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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 1st May 2022, 23:40
  #4981 (permalink)  
 
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It would appear another bad day in Russia..


Plus another military establishment in Belgorod caught fire and a rail bridge in Kursk succumbed to gravity.

Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd May 2022 at 00:38.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 00:08
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Time to wax the surfboard?

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Old 2nd May 2022, 00:13
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They always fail to mention our nuclear deterrent would leave quite a few of them with that “Ready Brek” glow in response.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 00:15
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The Irish Times story was from 2003...
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Old 2nd May 2022, 00:30
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
They always fail to mention our nuclear deterrent would leave quite a few of them with that “Ready Brek” glow in response.
Might we have two at sea? I could be happy with overkill.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 00:43
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Mike...

Oops I searched from a report today about it and missed the date, sorry
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Old 2nd May 2022, 00:59
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The figure of 1.5 or 2 thousand Russian troops in Transnistria will have been augmented by several thousand local conscripts I read somewhere just recently. If I happen to run across the source report again I will post it here, but just treat this as conjecture in the meantime.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 02:41
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The Russians seem to have some serious OH&S issues.
  1. Their General's are not making it to retirement age, [age discrimination?]
  2. Their ships catch fire through bad wiring and they then douse the fire using the sink system [fire code violations]
  3. The T-72 turret toss is banned from the summer Olympics [unsafe workplace]
  4. The conscripts have started shooting at the REMF Checnel force who are there to shoot any conscript who terminates his contract [harassment in the workplace]
Forget about weak bridges, and self-immolating oil tanks, they really seem to have some issues going on. Their luck would improve if they were sitting in Russia I suspect.
They have to be getting a little curious about their bad luck by now. Seems that there is a bit of a 5th column within the Red forces that don't like generals, command posts or the whole deal of being in Ukraine. Just as well it isn't a war.

All wars are about resources at the base level, cloaked in hyperbole about religion or injustice, but underneath, it's all about grand theft. (even the football war of '69).
In Ukraine, the pillaging is state sponsored, which is amazing. John Deere is going to have a lot of opportunity to sue Putin for his theft of gear and removal over state lines. Hopefully there is a USFC jurisdictional matter that arises from that, so that 18 USC can apply.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 02:49
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factory that supplies the russian miitary antibiotics exploded https://tpyxa.net/2022/04/29/an-expl...ant-in-kurgan/

oil storage facility and moscow 'caught fire' [url=https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1520859285072265216]
[/ame]
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Old 2nd May 2022, 08:16
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The Russians only have about 2K troops in Transnistria, poorly trained and equipped, doubtless zeroed in by UKR if they take a step over the border.

And of course Moldova will be in their six waiting to reclaim hire territory if they get obliterated to the East…
Thank ORAC - its a largely unproven shale gas play that hasn't had much coverage outside Ukraine - eg I don't think its's ever been mentioned in the American Assoc Petroleum Geologists lists of big potential fields. Anyway investment would have to be enormous with hundreds of wells.

The RAND study says:-Ukraine does indeed control Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas, almost 80 percent of which are located east of the Dnipro River. However, these reserves amount to less than 3 percent of Russia's total natural gas reserves (PDF). And though Ukraine theoretically might have considerable shale gas reserves, they remain largely unproven, and Russia currently has no experience or technology for shale gas production. For shale oil production, Russia has historically relied on Western technology. However, this reliance has been seriously impeded since 2017, when the United States introduced sanctions to ban American companies from providing shale oil extraction technologies to Russia. If Russia grabbed Ukraine's gas reserves, the same sanctions would almost certainly be imposed on shale gas production technologies.

Still, let's—for the sake of Stephens' argument—assume that Russia desperately wants Ukraine's gas reserves. Even in this case, the emerging operations plan does not support the supposed goal. The majority of gas reserves east of the Dnipro River are located in Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts, in the central-east part of the country. The reserves start approximately 30 to 40 miles south of Kharkiv, pass through Poltava, and stretch in a northwest direction, towards Romny in Sumy Oblast. There are no significant natural gas reserves in Kyiv or Chernihiv Oblasts; Lugansk Oblasts hosts only one percent of them, and Doneck Oblast has only shale gas. Consequently, if the goal of the invasion was the gas, the majority of Russian troops would have been accumulated on the Sumy-Kharkiv line to advance in the direction of Poltava. Instead, the initial main axes of advance have focused on Kyiv and the southeastern part of the country, while Sumy and Kharkiv have seemed to play a secondary role. There is not even much justification for the march out of Crimea, along the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas, as they host only four percent of Ukraine's natural gas reserves—mostly offshore, and some 300 miles from the reserves in Poltava Oblasts.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 09:33
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Black Sea fleet lost another couple of tubs to Ukraine (patrol boats killed by TB 2's).

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Old 2nd May 2022, 09:38
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Usual caveats apply.

If correct, would it not be expected that the Russians will have detected these being moved to the area (rail?). If so, why no attempts to take them out?

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Old 2nd May 2022, 10:51
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They have been using Iskander etc to take out railway tracks etc, but they’re largely impervious to blast and easily repaired.

They don’t have any smart missiles able to track and hit moving targets - and I’d assume even moving at around 50km they’d reach their destination inside the Russian OODA loop time cycle.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 11:45
  #4994 (permalink)  
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Assuming the Russians did try to launch a Tsunami Nuke at the UK how likely would it be for the sub to get into position undetected?
In the event the UK was wiped off the face of the earth what contingency does the UK military have for response? Presumably our Sub deterrent would not respond without command or does it have a `UK down` response ?
Hypothetical of course I'm not expecting to learn to swim any time soon.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 12:13
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Originally Posted by uxb99
Assuming the Russians did try to launch a Tsunami Nuke at the UK how likely would it be for the sub to get into position undetected?
I doubt that information will be in the public domain for a decade or few.

Originally Posted by uxb99
Presumably our Sub deterrent would not respond without command or does it have a `UK down` response ?
Whereas the answer to that one is on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_of_last_resort

For a very detailed and fascinating account of what submarines of all nations have been up to, as recently as a decade or so ago, you could do a lot worse than "The Silent Deep" by Hennessy and Jinks. That'll give you as good an indication as you're likely to get of current capabilities.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 12:22
  #4996 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Usual caveats apply.

If correct, would it not be expected that the Russians will have detected these being moved to the area (rail?). If so, why no attempts to take them out?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...241136128?s=20
Russia military capability is very limited.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 13:05
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In the cartoon where the UK gets wiped by a nuclear tsunami, it also wipes out Eire. I wonder if Dublin has an opinion?
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Old 2nd May 2022, 13:08
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Originally Posted by ROC man
In the cartoon where the UK gets wiped by a nuclear tsunami, it also wipes out Eire. I wonder if Dublin has an opinion?
I doubt Putin worries about collateral damage.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 13:17
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Won't happen. Ireland is very proud of its neutrality and will send a strong diplomatic protest at the very thought of such a happening. Intruding Russian aircraft will be attacked by Eire's fleet of Pilatus PC-9.
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Old 2nd May 2022, 14:18
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
Won't happen. Ireland is very proud of its neutrality and will send a strong diplomatic protest at the very thought of such a happening. Intruding Russian aircraft will be attacked by Eire's fleet of Pilatus PC-9.
We’re doing constant checks on magicseaweed.com so we can get to Lahinch in time for the wave. That’s about it I’m afraid.
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