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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

SOPS 20th Aug 2021 08:35

West Australians have until midnight Wednesday to get home. After that, itís too late. And Iím guessing it will be until a least the end of the year, but I hope Iím wrong.

KRviator 20th Aug 2021 08:38

I'm going to absolutely pi$$ myself when it gets into WA. Even if I'm off work for another 6 months, it'll be worth it...:}

SOPS 20th Aug 2021 08:42


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 11098321)
I'm going to absolutely pi$$ myself when it gets into WA. Even if I'm off work for another 6 months, it'll be worth it...:}

I hate to point this out, but Delta has already been in WA. A women came back from Sydney in June and later tested positive for Delta. On the one case alone, Perth and Mandurah went into a hard and fast lockdown for 4 days.. and the outbreak was controlled.

WingNut60 20th Aug 2021 09:23


Originally Posted by SOPS (Post 11098316)
West Australians have until midnight Wednesday to get home. After that, itís too late. And Iím guessing it will be until a least the end of the year, but I hope Iím wrong.

The warning has been in the winds for several days now.
There are no surprises here.

It'll be pretty hard for someone to claim that they "got caught"

Turnleft080 20th Aug 2021 10:00


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 11098340)
The warning has been in the winds for several days now.
There are no surprises here.

It'll be pretty hard for someone to claim that they "got caught"

Meanwhile back in Vic, Dan was more angry ( like not happy Jan add) saying "the government done our bit if numbers rise it is entirely your fault. We will lockdown harder." I didn't think we could lockdown any harder. I heard on 3aw take off one more hour off exercise, extend curfew 8pm-6am, kill the gardeners and take away. "On a knife edge".

Chronic Snoozer 20th Aug 2021 10:43


Originally Posted by KRviator (Post 11098321)
I'm going to absolutely pi$$ myself when it gets into WA. Even if I'm off work for another 6 months, it'll be worth it...:}

Yes champ. That's the attitude to have.

MickG0105 20th Aug 2021 10:43


Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 11098279)
I have been trying to find info (maybe someone can) on the sudden disappearance of the Wuhan, Alpha, Beta, Gamma variants. On most graphs they are down to < 2%. Vaccines pretty march started at the beginning of the year so it wasn't the vaccines that kicked them out. Did the Delta variant just push them aside. ...

It's straightforward evolution, survival of the fittest, where fitness is measured in infectiousness.

The coronavirus has the potential to throw up a mutation every time it infects a cell and produces more of itself (ie. each 'generation'). Some of the mutations yield nothing in particular but every once in a while a mutation that changes the spike protein will make that variant more infectious. If that new variant is significantly more infectious and occurs in a relatively uninfected population, it's off to the races. Typically the more infectious variant outperforms its forebear and becomes the new dominant strain, initially in that population. The wonder of international air travel tends to be what connects a new variant to broader populations.

Thus when the 'original' Wuhan reached the UK that relatively uninfected population become the feedstock for the alpha-variant, about 50 percent more contagious than the original. In South Africa the original variant threw up the beta-variant, again about 50 percent more contagious than the original. Gamma probably first developed in South America but manifested itself in Japan. Delta appears to be one of the first variants on a variant, in that it almost certainly mutated from a non-original strain, likely alpha-variant, in the Indian population. It is estimated to be 60 percent more infectious than alpha and thus quickly dominated the previous dominant variant.

There's also been a raft of other variants - epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, etc - recorded that have bobbed in a specific sub-populations but that have either been not significantly more infectious than their forbear or emerged too late such that they couldn't achieve dominance.

PoppaJo 20th Aug 2021 10:47

Melbourne is about to explode and it appears a Kiwi like lockdown is being announced in the morning, for the whole state.



Turnleft080 20th Aug 2021 11:28


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11098380)
It's straightforward evolution, survival of the fittest, where fitness is measured in infectiousness.

The coronavirus has the potential to throw up a mutation every time it infects a cell and produces more of itself (ie. each 'generation'). Some of the mutations yield nothing in particular but every once in a while a mutation that changes the spike protein will make that variant more infectious. If that new variant is significantly more infectious and occurs in a relatively uninfected population, it's off to the races. Typically the more infectious variant outperforms its forebear and becomes the new dominant strain, initially in that population. The wonder of international air travel tends to be what connects a new variant to broader populations.

Thus when the 'original' Wuhan reached the UK that relatively uninfected population become the feedstock for the alpha-variant, about 50 percent more contagious than the original. In South Africa the original variant threw up the beta-variant, again about 50 percent more contagious than the original. Gamma probably first developed in South America but manifested itself in Japan. Delta appears to be one of the first variants on a variant, in that it almost certainly mutated from a non-original strain, likely alpha-variant, in the Indian population. It is estimated to be 60 percent more infectious than alpha and thus quickly dominated the previous dominant variant.

There's also been a raft of other variants - epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, etc - recorded that have bobbed in a specific sub-populations but that have either been not significantly more infectious than their forbear or emerged too late such that they couldn't achieve dominance.

Thanks for that MickG0105. Makes you wonder, the longer you lockdown the more time their is to generate a new variant.

Potsie Weber 20th Aug 2021 11:50

What happens when we get to the end of the Greek alphabet for variants? Is that when this ends or do we move onto Roman numerals?

MickG0105 20th Aug 2021 11:59


Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 11098396)
Thanks for that MickG0105. Makes you wonder, the longer you lockdown the more time their is to generate a new variant.

You're welcome.

And yes and no on the latter. Each infected person is an incubator for a potential new variant. If you keep the number of infected down, you reduce the likelihood of a new, significantly more infectious variant emerging. Further, if you have measures in place to limit spread you can prevent a new variant from gaining a foothold. That's why the way out of this is likely to be multifaceted - at the very least a combination of vaccination and some infection control measures.

Lead Balloon 20th Aug 2021 12:00

That's why the Omega strain is going to be 'interesting'. We need to hope against hope that the 'light at the end of the tunnel' isn't the glow of the Omega or some other strain that's mutated to luminescence.

Paragraph377 20th Aug 2021 12:30

Iím still curious as to one thing - if Ďtechnicallyí they donít know/canít prove how or what caused the virus, or what causes it to mutate, then how can the Government actually know what the real solution for eradicating it is? Are lockdowns, masks and the current vaccines really going to work long term? Where does root cause come into this - itís pretty difficult to resolve this pandemic if you donít even know what the root cause is in the first place? For Melbourne to go into lockdown 6 times it shows that the current measures are not effective because the virus does keep coming back and spreading.

TBH, I donít need a lecture in the theories of mask wearing and lockdowns to minimise the spread, I get it. Iím looking at the prospect of this - if you donít know what causes the problem how can you truly fix it? Because with these variants it looks like we could be doing this tango for years, and that is not only unsustainable, it is not addressing the root cause, and without a root cause how can they create a workable Ďfixí?





PoppaJo 20th Aug 2021 12:31

I know the rest of the year is going to be tough down south but sweet Jesus.



ScepticalOptomist 20th Aug 2021 13:01


Originally Posted by Paragraph377 (Post 11098428)
Iím still curious as to one thing - if Ďtechnicallyí they donít know/canít prove how or what caused the virus, or what causes it to mutate, then how can the Government actually know what the real solution for eradicating it is? Are lockdowns, masks and the current vaccines really going to work long term? Where does root cause come into this - itís pretty difficult to resolve this pandemic if you donít even know what the root cause is in the first place? For Melbourne to go into lockdown 6 times it shows that the current measures are not effective because the virus does keep coming back and spreading.

TBH, I donít need a lecture in the theories of mask wearing and lockdowns to minimise the spread, I get it. Iím looking at the prospect of this - if you donít know what causes the problem how can you truly fix it? Because with these variants it looks like we could be doing this tango for years, and that is not only unsustainable, it is not addressing the root cause, and without a root cause how can they create a workable Ďfixí?

We have no ďfixĒ or cure for the flu, but we have learned to live with it. CV and whatever else comes next will eventually be the same.

MickG0105 20th Aug 2021 13:17


Originally Posted by Paragraph377 (Post 11098428)
I’m still curious as to one thing - if ‘technically’ they don’t know/can’t prove how or what caused the virus, or what causes it to mutate ...

The mechanism by which coronaviruses replicate and mutate is very well understood - the RNA replication process that occurs after a coronavirus infects a cell is markedly less accurate than DNA replication. Each time a replication occurs the RNA creates a protein sequence and that protein sequence is then used to create a new strand of RNA - the protein sequence is a bit like a negative in photography or a mould in casting. Because of the inherent weakness in RNA replication there is a very small chance that the protein sequence could change slightly so you end up with a very, very slightly flawed negative or mould. Those changes result in the next generation of RNA that is printed/cast being changed every so slightly. When you have many, many replications occurring many, many times as you would get in a large infected population, basic probability favors that the virus will adjust. It is straightforward evolution but on a very, very condensed timeline because of a) the relatively very short inter-generarional cycle time and b) the relatively poor accuracy of the replication process. Most of the time the small 'misprints' or 'miscasts' (mutations) that arise have no effect whatsoever on how the coronavirus interacts with its target hosts but every once in a while they do.

And you don't need to know how or what "caused" the original coronavirus to emerge, once you have mapped it genetically then you're on your way to dealing with it.

Chronic Snoozer 20th Aug 2021 13:18


Originally Posted by PoppaJo (Post 11098430)
I know the rest of the year is going to be tough down south but sweet Jesus.


https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_kenn...63173716987909

How responsible, from a former politician. How many likes is he after?

Chronic Snoozer 20th Aug 2021 13:21


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11098452)
The mechanism by which coronaviruses replicate and mutate is very well understood - the RNA replication process that occurs after a coronavirus infects a cell is markedly less accurate than DNA replication. Each time a replication occurs the RNA creates a protein sequence and that protein sequence is then used to create a new strand of RNA - the protein sequence is a bit like a negative in photography or a mould in casting. Because of the inherent weakness in RNA replication there is a very small chance that the protein sequence could change slightly so you end up with a very, very slightly flawed negative or mould. Those changes result in the resulting next generation of RNA changing every so slightly. When you have many, many replications occurring many, many times as you would get in a large infected population, basic probability favors that the virus will adjust. It is straightforward evolution but on a very, very condensed timeline because of a) the relatively very short inter-generarional cycle time and b) the relatively poor accuracy of the replication process. Most of the time the small 'misprints' or 'miscasts' (mutations) that arise have no effect whatsoever on how the coronavirus interacts with its target hosts but every once in a while they do.

And you don't need to know how or what "caused" the original coronavirus to emerge, once you have mapped it genetically then you're on your way to dealing with it.

So stopping the spread is also the key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so stopping the spread is also key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so..................?

dr dre 20th Aug 2021 13:27


Originally Posted by PoppaJo (Post 11098430)
I know the rest of the year is going to be tough down south but sweet Jesus.


https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_kenn...63173716987909

Government members denying this tonight. It doesnít seem logical considering cases this time last year were in the hundreds and the lockdown ended in October, and no one has ever extended a lockdown by 4 months.

I think itís just Kennett suffering relevancy deprivation syndrome, trying to attract clicks for his ďDictator Dan must go!Ē column in the Herald Sun today, or a distraction from his stuff ups at the Hawks.


MickG0105 20th Aug 2021 13:29


Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer (Post 11098457)
So stopping the spread is also the key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so stopping the spread is also key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so..................?

Yes, yes and, in anticipation, yes. It's worth noting that after 18 months and some what? 200 million cases globally (likely many more than that) there have thus far really only been three or four variants of significant concern. That said, best not to tempt fate if you can avoid it.

601 20th Aug 2021 13:34


For Melbourne to go into lockdown 6 times it shows that the current measures are not effective because the virus does keep coming back and spreading.
We did it last year, but we were dealing with a less infectious variant. .
The measures most likely would be effective against this latest variant if EVERYONE took personal responsibility to stop the spread.

Turnleft080 20th Aug 2021 14:26


Originally Posted by 601 (Post 11098465)
We did it last year, but we were dealing with a less infectious variant. .
The measures most likely would be effective against this latest variant if EVERYONE took personal responsibility to stop the spread.

Lockdowns are like Chemo. Yes, you may kill the virus and you kill everything else with it. The longer the lockdown the longer it suppress your brain never mined the virus. Now calling it covid fatigue. Net result, all this crap lowers your immune system emotionally mentally and physically. Great, just what you want in a pandemic.

Chronic Snoozer 20th Aug 2021 14:33


Originally Posted by MickG0105 (Post 11098464)
Yes, yes and, in anticipation, yes. It's worth noting that after 18 months and some what? 200 million cases globally (likely many more than that) there have thus far really only been three or four variants of significant concern. That said, best not to tempt fate if you can avoid it.

These numbers are staggering. 4.88 billion doses administered. 35 million doses a day worldwide. Should have those trial results shortly.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vac...untry=OWID_WRL

Foxxster 20th Aug 2021 23:29

A quite effective treatment. Just approved in the uk. I wonder how long it will take us to approve it. Don’t worry, there’s no hurry or anything. Take your time. Only been used in the US for the last nine months. Might be handy to have now in the middle of the Indian variant with cases and hospitalisations spiralling .

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art....html#comments

Green.Dot 20th Aug 2021 23:33

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...ated/100394760

WTF is wrong with our media? This should be a positive story. Yes, case numbers in Israel have spiked significantly but guess what? Deaths are right down compared to ďa non-vaccinated Israeli populationĒ Itís buried deep within the story.

Australia has fck all hope with ABC spreading fear and continuing to focus on case numbers. I too wish we could eliminate COVID, we thought we could, Iím glad we gave it a go, but itís not going to happen. Accept it Australia.




ruprecht 20th Aug 2021 23:42


Originally Posted by Green.Dot (Post 11098677)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...ated/100394760

WTF is wrong with our media? This should be a positive story. Yes, case numbers in Israel have spiked significantly but guess what? Deaths are right down. Itís buried deep within the story.

Australia has fck all hope with ABC spreading fear and continuing to focus on case numbers. I too wish we could eliminate COVID, we thought we could, Iím glad we gave it a go, but itís not going to happen. Accept it Australia.

From the article:

The death rate is also much lower, despite the surging cases.
Thats all you need to know.

I listen to ABC radio, and Iím growing tired of presenters who are paid by the government telling me how ďweíre all in this togetherĒ. :hmm:

Foxxster 20th Aug 2021 23:50

61 cases in Victoria today up from 55 yesterday.

Turnleft080 21st Aug 2021 02:03


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11098681)
61 cases in Victoria today up from 55 yesterday.

Press conference just delivered. Wasn't to bad, I thought he was going to chain us to the furniture.

Foxxster 21st Aug 2021 02:11


Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 11098710)
Press conference just delivered. Wasn't to bad, I thought he was going to chain us to the furniture.


another 16 cases overnight so add those to the total they announced this morning.

Chris2303 21st Aug 2021 02:15

21 new cases in AKL - total now 51 including 6 in WLG

Foxxster 21st Aug 2021 02:17

832 for NSW today. 825 local plus 7 from overseas. Good effort Gladys. Now is the time to bunker down you said yesterday. At the start of week 9. Is that what the health advice said. Not at the start of week 1 or the start of week 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or the start of week 8. No it said wait until the state liberals start making plans to replace you and make it known they are doing so. So week 9 it is. But she is acting only on the health advice. Strange how the chief health officer didn’t give a straight answer when asked if she had given the premier advice to go harder earlier. Strange how the health minister said the health advice is not going to be released when the question was asked at one of the press conferences. It was asked after the chief health officer was asked her question to which she gave a politicians non answer.

but they are acting only on the health advice and don’t you forget it.

SOPS 21st Aug 2021 02:19


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11098716)
832 for NSW today. Good effort Gladys. Now is the time to bunker down you said yesterday. At the start of week 9. Is that what the health advice said. Not at the start of week 1 or the start of week 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or the start of week 8. No it said wait until the state liberals start making plans to replace you and make it known they are doing so. So week 9 it is. But she is acting only on the health advice. Strange how the chief health officer didnít give a straight answer when asked if she had given the premier advice to go harder earlier. Strange how the health advice is not going to be released when the question was asked.

but they are acting only on the health advice and donít you forget it.

GladysÖ. Gold Standard. And Iím pi$$ed off at ScoMo ( and I vote for him), he encouraged her.

rattman 21st Aug 2021 02:20


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11098716)
Good effort Gladys.

Truly gone for gold, vic relegated to silver

Chronic Snoozer 21st Aug 2021 02:23


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11098716)
832 for NSW today. Good effort Gladys. Now is the time to bunker down you said yesterday. At the start of week 9. Is that what the health advice said. Not at the start of week 1 or the start of week 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or the start of week 8. No it said wait until the state liberals start making plans to replace you and make it known they are doing so. So week 9 it is. But she is acting only on the health advice. Strange how the chief health officer didnít give a straight answer when asked if she had given the premier advice to go harder earlier. Strange how the health minister said the health advice is not going to be released when the question was asked at one of the press conferences. It was asked after the chief health officer was asked her question to which she gave a politicians non answer.

but they are acting only on the health advice and donít you forget it.

Give it a rest would you. They canít deal with the outbreak by looking in the rear view mirror. If people arenít compliant, thatís not the governmentís fault, is it? This constant sniping and heckling of the government(s) is just wasting bandwidth.

Turnleft080 21st Aug 2021 02:24


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11098718)
Truly gone for gold, vic relegated to silver

WA came last in the heat and didn't even make the final. NSW and VIC definitely in the best lanes.

Foxxster 21st Aug 2021 02:28


Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer (Post 11098719)
Give it a rest would you. They canít deal with the outbreak by looking in the rear view mirror. If people arenít compliant, thatís not the governmentís fault, is it? This constant sniping and heckling of the government(s) is just wasting bandwidth.


maybe you should read what I said more carefully. Then realise what is actually driving their actions. Then realise they need to be held to account.

as for the relaxation of restrictions. Well there are three thresholds. 6,000,000 vaccines, 70% vaccinated, 80% vaccinated. We are currently at about 5.7 million vaccines and will get to 6 million by Monday. Has anyone seen a definitive official list of what will be relaxed. Or for the 70% or 80% marks. Why havenít they been released, at week 9 of this shambles.

PoppaJo 21st Aug 2021 02:29

Gladys keeps speaking in riddles it gives me a headache. Switched over to Dan at least itís bloody clear and straight to the damn point.

Foxxster 21st Aug 2021 02:30


Originally Posted by PoppaJo (Post 11098722)
Gladys keeps speaking in riddles it gives me a headache. Switched over to Dan at least itís bloody clear and straight to the damn point.

And have you noticed that she has deliberately got others to speak at the press conferences so she has less time to be questioned.

Chronic Snoozer 21st Aug 2021 02:43


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11098721)
maybe you should read what I said more carefully. Then realise what is actually driving their actions. Then realise they need to be held to account.

I did. Sounds like a whinge. Unless

Good effort Gladys
was meant to be genuine praise.


Why havenít they been released, at week 9 of this shambles.
Just list for us your qualifications for dealing with pandemics again?

Look, Iím all for accountability etc but I am neither qualified nor in a position to make that assessment. I doubt you are. Is Swedenís the right approach? Is New Zealandís? How about we have less of the histrionics, sit on our hands like good pilots, and see how this pans out before calling for heads? There is very little we can do on this bulletin board about it anyway.

rattman 21st Aug 2021 02:46


Originally Posted by Foxxster (Post 11098723)
And have you noticed that she has deliberately got others to speak at the press conferences so she has less time to be questioned.

And its being held in a smaller room so they fit in less reporters and there for less questions and assuming only the tame ones get invited


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