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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

43Inches 29th Jul 2021 22:50


Approx 26 Mill people in Oz, how many only in ICU because of this so called deadly virus?......be afraid!-)
less than 35000 known cases of a nasty flu virus, how many have recovered?.......be afraid!-)
Currently 33,700 cases vs 922 deaths is 2.7% mortality rate, complication rate is as high as 25%. 1 in 40 death rate if you like.

Flu is currently 36 from 22,000 cases, which equals 0.01% mortality rate, complication rate almost 1%. 1 in 1000 death rate.

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 23:11

Meanwhile, another study on blood clots from Pfizer versus AstraZeneca shows they both have the same rate. However, people getting Pfizer were on average older and had more underlying conditions so who knows…,I hope we don’t get a GREAT BIG SCARE CAMPAIGN against Pfizer now like we have had against AstraZeneca.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...udy-finds.html

MickG0105 29th Jul 2021 23:11


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086932)
Well done, Mick! You passed my test.

So, elephant stamp? early mark this afternoon?



Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086932)
It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. He did in fact say "7,000" ICU beds rather than 7,500 and his comments about them still being overwhelmed were in relation to 50% of the population being vaccinated rather than 80%. The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).

That sounds (typically) overly conservative. There's not a bad analogue for letting it rip at or below 50 percent vaccination rates - the Netherlands. They were at about 45 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated when they lifted essentially all restrictions back in mid-June. Unsurprisingly, cases spiked rapidly such that after a month they started reimposing restrictions. Nearly 90 percent of their cases are delta-variant. Of note though is that hospitalisations and ICU admissions did not blow out on them. Their case prevalence rate is sitting just below 1 percent (about 171,000 active cases) and they are seeing hospitalisation and ICU admission rates of 0.28 percent and 0.1 respectively.

Applying that ICU admission rate here, we'd need 2.4 million active cases (nearly 10 percent case prevalence) just to fill our baseline 2,400 ICU beds. Even if you were to be super conservative and double the Netherlands ICU admission rate that means you would have to see a case prevalence rate of 4.7 percent; even entirely unvaccinated countries on their worst days weren't seeing that sort of number but they weren't dealing with the delta-variant back then either.

You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.

Gnadenburg 29th Jul 2021 23:37

At some stage, this debate will be about our economy and the unsustainablity of current fiscal practices and the vulnerability of our exports to China.

I cannot believe Australians would wish this national debt on their children or grand-children. Is there a belief we won't face more challenges as a nation soon, requiring crippling further debt? Discounting Black Swan events, likely scenarios include serious rearming and the cost and politics of Global Warming.

Yet many Aussies I talk to happy to have their hand out for government cash.

Foxxster 29th Jul 2021 23:48

You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.

yep. So around about December . Hopefully summer holidays and Xmas won’t be ruined then. We need to hope there are no supply issues with Pfizer.


We are also due to get Moderna late in the year but they appear to be having supply issues now.

Moderna has pushed back its late-July vaccine shipment schedule for South Korea to August due to supply problems that will affect other countries waiting on Moderna shots, a South Korean health official says.

The issue is due to the vaccine manufacturing process involving Swiss contract drugmaker Lonza and a Spain-based company which does bottling work for the Moderna vaccine, the official, Lee Sang-won, told a briefing on Tuesday.

Moderna is also set to supply Australia with 25 million doses from late 2021. The agreement is for 10 million doses of their current vaccine, and 15 million doses of booster or variant-specific versions of the vaccine.

Lead Balloon 30th Jul 2021 00:30


You get a sense that your vaccination target for going, and planning on staying, lockdown-free is between 50 - 70 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated. You'd probably want to err towards the high side of that range.
My guesstimate, which I hope is wrong, is that Scotty will announce 80% as the magic number, hopefully with some nuance around essential workers and the aged and otherwise particularly vulnerable.

Better to aim for 80% and open up at e.g. 75% in the light of the then-prevailing circumstances, than aim for 70% and realise that in the light of the then-prevailing circumstances it would not be prudent to open up at that number.

And along the way the ongoing consideration of and disquiet over the ever-increasing real costs paid versus the value of the projected lives saved may result in the target - whatever it is - being mugged by reality.

Agent_86 30th Jul 2021 01:02

170 in NSW today

43Inches 30th Jul 2021 01:15

Late last year the numbers banded around were 80% vaccination coverage to be effective. This being due to 60%-70% vaccine efficacy, ie 80% vaccine with 70% efficacy results in about 55-60% effective coverage. The 80% being regarded as the highest possible figure due to anti vaxxers and those not able to vax.

DirectAnywhere 30th Jul 2021 01:17

From today's ABC COVID blog.


Analysis from Melbourne's Burnet Institute has found 95 per cent of people aged over 60 would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order for Australia to open its borders safely.

The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.

The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrewsí attendance at National Cabinet later today.

Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard said even with the high vaccination rates, mask regulations and occasional lockdowns would still occur if the borders were opened.

"Restrictions will be required, even with high levels of vaccination," Professor Hellard said.

"We will occasionally need to bring in restrictions to control an outbreak, to stop people getting sick and dying from COVID."

National Cabinet is meeting today to discuss the vaccination levels required to do away with lockdowns.

The Doherty Institute has provided modelling on the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated before lockdowns are no longer needed.

43Inches 30th Jul 2021 01:30

As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.

MickG0105 30th Jul 2021 01:48


Originally Posted by DirectAnywhere (Post 11086972)
From today's ABC COVID blog.

Analysis from Melbourne's Burnet Institute has found 95 per cent of people aged over 60 would need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order for Australia to open its borders safely.

The researchers found a 70 per cent vaccination rate for those under 60 would also be required to prevent severe outbreaks of the Delta variant.

The modelling has been provided to the Victorian government ahead of Premier Daniel Andrewsí attendance at National Cabinet later today.


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086932)
It was a chap from the Doherty Institute. ... The Institute's modelling supports a relaxation of restrictions at 80% (but 90% for some demographics).

Terrific. We'll get into a shoot-out between competing modelling. Always helpful. I wonder if Anna and Mark will be coming along with their own forecasts and modelling.

The Burnett Institute numbers - 95 per cent of people aged over 60 plus 70 per cent for those under 60 (presumably down to 18 year olds) - equate to just shy of 60 percent of the total population or 75 percent of the adult population.

dr dre 30th Jul 2021 02:17

Thanks to the moronic clowns who protested last weekend this has now happened:


SOPS 30th Jul 2021 02:47

Why are we not surprised???!!!!!

Lead Balloon 30th Jul 2021 03:43


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11086975)
As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.

Then, as Iíve said before, Australia should continue with random capital city lockdowns and interstate and international border closures, indefinitely. Great for the economic numbers!

SOPS 30th Jul 2021 04:25

And we now have a tradie who knew he was positive, that has been working on a construction site for at least a week!!!

There is no hope!!!ín

minigundiplomat 30th Jul 2021 04:26


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11086975)
As far as Australias economy. GDP is now higher than pre Covid, which is why the federal gov is not handing out cash, otherwise we risk inflation kicking in, that is despite covid and the Federals ruining our china relationship. Scomo could just patch up relations with China and boost the economy another several percentage points. Jobless rate is tipped to lower to around 4.5% by December as major hirers are already hording casuals because of our restrained labor market. So the actual numbers are nothing near dire, in fact, the opposite, it might be too good and we could overheat. Again don't believe the single headline chasers on the news and media about some poor casual in Sydney Western suburbs doing it tough as being the general nature of what is happening. Melbourne did the same thing last year for longer. As far as the kids of the future, it will be the same, have family money, have house, don't have family money, rent.

Donít eat all those crayons, Champ.

43Inches 30th Jul 2021 05:07


Then, as Iíve said before, Australia should continue with random capital city lockdowns and interstate and international border closures, indefinitely. Great for the economic numbers!
30th Jul 2021 12:47
Well no, the numbers would obviously be better given no lockdowns, however the effect of lockdown is nowhere near what is being thrown about. One simple reason, lockdowns are not structural problems with the economy, they are just road humps. As soon as the lockdown ends, the pent up spending needs blow out and pump cash back into the system. When a lockdown occurs people might not earn as much, but they have nothing to blow it on anyway. A company goes broke, sad yes, another one starts to replace it, as the need is there. Businesses start and fail regularly, in good times its about 2/3rd fail each year. As has been said before more is also being spent in the domestic market due to no foreign travel which is proping it up. Its like saying Virgin failed because of covid, we all know its not true, if anything covid gave Virgin the ability to reorganise itself under another company and keep most of its workforce due to jobkeeper.

As far as jobs go, there are heaps of adds for low paid work at the moment, any casual out of work should walk into another job almost instantly, if you are genuine about it. I'm associated with supermarkets right now and its a constant stream of new employees.

Now local retail, that has been a sad story for some time due to internet sales, if you havn't pivoted to online sales yet you were in a terminal decline anyway.

If you work in Aviation and inbound tourism, toughen up, its going to be a long road out, nothing is going to change that. But the majority of the economy has adapted to the situation.


Donít eat all those crayons, Champ.
Can't, you ate them all first, then started on the tide pods.

Torukmacto 30th Jul 2021 05:08


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11087017)
And we now have a tradie who knew he was positive, that has been working on a construction site for at least a week!!!

There is no hope!!!ín

Going to run out of fingers trying to stop the leaks in this dam wall . %70-%80 vaccinated is the new game in town .

patty50 30th Jul 2021 06:00


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11086590)
Yep. When the ambulance screeches to a halt at the door of the emergency department of the hospital, they'll add "have you chosen not to be vaccinated for Covid 19" to the existing list of questions asked in deciding whether to provide or refuse treatment to someone in a medical crisis.

Remind me of the existing list of questions asked by a hospital in deciding whether to admit or refuse someone who can't breathe to the emergency department.


Fortunately the Health Minister and Chief Health Officer arenít as sadistic as some of the posters here and are welcoming people to hospitals if they need healthcare irrespective of how they caught the virus or their vaccination status.

Would be interesting to see the empty hospitals if we rationed healthcare based on ďhe shouldíve known this might happenĒ. No more alcoholics, smokers, obese people, motorbike riders, DIY-ladder-climbers.

PoppaJo 30th Jul 2021 09:00

National Cabinet might as well just be abandoned as old mate out west has other ideas vs what the PM outlined this evening. WA could be locking down for years and years to come. This industry will basically fall over if thatís the case.


Lockdowns are, really, until we're all vaccinated, the only thing that works.

"When we hit the 80 per cent mark, lockdowns would only be for unusual circumstances in specific locations, but 80 per cent vaccination is very high."

Mr McGowan also announced ships from "high risk" countries will now be blocked from entering his state's ports.

While the measures were "robust and draconian", he said, they're necessary to protect West Australians.



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