Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
New Congressional Research Service report on “Ukrainian Military Performance and Outlook.”
Examines the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, its performance thus far, analysis of U.S. and Western security assistance, and outlook for the war.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150
Examines the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, its performance thus far, analysis of U.S. and Western security assistance, and outlook for the war.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150
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lt does show up another government flaw, the rapid shutting down and flogging off airfields instead of the old system of putting them in care and maintenance, thus when we require a possible large influx of AirPower as may be the case now, we end up having this debate as to where we can put them. It also would help with dispersal, God forbid anyone dropping a missile at Brize on the runway.
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Last edited by NutLoose; 30th Jun 2022 at 10:59.
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Reports that Snake island has been retaken by UaF
I checked a couple of the telegram channels , which are indeed russian and they say the RuAF withdrew.
Eg "After the French self-propelled guns CAESAR and Tochka-U OTRK were transferred to the Odessa region, the density of artillery fire from the Odessa region increased several times.
Two days ago, we described in detail the tactics (https://t.me/rybar/34554) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to deplete the air defense of the RF Armed Forces on the island.
Well, the tactic works. Today, physically controlling the island is tantamount to suicide.
The next stage of the battle for Snake Island is the destruction of the naval and airborne assault forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts in the best traditions of the principle “so don’t get you to anyone.” "
I checked a couple of the telegram channels , which are indeed russian and they say the RuAF withdrew.
Eg "After the French self-propelled guns CAESAR and Tochka-U OTRK were transferred to the Odessa region, the density of artillery fire from the Odessa region increased several times.
Two days ago, we described in detail the tactics (https://t.me/rybar/34554) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to deplete the air defense of the RF Armed Forces on the island.
Well, the tactic works. Today, physically controlling the island is tantamount to suicide.
The next stage of the battle for Snake Island is the destruction of the naval and airborne assault forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts in the best traditions of the principle “so don’t get you to anyone.” "
Last edited by rattman; 30th Jun 2022 at 10:08.
Lonnnggg Ago
Warning: most definitely military aviation content!!
Many years ago Leeming hosted a St. Louis Missouri ANG F4 Sqn at their FOB. Neither the CO of the Sqn, or the Leeming Staish were amused when one F4 did a low fly past and then went into ‘burner and opened the air brakes thereby releasing dozens of toilet rolls with the expected result. IIRC the Sqn aircrew were tasked in cleaning up whatever was left of the subsequent mess.
I overheard that near the end of their detachment the visitors were somewhat bemused when, after a lengthy wait for the expected arrival of the AEW aircraft that had been providing them with “trade”, during their detachment, one of 8 Sqns finest eventually roared into view! (In later years I was lucky enough to have been posted to Lossiemouth and had several flights in said Shacks. On one memorable trip to Gib, I am proud to report that I managed to negotiate the double main spar with a tray of 22 cardboard cups of orange juice without spilling a drop!)
Many years ago Leeming hosted a St. Louis Missouri ANG F4 Sqn at their FOB. Neither the CO of the Sqn, or the Leeming Staish were amused when one F4 did a low fly past and then went into ‘burner and opened the air brakes thereby releasing dozens of toilet rolls with the expected result. IIRC the Sqn aircrew were tasked in cleaning up whatever was left of the subsequent mess.
I overheard that near the end of their detachment the visitors were somewhat bemused when, after a lengthy wait for the expected arrival of the AEW aircraft that had been providing them with “trade”, during their detachment, one of 8 Sqns finest eventually roared into view! (In later years I was lucky enough to have been posted to Lossiemouth and had several flights in said Shacks. On one memorable trip to Gib, I am proud to report that I managed to negotiate the double main spar with a tray of 22 cardboard cups of orange juice without spilling a drop!)
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I wonder why they left... Ohh yes, this may be why.............. Goodwill? utter ballcocks.
Do you need to put anyone on it with the problems of resupply etc that will bring?, it is again Ukrainian territory, and you have it covered preventing Russian ships or people attempting to reoccupy it.
Extra view from above
Do you need to put anyone on it with the problems of resupply etc that will bring?, it is again Ukrainian territory, and you have it covered preventing Russian ships or people attempting to reoccupy it.
Extra view from above
Last edited by NutLoose; 30th Jun 2022 at 13:46.
I'm surprised about the retreat from Snake island: I would have expected Putin to be like Hitler and order "No retreat". Is Ukraine likely to re-occupy the island, or is it simply too exposed to rocket/cruise-missile attack?
“They can take it but they can’t hold it.”
A mini lesson for someone?
A mini lesson for someone?
lit does show up another government flaw, the rapid shutting down and flogging off airfields instead of the old system of putting them in care and maintenance, thus when we require a possible large influx of AirPower as may be the case now, we end up having this debate as to where we can put them.
If the US projections are correct NATO is either going to have no choice to get invovled or just sit back and watch a massacre in Ukraine and then watch it rock up on a NATO doorstep.
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That has been just one of the short sighted decisions. Cuts (principally Cameron/Osborne era) have hit all our infrastructure & now Johnson wants to renege on the defence spending manifesto pledge. If this is not the moment to spend more, then what is?
If the US projections are correct NATO is either going to have no choice to get invovled or just sit back and watch a massacre in Ukraine and then watch it rock up on a NATO doorstep.
If the US projections are correct NATO is either going to have no choice to get invovled or just sit back and watch a massacre in Ukraine and then watch it rock up on a NATO doorstep.
It also would help with dispersal, God forbid anyone dropping a missile at Brize on the runway.
It must be a serious distraction having your people there being continuously whacked, and for what?
Ukraine has apparently mined the seas between it and Odessa pretty comprehensively so commercial shipping is unlikely to risk the journey, and if Russia has got it's Kilos into running order then a submarine picket just makes sure of the continued blockade. They've also got the Kitchens dusted off and can fire them from huge standoff distances at any errant shipping in the area. I'd say they've still got the area pretty well covered.
I'm not sure that Russia needs the effort to keep Snake Island.
Ukraine has apparently mined the seas between it and Odessa pretty comprehensively so commercial shipping is unlikely to risk the journey, and if Russia has got it's Kilos into running order then a submarine picket just makes sure of the continued blockade. They've also got the Kitchens dusted off and can fire them from huge standoff distances at any errant shipping in the area. I'd say they've still got the area pretty well covered.
I'm not sure that Russia needs the effort to keep Snake Island.
Probably going to go put a flag up and leave again. It is closer to the oil rigs so you could threaten them with ASMs, but while its less of an issue for ukraine because russian tube arty cant reach it. Maybe they might try and draw the russian airforce/navy out
Anyone know how long it would take to make an inflatable shorad of some description
I think that if you want to look at the precedents set in the Persian Gulf, 1980 to 1988, as to status of neutral shipping you might be on the right track.
The Russian attempt to establish a FOB on Snake Island, and the inability of the Russians to get their Air Defense assets set up in a survivable mode, offers an air corridor for patrolling and monitoring of that area. The establishment of a successful Russian Air Defense node there would have precluded that.
Not sure how much help that is for a merchant ship trying to move grain, but the AD node not being there (and the Moskva being gone) offers a bit more chance air cover - useful in trying to spot submarines. The Russian Kilo submarines have been mentioned in relation to the shipping traffic in some articles I've seen.
Covert Shores has a decent analysis of this change in the state of play.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 30th Jun 2022 at 22:17.
Large exchange of prisoners , let’s hope for more goodwill gestures and some peace .
Peace cannot be beyond the grasp of those who desire peace . Now that both sides are nearing political consensus that using artillery against civilians is barbaric and must be stopped . The path to peace is almost invisible in the fog of war , but path to peace is still there . We should not have to wait until the last man is standing to find a peaceful solution .
Peace cannot be beyond the grasp of those who desire peace . Now that both sides are nearing political consensus that using artillery against civilians is barbaric and must be stopped . The path to peace is almost invisible in the fog of war , but path to peace is still there . We should not have to wait until the last man is standing to find a peaceful solution .
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Quite a lot I read were from Mariupol and severely wounded, so it makes sense as they must be struggling as it is with their own wounded.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...er-swap-of-war
The majority of the Ukrainian prisoners were badly wounded, suffering from gunshot and shrapnel wounds, blast traumas, burns, fractured bones and amputated limbs, the agency known by the acronym GUR said in a statement on Telegram on Wednesday.
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Kremlin to decide ‘at the necessary time’ whether Putin will attend G20 summit
The Kremlin says Putin has not yet decided whether to attend November’s G20 summit in Indonesia.In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had an invitation to attend the event and would decide “at the necessary time” whether Putin will go in person.
WTF are they even contemplating letting him travel outside Russia. I couldn’t give a shit about diplomatic immunity, would you let Hitler travel.
