I live in regional outback QLD and you are correct, the community here will need to be dragged kicking and screaming to get it. They all were horrified that I had the AZ and my kids also. I also remind them that Dr Young is a delusional old witch with that needs to resign. I was nearly arrested.

I reminded them of the consequences when we stop reporting cases numbers and it rips though these outback areas in future years, they didn’t have a care in the world. They will in the future however.

Except that they will all be broke by then, so I doubt anyone from NSW and VIC will be going anywhere for a while yet. Probably the very last to travel.

There is hope ahead with potential acceptance amongst state leaders, but I still can’t see WA coming to the party anytime soon…

https://apple.news/AYaDjpjC3TbCYqiwJJoskng

The logic is NSW and Vic will have different travel freedoms, not able to fly domestically but internationally. I cant wait for the Emperor and Queen P to keep the ppl convinced covid zero is the only way of living.

So the question to you, Xeptu is when would you, personally, be comfortable opening the WA border to NSW/Vic? Because, from where I sit in NSW, I'll have the opportunity to fly to Bali before I can get to Bunbury...And if McGowan won't reopen the border to NSW because of the risk, I dare say there's not a snowballs chance he'll reopen it internationally!

For me the difficulty comes in the transition from 'double dougnut' press conferences to '200 positive, 4 deaths, all good'. The politicians have taken the short term gain and immense popularity of zero covid and now they are stuck.

We are in danger of becoming a hermit nation in the meantime. The French sent a second string rugby team as the others didn't want to quarantine. Same will happen with the Ashes, IF it still goes ahead. No barmy army tourists spending money. Will Australia lose the F1? How about Australian Open tennis? Will the government give them all special exemptions? That will do down a treat with voters who want the same treatment for Australians.

I have read so thing a while back Dubai want the open off Australia, that could very well happen now. I can’t imagine the tennis players isolating like they did this yr at the 2022 open when the can easily go to another country freely. F1 that could very well go also.

So the question is to me personally ok and so my answer is my personal opinion at this time. Firstly Bali no longer exists, there would be no point going there even if you wanted to, probably for at least the next couple of years. WA opens and closes its borders to those states and territories dependant on both risk assessment and management. The border hasn't remained permanently shut.

Before WA opens it's border to NSW or VIC, firstly I would expect most if not all west australians to have been vaccinated as would be those intending to enter the state. There will still be requirements such as mask wearing in public places where people in any numbers would be. Random testing can be expected in the larger work places. I would expect a close monitoring of Europe and Israel to see what their longer term experience is.

I wouldn't expect to see these thresholds achieved and therefore border restrictions or closure much before mid 2022

I would expect west australians along with all the other largely unaffected states and territories to be comfortable with that expectation for at least another 12 months yet.

I don’t think our economy and way of life fit in with your expectations.

Our economy is doing just fine thanks and you are entitled to your opinion just the same

It’s pretty simple really. Include children aged 12 to 15 in the 80% then let it rip. Frydenburg has said he’ll turn off the taps if the States don’t fall into line. Voters will soon turn on Kim Jong Mclown and Queen P when the rest of us are enjoying our summer vacation in Europe.

You must of had a few bad hands dealt in life Xeptu! You seem to be taking great joy at others misery and pain.

Clearly a huge policy shift, but Australia needs to come into line with the majority of the rest of the world which is gradually opening up to the vaccinated. Whilst these policies stay in place, I cannot see the Ashes or Australian Open or the next F1 race happening this coming summer.

Governments are also failing to understand how the vaccine actually works - yes, the vaccine reduces your chances of getting it by around 75% but there is infection because the vaccine works in the lungs and not in the upper respiratory tract. So you’re going to get positives but that is a sign the vaccines are working as intended!

Also - models which governments love to cite. The U.K. has proven that these are constantly overplaying impacts of the virus. Whilst our case numbers are still stubbornly high, the numbers of people hospitalised are still below the best case predictions by about 20%.

You must be kidding me, how the f$#k do you conclude that. I understand your position I have been there myself more than a couple of times in my aviation career.

Prior to the year 2000, it was 5 years in the right hand seat of a turboprop to a command or picked up by the majors, grounded, merged, redundant about every 10 years and start agen, Then China happened, opened it's doors to the biggest population in the world to the tourism industry. Never before happened and 20 years of wow!! how is this even possible who would have thought. But end it would and I did tell the newbies it's not normally like this, it's unprecedented, this bubble will burst. So here we are, you guys don't know anything else, how it was precovid was the norm for you. So believe me I know what you are feeling when the music stops.

Broke? Haven't been so busy in my profession ever.

There are plenty of people in Vic making good money and we cannot wait to spend it!

Glad to hear it mate, at least there's some good news out of VIC

Hi Xeptu, the logic is simply that Covid zero is dead in NSW. Like it or not, COVID is on its way to becoming endemic in NSW, possibly Vic too unless they can get on top of things. It's feasible to see a scenario in four months where NSW residents will be able to book their summer school holiday trip to Aspen or Fiji but won't be able to drive to Queensland or fly to WA to see nanna for Christmas.

We're in this situation because of a f&&k up in NSW, no doubt, but we are where we are. There will be a price to be paid in NSW in terms of lives, again no doubt. We will probably be seeing thousands of cases a day in NSW and tens of deaths a day by December, but that situation is inevitably coming now, like it or not. Vaccines will blunt the impact but COVID is here to stay. Other states are paying a price in different ways, but have the luxury still of making decisions about when they open up and to whom of they want to retain their COVID-zero status. So be it. As a domestic pilot, none of this is good news to me but I'm just giving my opinion as to the way things might play out. It's up to the state and territory governments if and when they open up. I'd rather see things open up as soon as we hit 80%, but that's self interest talking and seems unlikely given commentary from various premiers and chief ministers, in spite of what the PM wants.

Short story, I'm not sure if it's legal to open international borders in one state only but, if it is, I think it's likely that NSW residents will be travelling overseas before they will travel to WA unless things change somehow. Educated guess, but it's feeling that way to me.

DirectAnywhere

First let me say I feel your pain and extend that to all those vast majority in both NSW and VIC doing all the right things.
I agree with all that you are saying except any possibility of any of the borders opening this year.

I don't think NSW Health has their head around what is coming in the next week or so. You'll know they are in trouble when they call for help and it won't be there like it was for VIC, our staff don't want to do it again, our states know that and are doing everything they can to assure that doesn't happen. We don't have an endless supply of ICU staff. NSW knew that too and it didn't seem to matter to them.

Excess deaths during Covid
 

Not the first time this site has been cited. The "Our World in Data" web site has a variety of graphs showing death rates from 2015 to the present.

The "Excess Mortality" graph (default country is the US) shows substantially higher death rates in 2020. Data is a little behind for 2021 e.g. United Kingdom is 'only' up to July 26, 2021.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count

Change country to Australia and you'll see our figures are not that much different from our average since 2015.

But if you care to look at a few others such as, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and they all show significant 'excess deaths' during 2021. Russia is also showing another substantial rise in 2021. United Kingdom figures to 26 July seem to be starting an upward trend just one week after their reducing restrictions.

Our advantages as an island have helped but I guess, despite their many fumbles, it would appear that Australian governments (and the vast majority of the population) have managed Covid fairly well ... at least in keeping the death toll down.

What damage??

The only “damage” that will be inflicted by opening up AFTER +80% of people have been vaccinated, will come from Premiers like McGowan forcing lockdowns for no reason.

People WANT to travel. People WANT to go and an spend money on dinner/movies/AFL/etc. People WANT to live their lives, you only have to look to Europe and the USA to see the massive rebound in demand when vaccinations are at a high level and restrictions are removed.

If the vaccines work as the evidence suggests (high 90% reduction in hospitalisations), the health system will be able to cope with the expected cases in ICU.

There is NO excuse for a lockdown or border restrictions if the WA/QLD health system is able to cope with the expected number of hospitalisations. NONE.

”oh but what about Echo/Foxtrot/Gulf variant?!”

NOPE!

We have a vaccine that can be modified, we have a testing regime to identify cases and new variants, we have had 18 months to prepare medical facilities to deal with this, when we get to 80% vaccinated, the government should basically get out of the way and let people get on with their lives.

If Covid is going to be a long term, endemic issue, then the various state health departments will have to adjust their resources to deal with a change in requirements. Same as dealing with any other disease. That may mean more ICU places, or more staff trained to deal with respiratory disease etc.

In NSW the % of patients in ICU with COVID is still well under 10%. Numerous medical professionals have stated they are busier but nowhere near stretched. They could triple the numbers in ICU with Covid and still be ok.

McGowen and Palachook are now reneging on their national cabinet agreement (again)

Saying that it was agreed before the NSW outbreak and now needs to be revised. I’m not sure what these two want, are they really that stupid to think you can eradicate covid yeah we had a good run but now it’s over. What do they expect in 5yrs time, expecting UK and US be at zero before allowing those travelers into their state?
Makes no sense their expectations moving forward.

Unfortunately all the premiers will come up with an excuse not to open . The vaccine will not change anything . If it does open the majority of people will catch COVID , even the vaccinated will become ill , may lose medical etc , we are heading into very dangerous territory as pilots and it appears there is no solution, only the strong will survive .

Who are you? "Our staff" or in other threads "My girls" in relation to West Australian nurses? Are you a spokesperson for West Australian medical staff?

You promote fear and insularism; with more than a little parochial smugness. What an ordinary Australian attitude.


Delta will hit these places because an Underground Railway of sorts will form easily with porous borders. Civil disobedience will spill out with no hope in sight. There are desperate people irrationally locked out, away from their livelihoods and loved ones. Everyday the hardship and hard luck stories are on the increase. A destructive political and social showdown is looming. How terribly sad.

So lets address what you said here, everything you say here has merit "if" your right.
NSW has the largest ICU capability in the nation, double the capacity of any other state. That's important to remember. NSW Health despite what they say that they have planned and ready for, are not. Nothing can prepare them for what's coming and the "few" of their staff that served alongside our staff in VIC know it.
By late September we expect NSW to be calling for help, by mid October the scenes in the media won't be pleasant and that will continue for at least a month well into November.

With that forecast in mind what are the chances of any of the other states following their lead and even think about opening borders.

Not what is showing if borders are closed tight, as opposed to letting workers through, say from Sydney to Melbourne, which sparked Melbourne's latest outbreak. Whether I agree that's a fair and balanced method, not the point.

The main issue with civil disobedience is just those that are not following the rules, which may account for 1-5% of the population, say 50,000-250,000 in Sydney or Melbourne. These are not the protesters or trouble makers, just those going out and spreading the thing within their community, this is the quiet growing number that is killing any chance of lockdowns ending before vaccination targets are reached.

The protesting minority is less than 0.1% of the population, strangely enough you are more likely to die of covid than attend a protest on "freedom". That said these individuals are having no real impact on lockdowns, and are just causing trouble and most likely pushing authorities to further restrictions, hence why most of the public think they are fools. The only effect they may actually have is make restrictions worse, mass protests and rioting just results in martial law.

The protests in Melbourne were an anarchists perfect dream, thugs rushing police, kids involved and getting sprayed, remember those setting these things up revel in that. Not whether you are free.

Ah! of course it's monday the call centre brigade are back.
Spoken like a true chinese national beating to a different drum.

Welcome to the history of the planet so far and Mother Nature. She ALWAYS wins.

The average australian is increasingly accepting that when we get to a point where all those who can/will are vaccinated then the validity of lockdowns become increasingly questionable.
The average australian is also increasingly accepting that at some stage we have to live with this and accept a level of sickness, hospitalisation, ICU and death; being vaccinated will lessen the effects of Covid, Covid cannot be eliminated.

The timeline is nominally end of this year, the Feds will make it clear - they already are - there will be no hope for financial assistance to lockdown states after this time; there'll probably be assistance/infrastructure grants available for states who won't lockdown.
I would hope and expect there will always be assistance at the ground level for any states that require it.

ScoMo will run a February campaign on the basis of as far as possible everything being open by Easter school holidays.
Labor will have trouble balancing their support for Comrade Dictators Vs the peoples reasonable expectations that "we're vaccinated, lets go": ScoMo will win (whether you think he should or not's irrelevant).

The average australian may wear lockdowns for now, once all are vaccinated they won't because common sense says it's no longer a valid (or as valid) approach.

Civil disobedience has started. This is just the beginning. It was inevitable. “When people lose everything, and have nothing left to lose, they lose it”. For many of us on here, we have a measure of wealth already. COVID does have an impact, but not to the extent that it will set us back 40 years. For other people, their $200 per week delivering junk mail is all that they have. Take that away and they have nothing. That’s why politicians are idiots. Sitting fat and happy on their own little rich bubbles with no concept of how the other 99% live. It will only get more volatile as the more desperate people become.

You do realise these people are not locked down, I say hello to my local junk-mailers and paper rounders as I walk around my 5 km limit. BTW I have a mate that was a major store chain manager who did a paper round while earning $300,000 a year, why, cause he liked doing it, he is a bit strange, don't sleep etc, but all the same don't just assume who is delivering your papers. He runs his own business now making a few million.

The dole pays more...

43In - you have an uncanny knack for picking one example and somehow proffering that as evidence that everything is ok. Paragraph377 was giving a general - realistic view of the economic hardship that is a bloody reality out there for tens of thousands. So maybe your local junk mail delivery fellow is still working (hard to see how delivering junk mail is essential) but the their are a hell of a lot of other people, in the arts, hospitality, tourism etc etc who have had a gut full. The protests will get bigger and bigger from now on.

I agree with what you say here and I'm sure most do. I think the timeline is pushed back now because of what's about to unfold in NSW. The states understand that by waving the carrot around about open borders and reduced restrictions too soon only inflames the restless ones and promotes covid fatigue. Something I'm sure NSW deeply regrets.
I wouldn't read too much into what the leaders say nationally in the media, that's more about staying the path, what they actually do is quite different.

And that's the problem!

The virus does not know that "lockdown" and "border closure" are mere rhetorical flourishes. There have been a small number of circumstances in which the reality has come close to the rhetoric, and NSW moving a little closer in some LGAs, but the delta between the reality and the rhetoric is the primary cause of the spread (pun intended).

Thank goodness someone understands my point.

Then again, this is PPprune, a land where opinionated self serving pilots (and ex-pilots, including yours truly) inhabit and offer robust opinion, debate and argument on all manner of things from world politics and the theory of a universal deity to cooking truffle and goat cheese soufflé’s, to anal bleachings!

If you are going to use an example or analogy, make sure it's valid. Don't just spew opinions based on some thought, that you haven't thought through. I find that some of you are very removed from the reality of one, covid and two what low paid life is really like and are speaking for people you have little connection with. This really shows in your comments, hence why I have added I have friends on both sides of the fence both in big business and in low paid work, both sides are coping fine, but are suffering some stress (for various reasons). It's quite easy to spot what's going on when you actually engage with your community rather than sit and rummage through internet conspiracies about what might be happening to your neighbors. Get out and speak to them it's great for your mental health.

I watched a Psycologist from Cairns on the morning news talking about the effects of Lockdown on Sydney and Melbourne kids and sprouting that Dan is Covering up important information on teenage girls. Now I listened to what he had to say, but surely they could have got one of thousands of child psychologists in Melbourne or Sydney to talk about this, from an actual front line point of view. From an anecdotal point of view our parents group has mentioned a number of young girls who have gone to see the psych this year, because they are struggling with school, mainly bullying when its open, not lockdown. So context to the numbers in our area is nothing to do with lockdown at all, that could be different for different communities, but who knows.

China’s eyeing 50% cuts to their iron ore exports from Australia; about the only thing keeping the national economy afloat at the moment.

Whatever the plan, the deadbeats, misfits and wannabe dictators we’ve somehow elevated to power need to stop bickering and get the hell on with it.

Guys there are many who don't subscribe to the indoctrinated fear prolific poster merchants in here so you are not alone, they just don't spend their entire lives as Govt soldiers:-)
When the draconian laws of the criminals in charge ramp up to the point where food parcels will be delivered then the push back will explode!

NSW are changing the narrative of the current marathon covid press conferences. I can see once 60% or the 70% target being reached Gladys will not report case numbers. It looks we are heading in just reporting vaccination levels and deaths.

Also, is it just me or BH and CMO KC are never in the same room since the inquest few weeks ago almost seems they can’t tolerate each other.

One problem is the dip****s who refuse to acknowledge the existence of the virus.

Another problem is the selfish types who are only looking out for themselves - like the drug dealer from the country who drove to western Sydney, collected his drugs and a dose of Covid, and went back to the regional centres to sell his drugs and hand out a free dose of the disease. With any luck, it will only be the users who catch it, but sadly they will pass it on to the non-users and keep the rounds of lockdowns going.

Spare a crocodile tear for the Internet Influencer (Influenza?) who organises protests and somehow gets paid for it, got arrested 3 times, got bailed 3 times, told police he was homeless and couch surfing when he was really in a luxury hotel, at somebody else's expense. He finally gets caught again, the story unravels, and to poor little thing starts to cry about his misfortune as the conviction is draped around his neck.