Originally Posted by Climb150
(Post 11166925)
Which hospital ICU's are being over run?
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11166924)
Plus the rapidly filling ICUs, cancelled elective surgeries, exhausted health care workers and rising deaths.
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Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166931)
All of which was expected. Things happening faster with the new variant, could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble, |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11166934)
Yes. But you were implying restrictions should have been lifted earlier. That would have been a disaster.
Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble, FWIW, quotes from an article published yesterday: “Experts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season. Data from the NSW government’s 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from *influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.” Get a grip mate. Just 72 on ventilators Australia wide and 269 serious / critical. What I mean by blessing in disguise is that if Omicron rips through the entire population on the east coast very quickly, the infection numbers will fall very rapidly. Combine that with very high rates of vaccinations and the east coast will be in a good position. |
Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166942)
FWIW, quotes from an article published yesterday: “Experts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season. Data from the NSW government’s 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from *influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.” Get a grip mate. Just 72 on ventilators Australia wide and 269 serious / critical. What I mean by blessing in disguise is that if Omicron rips through the entire population on the east coast very quickly, the infection numbers will fall very rapidly. Combine that with very high rates of vaccinations and the east coast will be in a good position. 9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly. Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently? |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11166946)
Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently? |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11166946)
An article published where?
9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly. Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently? I get what you are saying regarding projecting the numbers forward and I agree on the conjecture but it’s a no deal from me - I don’t get off on winning arguments on social media, nor do I support the idea. I just wanna see the borders remain opened. |
Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166894)
What difference has it made? People are now able to enter most parts of Australia from abroad and from within. That means people can re-connect, freedom of movement is restored for citizens and it also means the recall of many pilots. It’s also meant job offers for me and most of the unemployed pilots I know. To me that’s a sign of the industry being ‘better off’.
Thank christ both federal and state governments don’t share your view and think that life will be better off with the borders closed. You’re on the wrong forum to be whinging about the borders being opened. I get how SOPS does because he is happier driving trains then flying planes. I’d take a guess that you are retired from this industry also? |
Originally Posted by Xeptu
(Post 11166963)
Not really what I meant. The decision to open up and let it rip has been made, well do that then. To be telling us we have to isolate if infected, get tested if you think you are, cancel events, work from home, etc etc, is "POINTLESS". It's everyone for themselves, our own individual decisions will determine what happens to our economy/recovery. right now all I'm seeing is closed, not available, delayed due to staff shortages. Surely this wasn't the plan. What will I be doing in the short term, not venturing very far from home, I'm sure I'm not alone.
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Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166970)
Good to hear it’s not what you meant, because it’s certainly not what you said…anyhow of course it wasn’t the plan, the plan was based on the Delta. Omicron threw a spanner in the works with its transmissibility.
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It was present when the border opened yes, but the plan to open and the modelling used to construct the plan was based on the Delta.
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Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166977)
It was present when the border opened yes, but the plan to open and the modelling used to construct the plan was based on the Delta.
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Originally Posted by Xeptu
(Post 11166980)
And I would say the plan to open was purely a political decision, any modelling was about what to expect as a consequence of that decision. I don't believe any of us expected that we would still be isolating, staying home, getting tested when we are not all that unwell, having our supply chains disrupted, staff shortages, cancelling anything. Opening up was supposed to end all that and so it should, at least from a government perspective. we the people will decide what happens from here as a consequence of our own individual decisions and actions. If the majority just get on with it, recovery, if on the other hand they stay home and isolate, recession. The current policy and directions are not helping recovery.
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Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166987)
Mate I agree with you there - you won’t find me going and getting tested voluntarily.
So the question is, is everybody else doing or plan to do anything any differently. |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11166946)
An article published where?
9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly. Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently? How many currently in use for Covid patients? 145 ICU beds and 40 Ventilators. Approx 387 ICU beds taken up with non Covid patients at any one time, so total ICU capacity not even 30% yet. And a good proportion of those were incidental, somewhere between 25-50%. If you're going to predict that ICU and ventilators will be very near capacity (90%+) by 29/01 then you'd better be hoping for a massive increase, as data from South Africa and Europe has shown the Omicron wave peaks in about a month, so should be on the downswing by late Jan. |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11166934)
Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble, The length stay in hospitals is also lower, from 8 down to 2.8 days on average. I don't know too much about the disease treatment but I imagine you can't be admitted to hospital for Covid, get sent to the ICU, get put on a ventilator, get taken off a ventilator, be monitored back to the ICU, then downgraded to general wards and then discharged all within 2 and a half days, so the severity of the illness and strain on hospitals is surely lower with Omicron. |
Originally Posted by dr dre
(Post 11167173)
You are making a huge logical fallacy in that statement. You are assuming that the rise in cases is matched by a exact rise in hospitalisation/ICU admission, whereas most acknowledge increased infectiousness but decreased severity with Omicron, up to 80% less severe. It's why South Africa suffered about 1/6th the hospitalisation of their Delta wave. I'd expect ICU admissions to level out much lower, and then we really don't know the breakdown of those admitted for Covid reasons and those admitted for other reasons who test positive for regular screening, and are counted in official numbers. They may be asymptomatic. You can hardly say Covid is overloading hospitals then. About 75% of those in ICU in NSW have Delta not Omicron, so what we are seeing is the end of the Delta wave in hospitals, not so the recent rise in cases. The increasing Omicron cases will not cause a similar rise in hospital admissions/ICU
The length stay in hospitals is also lower, from 8 down to 2.8 days on average. I don't know too much about the disease treatment but I imagine you can't be admitted to hospital for Covid, get sent to the ICU, get put on a ventilator, get taken off a ventilator, be monitored back to the ICU, then downgraded to general wards and then discharged all within 2 and a half days, so the severity of the illness and strain on hospitals is surely lower with Omicron. |
Originally Posted by dr dre
(Post 11167170)
How many ventilators and ICU beds in NSW? About 2000 each.
How many currently in use for Covid patients? 145 ICU beds and 40 Ventilators. Approx 387 ICU beds taken up with non Covid patients at any one time, so total ICU capacity not even 30% yet. And a good proportion of those were incidental, somewhere between 25-50%. If you're going to predict that ICU and ventilators will be very near capacity (90%+) by 29/01 then you'd better be hoping for a massive increase, as data from South Africa and Europe has shown the Omicron wave peaks in about a month, so should be on the downswing by late Jan. |
Originally Posted by Jester64
(Post 11166987)
Mate I agree with you there - you won’t find me going and getting tested voluntarily.
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 11167312)
And thus any pretence of a responsible individual vanishes...
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