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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Lead Balloon 29th Jul 2021 08:59

Mick: On your definition of "efficacy", is the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 09:05


Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc (Post 11086599)
Double vaccination in Israel - the most vaccinated country in the world - Efficacy against Delta only 42%..............

you forgot the other bit..

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain,


However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

however yes, the vaccine appears to be less effective probably because of..



Data released by the Health Ministry last week suggested that people vaccinated in January have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, the effectiveness was at 75%.

so over time the vaccines are becoming SIGNIFICANTLY less effective and in quite a short space of time. Only 6 or 7 months. Which probably means TWICE yearly boosters. But I am no virus expert. So perhaps a third shot lasts longer??



given supply issues of Pfizer and equally important the logistics of vaccinating the entire or 70%, 80% of the population. This appears to becoming an endless merry go round. Without the merry bit.

A one way ticket to Mars is looking more and more appealing

mattyj 29th Jul 2021 09:09

It probably prevents deaths..but it doesnít prevent infection or transmission..so itís not a vaccine, itís a therapy.

otherwise itís great..gst stuck in.
Americans are mandating masks again even for the vaccinated. This will never end.

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 09:22

Not all bad news actually. The study was on a small sample. I think it is a watch this space, and maybe cross fingers a bit.

https://www.salon.com/2021/07/28/pfi...iveness-fluke/

SHVC 29th Jul 2021 09:34

Mystery case just found in Vic, short, sharp, snap, quick lockdown number 6 is coming to quash this highly virulent fast moving, deadly, never seen before Delta virus. Can’t mess around with delta. NSW will soon release its own virulent strain Gamma.

KRviator 29th Jul 2021 09:36

Well this is encouraging...:yuk:

Originally Posted by The ABC
Australia should maintain its COVID-zero strategy until 80 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated, including 95 per cent of people over 70, according to a report from the Grattan Institute.
<SNIP>

Ms Wood said with a concerted effort, an 80 per cent vaccination rate is "ambitious, but it is achievable".
"Our numbers suggest you could get to 80 per cent by the end of the year if a vaccine becomes available for children under 12 and we distribute that in schools," she said. "If we don't get approval in the next few months for that type of vaccine, it will take longer … we think certainly by the end of March 2022 is achievable." Source

March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...

Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...:rolleyes: :ugh:

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 09:39


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 11086637)
Well this is encouraging...:yuk:March 2022 if we don't vaccinate children in school - and that's assuming we can get to 80% in the adult population too, something that seems increasingly unlikely if the surveys of the younger generations are anything to go by...

Loos like another 11 months on Leave Without Pay. Got the letter from Centerlink today saying they'd rejected my Covid Disaster Payment claim - apparently they don't recognize FIFO employees as being affected by the Sydney lockdown or border restrictions...:rolleyes: :ugh:

well I guessed this time next year for 80%Ö and see above on how the vaccines appear to rapidly lose their effectiveness. That is a wait and see while they do a wider study. But still.

mattyj 29th Jul 2021 09:50

Iím gonna wait until the first booster comes out and just get that..because Iím outside the box dude

MickG0105 29th Jul 2021 10:31


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086615)
Mick: On your definition of "efficacy", is the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?

It's not my definition. Per the diagram below there are a variety of endpoints for measuring efficacy. The Israeli number is for infection, likely symptomatic infection. From a public health perspective the most important efficacy endpoint is protection against severe disease and death.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....957489fad6.jpg


Protection against severe disease is typically measured by hospitalisation rates and ICU admission rates. On those efficacy endpoints both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are proving to be around 90 percent effective. I haven't refreshed the numbers recently but last week, Israel had 11,200 active cases but only 101 hospitalisations and 24 ICU admissions. Out of that case load they were only seeing one or two deaths a day.

That is an extraordinary improvement over their pre-vaccine experience. The pre-vaccination hospitalisation rate in Israel ran at about 15 percent; a week ago is it was less than one tenth of that (that is, one order of magnitude better) at around 1 percent.

While not perfect, the seat-belt analogy might be appropriate - compared to not wearing one, your risk of serious injury or death is markedly lower. I don't know how many people who walk away from what would otherwise be a fatal prang and complain about the sore shoulder and the bruising across their midriff as an indicator of poor efficacy.

Lead Balloon 29th Jul 2021 10:37

Great.

So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 11:04

Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html

MickG0105 29th Jul 2021 11:55


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086577)
Just heard some expert on the radio talking about some analysis that shows that even with 80% of Australia's population vaccinated, the number of cases arising from the unvaccinated would still overwhelm ICU capacity, which is around 7,500 beds at full 'surge capacity'. (Mick: Please track down the source and quote the facts and conclusions.)

Okey doke, I don't know where they got 7,500 ICU beds as the surge capacity. The generally accepted of figure is about 7,000 (source).

I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.

If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).

The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.

If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.

In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.

I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.

MickG0105 29th Jul 2021 12:02


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086667)
Great.

So, is "the efficacy against Delta in Israel 42% for those double vaccinated against Covid 19?"

See above. In Israel a recently released study based on an unspecified number of people shows Pfizer to have a 40-odd percent rate of efficacy against symptomatic infection with the delta-variant and a 90-odd percent rate of efficacy against serious illness.

MickG0105 29th Jul 2021 12:07


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11086677)
Seems like a third shot is highly effective. The Israel figures showing low effectiveness are based on a very small study. More work required.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...a-variant.html

Note the efficacy endpoint being addressed - efficacy in preventing any Covid-19 infection that causes even minor symptoms.

bigsmelly 29th Jul 2021 13:03

Also, bear in mind that at the start of the pandemic, when we had no treatment and no vaccines ,the discourse on vaccines was that vaccine with 50% efficacy in preventing death would be worthwhile.
The fact that they are in the 90% range against the original variant has exceeded all expectations.



machtuk 29th Jul 2021 13:16

Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)

dr dre 29th Jul 2021 14:06


Originally Posted by machtuk (Post 11086749)
Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)

Fatality rate 10-20 times higher than the flu, massive increase in excess mortality, much higher risk of complications than the flu, higher rate and duration of ventilation.

NSW is already cancelling elective surgery as ICUs are filling up. Thatís with 2500 active cases. NSW has a population similar to Sweden, favourite of the ďlet it ripĒ brigade, and they were at 200k active cases at their peak. NSW has 60 already in the ICU with a total of 900 ICU beds, which are generally close to full with the expected users during normal times.

What do you think the capacity is going to be like if active cases get beyond 2500?




rattman 29th Jul 2021 21:11


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11086622)
you forgot the other bit..

Pfizer and BioNTechís Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain,

And you forgot the bit where the US and UK studies show its 70-88% effective, theres still no cut and dried answers to this sort of the stuff

US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ

And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-st...ll-work-164351

Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others

Lead Balloon 29th Jul 2021 21:57


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11086701)
Okey doke, I don't know where they got 7,500 ICU beds as the surge capacity. The generally accepted of figure is about 7,000 (source).

I'm struggling to see how we would overwhelm that with such a high vaccination rate, 80 percent of Australia's population vaccinated roughly equates to 100 percent of the adult population vaccinated. Even assuming that they meant 80 percent of the adult population vaccinated, that's still a high number.

If you take the recent UK experience (possibly in its early days at this point) in their 70-odd percent of the adult population fully vaccinated world, they have seen case prevalence (active cases as a proportion of population) probably peak at 1.61 percent (1.1 million active cases). If we were to see something similar here in our notional highly vaccinated world that would see us at around 417,000 active cases (presently we have less than 3,000 active cases).

The present hospitalisation burden in the UK is 6,000-odd admissions with ICU admissions running at around 850. In other words, in the UK they are currently seeing a hospitalisation rate of less than 1.5 percent, with ICU admissions running at a vanishing low 0.2 percent. Based on those rates we would have to see 3.5 million active cases to fill 7,000 ICU beds. That translates to a case prevalence of around 13.5 percent - unheard of, worse than the prevalence of malaria in India, it would be the equivalent of at least every left hander in the country being an active case and then some.

If we look at Israel, a somewhat more matured post-vaccination example, they currently have about 15,000 active cases for a case prevalence of 0.17 percent. Their current hospitalisation burden is just 280-odd admissions with about 35 of those in ICUs. That is a hospitalisation rate of nearly 2 percent (assuring not dissimilar to the UK) and an ICU admission rate of 0.23 percent (again, assuringly similar to the UK). Those Israeli numbers would yield the same sort of utterly ridiculous required case prevalence rate here to fill 7,000 ICU beds.

In fact, if you want to look at just our baseline ICU bed capacity of around 2,400 beds, based on the UK and Israeli experience, we would need to see 960,000 active cases to fill those beds. That's a case prevalence rate of 3.72 percent. On the US's very worst day with a largely unvaccinated population they only hit a prevalence rate of 2.7 percent. On the UK's very worst day, again with a largely unvaccinated population, they still didn't hit 3 percent case prevalence.

I'm pretty sure that I'd be calling bullsh^t on said expert on the radio's claim.

Well done, Mick! You passed my test.

It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).

Will be interesting to hear what comes out of the 'National Cabinet' today.

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 22:13


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11086918)
And you forgot the bit where the US and UK studies show its 70-88% effective, theres still no cut and dried answers to this sort of the stuff

US studies show intial effecacy of 96% and overtime decreasing to 64%, same range for moderna as well. Both are RDNA, us doesn't use AZ

And heres one from france in peer review atm
https://theconversation.com/covid-st...ll-work-164351

Yes there are less effective against delta but 39% seems a outler compared to others


which is what I said in that and subsequent posts. I even posted in my subsequent comment a link to an article that goes into some detail about the Israeli numbers and casts doubt on the low number in that study. And also a link about the uk in relation to a third Pfizer dose which also contains uk efficiency numbers. I suggest you read those. It seems like more work needs doing on the Israeli number as it was a very small sample. And as someone else pointed out, it depends what effectiveness you are measuring against. Any infection no matter how mild or against serious infection requiring hospitalisation or causing death. The vaccines do seem very effective against the latter two, but there does appear to be potentially a drop off in effectiveness, potentially greater than might have been expected.


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