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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

blubak 28th Jul 2021 21:47


Originally Posted by turbantime (Post 11086185)
Take away the opportunity to go to a pub/restaurant/concert or any interstate/overseas travel and watch their tune change pretty quickly.

Interesting you say that,i had a conversation with a childcare centre manager a couple of days ago & asked her about vaccination requirements for the kids that go there.
She told me that in 10 years of being in her position there have only been 3 families that would not get their kids vaccinated.
She said of all the others who didnt want to they soon changed their mind when they realised they would not be able to have their kids attend a childcare centre.

StudentInDebt 28th Jul 2021 21:56


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086420)
The flaw in your reasoning is that it will be hospitals and their ICUs that "take care of the rest" until nature takes its course.

If too few choose the get the vaccine even though it's available, there's a real risk that the medical system will be overwhelmed by the Covid sick when we (not if, we have no choice but to) 'let it rip', thus crowding out the vaccinated from the 'normal' activities of the medical system. It's pretty difficult getting proper emergency assistance after serious injury in an accident, if every ICU bed is full of the Covid sick and staff have to shuffle around in Hazmat outfits.

This is a point that seems to go over the heads of those that point at the “low death rate”.

chookcooker 28th Jul 2021 21:59

Simple, if you’re in a car crash, they wheel the most recent COVID sick anti-Vaxer into the car park and you take their bed.

ruprecht 28th Jul 2021 22:07

People who were able to get vaccinated but refused should get nothing but palliative care.

How many small businesses need to fail because some idiots refuse to get vaccinated? I’m through playing with these morons: their choice, their consequences.

Xeptu 28th Jul 2021 22:27


Originally Posted by aviation_enthus (Post 11086334)
Why can’t this be dealt with like the flu vaccine?

A new version of the flu vaccine is currently released every 6 months to coincide with the Northern and Southern Hemisphere winters. No reason why a COVID booster couldn’t be released along the same time frame in the future.

Well there is a reason, we might not be able to do it, That is over simplifying the miracle of modern science, just a tad.

MickG0105 28th Jul 2021 22:44


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 11086276)
Mick, I will choose one just to show how wrong you are.



Try 1142 road deaths in the last twelve months. Double your figure. Should we lock down cars to prevent deaths?

https://www.bitre.gov.au/publication...thly_bulletins

Careful Icarus!

I will go back to your question just to show you that I answered it correctly and accurately. Your question was


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 11085920)
... how many people have died this year from flu, diabetes, car crashes, suicides, allergies?


This year. Not the past twelve months, this year. And the numbers that I provided were for year to date, this year.

Given that we're a bit past halfway through the current year, little wonder that the figure I gave you is roughly half the rolling 12 month total.



Torukmacto 28th Jul 2021 22:57

There is a tipping point when Australians will want to get vaccinated . Countries that where hit hard and people experienced family and friends struggle on ventilators have %80+ vaccination rates . Poor countries having seen family die in hospital hallways will accept any type of vaccination . Australia being the lucky country we don’t have these motivators to assist our vaccination uptake . Australians love houses so maybe raffle a house with views of Sydney harbour , to enter you must be vaccinated . Vaccine passports , without it , no restaurants, no travel , no beaches and no footy .

MickG0105 28th Jul 2021 22:58


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086161)
So, on your estimates of the 'financial' and 'non-financials' back then were: $450 billion 'spent' by governments collectively and $40 billion in 'non-financial costs'.

What does 40,000 lives saved (to go the extremes of the estimate) times $5 million add up to? Maybe we're mixing US billions with Australian billions?

40,000 x $5,000,000 = $200,000,000,000. That number, 200 with nine zeroes after it, would be called $200 billion regardless of whether you were in the US or Australia. OECD, World Bank, IMF, EU, US Treasury, HM Treasury, etc all use the convention that 1 billion is 1000 million or a 1 with nine zeroes after it.

Icarus2001 28th Jul 2021 23:09

Mick, nice wriggle, financial year, calendar year or this last year. So are we locking down cars?

MickG0105 28th Jul 2021 23:22


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 11086452)
Mick, nice wriggle, financial year, calendar year or this last year. ...

Wriggle? How about just basic written comprehension. The wonderful thing about the English language is its capacity for precision and concision. You asked a question about this year, I answered it - drawing directly from the data that is downloadable from the BITRE website you posted a link to (it's Table 1.2 field 018 for reference) - and then you launched on me to show that I was wrong. I wasn't.

It would appear that having the humility to say, 'Oops, my mistake', is a rare commodity around here.


Originally Posted by Icarus2001 (Post 11086452)
So are we locking down cars?

Well, I make a habit of locking mine. You do you.

Lead Balloon 28th Jul 2021 23:24


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11086447)
40,000 x $5,000,000 = $200,000,000,000. That number, 200 with nine zeroes after it, would be called $200 billion regardless of whether you were in the US or Australia. OECD, World Bank, IMF, EU, US Treasury, HM Treasury, etc all use the convention that 1 billion is 1000 million or a 1 with nine zeroes after it.

Rightyho then...

On your figures, we're paying $490 billion in 'real' costs (I reckon at $40 billion you're still underestimating the value of the non-financial costs) in order to save $200 billion (the value of 40,000 'statistical' lives, with the 40,000 being an over-estimate). I reckon it's closer to $600 billion 'spent' to save $100 billion in lives. And that $490 or $600 billion or whatever it happens to be now, is increasing by 100s of millions every DAY half the country's population is locked down.

Sooner or later...

("concision"? And you often don't 'get' sarcasm. Hmmm. Methinks you're not from 'around here'.)

WingNut60 28th Jul 2021 23:35


Originally Posted by Torukmacto (Post 11086446)
There is a tipping point when Australians will want to get vaccinated . Countries that where hit hard and people experienced family and friends struggle on ventilators have %80+ vaccination rates . Poor countries having seen family die in hospital hallways will accept any type of vaccination . Australia being the lucky country we don’t have these motivators to assist our vaccination uptake . Australians love houses so maybe raffle a house with views of Sydney harbour , to enter you must be vaccinated . Vaccine passports , without it , no restaurants, no travel , no beaches and no footy .

Hell yeah. I can hardly wait to move to Sydney.

layman 28th Jul 2021 23:40

Not comparing apples with apples but ... as has been mentioned many times before, perhaps the reason for lockdowns is to ‘save’ the health system (and lives in general) not just from Covid.

Japans hospital system is allegedly close to ‘collapse’

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...pics/100323570

Xeptu 28th Jul 2021 23:42


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 11086461)
Hell yeah. I can hardly wait to move to Sydney.

I see you're from Indonesia. Are you there now, how are you getting along, the stats are not looking pleasant over there. My thoughts are with Indonesia.

SHVC 28th Jul 2021 23:43

Reported in the Australian, seems to be no explanation as to why given NSW has gone no where near as hard as DA lockdown methods. Also reported the C-19 vaccine (which one is not reported) is definitely working and doing as expected. Out of 2500 cases only 6 in aged care reported out of those 6 there is 5 vaccinated and have not reported any serious illness to the virus.


STEPHEN LUNN2 HOURS AGO | 7.50AMSydney spread slower than Melbourne, despite Delta

Sydney’s growth of new Covid-19 infections is running at a little more than half of that experienced by Melbourne last year at the same stage of its outbreak despite the fact NSW is grappling with a more infectious strain.

Victoria’s seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases stood at 10.1 on June 17 last year. By July 19 last year the seven day average of new Covid-19 infections had ballooned to 287.1.

Over the same 33-day period Sydney’s seven-day average of new cases has risen from 12.6 on June 26, when a lockdown was imposed on four Sydney local government areas, to 151.7 on Wednesday when Gladys Berejiklian extended Greater Sydney’s lockdown for 28 days.

Over the same comparable period 19 people had died in Victoria compared with 11 in Sydney.

The rate of growth in the two outbreaks was broadly similar for the first three weeks. Victoria’s seven-day moving average passed 100 on day 21 (102.3 on July 7, last year). While Sydney’s seven-day average of new cases jumped into the nineties on day 22 (96 on July 17) and stayed in the nineties until day 27, July 22.

Once Melbourne’s seven-day average had passed 100 it doubled over the next six days.

Sydney’s seven-day moving average has gone up by about 50 per cent in the six days since it passed a seven-day average of new cases of 100 – from 105 on July 22 to 151 on Wednesday

MickG0105 28th Jul 2021 23:47


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086458)
Rightyho then...

On your figures, we're paying $490 billion in 'real' costs (I reckon at $40 billion you're still underestimating the value of the non-financial costs) in order to save $200 billion (the value of 40,000 'statistical' lives, with the 40,000 being an over-estimate). I reckon it's closer to $600 billion 'spent' to save $100 billion in lives. And that $490 or $600 billion or whatever it happens to be now, is increasing by 100s of millions every DAY half the country's population is locked down.

Sooner or later...

("concision"? And you often don't 'get' sarcasm. Hmmm. Methinks you're not from 'around here'.)

$450 billion, $600 billion - call it $525 as an estimate with ±15 percent error bars. Is the spend more than the value of statistical life figure? Yes, most assuredly. Is it 'orders of magnitude higher'? No, most assuredly not.

Looking ahead, the data out of the UK (still somewhat early days) and Israel seems to be illustrating that 55-60 percent of the population fully vaccinated gets you out of the woods, relatively. We should hit that around early November.

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 00:08


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11086465)
$450 billion, $600 billion - call it $525 as an estimate with ±15 percent error bars. Is the spend more than the value of statistical life figure? Yes, most assuredly. Is it 'orders of magnitude higher'? No, most assuredly not.

Looking ahead, the data out of the UK (still somewhat early days) and Israel seems to be illustrating that 55-60 percent of the population fully vaccinated gets you out of the woods, relatively. We should hit that around early November.


except Gladys has very very foolishly stated 80% which we won’t get to until this time next year if then. There will be a plateauing once we get to around 65%.

so she needs to stfu about 80% seeing as no major country is near that now and many are opening up already like the uk at around 60%. I think scomo when he mentions Christmas is on the money. Like you said we should be around 65% by then , 55% or 60 sometime in November

KRviator 29th Jul 2021 00:15

As of this morning the UK has 88.1% of all adults with their first vaccination and 71.1% have had both - but they opened up with (I think) 80 & 66%-ish. Source

I would be very surprised to see Australia, not just NSW, get close to 80% in any reasonable timeframe, both due to vaccine hesitancy and Scotty's mishandling of the rollout.

MickG0105 29th Jul 2021 00:32


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 11086474)
As of this morning the UK has 88.1% of all adults with their first vaccination and 71.1% have had both - but they opened up with (I think) 80 & 66%-ish. Source

I would be very surprised to see Australia, not just NSW, get close to 80% in any reasonable timeframe, both due to vaccine hesitancy and Scotty's mishandling of the rollout.

On the basis that Joe and Joanne Six-pack aren't already befuddled enough, when it comes to vaccination rates and targets there are, of course, at least two different measures - vaccinations per total population and vaccinations per adult population. 80 percent of the adult population is roughly 60 percent of the total population. I suspect that Gladys was talking about 80 percent of the adult population, which should be doable before year end.

SHVC 29th Jul 2021 00:33

As Sco Mo keeps saying on numerous occasion even as late as this morning “high vaccination rates won’t stop lockdowns” so it does not matter whether 70% 80% or 90% is reached lockdowns will o our moving forward.

Also strong word over 200 will be announced for NSW today, lucky construction workers are allowed back on site from Saturday they have been hit extremely hard not being able to work for 14 days.


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