Is Ukraine about to have a war?
A quick summary 300,000 dead caused by trying to attack a swampy salient surrounded on 3 sides by defenders on higher ground. Did not work out well. Common sense did not prevail. Canada alone suffered 15000 casualties in the battle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Passchendaele
It would be wise for Ukraine to not get caught in a salient.
The fate of Nazi forces in the WW2 Battle of the Bulge would also be applicable.
Just my opinion.
It would be wise for Ukraine to not get caught in a salient.
The fate of Nazi forces in the WW2 Battle of the Bulge would also be applicable.
Just my opinion.
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The pundits all say that there are only two roads out of Bakhmut, but that isn't exactly true. If you zoom in with Google Earth you can see smaller roads that would allow retreating infantry to bypass choke-points. Ukraine has nothing but infantry to extract and they can fight all the way out. I think they can hold out quite a bit longer. Keep in mind that after they abandon the east bank of the Bakhmut river, their lines will shorten; they will have the river as a barrier and they will leave a sea of claymore mines behind them.
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Blowing the bridges, it still looks it might be relatively easy to bridge again at lease for washing troops.. As it appears to have only dropped off one end.
Last edited by NutLoose; 3rd Mar 2023 at 23:38.
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More Spartans delivered, they really seem to like them. FV432’s in the mix as well.
https://twitter.com/search?q=Fv432&src=typed_query
..
With the funds of people and businesses who donated to the Spartans, our foundation purchased and is delivering to Ukraine a historically record batch of armored vehicles that do not enter through the line of intergovernmental communication! 101 armored personnel carriers. The first batch of 24 has already been handed over to the military. So we will record: 24/101
We purchased 101 armored tracked vehicles of 8 types: FV103 Spartan; Samaritan; Sultan; Stormer; Shielder; Samson; FV432; FV434. Used by the British Army, now out of service. Upon arrival we pass vehicles to the Ground Forces Command of the Armed Forces of UA for distribution.
https://twitter.com/search?q=Fv432&src=typed_query
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 4th Mar 2023 at 02:17.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
First time I’ve seen a clear Ukrainian claim on this. Oleksii Danilov says Ukrainians believe the Russians are losing 7 soldiers for each Ukrainian lost in the Bakhmut fighting. That would be extreme, and explains why the Ukr have drawn things out—if true.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...our-favor.html
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...our-favor.html
It's all very nice to see these 7 to 1 losses, and the footage of RU tanks etc, being blown up and UKR drones blowing up things.
At the end of the day, RU (or Wagner), have done the GRIND into Bakhmut - and won!
I hope that UKR was prolonging this as way to distract the RU forces.
I really hope that UKR goes and gets Crimea. Latest news I see is RU building new trench lines in Crimea.
Wouldn't it be amazing if UKR did a sea (I know, I know), landing in Crimea (methinks a D Day sort of thing), and rolled in with hundreds of tanks. Take out the bridge and go for it!!
Even Putin could not explain nor get away with that loss...!
At the end of the day, RU (or Wagner), have done the GRIND into Bakhmut - and won!
I hope that UKR was prolonging this as way to distract the RU forces.
I really hope that UKR goes and gets Crimea. Latest news I see is RU building new trench lines in Crimea.
Wouldn't it be amazing if UKR did a sea (I know, I know), landing in Crimea (methinks a D Day sort of thing), and rolled in with hundreds of tanks. Take out the bridge and go for it!!
Even Putin could not explain nor get away with that loss...!
It's obvious what's been going on. Ukraine wants to keep it up as long as they can. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the Ukrainian intelligence that has been leaking stories about a withdrawal - hoping to bait the Russians into making more human wave attacks.
BTW
The Georgia Foundation has compiled a graphic record of known Russian fortifications, (trench lines & gun emplacements) which are meant to prevent a Ukrainian offensive to the south.
You can see the locations of the fortifications here: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...5606902945&z=9.
Or better yet download the KML file and display it in Google Earth along with their depiction of the current front lines: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...881530772&z=13.
I have also created KML maps of the railroad system along with relevant towns, cities, rivers and in some cases (Molochna River) all the river crossing points. Google provides the road system and superimposes it all on a satellite photo of Ukraine. If the view gets too cluttered, any of the above can be turned off.
My only wish is for Google to provide a new satellite photo background monthly. But I guess that isn't going to happen.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Wouldn't it be amazing if UKR did a sea (I know, I know), landing in Crimea
Ukraine is fighting our fight, and bleeding on our behalf, against a criminal with delusions of empire, or a means to retain his ill gotten gains.
PS: hope that the movement places the RU supply lines in an over extended position, and their flanks are taken advantage of.
Last edited by fdr; 4th Mar 2023 at 08:12. Reason: PS
This is more about Putin selling progress to the Russian domestic audience and will be used to justify continued stewardship at the upcoming presidential election next year. Wait for the televised champagne receptions and victory parades whilst the dead lay scattered across the battlefields in their thousands.
Meanwhile, Putin has moved his drinks cabinet six inches closer to Kyiv.
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It's not impossible that Ukraine has been making landing craft on the Bug River in places like Mikolayiv, which looks like a giant machine shop to my eyes. If they could make a run from the tip of the peninsula to somewhere near Kherson, they could throw up a bridge and then another. The advantage of an offensive like this would be that once it got going, the flanks would be secure and the Russian supply lines would be long.
Just an idea.
That's been a favorite idea of mine for months, only it wouldn't be Crimea, it would be on the Kinburn peninsula.
It's not impossible that Ukraine has been making landing craft on the Bug River in places like Mikolayiv, which looks like a giant machine shop to my eyes. If they could make a run from the tip of the peninsula to somewhere near Kherson, they could throw up a bridge and then another. The advantage of an offensive like this would be that once it got going, the flanks would be secure and the Russian supply lines would be long.
Just an idea.
It's not impossible that Ukraine has been making landing craft on the Bug River in places like Mikolayiv, which looks like a giant machine shop to my eyes. If they could make a run from the tip of the peninsula to somewhere near Kherson, they could throw up a bridge and then another. The advantage of an offensive like this would be that once it got going, the flanks would be secure and the Russian supply lines would be long.
Just an idea.
So you are suggesting the next counter offensive should start with crossing a river and estuary then driving along a 40km long spit that is 4km wide at its narrowest, through sand dunes and sparsely populated area, with no major objective targets to find a back door into Crimea, while within range of Russian Artillery from 2-3 sides and full air cover...hmmm gets my vote.
(You know the many of the people who write the articles some people quote here are written by people with no real military experience and can be considered as click bait).
If you want to counter Russian tactics with Russian tactics, then go ahead and lengthen the war and cause more loses.
This war will be won by All Arms Manoeuvre tactics, not some Operation Market Garden gamble.
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All possible scenarios should be set out here with reasons given. The more alternatives the better, IMHO.
Need to keep one lot guessing before Special Operation 'Overlord' commences, and all that, eh what?
Now, I have a cunning plan...
Need to keep one lot guessing before Special Operation 'Overlord' commences, and all that, eh what?
Now, I have a cunning plan...
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Eh?
So you are suggesting the next counter offensive should start with crossing a river and estuary then driving along a 40km long spit that is 4km wide at its narrowest, through sand dunes and sparsely populated area, with no major objective targets to find a back door into Crimea, while within range of Russian Artillery from 2-3 sides and full air cover...hmmm gets my vote.
(You know the many of the people who write the articles some people quote here are written by people with no real military experience and can be considered as click bait).
If you want to counter Russian tactics with Russian tactics, then go ahead and lengthen the war and cause more loses.
This war will be won by All Arms Manoeuvre tactics, not some Operation Market Garden gamble.
So you are suggesting the next counter offensive should start with crossing a river and estuary then driving along a 40km long spit that is 4km wide at its narrowest, through sand dunes and sparsely populated area, with no major objective targets to find a back door into Crimea, while within range of Russian Artillery from 2-3 sides and full air cover...hmmm gets my vote.
(You know the many of the people who write the articles some people quote here are written by people with no real military experience and can be considered as click bait).
If you want to counter Russian tactics with Russian tactics, then go ahead and lengthen the war and cause more loses.
This war will be won by All Arms Manoeuvre tactics, not some Operation Market Garden gamble.
Your knowledge of the terrain on the Kinburn is lacking. There are roads and towns almost all the way to the tip, in fact the road does go to the tip.
If such a thing were done, it would be a race to the Kherson area where a span could allow heavy armor to join the fray. And the invasion force would have artillery cover all the way - from the mainland.
The idea can't be too crazy, the Russians have constructed fortifications out on the peninsula.
There are not many Orcs in the southern wilderness, that's all swamp, that could be mostly ignored.
And as jolihokistix suggests, making a feint of this sort of operation could draw off Russian resources.
Ukraine should be building those landing craft anyway, or at least making a show of it.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Rheinmetall is negotiating the construction of a tank factory on Ukrainian soil. "Plant can be set up in Ukraine for around 200 million euros." company boss Armin Papperger. Potentially it will be able to produce up to 400 Panther-type tanks annually.- Spiegel
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/un...1-d0b526c05719
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/un...1-d0b526c05719
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
For the first time in history, the people bought 101 APCs for their Military. This is about Ukrainians!🇺🇦
The biggest ever batch of tracked armored vehicles supplied not on the state level but by the people. Thank you all who donated from Ukraine and abroad! First 24/101 here.
We purchased 101 armored tracked vehicles of 8 types: FV103 Spartan; Samaritan; Sultan; Stormer; Shielder; Samson; FV432; FV434. Used by the British Army, now out of service.
Upon arrival we pass vehicles to the Ground Forces Command of the Armed Forces of UA for distribution.
The biggest ever batch of tracked armored vehicles supplied not on the state level but by the people. Thank you all who donated from Ukraine and abroad! First 24/101 here.
We purchased 101 armored tracked vehicles of 8 types: FV103 Spartan; Samaritan; Sultan; Stormer; Shielder; Samson; FV432; FV434. Used by the British Army, now out of service.
Upon arrival we pass vehicles to the Ground Forces Command of the Armed Forces of UA for distribution.
When I first came to this particular forum it was because I learnt more about what was happening in the war than I did on the BBC and other media. Now it seems to be the opposite. The forum has deteriorated into debates concerning tactics (some of them only good for comic books) by armchair generals! Can we perhaps try and get back to what is actually happening?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
This thread will focus on 3 large military vehicle production plants in Russia:
The first plant we will discuss is Omsktransmash which is part of the state-owned Uralvagonzavod Group. This sanctioned engineering company is based in Omsk.….
In conclusion -> yes, Russia might still be producing some modern MBTs but the main models we see coming in and out of these factories are T-62s and some BMPs.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...448694272.html
The first plant we will discuss is Omsktransmash which is part of the state-owned Uralvagonzavod Group. This sanctioned engineering company is based in Omsk.….
In conclusion -> yes, Russia might still be producing some modern MBTs but the main models we see coming in and out of these factories are T-62s and some BMPs.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...448694272.html