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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

dr dre 8th Jan 2022 13:38


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11166934)

Blessing? Infections are up 3000% on two weeks ago. ICU admissions are a two week lagging indicator. 3000% of current ICU admissions exceeds current capacity by about 50%. We are in trouble,

You are making a huge logical fallacy in that statement. You are assuming that the rise in cases is matched by a exact rise in hospitalisation/ICU admission, whereas most acknowledge increased infectiousness but decreased severity with Omicron, up to 80% less severe. It's why South Africa suffered about 1/6th the hospitalisation of their Delta wave. I'd expect ICU admissions to level out much lower, and then we really don't know the breakdown of those admitted for Covid reasons and those admitted for other reasons who test positive for regular screening, and are counted in official numbers. They may be asymptomatic. You can hardly say Covid is overloading hospitals then. About 75% of those in ICU in NSW have Delta not Omicron, so what we are seeing is the end of the Delta wave in hospitals, not so the recent rise in cases. The increasing Omicron cases will not cause a similar rise in hospital admissions/ICU

The length stay in hospitals is also lower, from 8 down to 2.8 days on average. I don't know too much about the disease treatment but I imagine you can't be admitted to hospital for Covid, get sent to the ICU, get put on a ventilator, get taken off a ventilator, be monitored back to the ICU, then downgraded to general wards and then discharged all within 2 and a half days, so the severity of the illness and strain on hospitals is surely lower with Omicron.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 20:33


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 11167173)
You are making a huge logical fallacy in that statement. You are assuming that the rise in cases is matched by a exact rise in hospitalisation/ICU admission, whereas most acknowledge increased infectiousness but decreased severity with Omicron, up to 80% less severe. It's why South Africa suffered about 1/6th the hospitalisation of their Delta wave. I'd expect ICU admissions to level out much lower, and then we really don't know the breakdown of those admitted for Covid reasons and those admitted for other reasons who test positive for regular screening, and are counted in official numbers. They may be asymptomatic. You can hardly say Covid is overloading hospitals then. About 75% of those in ICU in NSW have Delta not Omicron, so what we are seeing is the end of the Delta wave in hospitals, not so the recent rise in cases. The increasing Omicron cases will not cause a similar rise in hospital admissions/ICU

The length stay in hospitals is also lower, from 8 down to 2.8 days on average. I don't know too much about the disease treatment but I imagine you can't be admitted to hospital for Covid, get sent to the ICU, get put on a ventilator, get taken off a ventilator, be monitored back to the ICU, then downgraded to general wards and then discharged all within 2 and a half days, so the severity of the illness and strain on hospitals is surely lower with Omicron.

You are not wrong, but there are a lot of maybes and we thinks there. The way Omicron is spreading, it can BE a much less severe ailment on average and still hugely effect our health system. ICU beds don't grow on trees, in particular in terms ofpersonelle, and we only ever had as many as we thought we needed in "normal" times. Hostpitals in the US are facing an absolute crisis- admittedly in places where the Trump factor has led to loow vaccination rates, but we are in for a pretty torrid time.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 20:34


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 11167170)
How many ventilators and ICU beds in NSW? About 2000 each.

How many currently in use for Covid patients? 145 ICU beds and 40 Ventilators. Approx 387 ICU beds taken up with non Covid patients at any one time, so total ICU capacity not even 30% yet. And a good proportion of those were incidental, somewhere between 25-50%.

If you're going to predict that ICU and ventilators will be very near capacity (90%+) by 29/01 then you'd better be hoping for a massive increase, as data from South Africa and Europe has shown the Omicron wave peaks in about a month, so should be on the downswing by late Jan.

I hope you're right.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 20:36


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11166987)
Mate I agree with you there - you wonít find me going and getting tested voluntarily.

And thus any pretence of a responsible individual vanishes...

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 21:19


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11167312)
And thus any pretence of a responsible individual vanishes...

Key word being voluntary. As for being responsible - I donít interact with anyone I consider vulnerable. If I am displaying symptoms I would do as Iíve always done and stay home until no longer being symptomatic. The playbook is changing, even the government discourages unnecessary testing.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 21:21


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11167325)
Key word being voluntary. As for being responsible - I donít interact with anyone I consider vulnerable. If I am displaying symptoms I would do as Iíve always done and stay home until no longer being symptomatic. The playbook is changing, even the government discourages unnecessary testing.

No, they discourage unneccessary PCR testing. Taking 15 minutes to do a RAT and find out what you're dealing with is just base level responsible behaviour.

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 21:27


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11167326)
No, they discourage unneccessary PCR testing. Taking 15 minutes to do a RAT and find out what you're dealing with is just base level responsible behaviour.

So if I donít have any symptoms, Iím supposed to take a RAT everyday this year to make sure I donít step out in public whilst being covid positive?

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 21:35


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11167329)
So if I donít have any symptoms, Iím supposed to take a RAT everyday this year to make sure I donít step out in public whilst being covid positive?

Ss pilots, we are supposed to be on a 7 day rolling test regime- not to much to ask.

Airlines are cancelling thousands of flights due to staff shortages- making sure you aren't spreading it to work mates, causing ecconomic damage in the process, should be high in the mind of a supossed "get things going" advocate.

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 21:48


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11167334)
Ss pilots, we are supposed to be on a 7 day rolling test regime- not to much to ask.

Airlines are cancelling thousands of flights due to staff shortages- making sure you aren't spreading it to work mates, causing ecconomic damage in the process, should be high in the mind of a supossed "get things going" advocate.

I said voluntary testing. If my employment mandates a rolling 7 day test, I would comply with that.

You are entitled to your opinion on how others should behave, but based on the fallaciousness of your previous arguments, I donít value them highly at all.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 21:50


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11167340)
I said voluntary testing. If my employment mandates a rolling 7 day test, I would comply with that.

You are entitled to your opinion on how others should behave, but based on the fallaciousness of your previous arguments, I donít value them highly at all.

Based on your total lack of compassion for others, mutual.

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 21:57


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11167341)
Based on your total lack of compassion for others, mutual.

Please enlighten me how you come to the conclusion I lack total compassion for others based on what Iíve written. Generally curious as to how your bražn works.

wishiwasupthere 8th Jan 2022 22:06


Ss pilots, we are supposed to be on a 7 day rolling test regime- not to much to ask.
We are? Reference please.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 22:40


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11167342)
Please enlighten me how you come to the conclusion I lack total compassion for others based on what Iíve written. Generally curious as to how your bražn works.

You're happy to walk around asymptomatic and ignorant of it, infecting those around you. Now please point out where any of my reasoning was fallacious.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 22:41


Originally Posted by wishiwasupthere (Post 11167350)
We are? Reference please.

Class exemption for domestic aircrew to enter Queensland.

Going Nowhere 8th Jan 2022 22:51


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11167357)
Class exemption for domestic aircrew to enter Queensland.

It should apply to any aircrew who overnight in a hotspot and then return to QLD. PCR within the previous 7 days or RAT within the previous 72 hours.

Seems pointless these days reallyÖ

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 23:03


Originally Posted by Wizofoz (Post 11167356)
You're happy to walk around asymptomatic and ignorant of it, infecting those around you. Now please point out where any of my reasoning was fallacious.

Dr Dre pointed it out very nicely.

I am free to walk around asymptomatic as we all are, and have been doing our entire lives. Because I CHOOSE not to voluntarily RAT myself doesnít mean I am ignorant to the fact I may infect others. I may infect them, as they have infected me. If I donít infect them, the next person will. Thatís where we are at on the eastern seaboard. Get with it mate. Everyone is going to get infected. With our high level of vaccination, we can now treat it like how we treated the flu. Thatís the words of the PM. Did you test yourself for influenza when the flu was rife in Australia or wherever you were in the world prior to this pandemic, even though you were asymptomatic? Hell, I bet you didnít even test yourself if you displayed symptoms. You probably just stayed home like I would have.

Wizofoz 8th Jan 2022 23:29


Originally Posted by Jester64 (Post 11167364)
Dr Dre pointed it out very nicely.

I am free to walk around asymptomatic as we all are, and have been doing our entire lives. Because I CHOOSE not to voluntarily RAT myself doesnít mean I am ignorant to the fact I may infect others. I may infect them, as they have infected me. If I donít infect them, the next person will. Thatís where we are at on the eastern seaboard. Get with it mate. Everyone is going to get infected. With our high level of vaccination, we can now treat it like how we treated the flu. Thatís the words of the PM. Did you test yourself for influenza when the flu was rife in Australia or wherever you were in the world prior to this pandemic, even though you were asymptomatic? Hell, I bet you didnít even test yourself if you displayed symptoms. You probably just stayed home like I would have.

So why do you need me to explain why you are irresponsible and uncompassionate when you articu;ate it so well yourself?

Jester64 8th Jan 2022 23:37

Like I said, I wanted to see how your brain works. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Torukmacto 8th Jan 2022 23:50

Why test ? If your double vaccinated, healthy , no underlying health issues just stay home and follow health advice ? Why are we in a made panic to get a test ? Itís just using up resources and added costs . We all going to get it , do we need it confirmed ? Itís more of a mental health issue now than a physical problem . What if we turned off the news , social media for a week , calmed down and reset this would be a lot easier .

Xeptu 8th Jan 2022 23:52

The purpose of opening the borders was to accept the virus and get on with it. So that is the mindset. That's the decision.
I agree that there is still a need to protect vulnerable people, I believe it is reasonable to be tested virus free prior to entering a hospital, a medical facility, an aged peoples home or any or vulnerable peoples facility, except entry via a dedicated facility covid entry point, where procedures are in place.

For anywhere else it's on us to decide if you want to risk being there, whatever that risk may be and whatever procedures you decide as a family in your own space.

I don't see the need for mandatory isolation or testing for any other reason, all that's going to do is nobble our businesses even further and for longer. I don't see the need for government controlled checkins and compliance requirements in public places other than what I have already stated.


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