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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 4th Sep 2022, 21:49
  #8781 (permalink)  
 
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A view from the ferry, date unknown.

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Old 4th Sep 2022, 23:56
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Latest I have read is Putin is offering recruits land in Crimea to join up. I cannot see them giving up on Crimea nor Mariupol, too many lives were lost defending that to simply walk away. You don’t walk away when you corner a rabid dog, you kill it.

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Last edited by NutLoose; 5th Sep 2022 at 00:12.
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Old 4th Sep 2022, 23:58
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From the New York Times today:
As Russian forces fire precision-guided weapons at military and civilian targets in Ukraine, officers in Ukraine’s security service working with private analysts have collected parts of the crashed missiles to unravel their enemy’s secrets.

The weapons are top of the line in the Russian arsenal. But they contained fairly low-tech components, analysts who examined them said, including a unique but basic satellite navigation system that was also found in other captured munitions.

Those findings are detailed in new report issued Saturday by Conflict Armament Research, an independent group based in Britain that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars around the world. The research team examined the Russian matériel in July at the invitation of the Ukrainian government.
The report undercuts Moscow’s narrative of having a domestically rebuilt military that again rivals that of its Western adversaries.
But it also shows that the weapons Russia is using to destroy Ukrainian towns and cities are often powered by Western innovation, despite sanctions imposed against Russia after it invaded Crimea in 2014. Those restrictions were intended to stop the shipment of high-tech items that could help Russia’s military abilities.

“We saw that Russia reuses the same electronic components across multiple weapons, including their newest cruise missiles and attack helicopters, and we didn’t expect to see that,” said Damien Spleeters, an investigator for the group who contributed to the report. “Russian guided weapons are full of non-Russian technology and components, and most of the computer chips we documented were made by Western countries after 2014.”
How Russia obtained these parts is unclear. Mr. Spleeters is asking the manufacturers of the semiconductors how their goods ended up in Russian weapons, whether through legitimate transactions or straw-man purchases set up to skirt the sanctions.

The investigators analyzed the remains of three types of Russian cruise missiles — including Moscow’s newest and most advanced model, the Kh-101 — and its newest guided rocket, the Tornado-S. All of them contained identical components marked SN-99 that on close inspection, the team said, proved to be satellite navigation receivers that are critical for the missiles’ operation.

Mr. Spleeters said that Russia’s use of the same components pointed to bottlenecks in its supply chain and that restricting the supply of SN-99 components would slow Moscow’s ability to replenish its diminishing stockpile of guided weapons.
New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/us/politics/russia-missiles-ukraine.html

Conflict Armament Research link:
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...c78f5c5248bf3d

Last edited by Winemaker; 5th Sep 2022 at 00:19.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 01:17
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The Ukraine war has revealed many serious weaknesses in Russian warfighting equipment. The staggering loss of tanks and armor, the failure of the Russian air force to enforce air superiority over a comparatively tiny Ukrainian adversary and the sinking of the Moskva flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet illustrate the Russian military’s many war failures.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/is-rus...y-mainly-junk/

Guess it's a legit question to be asked...would seem it to be relegated to 3rd world buyers...
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 01:47
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 06:56
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If true, the SAM staff has been sleeping. Or drunk. Or AWOL. Or the kit was just U/S.

#Ukraine: We can reveal yet more Russian targets hit by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drones in recent days in #Kherson Oblast; what appears to be two 9A331 TLAR from the 9K331 Tor-M1 SAM system, as well as an unknown transport vehicle attempting to hide under foliage.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 08:34
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DIY drone towed radar decoy….

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Old 5th Sep 2022, 10:15
  #8788 (permalink)  
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Ukraine’s hackers registered a number of fake women's accounts on social networks, tricked 🇷🇺 soldiers into sending photos that they geolocated, and shared with the 🇺🇦 military. A few days later, identified 🇷🇺 base near occupied Melitopol was blown up by Ukrainian artillery.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 10:36
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Ukraine’s hackers registered a number of fake women's accounts on social networks, tricked 🇷🇺 soldiers into sending photos that they geolocated, and shared with the 🇺🇦 military. A few days later, identified 🇷🇺 base near occupied Melitopol was blown up by Ukrainian artillery.
As mentioned by some in that Twit post, why announce this clever ploy to the world? For that reason I will consider it FAKE!
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 10:58
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Warning good old Aviation content.

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Old 5th Sep 2022, 11:43
  #8791 (permalink)  
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I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked…..

MOSCOW, Sept 5 (Reuters) - A Russian-installed official in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Monday that plans for a referendum on joining Russia had been "paused" due to the security situation, Russian state-owned news agency TASS reported.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 12:03
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Interesting comparison, as in 2022 Russia has not achieved the bombing accuracy of the US of the 90s.

"Results of a USAF precision attack on a Serbian airbase in 1999 vs a Russian attack in February 2022 on the Ukrainian Air Force's Ozerne Air Base, home of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade equipped with Su-27s"

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Old 5th Sep 2022, 12:12
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More aviation content...sorry



The bad guys


Some of their latest losses?




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Old 5th Sep 2022, 12:43
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Interesting comparison, as in 2022 Russia has not achieved the bombing accuracy of the US of the 90s.


"Results of a USAF precision attack on a Serbian airbase in 1999 vs a Russian attack in February 2022 on the Ukrainian Air Force's Ozerne Air Base, home of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade equipped with Su-27s"

Not sure that a GBU-31 dropped from a few miles away is a fair comparison with an SS-26 strike from across the border. Maybe comparison with ATACMS would be more useful.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 13:07
  #8795 (permalink)  

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Reddit reports Aeroflot commercial service from Moscow to Sochi takes a direct routing over Donbas and Luhansk regions, quite a stunt.

For what reason?
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 13:57
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
Reddit reports Aeroflot commercial service from Moscow to Sochi takes a direct routing over Donbas and Luhansk regions, quite a stunt.

For what reason?
You're right, there's one doing it now. It's almost as if they thought that whoever shot down MH17 wouldn't take a pop at an Aeroflot flight...
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 14:09
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The cynic in me thinks that, in view of the Russian leadership's attitude to Russian lives, they want Ukraine to shoot down one of their civilian aircraft so that they (Russia) can cry foul and drive world opinion against Ukraine. I hope the UAF won't fall for that.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 14:09
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Originally Posted by pasta
You're right, there's one doing it now. It's almost as if they thought that whoever shot down MH17 wouldn't take a pop at an Aeroflot flight...
They clearly feel quite safe, which is curious given that they said it was the Ukrainian Air Force that shot down MH17.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 16:12
  #8799 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by FUMR
The cynic in me thinks .
​​​​​​... ​​​​​
... much uglier than having UKR take a shot at it and then cry foul.
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Old 5th Sep 2022, 16:30
  #8800 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent
... much uglier than having UKR take a shot at it and then cry foul.
I most certainly would not buy a ticket on that flight .................. and who on earth would insure it?
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