parties have their politics in play, high numbers cause misgivings to general public if they are not invested the conflict.
Far too many on all sides for one mans ego/psychosis.
The same report gave the tel mission capable MBTs at around 3500, with just under 2000 out of action through the war to date. The total fleet that existed on the OOB was more than 2 times that, but much of the reserve is beyond repair. Per
Krivosheev, (1997) Russia lost some 3/4 of their MBTs in round 2, and that really covered the period from 1942 through to the end, in the opening rounds, the USSR had little in the way of heavy tanks, and got hammered as a consequence. With the fielding of the T-34 and KV things improved, from a loss ratio of 7:1 to 1.4:1. The intensity of this conflict is up there, well above the loss rates in most modern regional conflicts, but below the WW's & Korea.
Krivosheev, G. I. (1997). Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses. Greenhill.
The other "Non War"
