MANCHESTER - 8

[The96er]

There is a limit to what will fit in T3 and LX and LH certainly wouldnt I am sure

Which is why MAG would like EZY to move terminals, although I believe EZY are not too keen on moving and are happy where they are even with limited expansion room.

[Mr A Tis]

Only a guess, but I reckon EZY will move to T1, thereby making room for LX & LH to move to T3. The Diamond lounge could then become an exclusive BMI/LX/LH lounge.
Also I would expect KLM to move over to T3 too, to join Air France.
Could even see BA & AA move to T1 to join their one world Finnair / Aer Lingus partners thus making more room for Star Alliance at T3.

[The96er]

Could even see BA & AA move to T1 to join their one world Finnair / Aer Lingus partners thus making more room for Star Alliance at T3.

No chance of that happening. No domestic facilities in T1 plus BA have no desire to give up their lounge, which, even in it's much smaller size, is still one of the best lounges around.

[Bagso]

Going Loco

I'd really stick to trains Mr Loco , unless that is you have been on the sherry which may explain your random responses !

I simply thought it was very odd for MAG to go after an airline that it fell out with, a little over 12 months ago, I was merely looking for some observations as to what other readers think..... your responses however are a complete work of fiction !

But why does it need a massive amount of aircraft?
Well you may think otherwise, but I tend to hold the traditional view that the CEO of an airport will by and large try and encourage more aircraft in /out of an airport and by extention increase profit, I tend to agree with that commonly held principle, although I must confess I have never read "Accountancy For Dummies"
............................BUT it might be worth your while picking up a copy !


You always fail to provide a business view of these ideas
..er well that's a new one on me, I wasnt aware I had even mentioned this topic before nor as far as I am aware generated any "related business ideas" on the forum but thanks for the kudos anyway !

obsessed by judging the airport in terms of passenger numbers regardless of the impact on other carriers at MAN, e.g. Jet2 and other airports in the North to whom you seem to have nothing but contempt.
Why do some people who read these postings sometimes have a complete and total inability to comprehend what has been posted.

Do keep up its so frustrating.

At no point did I actually suggest it was good thing or a bad thing, I simply pointed out that it was somewhat unusual that MAG should court an airline that it rejected a little over 12 months ago, especially if nothing more was on offer than a sprinking of routes already served in the main by Manchesters current loyal customers. I actually thought it was somewhat ironic and was curious as to why they would do this and interested to canvass opinion from other posters ?

.... quite where I mentioned my contempt for other airports is beyond me unless providing a factual geographical position report of where these cities/airports are located in relation to Manchester counts as such !

Manchester is indeed at the epicentre of the North Of England with excellent car and train connections to all major cities and towns, if I was the CEO at MAG I would be selling that concept to RYR !

If that makes me contemptuous so be it !

I thought the airport is owned by local govt in Gtr Man so its job is to serve the demand generated by the people who own it - anything above that is a bonus

Again no idea what your point is ?

Can we stick to responding to the arguments laid out originally rather than spin off trying to second guess my own opinion !

[Bagso]

Quite agree with you in this instance Alvechurch, I am at a loss as to why MAG would go down this route and upset customers and routes already in place if "indeed" it is true they instigated the contact as reported !

Manchester has lost 6m plus+ pax , it is desparate to get those pax back but why would you jeapordise relationships already in place and prostitute yourself to RYR ?

I just think it is really peculiar, unless there is more to the story and even then would you trust them ?

Not sure !

[The96er]

Quite agree with you in this instance Alvechurch, I am at a loss as to why MAG would go down this route and upset customers and routes already in place

Is this not what easyjet have been doing - jumping on established routes.
Out of interest, who said it was MAG that approached RYR and not the other way around.

[TSR2]

Manchester has lost 6m plus+ pax

I don't think this is correct.

From a peak of 22,442,855 in 2006 to 17,664,708 in 2010, I make that a loss of 4,778,147 passengers. Not good but certainly nowhere near 6m plus.

[Going loco]

Bagso - you are someone who has taken up plenty of bandwidth on here talking about things as inane as whether Manchester is a regional city or a provincial city or some such nonsense. It doesn't need much second guessing to work out that your posts are more fanboy than they are airline or airport manager.

Pehaps if you'd read airport management for dummies, you'd know that just like the airlines, passenger yield is just as important as volume. So tell me, is it better for MAN to have 18m passengers at £10 per pax profit or 25m passengers at £5 per pax profit.

[MAN777]

Going Loco

Couldnt do the maths in my head (as i am a bit thick) so reached for the calculator and yes 18m at £10 is much better.

BUT i dont think its as simple as that, what about all the revenue from car parking, shopping and meals that Ryanair will generate, MAG will take a hefty percentage off the concessionaires they also take a slice of the Jet A1 sales.

Cant be bothered trying to calculate the figures but I bet its huge.

[Jamie2k9]

Ryanair passengers wont be doing much shopping unless they are going to pay to bring it with them.

[easyflyer83]

Easyjet aren't necassarilly "happy" with limited space in T3. They weren't particularly happy at the fact AF moved over. They are however happy with the crew room/office facilities in Olympic House and whilst discussions were had regarding change of terminals (terminal 2 was last rumoured), things have gone quiet.

[bar none]

There may be some more room soon in T3 if American Airlines continue with their pricing policy.
Looking at random Man Jfk flights in June, it is considerably cheaper to fly via Lhr than to use the direct flight.
Before anybody says that it costs more to use a non stop flight, I bet it doesn`t apply in reverse i.e. I bet it is not cheaper for a Lhr passenger to go via Man than to use a Lhr Jfk non stop.

I have not looked at Man Chicago flights but I bet that the same principle applies.

[Ian Brooks]

It`s probably because the flights are doing well, it only when a flight is not selling well that they lower the fares to entice people


Ian B

[wingeel]

Ian's probably right. I was lucky enough to get a low fare going out in May by booking back in September. If AA are filling the flight, then good. Good luck in your search for a decent fare, Bar None.

[pwalhx]

Would be interesting to compare CO's prices at the same time.

[MUFC_fan]

Would be interesting to compare CO's prices at the same time.


Maybe...maybe not.

They operate these routes not only to serve NYC but also other destinations throughout North and South America.

[OltonPete]

Bringing the start forward to February - Monday & Friday per the press release!!!!!!

Pete

[lasernigel]

Went out of MAN last week to Dusseldorf gate 8. RYR was out of Gate 7. Was hilarious to see the antics of ground staff going through all the so called carry on baggage, which btw I do believe in limiting it. No change for customers and going around asking if anyone had two fivers for a ten all the time.
That leg of T1 is far too narrow when flights are leaving from opposite gates, couple that to more passengers trying to get through to gates further down the leg makes it even worse.Limited seating as well.
Manchester is slowly treating SLF as rubbish...it can't go on if it truly wants to survive. Couple that with the walkways being cut back on is moving backwards not forwards.

[Jamie2k9]

Ryanair's Sunday flights to Faro and Alicante have a lather departure time than all other days.

Arrive from ALC - 19:40 depart at 20:05
Arrive from FAO - 19:35 depart at 20:00

[UFGBOY]

Agree ref SLF treatment.. how EK can be happy with Gate 15 for the 380 (and even the 777) is beyond me.. the queues to board and the neanderthal shouts from OCS staff bringing the empty wheelchairs back 'I will run over you if you don't move' are embarassing

[A330ETOPS]

Went out on Ek18 and back on 19 last night

I expected it to be bedlam around there but it was pretty smooth. Are EK going to twice 380? I was talking the the skipper and he seemed to think so






Rob

[pwalhx]

Have to agree when I flew on the A380 before christmas didnt feel it was overcrowded on the pier, in fact thought the organisation was good.

[Hamburg 2K8]

I hear it's usually ok for the A380 EK service as not many flights are departing arriving at Pier B at the same time, not sure about the 777 service. I wish they would hurry up with the new Pier B, but suppose that will be after the new ATC tower is bulit?

So nearly a month in, how's the re-surfacing on 23R/05L going? I'm off to Tenerife in March, land back in MAN on Thursday 31st March about 2AM hoping to be landing on 23L, never done that one before.

[roverman]

Runway rehabilitation project is presently installing the HV ring main which will feed the new lighting system, and building the substation to power it beside the radar tower near the road tunnels. Installation of new runway/approach lights begins in May, with new surface in June/July.

MAN canvassed pilot opinion on the preferred layout for the replacement approach lighting last year. This came out overwhelmingly in favour of retaining the 5-crossbar 'Calvert' system over the more common (worldwide) 2-crossbar ICAO standard system.

05R/23L will see plenty of use overnight this year, and we await CAA approval of the GNSS (P-RNAV) approach to 23L which will supplement the VOR/DME procedure. L.E.D. runway centreline lights are also to be trialled on 23L over the next few weeks, and if successful will be adopted in the re-lighting of 05L/23R.

[Bagso]

Going Loco - at least my bandwidth occasionally has some relevance !

Please at least support your criticism with something worth debating !

My comments re Manchester being a regional city or a provincial city is totally irrelevant in the context of the re introduction of RYR service at Manchester so what exactly is your point ?

The only observation that came close to being a serious comment in your last posting simply comfirmed a limited approach to factual debate...

"is it better for MAN to have 18m passengers at £10 per pax profit or 25m passengers at £5 per pax profit" My God what a stupid, stupid question !

I would go for a stroll, suck a Wurthers and pop back when you have something factual to say which makes a positive or indeed negative contribution to the thread. At least we we can then argue the points seriously !

[PQC]

Roverman - very detailed knowledge.

Methinks you are close to the action!

Could be some interesting arrivals to watch on 23L in the early hours of the summer months!

[kdhurst380]

Surely the CAA would have something to say about not using the Calvert system that is UK standard, if the scenario were that MAG in their almighty wisdom decided to use it...?

I could be wrong of course, it might not be a solid regulation but every other major airport in the UK uses it so I assumed it would be.

[Manchester Kurt]

http://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/manweb.nsf/alldocs/5D479A0AF901E07A8025782B004E7E71/$File/January10.pdf

Up by 5.48% in Jan 2011.

[Ian Brooks]

That`s more like it, lets hope these figures are sustainedhttp://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif


Ian B

[Manchester Kurt]

It snowed, a lot, in Jan 2010.

[roverman]

kdhurst380,

Although the UK has its own standards for aerodrome characteristics (CAP 168) these are based on ICAO Annex 14 with a few differences, of which the Calvert system is one. The CAA cannot refuse approval to anything which complies with Annex 14, although may ask the aerodrome operator to justify the difference through a safety case/ aeronautical study. This will increasingly be the case as we move to EASA certification of aerodrome standards. MAN considered the options for approach lighting, there are benefits with both, and ultimately acted on customer preference.

[Manchester Kurt]

FWIW - to take the snow of Jan 2010 out of the equation, in Jan 2009 MAN dealt with 1,191,340 passengers and in Jan 2008 it was 1,329,326.

[Ian Brooks]

It snowed a lot in December also last year and pax were still up so I guess
figures still quite good

Ian B

[JackRalston]

My Dad flew out on the A380 on 8th January and he said there were no problems what so ever, no overcrowding and everything ran smoothly.

[Suzeman]

Bagso

Going back several pages, I agree that we will have to differ on MAG's approach to making their business public.

But just to reassure you that something is going on, I am told that there was an article in a recent Plane Talk noting that t'management had been to see Theresa Villiers (Ministress of Planes) a few times to discuss matters of interest. It also said how impressed she was with Manchester, but little else.

And here is a link to an article in the MEN at the weekend about APD

Airport lobbies against departure tax increase - Manchester Evening News (http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/business/s/1406741_airport_lobbies_against_departure_tax_increase)


As for FR, I'm sure the Airport considered the impact on other airlines before doing the deal. They certainly did in the early days of lo-cos and didn't embrace them - which became the subject of a lot of criticsm here and elsewhere. If EZY had been thinking of MAD, I would have hoped that they shared their aspirations with the Airport first. But at the end of the day the Airport have a business to run and you can't please everyone all the time. And of course it sustains debate by all of us armchair experts who don't know the full picture :ooh:

Personally I believe MO'Ls talk of a base at MAN is all hot air but it makes good headlines of course. Just look at how volatile the airline is, developing bases and then moving out in a relatively short period. Don't think MAN would want that; better to develop sustainable routes and services and look after all the customer airlines as best you can.

With FR on T2, I assume the inbound DUB pax will have to use the corridor used originally when they were in T2 to avoid the Border Control passport control?

Will the other flights use the main terminal stands with pax walking up and down the stairs (only one airbridge so destroys the quick turnaround times), or will the pax be bussed from/to remote stands? I assume a combination of both depending on what else is around?

Suzeman

[Jamie2k9]

Both Ryanair and Easyjet operated Liverpool - Madrid for a while then FR dropped it as loads were poor. Will flying MAN - MAD make a big difference?

[wanna_be_there]

I wonder if the recent move by Ryanair to serve MAN-MAD will spur easyjet to operate MAN-MAD anyway?
They have had the whole north-west market share at LPL to themselves for a good few years now, and I doubt they will want those loads to be lost to Ryanair.
With Ryanair only 4 weekly, Im sure there is scope for a carrier to operate a daily shedule (Easy 7 weekly Ryanair 4 weekly), or, if the ryanair base does ever come to fruitition, they will add to the schedule with a MAN based frame?

[Jamie2k9]

If Easyjet did operate MAD daily from MAN then you can be sure FR would up it to daily as well.

[Betablockeruk]

YouTube - New Manchester Airport Air Traffic Control Tower (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL5__bUwX_I)

"near the fire station". Something's got to go?

[Will_McKenzie]

betablockeruk, nothing is moving, there is a huge area of grass between the fire station and the entrance to the hangars where the tower is going to be

[The96er]

betablockeruk, nothing is moving, there is a huge area of grass between the fire station and the entrance to the hangars where the tower is going to be

If you look on Google earth, that area of green grass you mention is not actually that large. Any construction there could cause wingtip clearance issues.

[MAN777]

I dont know why we are questioning the placement of the new tower, do you honestly thing MAG would spend millions on a project that is going to cause wingtip problems, I dont think so !

I think its fantastic news that the airport is once again looking forward and investing in the future, all we need now is the new runway finishing off with a complete taxiway system.

[The96er]

do you honestly think MAG would spend millions on a project that is going to cause wingtip problems

Obviously, but take a look for yourself, the grass area at the entrance would no be sufficient to construct a tower and maintain wingtip clearances of widebodies entering the hanger area. As I understood the plan a few years ago, it was mentioned at the time that the new tower would be on the site of the fire station with a new station built elsewhere.

[Betablockeruk]

do you honestly think MAG would spend millions on a project that is going to cause wingtip problems

Deja Vu? Wasn't this the discussion that went well overboard re the A380 wing vs The Airport Hotel (pub near 23R threshold)?

MAG got that right too.

Also of interest was the comment "in the longer term future it [the old building] might not be here" Must have some plans in mind.

[PQC]

The MAN thread is silent for 3 days!!

What is it with all you MAN critics / fans?

Surely you don't want the MAN thread to reach page 3 of the postings table?

[Betablockeruk]

Think everything has been said, what there is to say, about Manchester vs London. ;)

It's gone very quiet re long haul development. Are all the airlines waiting for the Govs APD decision?

A few airlines are making political manoeuvring statements, such as Emirates: Airport lobbies against departure tax increase | Manchester Evening News - menmedia.co.uk (http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/business/s/1406741_airport_lobbies_against_departure_tax_increase)

[roverman]

It's rarely quiet at MAN, although the airfield has been deathly at times off-peak over the last 2-3 years.

All that is about to change. MAN is back off the ropes, punching heavyweight, and making the headlines for the right reasons. Three consecutive months of traffic growth, and Summer 2011 slots up 12% on last year even after the handback and before the RYR announcement. At least one EU flag carrier is coming back this year (TAP), with others showing interest.

The right airport, in the right location, with the right surface access, offering the right choice of services. Profiitable, growing, British-owned, publicly owned.

[mickyman]

er......somebody get a dark room for roverman please!

MM

[mytravela330]

Roverman, who are the other EU flag carriers showing interest in MAN??

[roverman]

mytravela330,

Austrian had slots in for VIE, and so did Baltic Air until the handback. Perhaps next year. More than new entrants, I expect MAN to see growth from established 'full service' carriers, both near and far.

[mytravela330]

thats only 2 flag carriers, but one will be 2012, so in fairness its only one, thought we were talking about a handful.....lol

[roverman]

There may be more. :) Allow me a little artistic licence, MAN is suddenly an exciting place to be again.

[mytravela330]

working for Menzies i get to find out a bit of info, i here EVA want to start a cargo service, FEDEX are in talks about bringing the MD11 back, but not given a start date as yet, so that could be another 12 months away..... Virgin might base 2 A330s when they take delivery of them..... and maybe there could be a CX pax service starting this october, but we will have to wait and see on that one.....

[wanna_be_there]

Fedex- I hear they want to come back as USA freight is picking up big time at MAN. Ive heard either EWR or MEM could be the destination.

Virgin- Im sure Ive read that they are only now taking delivery of 2 A333, with the others going off to china. With 1 based at MAN, the other at LGW/GLA, I doubt we will be seeing 2 of them here.

EVA- Probably will come when the new summer timetables change over in March. They dont require the mass of publicity and forward selling time that pax services do.

Cathay- Although I am hopeful, I am beggining to think they will always 'be comming back to MAN soon'

[mytravela330]

is there anymore update on the warehouse that FEDEX want to build down Hasty lane?

[spannersatcx]

Both VS 330's will be at MAN for the first month, then 1 goes off to LGW.

[Skipness One Echo]

Both VS 330's will be at MAN for the first month, then 1 goes off to LGW

Is this last minute change of plan? Going from 10 B744s to 10 A333s is something of a drop in capacity, seeing as the first month also includes the Easter break. Was still being sold last week as 1 B744 and 1 A333. Looks rather like VS are winging it yet again.

[spannersatcx]

No they will both be there 1 flys 1 day the other the next day, just alternating them. it will be 7 330 flts a week and 7 744 a week.

(I guess I didn't write it that well, the question was I doubt we'll see both, technically you will but only one in the air at a time).:ok:

[LBIA]

So by looking at the linked picture taken in Toulouse I dont think its going to be to long until the first A330 (G-VSXY) for Virgin is heading MAN's way.

Photos: Airbus A330-343X Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/photo/Virgin-Atlantic-Airways/Airbus-A330-343X/1862967/M/)

Nice looking aircraft by way!

[Jamie2k9]

Ryanair adding an extra 3 weekly flights to ALC. (extra flights on sale tomorrow)
Jet2 are also adding an extra 2 weekly flights to ALC.

[wanna_be_there]

Good to see a route increasing so soon after they announced it!

Now, if only we could get MAD up to daily....

[wanna_be_there]

and hot on the heels of the MAN-ALC expansion, Ryanair are adding a 5 weekly PMI:

Ryanair Adds To Its Manchester Network :: Routesonline (http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/99872/ryanair-adds-to-its-manchester-network/)

[GnRdL]

And I guess that it will be operated with an aircraft coming from Alicante, as Alicante - Palma de Mallorca also increases 5 times/week.

[wanna_be_there]

Its hard to say until the times are published. At this stage, it may be co-incidental as PMI is also a base.

[GLENO]

.........Ryanair adding flights so soon!!.:D..........Let the battle commence!!..............

[Jamie2k9]

By added the above services they will meet there 600,000 passengers. Ryanair do this with all airports. A Palma base has long been on the cards and it's only a matter of time before it opens. I would expect Malaga to be added next.

PMI will most lightly be operated by ALC based aircraft. That would justify the 10 a/c for ALC and the increased flights to Leeds, Stansted etc.

[compton3bravo]

Correct me if I man wrong Jamie but I thought Ryanair had a base at Malaga. They are now the largest operator at the airport re number of passengers, and seem to have a number of aircraft parked overnight. Your comments please sir.
On another point it will be interesting to see if all the extra flights now put on sale to various parts of Spain and its islands from the UK will cause over capacity on the routes and will result in some very cheap fares. Plus the boarding card issue is still to be resolved. The regional government here in Andalusia do not pussy foot around I can tell you which may surprise some people.

[Jamie2k9]

Ryanair have 4 a/c based in Malaga but I ment Palma as a new base.

I think it's only a matter of time before Malaga as a route is added.

ALC will be daily with 2 flights on Fri and Sat. (error with the extra flights on FRI and SAT - inbound times should be changed tomorrow)
PMI - everyday except MON and FRI.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

PIA709 from LHE and PIA701 from ISB are both showing as cancelled on Manchester arrivals today. This is due to the ongoing strike at PIA which began on Tuesday. Staff are calling for the sacking of Managing Director Aijaz Haroon, and for the abandonment of the proposed codeshare / partnership with THY Turkish Airlines. This has the makings of a lengthy and damaging dispute.

Air Blue is operating normally; ABQ220 is showing on time from Islamabad this evening.

[DomyDom]

Some talk around christmas regarding WW to SFX and OS to Vienna. Anybody know whether these are likely to come off soon? Thanks, DomyDom

[aidoair]

Some talk around christmas regarding WW to SFX and OS to Vienna. Anybody know whether these are likely to come off soon? Thanks, DomyDom


If bmibaby are wanting to go on the SXF route, they need to do it fast. They just keep on letting other airlines stealing their chances, in this case most likely EZY would most likely take up the route.
In my opinion it's not going to happen anytime soon. From what has been said directly from bmibabys MD, ''no further routes will be added this summer... no further expansion (in terms of A/C) until atleast summer 2012'' would mean a reduction in frequency or a culling of another route. :=

[wanna_be_there]

The baby route to SXF is a weird one. German slots show baby applied for MAN-SXF, they were accepted and released, but I spoke to someone from bmi baby last week and they denied they even applied for slots and had no interest in the route?!?!

I've heard another airline is looking at the route now, so bmi baby looks like it may be about to loose out again.

On another note, it seems PK to JFK is here to stay as the TK looks to be off

[Mr A Tis]

Don't know where the OS VIE rumour started, but when I contacted Austrian only last year, they made it clear they had no plans to return to MAN.
If anything, it maybe another opportunity for BMI, similar to the BSL set up (?)

[Droghwings]

I find it very difficult to believe that Man cannot support a daily flight to Madrid. Dublin has up to 4 daily with EI, IB and FR. Manchester and its catchment area have a much bigger population than Dublin. Maybe given the BA/IB merger, IB might begin a service which could tap into the transfer market to the Americas and Africa??

[Mr A Tis]

Droghwings

Manchester could possibly support a daily Madrid IF Easyjet weren't flying 10 times a week from Liverpool.
With the 4 RYR flights from MAN = 14 flights a week from MAN/LPL more than covers it.
As for South America connections the new TAP service to LIS has that covered.
BA/IB not interested in the UK regions.

[Ringwayman]

You look at the TP website, and it's got the MAN route with connections to USA, Africa and Brazil. Not South America. If you want South America covered, you'd be looking for a joint IB/BA service to MAD using 50 to 70 seat aircraft. Besides, I can't see that they'd be willing to let MAN be a pretty big spoke for Star Alliance carriers with limited oneworld coverage.

There's no reason to suspect that FR and U2 can't co-exist on MAN-MAD as they'd be after slightly differing markets.

[Mr A Tis]

...and there was me thinking Brazil was in South America..........:ugh:

[Ringwayman]

Yes, TP is good at getting you to a part of South America.

But I haven't seen Lima displaced into Brazil or Santiago or Buenos Aires etc. Have you tried booking a MAN-Buenos Aires service via the TP website? It's not showing as a connection.

[Skipness One Echo]

BA/IB not interested in the UK regions.

Too simplistic. BA need the regions from ABZ/EDI/GLA/NCL and points European to help feed long haul at their main hub. Their would be no profits without the loss making short haul routes, however odd that sounds.
With MAD as the second BA/IB hub, there is no reason to suspect tha given a business case for enough feed that it would not become a focus over time to serve UK points beyond LHR.

BA are not interested in regions point to point. I'm sure I've mentioned this....

[andy mach 1]

Lisbon and TAP are great to connect you to 8 cities in Brazil. The only other South American city to appear on the Lisbon airport timetable online is a 2x week TAP to Caracas, even then 1 goes via Funchal. Obvious links from previous colonial day when Brazil was part of the Portuguese empire, while virtually the rest of South America (vice Guyana, French Guiana and Surinam) came under the Spanish colonies. Hence Madrid will be better for the rest of the continent.

[Manchester Kurt]

CAA provisional figurres putting Jan 2011 up 6.3% on the very snowy Jan 2010.

Wasn't the ash cloud in Feb so we can expect a large rise next month as well?

[lexxity]

ash cloud was april.

[Hamburg 2K8]

Seems there's a few flights cancelled tonight as I've just noticed on the MAN arrivals board. Stockholm, LHR, HAM & DUS is what I can see, am I missing something?

[Ian Brooks]

problems with Scottish ATC

Ian

[Hamburg 2K8]

What's up with them? Bring back Manchester control! Is it a coincidence that 2 flights are orginating from Germany? Why are certain flights cancelled and others normal?

[sam1993]

BBC News - Air traffic control problems delay UK flights (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12470611)

[Mr A Tis]

Was an ATC problem yesterday, looks like it is resolved.
Also there was a thread on it in SLF ( why it was removed from R & N I don't know)

http://www.pprune.org/passengers-slf-self-loading-freight/442855-uk-airspace-closure-2011-feb-15-a.html

[Ringwayman]

Very large increase in pax numbers for Lufthansa last year - around 20% to 645,000 (imagine what it would have been like with no problems affecting them!). Will be interesting to see what will happen this year as continued growth like that will result in either more routes or bigger aircraft - what price bmi not having the "right" equipment in the appropriate configuraton for the Frankfurt route. 60% of their pax are connecting with Warsaw, Moscow, Vienna and Jeddah being listed as having good numbers. The UK as a whole saw a 12% increase in pax numbers with BHX being over 13%.

[Mr A Tis]

With Lufthansa doing so well, it's difficult to understand why they downgraded the FRA from A320/1 s to B735s for the winter.
I know it's going back to A320 (BMI) in March, but that doesn't give any expansion options, unless they increase the frequency.
I think the BMI A320 would have been better served on a direct VIE route in co op with Austrian & the FRA left to Luftie who could vary the equipment on a daily basis.
I guess Herr Franz knows what he's doing though :-)

[Suzeman]

With Lufthansa doing so well, it's difficult to understand why they downgraded the FRA from A320/1 s to B735s for the winter.


Er No. Usually the following
The overnighting aircraft is an A319/320
The breakfast time flight is a B735
The lunchtime flight is an A321
The teatime flight is an A319/320

LH do vary the types on a day to day basis according to demand but this seems to be the weekday pattern this winter. So little capacity increase this summer with the BD A320 on 3 flights and a LH 737 on the other

Suzeman

[Mr A Tis]

Ah its changed again then. In Nov & Dec I was using LH to/from FRA alot, & all but the overnighter were B733/B735s.
Kind of makes my point though, that the BMI A320 will lose their flexibility on this busy route.

[easyflyer83]

Not really. If anything, using the BD 320 will mean that they have opted for the larger aircraft for the majority of the rotations.

[MUFC_fan]

Not really. If anything, using the BD 320 will mean that they have opted for the larger aircraft for the majority of the rotations.


True but I think he was meaning that for the airline it is less revenue and profit effective.

For example, LH could have 120y+5C booked on a flight for which it would suit the Boeing jets more than an A320 as it would maximise the seating capacity much more. Also, if there was demand for say 150Y+10C (again, numbers out of my head), the A321 would be more appropriate. The same works for cargo.

This way the airline is fixed with up to 162 (all Y) seats and a set cargo limit.

Just my interpretation anyway.

[Skipness One Echo]

Balanced against BD pilot and CC rates versus German based Lufthansa mainline I wonder if that's the gain?

[MUFC_fan]

Balanced against BD pilot and CC rates versus German based Lufthansa mainline I wonder if that's the gain?


It would certainly cut down on overnighting costs.

Obviously it also then allows for the other aircraft that would have operated the routes to open up new destinations or retire an ageing aircraft...

[easyflyer83]

True but I think he was meaning that for the airline it is less revenue and profit effective.

For example, LH could have 120y+5C booked on a flight for which it would suit the Boeing jets more than an A320 as it would maximise the seating capacity much more. Also, if there was demand for say 150Y+10C (again, numbers out of my head), the A321 would be more appropriate. The same works for cargo.

This way the airline is fixed with up to 162 (all Y) seats and a set cargo limit.

Just my interpretation anyway.

But that relies on other routes and often it only works when the scenario's of 2 or more routes match. Sure, the flexibility is a good thing but it's only one side of the story and if the LH aircraft is needed somewhere else or if there are cost savings by using the bmi (and i'm not talking nightstops-this is often insignificant) then LH management must see it as outweighing said flexibility.

[vpcaptain]

Qatar has just published double daily Manchester / Doha from 1st June.

would be good if it was the B777, but unlikely

Vpcaptain

[Mr A Tis]

From June 1st : Daily


Qatar Airways (QR042)
Dep : 10:00 - Manchester (MAN)
Arr : 19:00 - Doha (DOH)
Equipment : Airbus Industrie A330-200

Qatar Airways (QR046)
Dep : 14:55 - Manchester (MAN)
Arr : 23:55 - Doha (DOH)
Equipment : Airbus Industrie A330-200

[wanna_be_there]

Fab news, although I'm lead to believe DOH-LGW is being canx to allow this growth

[MUFC_fan]

Good year for MAN! And we're only in February...

[Suzeman]

This way the airline is fixed with up to 162 (all Y) seats and a set cargo limit.

Don't think that all Y seats is correct.

The LH site will let me book Business fares on the bmiflights to FRA - and having used these flights on numerous occasions in the last 12 months in Business, it has always been fairly full if not completely so. It would be madness for LH not to offer business class on these flights and would drive high yielding traffic to find other hubs.

I understood that one A320 (G-MIDS?) has had or is undergoing cabin mods to make it consistent with LH's product and this aircraft will be used from on the FRA route from MAN.

Suzeman

[Suzeman]

Fab news, although I'm lead to believe DOH-LGW is being canx to allow this growth


Good news indeed for MAN and is now bookable.

However LGW-DOH is still bookable for June and the rest of the summer at present

Suzeman

[GavinC]

Surely not long before Qatar build a lounge at MAN as their main rivals both now have lounges. However, as they are the odd one out being based T2, might we see a terminal switch first?

[NorthernCounties]

Rumours of a route to LDY with BE are rampant at the moment... early negiotation stage at the moment mind.

[MUFC_fan]

Don't think that all Y seats is correct.

The LH site will let me book Business fares on the bmiflights to FRA - and having used these flights on numerous occasions in the last 12 months in Business, it has always been fairly full if not completely so. It would be madness for LH not to offer business class on these flights and would drive high yielding traffic to find other hubs.


"This way the airline is fixed with up to 162 (all Y) seats and a set cargo limit."

[Suzeman]

MUFC

Your use of (all Y) in your message could be interpreted as meaning that this was all the aircraft was offering.

For those of us who don't know configurations, if there are 162Y seats on offer on this A320, how many C does that allow?

Suzeman

[goldeneye]

According to QR's website, both flights are being operated by A330-200's.

QR41 DOH 01:50 MAN 07:30 / QR42 MAN 10:00 DOH 19:00
QR45 DOH 07:45 MAN 13:25 / QR46 MAN 14:55 DOH 23:55

[MUFC_fan]

SeatGuru Seat Map bmi Airbus A320-200 Vers. 1 (320) (http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/BMI/BMI_Airbus_A320.php)

Sorry should have been more clear.

The aircraft can accommodate 162 seats in all Y and 0 C as they offer 31" legroom as opposed to 28" by Wizzair etc.

Obviously if it's fit out with Lufthansa config. then it'll probably end up like this:

SeatGuru Seat Map Lufthansa Airbus A320-200 (320) (http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Lufthansa/Lufthansa_Airbus_A320-200.php)

[Suzeman]

MUFC

Thanks for the clarification and the link to that interesting website.

Suzeman

[Suzeman]

Link below to the Qatar Airways press release about the double daily to MAN :ok:

Qatar Airways' Manchester Route Goes Double Daily | Qatar Airways Press Release (http://www.qatarairways.com/global/en/newsroom/archive/PressRelease1_22Feb11.html)

Suzeman

[MUFC_fan]

When you think about it, it's truly ridiculous that MAN should be able to sustain:

EK: 1x77W; 1x A380 (could be twice daily by year end!)
QR: 2x A332
EY: 10x weekly with whatever aircraft they're throwing at it.

Add that to the BA, KL, LH, AF etc connections available going East it just shouldn't happen.

Glad it is though...:O

[pwalhx]

I am so sorry I fail to see anything ridiculous about it at all.

[682ft AMSL]

Other than KLM, there's precious little in the way of connecting options from anywhere else along the M62 corridor so I suppose if you look at as serving the market from Leeds/Liverpool/Bradford/Sheffield/Hull in addition to Gtr Manchester, it's not too surprising.

[wanna_be_there]

And don't forget EY will be double daily too this winter, already confirmed by James Hogan (CEO)

[roverman]

......and don't forget SQ daily B773 to SIN, albeit shared with MUC. Etihad are clearly building toward 2 daily also, having invested in a smart new lounge.
There is indeed a slug of capacity going East out of MAN, and there are likely to be losers somewhere. But where? From MAN's viewpoint the losers will best be LHR and perhaps certain EU hubs who currently benefit from traffic originating in northern England. If spread around a bit this should not lead to loss of important hub frequencies ex-MAN, and also avoid a blood-bath between the Asian giants. LHR is already showing a weakening share of the northern England market, with bmi drastically cutting capacity on MAN-LHR.

Could the same boom happen going west, on the Atlantic? Ultimately a smaller market than going East, but here MAN does have one distinct advantage - you don't overfly any hubs between MAN and North America. Below Us Only Sea. Imagine.

[OltonPete]

ETIHAD FY2011/12 Planned operation changes: Update 3 AIRLINE ROUTE (http://airlineroute.net/2011/02/22/ey-2011-update3/#more-30114)

Etihad staying 10 weekly per the above.

However the site quoted basically just takes information from GDS
and there is plenty of time for this to change.

Pete

[Skipness One Echo]

Could the same boom happen going west, on the Atlantic? Ultimately a smaller market than going East, but here MAN does have one distinct advantage - you don't overfly any hubs between MAN and North America. Below Us Only Sea. Imagine.

I think MAN has all it's going to get going West to be honest. Add much more and something will give.
Potentially MAN-CLT with US as I doubt DUB-CLT will last given Ireland being a car crash economy right now and they're looking to use the paid for B767s to grow the network until more A332s arrive. CO / UA might see larger equipment on MAN-EWR with the second daily flight to another UA / CO hub. DL have both main hubs covered, AA still aren't year round daily on MAN-ORD and it's still a B757.

The main difference being that the US majors aren't government backed, vanity projects with bottomless money pits like Etihad. For a comparable European city of it's size, MAN has way more direct US traffic than one might expect. Also there is no dominant US carrier with the financial clout of say, Emirates.

[wanna_be_there]

Etihad staying 10 weekly per the above.

However the site quoted basically just takes information from GDS
and there is plenty of time for this to change


As you say, that site only reflects what is in GDS at the time, and EY have confirmed themselves that MAN will be double daily 'by year end', which is more than likely the winter schedule.

Potentially MAN-CLT with US as I doubt DUB-CLT

I would agree. MAN has always been a good station for US, so would not be surprised to see MAN-CLT added in 2012.


AA still aren't year round daily on MAN-ORD and it's still a B757


But one of the very few Euro-ORD routes to stay this winter, so cant be doing that bad for them.

Realistically, going west I could see:

-Air Canada to YYZ, as the competition that made them leave originally has gone, and with MAN-LHR connections dwindling for them, may be persuaded

-UA/CO to ORD, a route that seems to be banded around a lot for them. Maybe a new IAD depending on what they do with the EWR hub.

-US to CLT, as mentioned above.

And thats it really.
Anything else would be a bonus.

[roverman]

Agreed. The US situation is different to the Asian one. There are no aggressively expanding airlines and hubs who can bankroll speculative routes in the same way. Nevertheless, MAN's services by USA carriers have shown remarkable resilience through the tough times. Delta have maintained the JFK over this winter, and AA will go year-round on this route from April. The current offer from the 4 big carriers seems sustainable and could support measured growth as long as it is genuinely new traffic, or market-share taken from LHR / EU hubs.

[MUFC_fan]

Agreed. The US situation is different to the Asian one.


I agree going west we are looking at a very mature market.


There are no aggressively expanding airlines and hubs who can bankroll speculative routes in the same way.


I think this is a general misconception amongst the Middle Eastern carriers. Yes they do have the money to do spectacular things, not least EK, but remember that they are serving a growing demand which they all seem not to be meeting! A+B can't deliver planes quick enough! I don't think what they're doing is 'speculative,' more being able to meet that new demand.


Nevertheless, MAN's services by USA carriers have shown remarkable resilience through the tough times.


I don't think it's that surprising really considering what we had only a few years ago. We had far more traffic going west when the likes of BA/BD were on the scene and the US carriers using larger aircraft. There is always demand for UK-US; mainly to do with business and historical ties. I think that it seemed to fall just before the recession really took hold which really created an odd situation whereby the supply had already been reduced to meet the smaller demand.

I agree I don't think we'll see many more destinations to the US, simply because they're all pushing the 'hub' system more so than ever before. Maybe larger aircraft.

However, I did say a while back that the Boeing 787 will be the new beginning of Manchester - and I stick with that statement!:ok:

[Seljuk22]

Talking about east: Any news/updates on CX HKG-ZRH-MAN starting next winter?

[MUFC_fan]

What happened to AA's new service as well?

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Happy Smiles, Everybody!

WOW! Well, we do appear to have an infectious outbreak of optimism on this thread once again. Other threads are buzzing too. What new services are starting? How much growth will there be? So I guess it is time for me to pitch in again with another healthy dose of gloom and doom (which I annoyingly like to refer to as reality!).

Seriously, I am delighted that MAN has been able to announce additional long-haul services lately. As has been pointed out, the eastbound offerings of EK / EY / QR / SQ are developing positively. On the Atlantic scheduled services, all four US Transatlantic majors are represented at MAN in their own colours, along with Virgin Atlantic on the British side. A modest portfolio of new European schedules have been announced too, including TAP to Lisbon and assorted sunshine destinations by RYR.

Despite the above, I believe the emphasis for MAN (and UK airports generally) must remain focused on the retention of existing business rather than the carefree pursuit of expansion. The pursuit of new tails is great fun, but a successful business must always focus primarily on economic realities. MAN is facing another very difficult year with no sustained upturn in sight.

So why am I reluctant to join the party? (Apart from being a miserable git). Well, TV news reports offer some clues but they don't tell the real story. You will have noted coverage of upheaval across the Arab world, including several key markets for Manchester Airport. More on affected air services later. We are told that after 30 - 40 years of tolerating the vagaries of their respective "Dear Leaders", the downtrodden masses are finally emerging from their shanty towns to demand something called "Democracy". Apparently, it is a panacea which cures all ills and which is at the forefront of polite dinner conversation in every deprived slum. Or perhaps not. No form of government is perfect, but democracy can be disastrous in countries which vote along purely ethnic or tribal lines. One group will dominate indefinitely, another will be oppressed indefinitely. No doubt folks in the dominant group would love "democracy". But in reality, most ordinary bods give little thought to different types of governments, and few would actually be aware of the options. All media spin aside, what exactly is motivating large diverse populations to simultaneous insurrection? Allow me to list ten big reasons for starters:

COMMODITY: PERCENTAGE 12 MONTH PRICE RISE TO 23-02-2011 [F.T.]

OIL [Brent Crude] + 38.1%
CORN + 78.9%
WHEAT + 48.9%
FEEDER CATTLE + 28.04%
LEAN HOGS + 32.36%
COTTON + 126.25%
LUMBER + 19.05%
COPPER + 35.08%
SILVER + 104.61%
PALLADIUM + 206.25%

That's right. The real reason why unrest is surfacing simultaneously in so many countries is that the cost of living is rapidly becoming unaffordable. All countries are subject to the international market price of commodities. However many nasty dictators are ousted because of this, it is naive to suppose that unrest will disappear unless the populace can find a miracle worker to take charge and defeat global food shortages. The nasty dictators primarily stand accused of failing to feed and clothe the masses. Many people will tolerate years of political thuggery and oppression as the norm, but they will not stand by as their kids go hungry. In the West, we must recognize that for as long as the basic essentials of life are priced beyond the means of ordinary citizens, upheaval and instability will remain an issue in poorer societies.

How has this happened? Well, in the wake of the 2008 banking crisis, western governments embarked on an orgy of money-printing ("QE") to bankroll the unfathomably enormous sums required to bail out that elite group of "masters of the universe" bankers. The general public still has no concept of the scale of the sums involved in keeping these "too big to fail" institutions afloat. Now, we are gradually seeing a series of sovereign debt crises as a result ... Iceland, Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Austerity measures imposed to postpone further crises elsewhere. And "QE" ... the effect of which is manifesting itself in soaring global commodities prices as we see above. Whole countries are being priced into poverty and starvation as a result of all this.

"QE" is not the only culprit here, although it is a dominant factor. In terms of corn prices, well-intentioned mandates by unwitting politicians (pandering to the green lobby) require fixed quotas of vehicle fuels to be derived from corn (ethanol) in certain territories. Vehicle fuel demand is now competing with food agencies for the corn harvest. The latter half of 2010 also saw a 'La Nina' climate event which impeded global harvests. The Russian and Ukrainian cereal harvests were decimated (exports curtailed), Australia has suffered devastating floods. There are other examples out there.

So - bottom line - popular unrest is not going away.

TUNISIA [median age of population 29.7 years, youth unemployment 30.4% - BBC] - the Bogeyman Ben Ali has gone!!! (Hurrah!). Will the new guy be able to outmanoeuvre global commodities prices? NO? Will the crowds remain disenchanted? YEP? Outlook for tourism? POOR. Prospects for MAN's planned new TUNISAIR services to Tunis and Enfidha? Anybody know if these are still expected to happen? And the outlook for tour operators' programmes to Tunisia? Cutbacks at best?

EGYPT [median age of population 24 years, youth unemployment 42.8% - BBC] - the Bogeyman Mubarak has gone!!! (Hurrah!). The new guy is the former head of the secret police assisted by the Armed Forces Supreme Council. Lovely. Gatherings have been banned. I'll bet these guys will be real aces at bringing world commodities prices under control. The mob will love 'em. Egypt already has to import 40% of its food requirements to feed its unwieldy population growth, and it has recently become a net importer of oil (disastrous). Tourism is vital to the economy, but many amongst the indigenous population demonstrate open loathing for ("infidel") tourists. Red Sea resorts such as Sharm are effectively gated communities, heavily guarded by the police and military to keep hostiles at bay. Tourist excursions to ancient historic sites are protected by armed guards. And that was before revolution took hold, with westerners viewed as enforcers of the hated Mubarak regime. Outlook for IT programmes to Egypt? You book them if you want to!

LIBYA [median age of population 24.2 years, youth unemployment no stats - BBC]. The Bogeyman of 42 years is just clinging on. If he falls (following civil war?), will the country fracture along tribal lines? Will the new regime be able to control global commodities prices to appease the masses? In view of the atrocities taking place in Libya it seems almost disrespectful to speculate about the future of a scheduled air service, but that is the underlying point of this thread so pardon me if I do allude to it. Prospects for LAA106/7 anybody?

MOROCCO [median age of population 26.5 years, youth unemployment 17.1%]. Established government still in control, but protests calling for reform and strikes are endemic. The government is promising subsidies for key commodities. Will Morocco hold it together? The jury is out. Tour programmes to Morocco anybody?

ALGERIA, JORDAN, SYRIA, YEMEN, IRAN. All troubled to varying degrees. Offline for Manchester Airport services, but unrest in these countries destabilizes the region in general. Note that countries of all political leanings are affected; an unsupportable cost of living is a common enemy.

IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN. Enough said.

BAHRAIN. [median age of population 30.4 years, youth unemployment 19.6% - BBC]. Protests rife, governments promising a "national dialogue". Key US military air and naval bases at stake in Bahrain. Population split along religious lines 30% Sunni ("elite"), 70% Shia ("oppressed"). A very worrying state of affairs here, not least because just across the causeway lies the elephant in the room ...

SAUDI ARABIA. [median age of population 24.9 years, youth unemployment no stats - BBC]. 87-year old King Abdullah and his elderly Crown Prince are both considered to be in poor health. The succession is a source of great international concern. Oil-rich Saudi Arabia is home to certain radical religious elements, including the Wahabi group which spawned Bin Laden and the 9/11 hijackers. Saudi oil reserves are widely accepted to be 40% lower than official figures claim; some key fields are in decline and despite claims to the contrary, Saudi has little ability to increase output. The Saudi regime appeases its population by subsidizing key commodity prices to a generous extent. Nevertheless, this is seen as a repressive regime and it does have internal enemies. Any hint of major demonstrations or upheaval taking hold here will be catastrophic for global oil prices. If Bahrain or Saudi Arabia yield to revolution, airlines watch out!

But ... maybe you are getting the impression that problems exist only in the Arab World. Not so, though they are most widely reported for obvious reasons. South Korea is currently enduring a historic banking panic - 8 banks have closed their doors in recent days; financial institutions are under siege. Only bigger stories coming out of Egypt, Libya and NZ have excluded them from the headlines. Meanwhile, across the border to the north, that nice Mr. Kim is in advanced preparations for a third nuclear test. China is battling inflation. The Communist Party must keep its vast population happy (affordable food) or else. Big time state intervention in Chinese banking too.

Across in the Americas, Communist hero cocaine baron Evo Morales (Bolivia) fled an angry demonstration in Oruro on February 11th as protestors threw dynamite at him. Back in December, he tried to remove crippling government subsidies on gasoline, flour and sugar. He backed down on two of those, but the sugar subsidy was axed. The sugar price has now doubled and the natives are chucking dynamite around. And of course, it goes without saying that chaos continues in Chavez's Venezuela where the currency has just been devalued yet again (inflation 27%). Chavez is at least a colourful character. He distracts attention with his weekly TV show ("Hello President") on which he sings, dances and makes bizarre political speeches. Most recently: "Queen of England, I'm talking to you!" (about the Falklands). And last year he accused the US of causing the Haiti earthquake using a secret weapon.

OK, so lots of trouble around the world with commodities prices fueled by rampant "QE" primarily to blame. High oil prices, lower living standards, geopolitical upheaval. All terrible news for airlines generally.

Here in the UK, much of this passes us by. At least at a conscious level. Our official inflation is quoted as 4%. This will be affected as commodity prices feed through here (and some would argue that the figure is deliberately understated anyway!). However, in the UK only 10% of the average wage is required for food spending; in many countries more than 50% of the average wage goes on food. And in "developed" countries, food prices are distorted by packaging, labour and transportation costs which will rise at different rates than the underlying commodity price. Sophisticated major food companies also hedge their commodity prices by purchasing futures contracts months in advance which smooth out rising costs. But for less developed economies, shock rises in commodity prices quickly become ruinous (as we are seeing on TV).

Back to topic at last! The outlook for Manchester Airport, our regular airlines and the aviation industry generally is still very difficult. We simply can't look at this airport in a little cocoon and disregard global realities. Favoured tourist destinations are in meltdown. Oil prices are soaring, and if Bahrain and Saudi Arabia really kick off ... watch out! Airline customers are finding their disposable incomes squeezed by inflation, debt, recession and austerity measures. The aviation industry generally remains "public enemy number one" for climate change zealots (so was climate ever a constant then?) who urge yet more onerous taxation and disincentives against air travel.

So make the most of those new air service announcements. Let's hope the new services do turn up. And lets hope we can hold on to a good proportion of our existing business. Don't make the assumption that the good times are back just yet. And as for the default 'safe' tourist destinations such as Spain and Greece which stand to benefit from upheaval elsewhere? What's the betting that anti-austerity protests and strikes will have a role to play again this summer? Tourists are such easy prey. Pity poor Thomas Cook and TUI!

Right, over to you lot. I'll just duck for cover!

SHED.

[TSR2]

Bloody hell, Shed must be Cameron in disguise.

[mytravela330]

i wont bother watching the news now, after reading all that...lol

[MMENCLLBAMAN]

Shed - I don't post often on anything, but I don't think anyone could have wrote that better.

The Middle East is a melting pot that is on the brink of a boil that will spill over and scald us all.

Best case scenario is aviation in the region will suffer.

Worst case scenario, the last thing we will be worrying about is aviation.

[MUFC_fan]

Worst case scenario, the last thing we will be worrying about is aviation.


For some of the Middle East - yes; for others not.

Fund Rankings | Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute (http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/)

Look at the major players - most countries that don't even know what 'democracy' means.

Oil is a major player - but there are other commodities in there too and these funds are now investing in other areas to, as people have said, dversify their product.

I doubt we'll see UAE/China's bubble burst. Others are a different story...

[Bagso]

The Middle East is a melting pot that is on the brink of a boil that will spill over and scald us all.

Best case scenario is aviation in the region will suffer.

Worst case scenario, the last thing we will be worrying about is aviation.

well at least "Skating On Ice" is still on !:ok:

[pwalhx]

I am sorry MUFC, Shed's post outlined the issues well in the Middle East, however the issues that face China over the next few years should be equally of concern and not dismissed lightly.

[PQC]

In my view, QR twice daily is fab news for MAN, This, added to the already advertised 10X weekly by EY plus the EK and Singapore flights prove that there is a long-haul market from N England that isn't / doesn't want to route from LHR.

This, added to the onward connections via FRA, AMS, ZRH, CDG etc exposes BA's misguided view that all long haul from the UK has to go from LHR / LGW.

Can they not see that their current policy is just alienating the majority of travellers North of Birmingham?

But, as I suspect, maybe they and BAA just don't care.

Myopic if you ask me, but hey, what do I know?

Across the pond from MAN is different. Again, you get the feeling that if MAN can support long haul to the east, then it should be able to do to the west to places like Boston, Vancouver, Washington, Montreal, Dallas etc.

But these destinations are a subject to a great deal more - dare I say it? - "regulation" than the non Trans Altlantic routes.

It's just good to know that yet again - and despite the cabal against it - MAN continues to grow its business.

[MUFC_fan]

I am sorry MUFC, Shed's post outlined the issues well in the Middle East, however the issues that face China over the next few years should be equally of concern and not dismissed lightly.


What do you mean? I completely agree with Shed. The Arab World crisis is going to cause serious problems but I'm on about economic strategy in two countries: UAE and China. If there was to be an 'uprising' or whatever in either of these two states, especially in UAE they own a significant amount of the world's markets; whether it be oil, corn, buildings, land etc etc. This will still be owned by the state or whatever that may be. Many of those billions are invested in the west where as Shed rightly says, suffers less from food price increases.

Sovereign funds do fail as we have seen - but not those worth in the '000s of billions. Just like banks - they're too big to fail.


In my view, QR twice daily is fab news for MAN, This, added to the already advertised 10X weekly by EY plus the EK and Singapore flights prove that there is a long-haul market from N England that isn't / doesn't want to route from LHR.

This, added to the onward connections via FRA, AMS, ZRH, CDG etc exposes BA's misguided view that all long haul from the UK has to go from LHR / LGW.


Where the hell does BA and LHR come into this?! I'd consider transferring at LHR similar to that of CDG; AMS or FRA - from MAN it is little different!

Why don't we just put LHR in that category of European megaports. Why do we have to single LHR out? It's not spite is it?

[CARNMANORLAD]

Rumours are really rife not just on the forum but in general here in Derry about a BE announcement next week regarding LDY-MAN. Has anyone heard anything at the Manchester end?

[Turtle controller]

Sorry to veer away from the consensus re SHED's post, but all his facts and eloquence then turn into opinion and speculation. There is much contradictory evidence to the effects of QE and a push to democracy could (and should) increase air travel from these regions. The removal of sanctions and trade restrictions to Libya, Iran and so on would benefit aviation for a start. I think SHED admits it is a gloomy outlook he presents and although very well argued, not necessarily the path that will emerge.

[Guest 112233]

Well said Shed. Now re post this on every other airport thread substuting the name of the aerodrome as appropriate - An icy blast of reality injected into pprune - The politico's should be reading this. Turtle yes, but all judgement is subjective in part. Its the old question ? -Is air travel an indicator of ecomomic activity or does it in its self create ecomomic activity. - Hence MAN's success.

Excellent posting

CAT III

[roverman]

Recent developments prove the market demand at MAN for long-haul east and west. Yet MAN still leaks a good deal of market-share, and price is a factor which skews the market. We often hear about MAN long-haul traffic not generating enough revenues, yet the paradox is that long-haul ex-MAN is often expensive to book compared to high-revenue LHR.
Example: A colleague of mine has just booked a trip to Vietnam. Tried to get on SQ ex-MAN, no seats available. EK and EY wanted c.£1500 ex-MAN, and so she ended up on Thai out of LHR for less than £1000. That sort of saving blows all the convenience / loyality to local airport sentiments out of the water. So-called 'low revenue' MAN is top-drawer for the punter. I'm sure the airline economists amongst PPRUNErs will explain.

[MUFC_fan]

Example: A colleague of mine has just booked a trip to Vietnam. Tried to get on SQ ex-MAN, no seats available. EK and EY wanted c.£1500 ex-MAN, and so she ended up on Thai out of LHR for less than £1000. That sort of saving blows all the convenience / loyality to local airport sentiments out of the water. So-called 'low revenue' MAN is top-drawer for the punter. I'm sure the airline economists amongst PPRUNErs will explain.


A perfect example of supply and demand. LHR has dozens of routes going east via dozens of hubs or non-stop. Hence far more supply. It's also the reason why the fares are often similar or less from LHR - more supply from more carriers = more competition = more passenger friendly fares.

Often EK will have higher fares from MAN than LHR.

[brian_dromey]

Across the pond from MAN is different. Again, you get the feeling that if MAN can support long haul to the east, then it should be able to do to the west to places like Boston, Vancouver, Washington, Montreal, Dallas etc.


You are quite right. It is different. The east bound routes are all to massive airline hubs, where traffic gets redistributed to points North, South, East (and a little west). It is much easier to make this kind of network sustainable and that is what we see to the West as well, with the American carriers. I don't believe there would be enough demand for those cities alone to justify daily service on a 'legacy' carrier. The only places with significant service that are not hubs are places with massive leisure demand, like Las Vegas and Orlando.

[Mr A Tis]

Looking to west, I can understand the lack of Vancouver, San Fran & LAX, but I am surprised that Boston has not been re-intoduced as it's a relatively short t/a sector.
With all the woes at Aer Lingus, I am surprised that they don't promote more,their BOS, IAD services via DUB or even originate some from here.

[Jamie2k9]

With all the woes at Aer Lingus, I am surprised that they don't promote more,their BOS, IAD services via DUB or even originate some from here.

IAD was dropped from Dublin due EI problems
BOS is doing quiet well now. EI have added 3 direct weekly flights instead of going via SNN.

[Curious Pax]

A perfect example of supply and demand. LHR has dozens of routes going east via dozens of hubs or non-stop. Hence far more supply. It's also the reason why the fares are often similar or less from LHR - more supply from more carriers = more competition = more passenger friendly fares.

Often EK will have higher fares from MAN than LHR.

True to a degree, but a factor is also that with less capacity from MAN (compared to LHR) the airlines don't have to offer such cheap fares to get decent loads. It will be interesting to see if the picture changes with the planned capacity increases by QR/EY, and the rumoured one from EK.

[roverman]

Back to the topic of ticket prices / revenues. The huge capacity and competition at LHR as compared to MAN doesn't explain why MAN long-hauls have sometimes been cited as poor earners (BA / bmi used this reason to pull routes, as have others) when passengers seem to be paying high prices for tickets as compared to LHR, where revenues and yields are said to be good. Is it because LHR gets more expensive bums on seats at the front end who subsidise the back?

[Shrimps]

BE commence Derry LDY service from 19th May.

Ops 1--4567

Dep MAN 11.20 Arr LDY 12.25
Dep LDY 12.50 Arr MAN 13.55

Presumably a DH8 if it's MAN based.

[AUTOGLIDE]

Back to the topic of ticket prices / revenues. The huge capacity and competition at LHR as compared to MAN doesn't explain why MAN long-hauls have sometimes been cited as poor earners (BA / bmi used this reason to pull routes, as have others) when passengers seem to be paying high prices for tickets as compared to LHR, where revenues and yields are said to be good. Is it because LHR gets more expensive bums on seats at the front end who subsidise the back?


I believe logistics issues/costs of having one or two L/H aircraft, such in terms of supplying crew (in BA's case with that B767 they used for JFK) at MAN and away from the bulk of the airline fleet doesn't help.

[PPRuNe Pop]

Autoglide, has it one!

POLITICS have no place in this thread or on this site and all such have been deleted. And while we are at it one or two of you are riding the edge of broken saddle and we will help you off for a while if this topic is not adhered to. Your choice.

AA&R Mods

[wanna_be_there]

Rumours to suggest RAM are going to announce MAN. They ran a few charters to cassablanca last year, so could be those again, or could be a scheduled route.

[MUFC_fan]

True to a degree, but a factor is also that with less capacity from MAN (compared to LHR) the airlines don't have to offer such cheap fares to get decent loads. It will be interesting to see if the picture changes with the planned capacity increases by QR/EY, and the rumoured one from EK.


Very true - just what I wrote.


Back to the topic of ticket prices / revenues. The huge capacity and competition at LHR as compared to MAN doesn't explain why MAN long-hauls have sometimes been cited as poor earners (BA / bmi used this reason to pull routes, as have others) when passengers seem to be paying high prices for tickets as compared to LHR, where revenues and yields are said to be good. Is it because LHR gets more expensive bums on seats at the front end who subsidise the back?


I think that on long haul, most LHR carriers offer F class therefore revenues are always going to be higher as there is more demand in London for more F destinations. Having said that, MAN now has F on two (currently) of it's long haul carriers so therefore I would assume they're competing effectively with LHR.

Having said that, LHR is a global connection hub. They can make some very nice profits in transferring passengers which I would guess is where the money is to be made.

[AUTOGLIDE]

Autoglide, has it one!

POLITICS have no place in this thread or on this site and all such have been deleted. And while we are at it one or two of you are riding the edge of broken saddle and we will help you off for a while if this topic is not adhered to. Your choice.

AA&R Mods
__________________



Sorry but this post makes no sense. Have no idea what it is supposed to mean. I wasn't dealing with anything about politics.

[easyflyer83]

Autoglide, i think the Mod was agreeing with you.

The second part of the posting was presumably to inform others that there postings are not up to scratch. I'm away in BKK at the moment so I haven't seen those offending posts. JUst a suggestion Pprune Pop, perhaps it might be better to be a bit clearer in your postings as euthenisms/anologies aren't always understood universally....particularly when trying to get across an important point. It also sounded quite aggressive and threatening which i'm sure you didn't intend. Just my point of view mind.

[wanna_be_there]

There's an article in flight global stating Sri lankan are going to serve MAN in 2011. Could be one to watch!

[wanna_be_there]

British Midland are going to operate Basel daily from 17th April, instead of the initial 5 weekly. This means the swiss RJ does not operate on saturdays either.

[Mr A Tis]

Good little move by BMI to "W" pattern with LHR on the Basle. Now if they would only do the same with one of their Vienna services from LHR.........

[wanna_be_there]

Now if they would only do the same with one of their Vienna services from LHR


I think there is scope for a VIE. Doesnt even have to be a LHR 'W' pattern either.
There is now a based A320 of BD at MAN doing FRA for LH, but one of the morning rotations is still conducted by LH, so surely BD could squeeze in a VIE there.

Lauda always did well ex-MAN, and BTS always did well from MAN for NE and V5 (V5 only suspended ops as they decided not to operate a jet fleet). Most pax to BTS went on to VIE with buses/taxis, so surely a daily VIE could work.

[LGW_08R]

The airline has been granted approval for upto 21 weekly flights between UK and Sri Lanka. As per the below article, they currently operate 13 weekly to Heathrow. They would like to add MAN as well as Gatwick in 2011. What do people think they would end up with by the end of the year then?

LHR 13 weekly
LGW 5 weekly + Onwards to Toronto
MAN 3 weekly

Or is that a bit of an overkill? Thoughts....

SriLankan Receieves More Rights to, and 5th Freedom to Canada, via UK - The Networker (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-networker/2011/02/srilankan-receieves-more-rights-to-and-5th-freedom-to-canada-via-uk.html)

[wanna_be_there]

It depends on how the bilateral actually works.

Would the CMB-LGW-YYZ-LGW-CMB be counted as 1 frequency, or will it be 2 frequencies based on CMB-LGW-YYZ (1) then YYZ-LGW-CMB (2)?

Id expect another frequency on LHR to make it 14 weekly, and thus double daily, then 4 for LGW (I think thats what the CEO wanted), then possibly 2 for MAN? Id expect 2 a week direct to CMB would be more than adiquate for MAN, given the smallest aircraft they could use would be the A332.

[LGW_08R]

I would agree that is the most likely which you specify above. It makes sense to but the extra 1 weekly into Heathrow, but the question is why have they not done this already then? Difficult slot time?

Re: the bilateral. It looks like the extra frequencies granted are simply between UK and Sri Lanka, and therefore LGW-YYZ could operate and not affect their allocation of frequencies per the bilateral.

Last point, does the 332 have sufficient legs to do Colombo - Manchester nonstop and if it is to be operated by A330s, where would they come from as they do not have any on order.

8R

[wanna_be_there]

It makes sense to but the extra 1 weekly into Heathrow, but the question is why have they not done this already then? Difficult slot time


Depends on what the old bilateral allowed? may have been for 13 weekly flights. Slots and eqv may be an issue however.


Last point, does the 332 have sufficient legs to do Colombo - Manchester nonstop


The A330-200 should manage MAN-CMB no problem at all.


if it is to be operated by A330s, where would they come from as they do not have any on order


They already have an A330. Just search for 'sri lankan A330 at manchester' into google, and Im sure lots of images will appear. It was at MAN for about a week before it went to UL. They may even have more.

[Ian Brooks]

Before we speculate about number of flights going to X or Y would it not be better to
find out where the Sri Lankan population in the UK live

BBC NEWS | UK | Born Abroad | Sri Lanka (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk/05/born_abroad/countries/html/sri_lanka.stm)

It shows most live in London area with a smaller population spread from West Midlands northward incl Yorkshire so at an estimate I would doubt more than 2 flights a week would be needed from Manchester as I don`t think an A330 fullyloaded would
be able to fly from BHX or LBA but could do EMA

Ian B

[MUFC_fan]

Their A330 config. would laugh at MAN-CMB.

MON fly their cram packed A330s to Goa and Male without fret.

Obviously dependent on cargo (something that MAN seems to excel in), then an A340 may be in order.

Maybe CMB-MAN-YYZ?:eek:

[wanna_be_there]

Maybe CMB-MAN-YYZ


Unlikely, the CEO has already stated he wants CMB-LGW-YYZ.

A 2 weekly A332 is more than sufficient for MAN, and I for one will be watching closely to see if this one comes off.

Any airline brave enough to challenge the soon to be 6 daily flights to the middle east gets Kudos in my book.

[wanna_be_there]

Another news source reporting UL to MAN (and LGW):

News (http://www.nation.lk/2011/02/20/news1.htm)


But, in order to meet the growing passenger demand, the national carrier plans to add seven more flights to England alone by the end of the year on top of 14 that it now flies to Heathrow in London every week. The seven new flights are to Manchester and Gatwick, SriLankan sources said


Also stating the reason is mainly tourism orientated, and not so much local traffic.

[MUFC_fan]

Travel News | Travel News Online | Travel Daily UK (http://www.traveldaily.co.uk/AsiaPacificNews/Detail.aspx?Section=22114)

[wanna_be_there]

Well, confirms what we had seen rumoured anyway.

So, yet another long haul business route lost, lets hope LGW can pull something out of the bag!

[Manchester_Airport]

can anyone help me my friends flying on TCX2684 on the 4th may manchester to izmir returning one week later, does anyone know what size aircraft this will be? or what its down for? thanks

[learjet50]

Re your Question

Ask Thos Cook or Who ever you booked the flight with they will know

Is SIZE Important ?? They all go the same speed and take the same time +/- 5 mins

[Fernanjet]

Silly Question
Re your Question

Ask Thos Cook or Who ever you booked the flight with they will know

Is SIZE Important ?? They all go the same speed and take the same time +/- 5 mins

Why such a vile response to a question from someone wondering what aircraft type their friends are travelling on??

(It's a B757-200 by the way)

[Tight Seat]

learejet50, for a person who says that they are are 61 years old, that was a totally unnecessary reply. For all you know that person might just be a little excited about the upcoming flight.

May I suggest a quick apology.

[Manchester_Airport]

an apology would be good, thanks tightseat and fernjet, obviously some people do have mannors.

[BHX5DME]

Feb Pax – 1,080,484 up 3.11%

Pax 12 months end 28.02.11 – 17,962,445 down 3.15%

Feb Movements – 11,142 up 4.03%

Movements 12 months end 28.02.11 – 160,491 down 4.96%

Feb Freight - 7,567 down 6.29%

Freight 12 months end 28.02.11 – 117,215 up 10.91%

[CARNMANORLAD]

BHX5DME how have you got PAX numbers so quickly, have other airports been released yet?

[TravelLeader]

Hi Guys.....been a reader for a long time now, but decided to finally put fingers to keyboard....thought this might have been on here already....and forgive me if I`ve missed it....but Etihad have announced today that they will also go Double Daily from MAN commencing August 1st.

[wanna_be_there]

Hi Travelleader,

Etihad are actually 10 weekly from Aug 1st, and said that they will be double daily 'by year end'.

This was announced back in January, unless you have seen another source to say Double daily on Aug 1st?

[TravelLeader]

Hi Wanna-be-there

Yes that was indeed their plan, but I think that recent QR announcement has made a change of plan happen in AUH.

Had presentation from EY themselves today and the announcement was only given to the staff this morning

[Manchester Kurt]

Manchester figures always come out 2 or 3 days into the next month.

They tend to be slight underestimates compared to the CAA.

http://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/manweb.nsf/Content/TrafficStatisticsArchive

[salsoul]

Hi Guys,

Another long time reader new poster. I was hoping to draw on your knowledge as to whether the following could be a possibility.

I travel a lot for business, usually between our offices in Manchester, Amsterdam and Barcelona. Manchester to Amsterdam and Amsterdam to Barcelona are always fine, but the weak link for me has always been Manchester to Barcelona.

I was wondering what you think the possibility of Ryanair launching the route anytime soon is. Reason I ask is the only direct flight at the moment is with Monarch which usually has relatively high fares, and for 6 months of the year only 3days a week. I know that with the dispute with Girona they have reduced frequency from Liverpool, and when Ryanair used to have a larger presence at Manchester they also flew to Girona.

Maybe it is just my wishful thinking, but surely MAN-BCN fits in with their move towards flying from/to major airports, and they could easily undercut Monarch on the route.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts!

[wanna_be_there]

Ok, thanks for info traveleader. Dont suppose you know when the extra flights go on sale?

[TravelLeader]

Not at the moment, as I say the details were only sent to EY in MAN today seems will be an AM and PM departure every day to guarantee daily connection to all EY destinations. They realise that the lack of daily connections damages their saleability to the corporate market despite the fabulous product.

[Ringwayman]

The airport timetable is currently showing Monarch's ops as being 4 weekly to 28th March, 5 weekly from 29th March and daily from 4th May through to next March

[salsoul]

Hi Ringwayman, thanks for your response. I just looked myself and yes for the summer months it is daily (as I said 6 months of the year) but throughout winter it goes down to just 4x weekly from November and from December is just Monday, Friday and Sun which whilst great for the weekend traveller, is no use to me if I only need to spend a couple of working days there. I appreciate that this is mainly a leisure route but my question really was whether Ryanair could come onto the route.

I know Jet2 and BMIbaby have tried it in the past, and Easyjet wouldn't touch it with them flying the route from Liverpool. Ryanair though have talked about expanding Spanish routes from Manchester and I just wondered what people's opinion is as to whether this could possibly be a future route, particularly after the reuctions at Girona.

[MUFC_fan]

If FR make MAN a base BCN will feature.

It's just a matter of time...

[Betablockeruk]

Etihad now double daily on their website from 1st Aug. 2 x A332

[wanna_be_there]

So, now we have 6 flights to the middle east every day, lets just hope this growth is sustainable, as there seems to be strong rumours EK will add their 3rd daily by winter 2011 too!

[MUFC_fan]

Could the second A380/3rd daily flight (either one) be now on the back burner?

I'm sure EK have more lucrative A380 destinations than MAN...?

[wanna_be_there]

I'm sure EK have more lucrative A380 destinations than MAN


Its hard to tell with EK what they actually look for in an A380 destination. Those exact words were what people were saying before EK launched the first A380 service.

However, for cargo puropses, a new B773 frequency is needed, as adding just a 2nd A380 alone would eliminate all cargo from MAN, so, if they did add a 2nd A380, a new cargo route or 3rd daily would be needed anyway.

I can see the EK21/22 being added first, then the 2nd A380 next year personally.

[MUFC_fan]

Its hard to tell with EK what they actually look for in an A380 destination. Those exact words were what people were saying before EK launched the first A380 service.


Personally I think at the moment it's very much to do with publicity etc. MAN is one of their top performing destinations when compared to the services they offer. Not to add to the fact that the UK is such an important market for EK (OZ/NZ-UK is such a massive market for EK which they are slowly but surely taking from the likes of BA and QF.)

The A380 at MAN was the first 'regonal airport' in the world to get a commercial service got MAN, the A380 and in turn EK unbelievable press coverage.

I guess when you've got 90-odd on order and money in the bank the idea of picking your most lucrative routes early on it's really essential and using the plane as a PR stunt is.

Having said that I don't mean to take anything away from MAN! It's proved it can handle at least one A380 every day - most likely more!


I can see the EK21/22 being added first, then the 2nd A380 next year personally.


Completely agree - they need to now compete not only on capacity and price but also connectivity. The benefits of this would also include, as you say, extra cargo capacity which is severely needed for EK.

[TSR2]

I guess when you've got 90-odd on order and money in the bank the idea of picking your most lucrative routes early on it's really essential and using the plane as a PR stunt is

Good point.

[Skipness One Echo]

OZ/NZ-UK is such a massive market for EK which they are slowly but surely taking from the likes of BA and QF

I think that's already happened. Any growth now is a market growth rather than at the expense of multi-stop legacy offerings over London.
However I wonder of the Middle East descending into chaos might have an affect. Bahrain is already coming apart.

One of the issues is that they are dumping the smaller aircraft that might have been used to start a third daily flight. The small three class B777-200 fleet is already very busy, the two class B772s are pretty ancient now and the A330-200s are being sold on, two gone already hence it would be a third daily flight with a B777-300ER and that's a lot of seats. Hence on some days you would have an addition B777-300ER and two A330-200s to fill out of MAN. Interesting times.

[Ian Brooks]

Bahrain has been coming apart for quite a while now look at Gulf Air.
Remember 2 A332 is not a massive increase over a B777W only a 100 seats or so
for Etihad, it`s Qatar that are taking the big gamble but their loads have been very good
recently and I would guess they have taken a good look at the figures and recon
that they will make more money ex MAN than LGW as do Emirates


Ian B

[Skipness One Echo]

Bahrain has been coming apart for quite a while now look at Gulf Air.

Actually you're mixing up two issues. Gulf Air was surpassed when each state decided it needed it's own vanity flag carrier. Hence Oman Air.

The collapse of Bahrain as a state is part of the contagion sweeping the region. Last week the Kuwaitis took to bribing the populace with even more money.
Doesn't matter anyway, they're not there to make money. Different set of rules for EY and QR. EK however, contrary to first impressions, is a real business.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Following on from Skipness' comments, it does appear that public awareness of travel options from Manchester to Australia and NZ via the Gulf / Singapore is pretty good now. It was notable that the extensive advertising campaign promoting tourism to Australia tied in with plugs for Emirates and Singapore Airlines services. I personally have not seen any of these ads (in the Granada broadcasting region) tying in with BA or QANTAS.

Skipness' reminder about Bahrain is also timely. Whilst events in Libya are dominating media headlines for obvious reasons, issues in other affected countries have not gone away. Leaving the politics aside, we must remain mindful of the economics driving the oil markets. The intermediate term loss of Libya's oil is now fully priced in to the market. Algeria is a source of continuing worry as a major supplier to Italy and France in particular. In Bahrain, at least 30 Saudi tanks have been noted crossing the causeway into Bahrain to assist the existing government in keeping order there. Any concessions to the Shia protesters in Bahrain (and surely some are inevitable) are interpreted by the markets as increasing Iran's influence in the region. Meanwhile, Iran has unrest of its own.

Friday March 11th is a critical day to watch in the oil markets. This date is being promoted as a "Day of Rage" amongst discontented elements in Saudi Arabia. If this turns out to be a "damp squib" [no resulting publicity], easily contained by the authorities, the oil markets will breathe more easily. But if significant protests hit the headlines, USD$150/bbl+ oil could be with us overnight. Saudi Arabia remains very concerned about Shia unrest in the main oil-producing eastern province adjacent to Bahrain. One further brief point concerning Saudi Arabia. Whilst the country has promised to increase oil output to offset absent Libyan production, Saudi's output is predominantly heavy sour crude which not all refineries are equipped to cope with; Libyan production is the much more desirable light sweet crude. And of course, the jury is out regarding Saudi's actual ability to increase output in the real world; mega-fields such as Gharwar are long-in-the-tooth and declining. Desperate measures (chemical injections) are being used to sustain production levels from some older wells.

Please be assured that for the purposes of this discussion (prospects for airlines) I am focusing ONLY on the oil price and its implications for aviation. We all have our own private views concerning wars, oppressive regimes and minorities, but discussion of these does not belong here. Lets assume that our thoughts are with all those adversely affected, and stick to our own subject - air services.

So, looking ahead to Summer, the oil price remains the key concern for airline operators at MAN. Oil in the $110/bbl area is already a major headache for carriers, though many are hedged for the months ahead. Problems will arise if the oil prices remain elevated when those hedges need to be rolled over. Airline cutbacks based on fuel prices will affect ALL markets, not just services to politically troubled destinations.

Looking at specific markets for MAN, I think we can presume that LAA106/7 will be absent the schedules for some considerable time at best. In Tunisia, unrest continues; protesters consider the new presidential incumbent too closely associated with his predecessor and not the answer to their problems. Morocco has continuing issues too. Tour operators must consider not only foreign office advice in continuing programmes to these markets, but also their baseline profitability. Will public demand for holidays to these destinations hold up sufficiently to support profits? What about the potential cost of a repatriation from any affected country should foreign office travel advice change suddenly?

Egypt remains a tricky call. It was a massive destination for tour operators ex-MAN in 2010. Resorts such as Sharm-el-Sheik are relatively safe as heavily-protected "gated villages" well away from the main trouble spots. But the attraction of being able to sell excursions to the Pyramids, The Valley of the Kings etc. will be severely curtailed. With Egypt being so distant from MAN, fuel prices are a huge factor affecting IT programmes here too. A summer cocktail of high fuel prices, negative headlines, security concerns and possibly limited access to some historic tourist sites conspire against Egypt repeating its popularity of 2010.

Any positives? Well obviously destinations such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece stand to do well if they play their cards right. That means not homing in on the tourist industry as targets for their own anti-austerity disputes! But fuel prices (shorter air sectors) and a perception of being safe destinations will work in their favour this summer. Of course, reduced disposable income amongst the British holiday-buying public must be factored into thinking too. This will be a challenging season ahead for TUI, Thomas Cook and their brethren in the IT sector.

One final thought. Several years ago, major tour operators pulled their Cyprus programmes en masse based on perceptions that the country was too close to unrest in Lebanon at that time. The Cypriot government reacted decisively to protect its vital tourist industry, with the result that services to the UK by Cyprus Airways and Eurocypria were massively enhanced for a couple of seasons until the major tour operators returned in volume with their own metal. The success of this precedent could partially explain potential new services to MAN by Tunis Air and Royal Air Maroc which are rumoured to be under consideration. There is a vital tourist industry to protect, and if the major tour operators withdraw capacity in favour of other markets ...

All comments arising from this summary are welcome, but this time lets stick to oil price implications, tour operators and airlines serving MAN. We don't want to upset the mods again. Lets take it as read that we all have our individual views / sympathies concerning political regimes, protestors and war victims and leave them out of this discussion. With that understood, I continue to envisage a very challenging summer ahead for air services from Manchester Airport in particular and the UK generally. MAN has waited quite some time for the return of sustainable growth. Sadly, I don't think 2011 will be the year to reverse the trend. I'd love to be wrong on that one, though!

SHED.

[Seljuk22]

Next rumour is AI DEL-MAN and DEL-BHX.

Air India is likely to announce daily DEL - MAN flights and 3-4 weekly DEL - BHX flights soon. Departure times ex - DEL will be around 2pm.

Reply 14
Indian Aviation Thread: Part 92 — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net (http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5077500/#14)

[MUFC_fan]

Any positives? Well obviously destinations such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece stand to do well if they play their cards right.


Never heard a more true statement. Egypt and Turkey were revelling in the fact of a weak pound/euro exchange for the past couple of years and their tourism industries have piggybacked on it. Obviously this can all change now and as the £ begins to strengthen once again (likely to increase further upon interest rate hikes in the summer) the likes of Spain, Greece (a country that has suffered massively lately), Italy and Portugal can all regain taken tourism. Could we add Turkey to that list also?


This will be a challenging season ahead for TUI, Thomas Cook and their brethren in the IT sector.


I agree more short haul than long haul. As I mentioned in the Monarch thread - TOM and TCX have been putting a lot of money and efforts into their long haul networks, something that appeals more to the middle class in the UK. In fact FCA began this trend a number of years back. They now offer a top quality service and have prices to match.

It's common knowledge that those who have a decreasing disposable income would make everyday sacrifices before giving up with an annual holiday. The middle class have been 'warned' that they are likely to be the worst hit - TOM/TCX's target long haul customers.

Try to imagine a shift in passengers from the top of the pyramid (higher class) to bottom (working class). Those used to flying BA J/F to BGI or MLE (completely random examples) may now decide that they can no longer afford that luxury and move to TOM/TCX to the same destinations. Those who once flew TCX/TOM in 'Star Class' (or whatever TCX offers) may decide they'll go short haul or long haul standard and the list carries on.

However short haul for TCX, TOM, MON etc. is becoming so much more competitive with LS and now U2 creeping into the market place and the other problems associated with charter flying in Europe.

In conclusion I completely agree with Shed-on-a-Pole in regards to short haul but I can see long haul being not so much affect - I may be wrong!


Next rumour is AI DEL-MAN


Would be fantastic for MAN but I think the question there lies:

How much more traffic can MAN push out going East?

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

MUFC_fan

My thinking in omitting Turkey from the list was the potential effect of high fuel prices on the 4hr+ sector lengths required to fly there. This is also a factor affecting Cyprus and easterly destinations in Greece.

I agree with your remarks in general.

All the best. SHED.

[learjet50]

Manchester Airport // Fernanjet // Tight Seat

You all seem a little upset by my Reply to Manchester Airport s Question.

Firstly I Will not Apologise for my remarks as we live in a free Country I can reply and speak my mind as I wish.

Fernanjet Why was my reply Vile ??
I advised Manchester Airport that he should contact his tour operator and make this request not this forum which I would remind you is called

(Professional Pilots Rumour Network)

There have been numerous threads on this site before which have been removed by the Moderator as they were not be fitting to this Forum and in fact advised as I did to contact the Tour Operator or the Airline.

The second part of my reply advised him that on modern Jets the en route time was always within +/- 5-10 mins as most modern Aircraft used on Charter flight do approx the same speed.

Tight Seat

Re your remark about my Age why would I say I am 61 if I am Not seems a strange statement to make.

FYI I was born 5 July 1949 (if you want to put me on your List for a Birthday Card)

I Started work in Aviation in 1968 so I think I know just a little about the business.


Manchester Airport

I do have Manners I do not have Mannors

It seem all you use this site for is to find out what aircraft you are flying on as per your Post in 2009 re your flight to Monastir ,I Therefore must assume you are not a professional Aviation Person.

So After me wasting another 5 mins mins of my time I wish you all a good evening and I Confirm there will be NO Apology from I as I do not consider myself in the wrong

Good Night


Learjet 50

[mancairboy]

Anyone heard off an airline called strategic airlines ,have booked to go to Greece at the end of may should of been flying with Monarch ,have been informed today flight changed to Strategic Airlines,does anyone know who will handle them at man?

[learjet50]

Re your query re Stratigic Airlines

They are as far as I am aware the ashes that have risen from the Viking Airliners days

They have 2 A320 on Luxembourg Register I think

if you look on the Viking Airlines thread there is a lot of reading to be had



Regards

[MUFC_fan]

Manchester Airports Group interested in BAA airport disposals : Manchester Airport News Stories (http://uk-airport-news.info/manchester-airport-news-270211.html)

In other news...grass is green.

[Skipness One Echo]

the ashes that have risen from the Viking Airliners days

In which case let me know when they buy their first Viscount.....

[partyboy_uk]

I don't think Strategic Airlines are anything to do with Viking. A quick search on Google/Wikipedia will show you it's an Australian company that has charter operations. Monarch did not renew the contract with Olympic Holidays because the prices Olympic were paying did not match true current market values.

[MUFC_fan]

AI rumours are rife...

[Danny_R]

Mancairboy

From the Monarch thread, it would seem Strategic Airlines is an airline which had its French AOC revoked by the DGAC on safety grounds a short time ago, however they have since managed to obtain an AOC in Luxembourg. They appear to have managed to get some charter work from Olympic Holidays after Monarch and Olympic split ways.

By the looks of it, completely different outfit to the Oz airline mentioned.

[TURIN]

EK 3rd daily service from the end of the month, A330 morning flight. :\


I think the sun's got to em. Is there really enough traffic for 7 daily flights to the sandpit? :suspect:

[easyflyer83]

Interesting. Any link or source?
In Thailand at the minute and returning tomorrow on the EK19. Would have preferred an early arrival. Wonder how long it will be before it becomes a 777 of some sort.

[wanna_be_there]

EK 3rd daily service from the end of the month, A330 morning flight


If its similar to the plans Ive seen, It is:

EK21 A 0655 MTWTFSS B77W (3 class)
EK22 D 0925 MTWTFSS B77W (3 class)

Valid 01092011 to 29102011

EK19/20 also scheduled to be 3 class aircraft from that date, so to offer F on all 3 flights and reduce Y loads so to make the increse in capacity less drastic. 2 class HD B773 is needed on another route also, but EK have not specified which route.

[ek773]

:uhoh: This all looks very rosy for MAN and good luck to them, but is this major increase in capacity from QR, EY and EK really sustainable and the impact this will have on others carriers flying East.

[pwalhx]

Is it a major increase in capacity, EY is 2 x A330 which compared to 1 x 777 is an extra 100 seats or so. EK need more cargo capacity so maybe an increase in seats is offset by increased cargo carrying, plus I read that the 777 may have 1st class. QR are the one with the major capacity increase.

[MUFC_fan]

If EK go with a 3-class on all three flights the actual increase in capacity is lower than one would first think.

Currently:

EK (1xA380 + 1x77W) = 1026 + 852 = 1878
QR (1xA333) = 610
EY (1x77W) = 756

Total = 3244 per day

Prospective:

EK (2xA380 + 1x77W) = 2052 + 716 = 2768
QR (2xA332) = 1088
EY (2xA332) = 1048

Total = 4904

Increase = 1660 or 51.1%

That is on the understanding that Emirates go all F and Qatar/Etihad do not. If they do, it will be a lower seat increase but then again they still have to sell a significant number of J/F class seats.

Still a large increase but not as much as expected.

**Figures taken from Seatguru

I'm sure I heard that for the airlines to operate most effectively they aim for around 85-90% load factor on average. That way they're satisfying demand and not losing business. I may be wrong but I guess that with all three carriers struggling to meet demand, not just at MAN but across the globe, MAN should feel quite honoured that they're all focusing on this airfield as opposed to others anywhere in the world.

[TartinTon]

Monarch showing 2 x weekly Bodrum services. Looks like they've converted the existing Charter flight and added a 2nd frequency :ok:

[MUFC_fan]

Monarch has a great ability to just turn it's flight numbers between ZB and MON.

The charter customer won't know any difference.

[mickyman]

Call me Macheavelli but all this posturing at MAN could be
a ploy for the airlines to 'nudge' the government about the
3rd runway at Heathrow?

MM

[NorthernCounties]

Has anyone the privilidge to be partial to a bit of information regarding booking levels on the LDY-MAN service?

[MUFC_fan]

Manchester Airports Group profits fall; expects growth this year : Manchester Airport News Stories (http://uk-airport-news.info/manchester-airport-news-030311.html)


Mr Cornish also outlined his strategy for growth, pinning his ambitions on a focus on long-haul international routes to destinations in the US, the Middle East, Far East and India, as well as attracting more low-cost services.


He's certainly living up to his word so far...

[Bagso]

Does anybody know how the 7 flights that Manchester will have come summer 2011 compares to Heathrow ?

[EX_QR_SLAVE]

Third EK flight launching 1st of May. Available for booking now online.

EK21 3:00-7:55
EK22 9:40-20:00

Daily 3 Class 330-200 with 12 First, 42 Business and 183 Y

Totally of 1182 seats a day

26 First
160 J
996 Y

[MAN777]

There is plenty of talk of EK loosing cargo capacity after the introduction of the A380.

Can anyone answer what the different max (or likely) cargo loads are for the 3 types that will now be operating for EK ex MAN

Just interested thats all :8

[conti onepass]

Ive looked on emirates website, cant see new flights at all

[EX_QR_SLAVE]

Make a dummy booking from the 1st of May. Check by schedule not by price and its listed.

EK 19/20 is still showing as a two class 77W.

[mytravela330]

Third daily EK21/22 is now available to book online A332 F.seats

[conti onepass]

Yes got it. thanks

[Seljuk22]

From their print timetable:

B777-300, B777-300ER: 23,000 kg
B777-200, A330-200: 17,000 kg
A340-500, B777-200LR: 15,000 kg
A340-300: 13,000 kg
A380: 8,000 kg

The aircraft is capable of carrying app. .... kg of cargo in addition to a full passenger load.

B747-400F: 117 tonnes
B777F: 103 tonnes

[MAN777]

Thanks for that

So the talk was correct, the A380 carries approx 1/3 of the B777-300, thats a serious reduction !

[MUFC_fan]

I'm guessing that depends on flight distance, fuel as well etc?

I would have thought the 77L would be streets ahead of most but considering it flies on long distances I guess this is where it falls short?

Say MAN-DXB was flown with a full PAX load - surely the 77L could carry more in terms of weight? Or have I got it wrong? I probably have...:(

[MUFC_fan]

Etihad increase Manchester Airport flights : Manchester Airport News Stories (http://uk-airport-news.info/manchester-airport-news-060311.html)


The frequency increase illustrates how Etihad has firmly established itself in the north west of England and that we are now the airline of choice for business and leisure travellers, whether flying to Dubai or transferring through to destinations in the east, such as Australia, Thailand and Japan.’


I'm completely lost...How on earth can they say that?

[Betablockeruk]

Etihad Airways is to double the frequency of its service between Manchester and Dubai from August 1.

Major typo!!

[wanna_be_there]

New route:

Easyjet to Bilbao every tuesday and thursday from 28th June.

Flights not bookable on flight website, but are bookable on easyjet holidays section.

[jubilee]

WBT.

Flights are showing as Tuesday and Friday. Dep.Man. 16:06 Arr.Man 21:05
Arr. Bio 19:20 Dep. Bil. 19:55

Jubilee

[wanna_be_there]

yep sorry, was supposed to put friday, but for reasons even unknown to me I have put thursday. sorry.

[easyflyer83]

And it looks like HEL will be axed. A recent business brief mentioned that BIO, OPO and VCE were being considered but was surprised when I heard yesterday as I expected it in the medium term due to the programme being full this Summer. It would now appear that HEL is being semi replaced by the BIO. HEL, in the same brief, was also noted as not performing great. They certainly did well on sales mind and are quite popular amongst crew.

That leaves two slots in the programme by my reckoning.

[windshear12]

Only the powers that be have the answers but HEL out of MAN ends on the 13th of June. More money to be made elsewhere they think.

[A330ETOPS]

Any information on how the rescue workers are getting to
Tokyo? Has there been an ac chartered?

[Ian Brooks]

I think they flew out of Manchester last night on a chartered B767 of Euro Atlantic


Ian B

[Shrimps]

from the TAS Manchester (http://www.tasmanchester.co.uk/MAN_Reports.html) site:

EuroAtlantic B763 CS-TLO positioned in late evening as MMZ006P and left just under two hours later as MMZ006 bound for Tokyo carrying Aid teams etc to assist in the rescue efforts following the recent devastation caused by the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami.

[JackRalston]

Right guys, bit of an issue here.

Mate of mine is flying to HEL on the 4th July and returning 6th July with easyjet. As I've seen on the forum, people have said it's been cancelled and I tried booking on the website and it showed no flights available. It does say though that the new schedule for July onwards will be released in April.

Any ideas on what to do? Should be contact EZY and find out? He booked the flight about 2/3 weeks ago.

[Jamie2k9]

Easyjet are closing all routes from HEL in late June for MAN and LGW and early July for CDG. Give them a few days and they should e-mail custemers about the cancelled flights.

[wanna_be_there]

As Jamie said, all HEL flights are cancelled this summer, so, he will probably get an email next week.

At MAN, easyjet is replacing HEL with 3 weekly Bilbao and an extra flight to Mahon. There are still some gaps in the schedule for another flight/route, with OPO and VCE rumoured.

[Bagso]

Following link might be of interest, featuring 1 hour special on the airport last Monday.

BBC iPlayer - Manchester Business: Manchester Airport Special 07/03/2011 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00f2spm/Manchester_Business_Manchester_Airport_Special_07_03_2011/)

The link will probably go Monday so worth a quick listen

Well done MAG marketing...good PR !

[wanna_be_there]

so worth a quick listen



It certainly is, had a listen the other night, and was funny hearing Michael O' Leary calling MAN 'big bullies' haha.

Also, seems like Etihad is very happy at MAN, saying that they appriciate the fact MAN 'trusted them' back when EY were just starting up. Also seems EY are open to more growth at MAN too, which is always welcome.

[Bagso]

and coincidental that the Klarius MD when asked what route he would like suggested Bilbao, and then said but no chance of that .................:ok:

[Manchester Kurt]

UK Airport Provisional Statistics: 2011 - 02 | Aviation Intelligence | Regulatory Policy (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=11&fld=201102)

CAA figures showing Feb as +3.9%

[Skipness One Echo]

Anyone know when they're due for delivery? I hear they are going to both be MAN based on the VS076 / 075 for the first month until operations ramp up.

[markydeedrop]

Biman Outlines Ambitious Network Growth Plans :: Routesonline (http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/103907/biman-outlines-ambitious-network-growth-plans/)


Posted 15/03/2011


BIMAN BANGLADESH AIRLINES has confirmed that it still plans to resume services on the Dhaka – Manchester – New York JFK route this summer and has requested permission from UK and US authorities to extend its licence to serve the two markets. It is currently in discussions to lease a Boeing 777-200 or -200ER to launch the route from May and will then plans to introduce its own 777-300ERs from November or December when the first two of four aircraft it has on order are delivered. The national carrier has served New York since 1993, initially via Brussels and from April 2006 via Manchester, but suspended flights later the same month.
Alongside this route, Biman is also planning new links to Guwahati, Male, Milan, Paro and Sydney over the coming year, resuming flights to Guangzhou and Colombo and serving the Saudi Arabian cities of Dammam and Riyadh directly from Dhaka rather than on a triangle route.


http://static.routesonline.com/images/cached/newsarticle-103907-cropped-420x320.jpg

[HighFlyerGirl]

Skipness One Echo

You said: "I hear they are going to both be MAN based on the VS076 / 075 for the first month until operations ramp up."

I have been told the same by my brother who works in Ops.

[DomyDom]

Great news regarding MAN-BIO, just what is needed. Would be great to see also OPO/VCE soon. Hopefully they will materialise. Good move EZY:)

[mantug01]

Skipness One Echo

Anyone know when they're due for delivery? I hear they are going to both be MAN based on the VS076 / 075 for the first month until operations ramp up.

31st March 2011 into MAN

[spannersatcx]

VS 75 starts ops with the 330 on 2nd April, a/c will be positioned up anytime before then, no date fixed as yet. The a/c will swop over on a Friday, having positioned up the day before for at least the 1st month and will then revert to a W pattern as the 744's now do once a week.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Not yet noted on this thread, so here goes. FlyBe will drop the MAN-MSE scheduled service effective April 4th due to insufficient demand.

On another topic, very pleasing to see EZY replace an adequately-served route (HEL) with a vacant one (BIO). Lets hope they get a taste for launching unoccupied niche city routes. I have already made an EZY booking to BIO as a result, whereas my previous visits to HEL have been the preserve of Finnair. Now hoping for OPO to come online ... I'd certainly be making use of that one too. My very first flight as a nipper was MAN-OPO (the old airport) on a BEA Trident 3 - it would be nice to reacquaint myself with the city. (So yes, the rumours are confirmed ... I am over 100 years old!).

SHED.

[timboab]

Would you say it is 'guaranteed' that this will begin flights on the 2nd April??

[DomyDom]

Agreed it would be great if MAN-OPO comes off in addition to our new BIO route. Can anybody throw any light on whether this is likely to be announced for this summer as a HEL replacment (easyflyer83?) . Thanks, DomyDom

[wanna_be_there]

MAN-BIO is already the HEL replacement. All 6 aircraft are fully utilised now.

[easyflyer83]

No, Dommydom. The HEL have now been replaced by BIO and an extra TFS which means the 6 based aircraft in this Summer programme are fully utilised. OPO and VCE were/are being looked at but thats by no means a definite for them to be launched. Several routes over the last couple of years have been seriously looked at but, in the end, not launched.

[Mr A Tis]

....and of course they could be operated by non MAN based aircraft, so it's not impossible for 2011.
As others have said Bilbao is a welcome route and IMHO should have come before established destinations like HEL, GOT, AMS, HAM, & MUC.