PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is Ukraine about to have a war?
View Single Post
Old 28th Aug 2022, 12:37
  #8560 (permalink)  
fdr
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: 3rd Rock, #29B
Posts: 2,956
Received 861 Likes on 257 Posts
Originally Posted by Beamr
Where'd you get that number? Or are we making assumptions based on Russkies worst case scenario?
.
that would be 1000 troops KIA/MIA/WIA every day from day one.
The 186K was a recent breakdown ex the UK MOD IIRC, that included 200, 300 and POW's there were 1000 POW still on the books apparently. It was worth a double take, as the figure on the injuries is much higher than my expectation on the historical rates, amended for the lethality and relative lack of dust-off capability in the field.

The Ukrainian sourced numbers may have inflation for public confidence, but the figures through to the first 90 days or so correlated fairly well with the fatalities that would have been expected from the armor and vehicle losses. What then came to light was that the IFV's were decidely undermanned with troops, and that would have given a lower loss of fatalities and injuries per vehicle. The reports from inside Russia indicate wholesale unit losses that are devastating. If the number of current fatalities is correct as recorded by the Ukrainians, then the 180K ineffective is going to be a realistic number. If they are out by 50%, then the latest figures from the US DOD that has been upgraded to 80K ineffective's is closer to the value. The current losses are extraordinary at any end of that spectrum. A lot of Ladas.

The Zombiez are rapidly approaching 50K body bags/envelopes/DNA samples, so the historical KIA/WIA would be close to that amount. The number of destroyed IFVs/MBTs and other vehicles etc with fairly high lethality weapons would suggest a lower ratio, others have suggested higher. Any way you count the figures, it is not a happy situation, and those are presumably a lot of pro-Putin votes going up in smoke with the turrets. Lada's will only gain so much leverage, until the first time it breaks down. the other figures given for materiel losses were remarkable when compared to the forces arranged on the line at Z-hour; they have depleted their initial equipment more or less, and are running on the reserves, that were depleted to a large extent by the commitment to the Special Demolition Derby.

Last edited by fdr; 28th Aug 2022 at 13:02.
fdr is offline