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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Xeptu 7th Jan 2022 21:19


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166873)
Nothing speculative about the NSW border being open, which is what Iím referring to.

I agree with the border closed, you would never have known there was a pandemic - except for the fact that you canít enter the state.

You guys are unbelievable. The borders are open in most states and our industry can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but some are still not happy because their little state bubble has been disrupted. I say again - when a state opens their border and goes from covid 0 to living with covid, there will be a transition period with temporary restrictions put in place, but thank christ the border remains open for the sake of our industry.

The state borders opening is/was inevitable, That in my opinion is necessary. The issue now is what difference has it made and the answer to that question is undeniably worse as it continues so around the rest of the world as well. I don't share your optimism with respect to "temporary" nor do I believe our or anybody else's industry will be any better off, at least for the next couple of years.

Torukmacto 7th Jan 2022 21:34

Sister just diagnosed with omnicron, lives in NSW and is getting on with it , wants borders to remain open . Cousin got it last week , lives in vic and his job involves a lot of interstate travel and he wants nothing closed off . My mother in her mid 70ís 12 months from miraculously surviving stage 4 colon cancer ( immunotherapy) that spread to liver who has nothing to gain from opening borders wants country opened up . She could be excused for wanting borders closed as she a pensioner with some horrible experiences but brave enough to see what needs to happen to get country going plus the mental health issues lockdowns are causing . Omicron wonít take years to disappear . I got respect for these people .

Jester64 7th Jan 2022 21:50


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11166882)
The state borders opening is/was inevitable, That in my opinion is necessary. The issue now is what difference has it made and the answer to that question is undeniably worse as it continues so around the rest of the world as well. I don't share your optimism with respect to "temporary" nor do I believe our or anybody else's industry will be any better off, at least for the next couple of years.

What difference has it made? People are now able to enter most parts of Australia from abroad and from within. That means people can re-connect, freedom of movement is restored for citizens and it also means the recall of many pilots. Itís also meant job offers for me and most of the unemployed pilots I know. To me thatís a sign of the industry being Ďbetter offí.

Thank christ both federal and state governments donít share your view and think that life will be better off with the borders closed. Youíre on the wrong forum to be whinging about the borders being opened. I get how SOPS does because he is happier driving trains then flying planes. Iíd take a guess that you are retired from this industry also?



Wizofoz 7th Jan 2022 23:01


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166894)
What difference has it made? People are now able to enter most parts of Australia from abroad and from within.

Plus the rapidly filling ICUs, cancelled elective surgeries, exhausted health care workers and rising deaths.

Happy days!

Yes it was inevitable that borders re-open- but only now high vaccination rates are maing it JUST managable.

Climb150 7th Jan 2022 23:04


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166924)
Plus the rapidly filling ICUs, cancelled elective surgeries, exhausted health care workers and rising deaths.

Happy days!

Yes it was inevitable that borders re-open- but only now high vaccination rates are maing it JUST managable.

Which hospital ICU's are being over run?

Wizofoz 7th Jan 2022 23:06


Originally Posted by Climb150 (Post 11166925)
Which hospital ICU's are being over run?

Where did I say any were?

Jester64 7th Jan 2022 23:11


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166924)
Plus the rapidly filling ICUs, cancelled elective surgeries, exhausted health care workers and rising deaths.

All of which was expected. Things happening faster with the new variant, could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Wizofoz 7th Jan 2022 23:16


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166931)
All of which was expected. Things happening faster with the new variant, could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Yes. But you were implying restrictions should have been lifted earlier. That would have been a disaster.

Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble,

Jester64 7th Jan 2022 23:37


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166934)
Yes. But you were implying restrictions should have been lifted earlier. That would have been a disaster.

Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble,

You have me mistaken if you think that Iíve been implying that the borders should have reopened earlier.

FWIW, quotes from an article published yesterday: ďExperts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season.

Data from the NSW governmentís 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from *influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.Ē

Get a grip mate. Just 72 on ventilators Australia wide and 269 serious / critical.

What I mean by blessing in disguise is that if
Omicron rips through the entire population on the east coast very quickly, the infection numbers will fall very rapidly. Combine that with very high rates of vaccinations and the east coast will be in a good position.




Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 00:08


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166942)

FWIW, quotes from an article published yesterday: “Experts say Omicron will likely have more recorded cases but will place a similar strain on the system as the flu season.

Data from the NSW government’s 2017 epidemiology report showed that 9330 people were hospitalised from *influenza and a further 6539 were hospitalised with influenza as a secondary illness.”

Get a grip mate. Just 72 on ventilators Australia wide and 269 serious / critical.

What I mean by blessing in disguise is that if
Omicron rips through the entire population on the east coast very quickly, the infection numbers will fall very rapidly. Combine that with very high rates of vaccinations and the east coast will be in a good position.

An article published where?

9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly.

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?

Maggie Island 8th Jan 2022 00:13


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166946)

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?

I donít think Iíve ever been this picky on prune, but damn your deal would have so much more gumption if you could spell ventilator.:8

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 00:31


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166946)
An article published where?

9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly.

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?

Published in mainstream media, thatís why I prefixed with ĎFWIWí. The key data take from it is the numbers.

I get what you are saying regarding projecting the numbers forward and I agree on the conjecture but itís a no deal from me - I donít get off on winning arguments on social media, nor do I support the idea. I just wanna see the borders remain opened.

Xeptu 8th Jan 2022 01:38


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166894)
What difference has it made? People are now able to enter most parts of Australia from abroad and from within. That means people can re-connect, freedom of movement is restored for citizens and it also means the recall of many pilots. Itís also meant job offers for me and most of the unemployed pilots I know. To me thatís a sign of the industry being Ďbetter offí.

Thank christ both federal and state governments donít share your view and think that life will be better off with the borders closed. Youíre on the wrong forum to be whinging about the borders being opened. I get how SOPS does because he is happier driving trains then flying planes. Iíd take a guess that you are retired from this industry also?

Not really what I meant. The decision to open up and let it rip has been made, well do that then. To be telling us we have to isolate if infected, get tested if you think you are, cancel events, work from home, etc etc, is "POINTLESS". It's everyone for themselves, our own individual decisions will determine what happens to our economy/recovery. right now all I'm seeing is closed, not available, delayed due to staff shortages. Surely this wasn't the plan. What will I be doing in the short term, not venturing very far from home, I'm sure I'm not alone.

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 02:20


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11166963)
Not really what I meant. The decision to open up and let it rip has been made, well do that then. To be telling us we have to isolate if infected, get tested if you think you are, cancel events, work from home, etc etc, is "POINTLESS". It's everyone for themselves, our own individual decisions will determine what happens to our economy/recovery. right now all I'm seeing is closed, not available, delayed due to staff shortages. Surely this wasn't the plan. What will I be doing in the short term, not venturing very far from home, I'm sure I'm not alone.

Good to hear itís not what you meant, because itís certainly not what you saidÖanyhow of course it wasnít the plan, the plan was based on the Delta. Omicron threw a spanner in the works with its transmissibility.

Xeptu 8th Jan 2022 02:40


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166970)
Good to hear itís not what you meant, because itís certainly not what you saidÖanyhow of course it wasnít the plan, the plan was based on the Delta. Omicron threw a spanner in the works with its transmissibility.

I don't think what I said initially is of any significant difference. Omicron was present in Australia when our borders opened in SA as is the newest variant IHU, not yet detected in Australia. there will be plenty more yet. It is what it is. Unless the omega strain breaks out somewhere we don't even need to hear about it anymore.

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 02:55

It was present when the border opened yes, but the plan to open and the modelling used to construct the plan was based on the Delta.

Xeptu 8th Jan 2022 03:09


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166977)
It was present when the border opened yes, but the plan to open and the modelling used to construct the plan was based on the Delta.

And I would say the plan to open was purely a political decision, any modelling was about what to expect as a consequence of that decision. I don't believe any of us expected that we would still be isolating, staying home, getting tested when we are not all that unwell, having our supply chains disrupted, staff shortages, cancelling anything. Opening up was supposed to end all that and so it should, at least from a government perspective. we the people will decide what happens from here as a consequence of our own individual decisions and actions. If the majority just get on with it, recovery, if on the other hand they stay home and isolate, recession. The current policy and directions are not helping recovery.

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 03:32


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11166980)
And I would say the plan to open was purely a political decision, any modelling was about what to expect as a consequence of that decision. I don't believe any of us expected that we would still be isolating, staying home, getting tested when we are not all that unwell, having our supply chains disrupted, staff shortages, cancelling anything. Opening up was supposed to end all that and so it should, at least from a government perspective. we the people will decide what happens from here as a consequence of our own individual decisions and actions. If the majority just get on with it, recovery, if on the other hand they stay home and isolate, recession. The current policy and directions are not helping recovery.

Mate I agree with you there - you wonít find me going and getting tested voluntarily.

Xeptu 8th Jan 2022 03:49


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166987)
Mate I agree with you there - you wonít find me going and getting tested voluntarily.

And that's the question I'm asking really. Now that the borders are open and the virus is spreading like wildfire, I expect to be infected. I'm doing everything I can not to be. Until I know what the impact upon me personally is as a consequence of being infected, I don't intend doing much or going anywhere, even if that takes weeks, months, years. Once I am or have been infected I don't expect to have to comply with any pointless health directions.
So the question is, is everybody else doing or plan to do anything any differently.

dr dre 8th Jan 2022 13:26


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166946)
An article published where?

9330 cases FOR THE YEAR- NOT all at once. There are over 1700 hostpitilisations NOW and that will likely rise 10 fold in the comming weeks- likewise "just" 72 on ventilators- most of them would have been infected around 2 weeks ago- what's the percentage increase that 72 represents from a month ago? project that forwrd and we run out of ventilators- and that'sfor ANYONE who needs one- very quickly.

Anyway, we are both conjecturing- do you a deal. We will both post here on 29th of the month- I predict we will at or very near caoacity for ICUs and ventalators- you think differently?

How many ventilators and ICU beds in NSW? About 2000 each.

How many currently in use for Covid patients? 145 ICU beds and 40 Ventilators. Approx 387 ICU beds taken up with non Covid patients at any one time, so total ICU capacity not even 30% yet. And a good proportion of those were incidental, somewhere between 25-50%.

If you're going to predict that ICU and ventilators will be very near capacity (90%+) by 29/01 then you'd better be hoping for a massive increase, as data from South Africa and Europe has shown the Omicron wave peaks in about a month, so should be on the downswing by late Jan.


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